Osbourne says no to currency union.

ernie_lynch – Member
…If Scotland votes yes and separates itself from the rest of the UK life for the people of Scotland will, I have no doubt, carry on pretty much the same – nothing terrible will happen.

Slowly, too slowly probably for people to notice as it happens, Scotland will fall behind…

Which takes me back to the question I asked earlier.

What characteristic of Scotland makes us incapable of running our own country for the benefit of our own people?

Well it’s a stupid question. The people of Scotland are just as capable as anyone else to run their own country.

Do you think how prosperous a country is depends on how capable its people are at running their country? FFS

Predicting the future for iS just involves stating which way you would vote
Perhaps rUK leaves the EU and all the multinational companies move to iS, leaving the rUK behind – no one knows for sure.

the people of Scotland will be every bit as dissatisfied with their government as everyone else in the Western world is

Possibly but it is hard to see a situation where they will be as dissatisfied with a government they VOTED for as they are with one they DID NOT vote for

I would happily wager they will like the govt they get more than the one they have imposed on them

I would further wager is you looked at opinion polls they like Holyrood more than they like Westminster as well

The (bullies at the) Univ of Stirling have yet to swallow the message

It is therefore not immediately clear whether, or in what way, an independent Scotland might be able to exercise a sustainable fiscal policy that would also drive a significantly different inequality path from the rest of the UK, or indeed from the rest of the EU

Junkyard – lazarus
…Possibly but it is hard to see a situation where they will be as dissatisfied with a government they VOTED for as they are with one they DID NOT vote for
I would happily wager they will like the govt they get more than the one they have imposed on them…

That says it better than I did.

I’ll come back to this thread in a couple of weeks to see how the fear, smear, and sneer campaign is going. 🙂

If Scotland votes yes and separates itself from the rest of the UK life for the people of Scotland will, I have no doubt, carry on pretty much the same – nothing terrible will happen.

Slowly, too slowly probably for people to notice as it happens, Scotland will fall behind. The promises and commitments that were made by the nationalists will be forgotten and ignored.

And, and this is the important bit, the people of Scotland will be every bit as dissatisfied with their government as everyone else in the Western world is.

Surely that is the “terrible” bit, well at least the very sad bit. People are being duped on the basis of flawed arguments, false promises and outright deceit.

epicyclo – Member

Which takes me back to the question I asked earlier.

What characteristic of Scotland makes us incapable of running our own country for the benefit of our own people?

Is it that you are a nation of drunks? 😕

In the meantime, you can come up we answers to Ernie’s basic questions.

Like Vladimir and Estragon, we are still waiting……

^^^ waiting for godot reference

Again no one can predict the future and you can easily create scenarios where iS thrives and where rUK flounders. Leaves EU , ends immigration, inward investment stops, stuff moves North to scotland, brain drain etc. Its not hard to predict doom but there are LOTS of ifs in both scenarios.
There are no facts here just guesses motivated by your own politics and view re union good or bad.

It is pretty hard to accept they will dislike a govt they vote for more than one they dont vote for

If Scotland votes yes and separates itself from the rest of the UK life for the people of Scotland will, I have no doubt, carry on pretty much the same – nothing terrible will happen.

Slowly, too slowly probably for people to notice as it happens, Scotland will fall behind. The promises and commitments that were made by the nationalists will be forgotten and ignored.

And, and this is the important bit, the people of Scotland will be every bit as dissatisfied with their government as everyone else in the Western world is.

I don’t see how the standard of living will erode,but with regards to government at least we will have more control over one we voted for,especially given the regular coalitions we have.And I wonder how life for ordinary working people in England will be by this point(the one bit of guilt I have in voting yes.)

Because while we won’t be much different England will be.
We will still be looking after our needy, frail and incapable, while yours will be victimised and starving to death. I suppose that solves the problem though.
We’ll still be in the EU, you probably won’t be.

Your anti-English sentiment is showing.

I refer to you why kids leave home when it wont be that much different costs more and involves fannying around.

Weird – are you suggesting that Scots are children living under the care and protection of their English parents?

Cherrypicking quotes again? The conclusion of that paper, in full:

An independent Scotland would gain access to a wider range of fiscal levers with which it could tackle inequality, notably around taxation and welfare spending. There is certainly scope for significant reform of the UK’s employment tax and benefits policy (Mirlees et al., 2011). These reforms could potentially include a restructuring of income tax rates and reliefs, and simplification of the benefits system to improve work incentives, and some such reforms could be structured to have redistributive effects.
There is some evidence that the Scottish electorate would be more supportive
of such reform compared to voters in other parts of the UK.

However, given that many of the drivers of inequality are linked to global trends in technology, trade, and family formation practices, there are likely to be limits to the extent that a small open economy can mitigate them. Scottish independence would provide opportunities, but it would also
come with constraints.

Doesn’t say quite what you’d like it to say does it?

