O&G folks. How are things?

Today’s announcement by BP not surprising at current $/bbl levels.

Are we now going to see a significant move to the end life-cycle of notable UK fields – decommissioning which will be an industry in itself – assuming monies available to do it of course.

Tough, very tough. I’m in Calgary and I’d say most people are working on the assumption of when, not if they get laid off. Barely a week goes by without someone I know (professional or personal capacity) loosing their job.

Short answer its crap, and yes I think there will be fields being decommissioned sooner than expected.

On the plus side there won’t be many calls for another referendum so every cloud and that…

Fair few rope tech mates who’ve been offshore for years are looking for work on the beach now, trips getting harder to find and the new 3&3 for less money means it’s starting to be less pay than us onshore guys get.
Kinda glad I stayed dry now…

Crap as you can imagine. Been expecting this since the last round finished mid 2015. The headline number for the North Sea (BP) is not quite as dramatic as it sounds but still a fair chunk of folk will be getting the axe..

Two of my cousins have been made redundant in the far east but one is still working I think in the accounts department, for how long I don’t know. 😯

Down the road in Chester the oldest anti fracking camp has just been raided by hundreds of police and enforcement officers, Fracking is the way to go , cheaper, environmentally freindly, cheaper workforce and job creation, the last bit is a load of crap propogated by the fracking companies to persuade /bribe local councils to allow this horrible thing to happen.

Problem is we all want fuel and not energy efficency and higher charges for diesel and petrol.

Yep its a worldwide oil bust. Nowhere is getting by unscathed at the moment. I doubt very much that you will see widespread decommissioning projects announced unless things are still as bad this next time next year. Plus they are not a quick fix. Decommissioning takes a long time.

Currently i still have work. NDT / Rope access. But as said earlier i too am working on the assumption that it wont last much longer and i am currently setting plans in motion to move on from the industry. For how long depends on how long it takes Saudi to blink and how long it takes investment to kick back in again.

So so. There is work signed up but slow to materialise. West africa and turkmenistan mostly.

Just rolling with it atm. Not much i can do. The mrs is employed in different industry at least!

Did Figure shell and bp shares were worth a punt at current prices as a long term 5+ year investment though.

The shares are worth it for the dividend alone but who knows how long that will last. It’s a bit of a Mexican standoff at the moment to see who blinks first, cuts the dividend while the other majors watch to see how the market reacts and backlash on the share price..

Thats for sure juanking how ever no counting on dividends for reasons as you say.

Aren’t Shell destroying their share value with the BG deal though?

I think you might see some FPSO’s mothballed/decommissioned but the fixed assets won’t happen quite yet.

Bad, but could have been worse. I’m sticking to it as there could be an up turn soon [ha! deluded fool – Ed]. In the end the countries that are forcing the current low price cannot continue to do so.

Its destroyed because of that imo- and the uncertanty of the deal. The benifits f thedeal go shell getting the bg facilities in regions at a significant reduced cost over puttin their own facilities in them countries where they have production but no plant

Will it stay depressed either way over 5 years. I believe not hence my punt.

Agreed Ratty.

*Below is my response to thread last week*

The mantra for most large oil companies is RRR, Reserves Replacement Ratio which basically put is replacing/finding what your producing. Typically that is normally expected to be 100%+ however now (for some) it’s bumping around 60-80% so in the longer term that is not sustainable. Most exploration/wells not already in the process of being ‘executed’ are shelved for the time being and companies are focusing on well work/interventions. This is a much lower cost way of trying to enhance/optimize what you already have as opposed to exploring to find more.

Add all of these things together then once we start to see even a gradual improvement in emerging markets or a ME conflict or a change of tack by OPEC then things could very easily spiral to $200+ in the next 2-3 years when due to the lack of investment now means supply can’t keep up with demand.

Had a couple of guys come in to witness some testing I was doing before xmas, they both said they had to half the amount they charge in the last 6 months to keep the work coming in.

e start to see even a gradual improvement in emerging markets or a ME conflict or a change of tack by OPEC then things could very easily spiral to $200+ in the next 2-3 years when due to the lack of investment now means supply can’t keep up with demand.

😯

Some grim forecasts in this http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

I’m sure there was an SNP politican from Aberdeenshire on telly last week saying that our oil industry is booming and there is no slump so I’m not sure where they are getting that from.

environmentally freindly

😆 Troll of 2016 so far, I salute you.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fox-creek-fracking-operation-closed-indefinitely-after-earthquake-1.3400605

“I’m sure there was an SNP politican from Aberdeenshire on telly last week saying that our oil industry is booming “

And he was just about hung drawn and quartered for that ….

Are Russia willing to support OPEC?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12100609/Glimmers-of-hope-for-oil-as-Russia-poised-to-slash-output.html

Things are going rubbish here. And I am not solely oil and gas industry. I have been working on new props ed pipelines in edge if europe/ Asia for last 4 years or so and my last project changed into construction phase and have been without work mostly since Sept.

Things look fairly grim from where I’m standing. The shop floor at my work is like a ghost town compared to 2 years ago. Been plenty redundancies, but there’s only so much cost reduction you can do by punting people…

And he was just about hung drawn and quartered for that ….

Ah was he, not surprising, he must have read too much of his own referendum propoganda!

But of a bump really to see how everyone is getting on. Managed to get through the winter ok but absolutely dreading my next trip as things are becoming pretty intolerable now. Very nearly picked the phone up and called it a day. Can’t see me lasting much longer to be honest.

How so Mac,have working conditions changed or is it the mood offshore?
Just curious,I used to do a bit of rig work.

I finish on Tuesday.

It is what it is.

Bought a house last year so the war chest hasn’t had chance to recover either.

Applying for anything and everything, but seemingly so is everyone else. Hopefully with a bit of temp work or anything else I’ll eeek out my crap redundancy payout until the green shoots of a recovery start to appear (or I get lucky).

Add all of these things together then once we start to see even a gradual improvement in emerging markets or a ME conflict or a change of tack by OPEC then things could very easily spiral to $200+ in the next 2-3 years when due to the lack of investment now means supply can’t keep up with demand.

That’s the assumption here too, $200+ giving another boom until investment catches up, before falling back down to the more normal ~$80.

off shore the mood is terrible.

last trip i did – we(as in the whole crew) got a roasting off the OIM at safety meeting for giving the chef crap for being shit.

Then went on to talk about how the chefs budget was being cut further – anyone slagging him off on the back of it would be subject to disaplinerys……

mate sent me a photo last night of what looked like a tea bag roll for tab nabs at 10.30 – it was a bacon roll from morning break reserved) telling me of having to pay to call home again and such like.

As far as my work – things seem to be picking up (lower completions) to a degreee – how ever they are tenders won on the race to the bottom so feeling the pinch in terms of tools and personel allocated to the projects

Im being pushed onto an international contract on rotation to keep working or risk redundancy proceedings – as thats where the work is – the good news is although the regions a bit pants as far as terms of work its going to be back on the tools rather than applications/paperwork/meetings

celebrating every month we get a pay cheque/i dont punch someone but i cant see either lasting for ever tbh.

significant numbers of my mates have been laid off though of late.

Just sat in on a round of interviews for a couple of vacancies in our group, about half of the applicants were people who buggered off to Norway to do onshore oil work when SAAB folded. Apparently not massively uncommon across the company. Last in, first out and all that.