Le Tour – Stage 12 – Up and over again?

Starting with a stat, By the end of the stage today the riders will have climbed about 10km in 2 days.

Give it a go over a week
Amass the elevation of 9366m – the total altitude of all the major cols the pros will climb over two stages this year in the Pyrenees – and receive a commemorative Rapha roundel.

http://pages.rapha.cc/rapha-rising-2015

The «Big Five» in the jungle
It gets harder and harder every day in the Pyrenees. With just one big climb to start with after the rest day in Pau, a light uphill finish in Cauterets after climbing the legendary Tourmalet, stage 12 is the queen stage of the first block of mountain. The first difficulty is the col de Portet-d’Aspet where a tribute will be paid to Fabio Casartelli twenty years after his tragic death. Col de Core and Port de Lers will take their toll before the expected big fight between the top guns. Chris Froome is ready to defend his yellow jersey and the important advantage he has already built for himself. Vincenzo Nibali’s acceleration on the way up to the Tourmalet has evidenced that the losers won’t easily surrender. Tejay van Garderen, Nairo Quintana and Alberto Contador haven’t yet accepted the idea that the race is over. The “Big Five” remain wild animals, prompt to leap on their prey. Shall the race leader have any weakness, the face of the Tour could be changed. The 195km race is so long that it’s also another opportunity for long lasting attackers. The likes of Christophe Riblon can be suspected to be willing to go away from far out. It’s time for some teams to make it up for the lost illusions. AG2R-La Mondiale already can’t repeat last year’s success on GC with Jean-Christophe Péraud second and Romain Bardet sixth. At least they have bagged a brilliant stage victory with Alexis Vuillermoz at Mûr de Bretagne but some other teams are under pressure to perform somehow and not leave the Tour empty handed.

So another big day, going to be tough again for the sprinters after their quick go at 20km they will be engaging survival mode for the rest of the day.
Well if survival includes tucking down to get 3 figures on the GPS

Always a little bit pleasing to see the other side of 100kph…. This was following Michal Kwiatkowski down Tourmalet. – Cav

As for predictions it’s a summit finish again, money on Froome & Porte to take some more time out of the others or will the other 4 come up with a way to work together. I’m not expecting to see a big group with the leaders by the time we hit the last climb. How many seats are needed in the sag wagon?

As for yesterday nice and quiet and finally the break got it, Dan Martin just seemed to have missed the moves and put a huge effort in for second.

Rafal Majka giving Saxo something to smile about

Just not his tour is it

Borrowed a jersey from a mate

Back in the Jersey he owns

RANK RIDER RIDER NO. TEAM TIMES GAP
1. GBR FROOME Christopher 31 TEAM SKY 41h 03′ 31”
2. USA VAN GARDEREN Tejay 61 BMC RACING TEAM 41h 06′ 23” + 02′ 52”
3. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 51 MOVISTAR TEAM 41h 06′ 40” + 03′ 09”
4. ESP VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 59 MOVISTAR TEAM 41h 07′ 30” + 03′ 59”
5. GBR THOMAS Geraint 39 TEAM SKY 41h 07′ 34” + 04′ 03”
6. ESP CONTADOR Alberto 41 TINKOFF-SAXO 41h 07′ 35” + 04′ 04”
7. FRA GALLOPIN Tony 71 LOTTO-SOUDAL 41h 08′ 04” + 04′ 33”
8. NED GESINK Robert 131 TEAM LOTTO NL – JUMBO 41h 08′ 06” + 04′ 35”
9. FRA BARGUIL WARREN 82 TEAM GIANT-ALPECIN 41h 10′ 15” + 06′ 44”
10. NED MOLLEMA Bauke 141 TREK FACTORY RACING 41h 10′ 36” + 07′ 05”
11. ITA NIBALI Vincenzo 1 ASTANA PRO TEAM 41h 11′ 18” + 07′ 47”

How long can Geraint keep it going?