But here’s a key point from earlier in the report:

The Coalition Government’s policy of welfare reform and benefit cuts is likely to reverse the trend of static (or declining) net income inequality

Which reaffirms what I was saying up the page- iScotland doesn’t need to implement change in order to improve things over the UK position. It just needs to stop implementing the radical changes of the UK. I don’t think we should settle for that, we can do better but the first step is just to stop doing worse.

Good news is that in the UK income inequality is already getting better. So first step (tick), economic recovery better than expected (albeit with rel weak foundations), inflation low, wages about to surpass inflation (despite on-going declines in productivity – sshh), labour market improving etc. Of course debt is still rising, banks are still weak and policy mix need re-balancing but at least we have all parties “committed” to real policies instead of the fantasies that Ernie noted. So who has made the genuine first step? Don’t worry, as noted above, the cold shower of reality will hit soon enough.

I am glad you are reading the stuff NW though, worth linking/referring to it. The point about the willingness of the Scottish population to accept greater redistributive policies is a good and valid one (despite the constraints on delivery). The other points about what needs to be done to reform fiscal policy are also valid for rUK. They are not Scotland specific. Let the higher candidates tackle NIESR as a little extra this weekend!

And I wonder how life for ordinary working people in England will be by this point

I thought you weren’t allowed to say England……shouldn’t it be “I wonder how life for ordinary working people living under Westminster rule will be” ? I mean it’s not like this is a Scotland verses England thing, is it ?

I do take your point though – the future for working people in the UK does not look rosy. At least not while the neoliberal consensus continues to exist. The problem is the Labour Party, or more precisely the lack of a mass party which represents the interests of ordinary working people. And the EU.

Scotland separating itself from the rest of the UK will not solve these twin problems and in fact will simply make the situation worse, for all parties concerned.

Although to be fair the nationalists are not claiming that they will tackle those problems – they simply fail to recognise them as being problems.

.

…but with regards to government at least we will have more control over one we voted for

Your politicians might be geographically closer but that’s as far as it goes they will be just as remote and divorced from the people they purport to represent as any other, and powerless. In fact even more powerless.

“As a minister, I experienced the power of industrialists and bankers to get their way by use of the crudest form of economic pressure, even blackmail, against a Labour Government. Compared to this, the pressure brought to bear in industrial disputes is minuscule. This power was revealed even more clearly in 1976 when the IMF secured cuts in our public expenditure. These lessons led me to the conclusion that the UK is only superficially governed by MPs and the voters who elect them. Parliamentary democracy is, in truth, little more than a means of securing a periodical change in the management team, which is then allowed to preside over a system that remains in essence intact. If the British people were ever to ask themselves what power they truly enjoyed under our political system they would be amazed to discover how little it is, and some new Chartist agitation might be born and might quickly gather momentum.”[/b]

Tony Benn (who incidentally was half Scots and supported Better Together)

teamhurtmore – Member

Good news is that in the UK income inequality is already getting better.

Yep, and bad news as per your link is that the Coalition are doing their best to reverse that.

As yet there is no evidence for that, but we shall see. In fact the evidence is exactly the opposite but I would hesitate to draw too much in terms of causation. But the ONS makes specific reference to coalition policies that have reduced income inequality especially at the lower end as well as external factors especially at the higher end.

BTW, NW as you have highlighted, always happy to post/link/refer to articles that challenge my views (eg NIESR) and those like the BOD that simply make me laugh (and cry).

Austerity is not a policy it’s an ideology. Osborne has confirmed this by stating clearly that it is not a temporary measure.

Good news is that in the UK income inequality is already getting better.

Do you really believe this? Temporary blips based on an economic crash are hardly evidence of changing the long-term trend.

BTW, NW as you have highlighted, always happy to post/link/refer to articles that challenge my views (eg NIESR) and those like the BOD that simply make me laugh (and cry).

Officially incomprehensible.

Perhaps they are just returning to old fashioned Keynesian economics – run budget surpluses in the good times and deficits in the bad times, if you believe that gov has a role in managing aggregate demand.

Tories and Labour are both now committed to delivering that rare beast – a budget surplus. Austerity is the means to an end, not the end in itself. The fact that we are needing to deal with a high deficit at exactly the wrong time in the cycle is another story altogether.

To deliberately misquote Blair, perhaps we are now all Keynesians? Or may be that’s just me half way through Skiddelsky’s tome on Keynes at the moment!

Grum, the fact that the poster neither reflects long nor short term trends was addressed yesterday on another thread.

I thought you weren’t allowed to say England……shouldn’t it be “I wonder how life for ordinary working people living under Westminster rule will be” ?

Well, I thought it better to make the distinction as we wouldn’t all be living under Westminster’s government, would we? I don’t see how having a Government making all the decisions in Scotland and with left of centre policies,as any Government in Scotland should really be based on the electorate, can possibly be as remote as the Tories and their pets are from us and our voting behaviour. As for Tony Benn, he was far too decent a man to support what better together has become. In fact as a nationalist,I am glad he couldn’t be the figurehead. 😉

Grum, the fact that the poster neither reflects long nor short term trends was addressed yesterday on another thread.

You’ll have to forgive me for not accepting you just repeatedly stating your opinion as any kind of evidence.

I appreciate that – hence the link to external sources yesterday. They can’t be trashed so readily (eg Harvard, ONS), always helps to have the facts on your side!!!

Cheery picked ones and Hubris 😉

Good news is that in the UK income inequality is already getting better.

What this means is we have all got poorer so the income inequality gaps have reduced. Its an artefact rather than a design. Any policies have been Lib Dem ones not Tory ones. I doubt anyone wishers to argue the Tories seek to make the world a fairer and more equal society via intervention and redistributive taxes.

Your anti-English sentiment is showing.

It was anti UK govt policies.

Weird – are you suggesting that Scots are children living under the care and protection of their English parents?

Wow your good with analogies aren’t you 😉
I am saying that folk value freedom even if costs them more money and the change is not radical or massive but you knew that …not your funniest comment nor my best [ or worst] analogy]

I appreciate that – hence the link to external sources yesterday. They can’t be trashed so readily (eg Harvard, ONS), always helps to have the facts on your side!!!

I seem to remember the link you posted said the exact opposite of what you claimed it did.

Well your memory must be failing you.

(Lib Dems are part of the Coalition if I am not mistaken, oh and according to ONS one segment has definitely not got poorer but I appreciate that this does not fit the narrative. I would link but lunch is more pressing and it’s fun to dig it out yourself)

Wow your good with analogies aren’t you

It was your clumsy analogy to begin with. If it backfired on you, you have only yourself to blame.

It is not the greatest analogy*, would you like me to say this again as it may well be my fault you failed to notice it first time 😉

Still not your best sarcasm [ nor mine] 🙂

* i think you got the point though

teamhurtmore – Member

Grum, the fact that the poster neither reflects long nor short term trends was addressed yesterday on another thread.

Here is the long term trend.

Today we have the same level of inequality between the wealthiest 1% and the rest of society as we did a hundred years ago. Thanks to the policies which have been pursued since 1979.

And btw that graph doesn’t just plot the fall and rise of economic inequality, it also conversely plots the rise and fall of trade union power and influence. Coincidence ? ………is it ****.

“Share of all income received by top 1%”

Dropped to an all time low throughout the sixties and seventies eh?

You mean the exact time when all the high earners pissed off abroad?

“‘Taxman’ was when I first realised that even though we had started earning money, we were actually giving most of it away in taxes. It was and still is typical.”

Look what happened when ‘Fatch lowered tax rates and they started coming back!

And to keep it on topic – I presume Scottish nationalist hero Shaun Connery is planning to come back and start paying his taxes under an independent Salmond?

I’m sorry Z-11, are you disputing how economic inequality fell in the early half of the twentieth century and then bounced back in the last 35 years ?

Or did you just want to make the point that Thatcher had been particularly kind to the super rich ?

The super rich still avoid paying taxes btw.

The super rich still avoid paying taxes btw.

But this is the very point, economic inequality never actually fell except on paper – the rich people were still rich, the poor people still poor – its just that the rich ones pissed off abroad so they didn’t get taxed and therefore didn’t show up on the statistics anymore, hence ‘inequality dropped’ !

Look what happened when ‘Fatch lowered tax rates and they started coming back!

Yes,drunk with power and with their numbers swollen the Tories set about selling the country to their mates and putting the working class into a position that they could do nothing about it. Is that what you mean? Cameron is just jealous because there is nothing left to sell except the NHS and education.

You do talk nonsense Z-11 🙂

The rich always avoid paying taxes. Nothing has changed in the last 35 years, apart from the fact that they’ve got even wealthier. Even the ones we’re supposed to admire like Richard Branson live in tax exile.

the rich ones pissed off abroad

Where did the writer of that song live during this period?

not your best scribble

selling the country to their mates

They must have had a lot of mates, two million people bought BT shares, 1.5 million British Gas, 1.5 million bought their council houses

Yes they let the ones daft enough to vote for them have the crumbs from the banquet.

Before shafting them.

So Grum, obviously no need to apologise 😉 but I hope Ernie’s graph will help you understand the LT trends this time, or is he talking rubbish too? And go back even further into 17-19C and II was even worse. In fact the late 60s and early 70s were more of an anomaly statistically than the norm.

Ernie, thanks for your version of the graph. But while II rose under Mrs T she cannot “claim” full responsibility, indeed nor can her party! Similar trends occurred under different governments.

And Scottish trends follow rUk very closely, so so much for being different. Of course the impact of NS Oil and it’s impact on £ didn’t help the transition from failing heavy industry in the 1970s. Oil is not always the bonus it’s is expected to be and imagine if the economy is even more exposed to it – perish the thought!

Next up – THM explains how black is actually white.