RANK RIDER RIDER NO. TEAM POINTS
1. GBR FROOME Christopher 31 TEAM SKY 57 pts
2. AUS PORTE Richie 35 TEAM SKY 40 pts
3. POL MAJKA Rafal 45 TINKOFF-SAXO 32 pts
4. COL QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 51 MOVISTAR TEAM 32 pts
5. NED GESINK Robert 131 TEAM LOTTO NL – JUMBO 28 pts
6. IRL MARTIN Daniel 167 TEAM CANNONDALE-GARMIN 27 pts
7. BEL PAUWELS Serge 218 MTN-QHUBEKA 26 pts
8. ESP VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 59 MOVISTAR TEAM 24 pts
9. FRA VOECKLER Thomas 129 TEAM EUROPCAR 23 pts
10. GBR THOMAS Geraint 39 TEAM SKY 22 pts

This one could change today especially if the right guys get into the break.

Sky to be working really hard this stage and Froome to be isolated relatively early I reckon. He’ll then look like he’s suffering badly before smashing it/losing a couple of minutes to Quintana. One or the other…

Still hoping that Bertie can do something, but realistically I can’t see it happening. Be good to see someone take a couple of minutes out of Froome, if only to make it more interesting in the days to come.

This is Valverdes stage I reckon. I know the GC lot won’t let him go off on one and make a break but I think he’ll be the best of a compact GC group and punt off the front. His kinda stage, his kinda hills, his kinda finish.

However, I still love a break, yesterday I predicted Kruj’sie for a punt but he never materialised, Gesink was the the star in LottoJ, but today if Kruj’sie fancies it and has the legs I’ll go for him.

Not too sure about a French rider, seems all of FDJ are blown out, AG2R are diminishing daily, Europecar have Rolland which when on form he’s excellent but currently I think pacing himself, Cofidis have a couple of guys but don’t seem willing to back them other than letting Van Bilsen scuttle off..

So, if it’s a break then Kruj’sie, if not it’s Valverde.

Best I’ve got for today 🙁

That last climb is going to really break the field… Quintana to take get back on level terms today..

Contador is cooked IMO – medium-rare already 😉 . Needs to break his leg and rest up for Spain.

Breakaway day, surely ? Hopefully make it stick (again). My boy GENIEZ FTW !

Quintana up to 2nd. TJ to grind in just holding 3rd from <booooo!> Valverde.

I’m going for a Quintana win today.

A bit more added detail from the always excellent Inner Ring:

The Route: the profile pic says a thousand words but let’s add have some more. The race starts across the Comminges on its way to the Portet d’Aspet, listed as 4.3km at 9.7% in the roadbook but that’s just the steep part, the approach road rises up with several sections at 5-6% to make things harder. There will be a sombre moment as the Tour climbs past the Fabio Casartelli memorial.

The Col de la Core is next, a typical pass of the Ariège with its cheese dairies at the foot and fine views higher up. It’s easy by itself but it’s all going to added up.

Next up is the Port de l’Hers. Port is a local word for a mountain pass and this is another scenic climb – look for the lake – with several sets of hairpins. It’s followed by a fast descent that’s awkward, instead of obvious sharp bends the road tilts left and right and at speed it’s hard to know when to brake. Then the road opens up and rides on into Tarascon.

The Finish: there’s a flat approach on the valley, the race turns onto a side road and, just like Alpe d’Huez, the road rears up right from the start. Unlike the other climbs of the day with their narrow roads and varying gradient the road to the Plateau de Beille is a much more regular climb with a wide road, albeit narrowed by the fans. It’s hard though, relentlessly at times as it climbs through woodland and only eases just before the line by which time the race is above the tree line.

And lunge’s hugely inaccurate predictions are:
I actually think this will be quite a boring and attentional stage. There will be a break that won’t stick, it will contain a Europcar rider and it will likely be Rolland. I think we’ll have a very small, select group together on the last climb, Quintana, Froome, Porte, probably Valverde, possible Contador and Van Gardren. Quintana and Froome will both attack and someone will take 30 second max. I’m torn as to who I want to gain these 30 second, I’m really warming to Froome yet Quintana attacking would keep the tour alive a bit longer. Sod it, lets go against all logic and put Contador down for the win.

Oh, and very sadly I think this may be the stage that ends Geraint Thomas’s GC ambitions, I’ve just got a feeling he’ll blow up today.

TJVG for the win, simply to boost my chances in the Velo fantast game.

Looking to keep my constant presence in the top 5 of the STW league 8)

In case it’s a dull one and also the cricket is on the key moments should be about.. (BST I think)
12:20 Col de la Core (1 389 m) Climb (Cat 1)
13:50 Port de Lers (1 517 m) Climb (Cat 1)
14:30 Leaving the Valley for PLATEAU DE BEILLE (1 780 m) (HC)
http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2015/us/stage-12.html

*DISCLAIMER* – I have no idea what I’m talking about

Astana to lead the early pace again. Movistar to up the ante in a bid to get Quintana away, with Dowsett featuring heavily in a similar manner to G. Sky to pull back but not quite make it.

Well I’ll probably be in meetings all day and then am out this evening so no highlights. Because of this I suspect it will be a superb stage full of cut and thrust drama with an unlikely winner and huge GC ramifications.

I’m in meetings all day too..

#smartphoneantics

Just looking at the third stage photo, was Richie Porte on the pies night before last and needed a breather on the way up??

Rachel

I don’t see anyone’s fortunes changing really so I’ll predict
Froome-Quintana-Porte-Valverde-Contador-Thomas

Ohh, first three meetings cancelled..

Now I can concentrate properslike.

😀

Did you poison them or something bikebouy!

Interesting to hear Froome is considering the Vuelta again, I’ll wait and see how he is at the end of the week before I call him the favourite but fark me, who’s going to touch him?! Sorry, it’s a very cycling thing to do discussing the next race before the current has even ended but, well, this race could be over!

Porte to blow up spectacularly as he does, as he looked like he was struggling at times yesterday. Personally I think if anyone else wants to win the Tour then today is the day to start pulling time back as I’m expecting a Sky to be fairly weak today.

I think I’ll record the live stage today, the hardest decision is Phil & Paul or Carlton & Sean 😆

I’m really hoping for a Quintana/Froome 1-2 to really help my fantasy team, and if Nibbles would get his finger out that would be fantastic 😀

If G carries on rocking it he’s going to approach chuck norris status.
legend

I’m really hoping for a Quintana/Froome 1-2 to really help my fantasy team, and if Nibbles would get his finger out that would be fantastic

Have you got Quintana, Froome and Nibali? You can’t have had much money left for anyone else!

I’m (Once again!) hoping for Quintana to take a few seconds of Froome today, just to spice it up a bit. It’d be nice to see Sky show some weakness, just once, to give us a glimmer of hope that the race isn’t over yet.

Actually though, despite not really being a fan of his before this tour, I’m becoming very fond of Froome. Perhaps because he’s more relaxed or a bit more confident in front of the cameras now, but I do hope he does well and wins. Next year I may even pick him over Quintana in my fantasy team.

A breakaway over the earlier Cat 1 climbs will take a few minutes out of the yellow jersey group. Movistar will try and put pressure on Sky on the second cat 1, the Port de Lers with Valverde trying it on on the descent.

Sky bring it back together by the bottom of the Plateau de Beille with one or two riders in the breakaway still a couple of minutes up the road. Sky then take command and it’s a repeat performance of stage 10 with Froome winning the stage and taking more time out of his rivals.

Will be an interesting finale. If Quintana is ever going to stick it to Froome then today’s probably his best chance. Think it’ll play out as forzafkawi suggests though.

Have you got Quintana, Froome and Nibali? You can’t have had much money left for anyone else!

Yes, I thought Bouhanni would smash it in the sprints and was relatively cheap. Boy do I regret that, why oh why did I not go with Sagan and drop Nibbles. I thought it was a climbers tour this year so thought it best to go with more climbers. Shows what I know 😆

So, apart from me you’re all going with the Faves right?

Awe c’mon, shirley there is more talent in there than Froomi’dge and Quinty?

Ok, so I’ve gone with Valv’ but only if the GC lot are trying to unclip each others number pins.. But stuck my neck out and gone for Kruj’ise in a break..

What about Buchmann? What about Wyss? what about Vouly? even (cough) Pinot? or and get this.. Krusinger (sp) if Bertie lets him go..

Eh?

Right then, how about Ten Dam wins it from out of the break but not before smashing himself up on an item of road furniture and only just scraping over the line a bloodied, dribbling, broken mess?

I’d like to see is some of the second tier GC riders putting in a dig for time. Maybe Matthius Frank trying to get into the top ten* or Sepulveda trying to pick up a few places.

*Though he’d probably be marked.

Inner Ring reporting that Vinokourov has told Nibali to find a new team for next year. I’m sure that will do wonders for his motivation.

Needing a new job tends to be a good kick up the arse.

So, apart from me you’re all going with the Faves right?

Stage has got big GC day written all over it. Anyone thinking of making back some time on Froome today is going to want to make the stage hard and fast to the final climb. Really can’t see a break getting enough time to hold on.

Inner Ring reporting that Vinokourov has told Nibali to find a new team for next year. I’m sure that will do wonders for his motivation.

Vino sounds like an egotistical idiot. Who’s he going to replace Nibali with? Can’t see many wanting to join his toxic team despite the paycheques on offer. Aru may be on the way up but he’s not a proven GT winner.

I don’t understand what’s happened to the Yates brothers in this Tour. Simon was right up there on all the climbs of the Dauphine and Adam nowhere to be seen whereas the reverse seems to be the case here so far.

Unless they’ve done the usual twins trick and swapped clothes to confuse the media!

I’m predicting Simon to show in the breakaway today as just maybe he has been saving himself thusfar.

Unless they’ve done the usual twins trick and swapped clothes to confuse the media!

[Cynical comment that should be in the doping thread]
One of them is juiced up and the other one goes to piss twice
[/Cynical comment that should be in the doping thread]

Now that is a strong break!

In the break at 6 mins from the peloton…

Lieuwe Westra, Jakob Fuglsang (Astana), Matthieu Ladagnous, Jérémy Roy (FDJ), Gorka Izagirre (Movistar), Michal Kwiatkowski (Etixx), Romain Bardet, Mickaël Chérel, Christophe Riblon (AG2R), Jan Barta (Bora), Bryan Coquard, Romain Sicard (Europcar), Kristjian Durasek (Lampre), Dani Navarro (Cofidis), Sylvain Chavanel, Jérôme Coppel (IAM), Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha), Frédéric Brun, Anthony Delaplace (Bretagne-Séché), Louis Meintjes (MTN), Georg Preidler (Giant), Sep Vanmarcke (LottoNL-Jumbo)

Shame to hear that Dowsett is struggling today.

Great break. Fuglsang up the road seems like a real snub to Nibali.

Oh I hope this one sticks 😀

Well my prediction for Kruj’sie is going right down the chute innit what with that break formed. 🙄

Dunno why I bovva.

Well akchewally I do..

Not surprised Vino’s had a word with Nibbs, I mentioned in yesterdays thread he’d do it, said Fuglsang and Aru would remain and Sagan to Astana too.. Then some sort of weird transfer of Nibbs to Tinkoff with Bertie taking a back seat before he retires next year… Nibbs feels lonely and wants to distance himself with the Astana furor just before this kicked off.

Ya read it ere’ folks.

Sagan to Astana, that’d be a big 🙁

Dowsett has just abandoned, another 🙁

lemonysam – Member

Great break. Fuglsang up the road seems like a real snub to Nibali.
Depends – sometimes the commentators suggest they send a helper out in the break to make sure they can help their team leader on the last climb. I’ve never really seen it work though. They always seem to be knackered.

Astana going for stage wins now surely. I would be astonished if Nibali could pull something out the bag on this stage. He’s probably thinking about next season (or possibly vuelta) already.