Is May about to call an election?

Also fwiw I predict reduced SNP share of the popular vote

Agree. They did so well last time they’ll do well to match it. I’m quite pleased, they’re a bunch of cocky **** and even the smallest reduction will make it look like their trajectory is down and take them down a peg or two.

Hope the media choose to go after TM because of the debate thing.

They might try but it’ll be a bit lame – there’s been enough in the media about this in 2015 that the public are well aware a wise incumbent shouldn’t ‘do’ a debate because debates favour the challengers.

i’ll have a couple of quid on the ultra-coalition of Lab/LD/Green/PC/SNP to handle the (already lit fuse) Leave negotiations.

jus cos eh.

kimbers – Member – Block User – Quote
hmmmmm

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-cps-considering-charges-against-over-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses

I allueded to this a few pages back, she’s on the run. 20 byelections? No way can she take that risk with a 17 majority.

You know, I wouldn’t really mind all of this if the media would actually dig into the truth- this a a govt with a slim majority, facing criminal proceedings, consolidating their position. This is not some Brexit-consolidating move. Why would anyone even believe that?

Not some, masterly, catspaw move from an adroit politico- she’s doing this to distract and disarm, but most importantly- because she has to, not because she wants to.

Chewkw isn’t the only one with a crystal ball so……..
Tories win with significant majority; labour hammered – fail to win any seats but have many losses; libdems up; ukip fail to win a seat and lose support; snp lose a few seats.
Corbyn out – probably losing his seat; reputation in tatters – think michael foot.
Labour in the outer darkness for 10 years as a ‘united’ party or it splits into moderate and momentum factions – if that happens, wave goodbye to any credible opposition.
Miliband D returns to the fold in 2 or 3 years as putative leader – kier starmer to oppose him; tom watson stays as deputy.
Broadcast media stop using IDS – i associate him with IBS.
Much anguished discussion on STW.
UK becomes more introspective in short term and GE obsessed while trump, kim, xi, putin, tusk and others are focussed on the really big picture(s).
My prediction could be totally ar** about face. Not long to wait.
I mis/dis trust almost all politicians but we’re stuck with them – like double glazing salesmen.
Loving all the mud-slinging by minority parties.
I’m not a tory – just a realist.

because she has to, not because she wants to.

DO you reckon the media have failed to mention that? The tiny majority has been discussed repeatedly today and since the election.

I suspect the line on the debate will be “May is too scared to have a debate and yet asks us to trust her in negotiations with Brussels – when she isn’t even up to a TV debate”.

Real or not that argument, re-written by far better scribes than I, could potentially hit May right on the strong leader card she’s been trying to play.

Strategy 101 – attack their strengths not their weaknesses.

Why is May doing it?

I thought the suggestion that it removes the 2019 to 2020 backstop to negotiations and allows her to extend was an interesting point.

Also if as some predict negotiations do not go well, it gives the Tories another two years to try and salvage something.

But my own view, is that May is fundamentally a principle free political opportunist who will say anything to cling to power but can’t resist a 20 point lead in the polls. And why not if all you want is power.

OOB why does “tiny majority” remind me of trump?

Give them both a “hand”. 😉

Actually the fact that a tiny majority and a number of police investigations underway does suggest political expediency might have been in play.

Get another GE underway before her majority finds itself in the clink.

And finally for tonight, I’ve met a good number of MPs over the years from Salmond and Steel, to Hendry and Cooper, and in my worthless opinion most, particularly the backbenchers, are honest people trying to do a good job.
Give me 650 people at random and I’ll give you few baduns.
But overall, they could be far worse.

My local MP on the other hand… well the GE can’t come soon enough.

Most politicians are opportunists, not conviction politicians.
They see an opportunity which will benefit them and they go for it.
This is May looking to kick labour into the long grass.
It is tribal politics in it’s most traditional form.
All the noise about brexit is a side issue – nothing more than a distraction.

Of course – it wasn’t a particularly serious suggestion. It does highlight the somewhat pointless nature of the Fixed Term Act though. Because if Labour will vote in favour of a GE given the current polls, then it’s hard to imagine a situation where the opposition party would vote against one. Of course this does mean that the most interesting result of the Act is that it gives the PM an opportunity to get the turkeys on the other side to vote for Christmas – unless something very unusual happens it is not at all in Labour’s interests to have a GE now, yet they’re going to be thronging that Aye lobby with enthusiasm, probably including plenty who will not only be losing their jobs as a result, but who know they are about to lose their jobs.

make voting compulsory, like with a fine and so on for not doing it.

lets see the real face of the UK……..

For my thoughts on why

Firstly the obvious and cynical combination of things can only get worse and Labour are in a mess.
Regardless of any kind of media hate campaign he just can’t express his views in any way that engages with enough people.

Mandates and rebels
In reality she doesn’t have one, leaving the EU is one thing hard brexit is a long way from what most people will be comfortable with. She needs to get the weight of an election behind her to keep her own troops in line, if you were voted in under her leadership you can follow for 5 years
Without there will always be threats of leadership challenges

Risks?
40-50 seat swing from Tory to Lib Dem
UKIP returning to safe tory seats

%vote is one things, where those people matter is the other, with a majority of less than 20 some targeted campaigns could unseat a number of freshly won seats especially where Remain voted higher than a Leave member

Youth vote – mobilise it and make a change

bigrich – Member
make voting compulsory, like with a fine and so on for not doing it.

lets see the real face of the UK……..
Considering the number of seats won by “Did’t Vote” it would be

and following up after some more time to think.
Labour have a chance to kick start their campaign today.
The following needs to be asked:
What has changed since A50 was sent?
Why does the PM feel she no longer has a mandate?
Why has the PM reduced the already tight negotiation time by 2 months?

They could even gain some concessions in return for their votes such as a gaurntee that May will appear on a TV debate.

The devisions on the EU still run deep within the tory party, I expect a lot of disapline issues with senior MP’s contradicting the policy to save their skins, the chances of them presenting a united front during a campaign are slim.

Why has the PM reduced the already tight negotiation time by 2 months?

She hasn’t really – as some analysis has already pointed out she’s extended the backstop by two years in practical terms.

They could even gain some concessions in return for their votes such as a gaurntee that May will appear on a TV debate.

I don’t think she can say no without looking weaker than she already does. Someone who is going to have to do the most difficult negotiations in at least a generation but isn’t tough enough to do a debate with Corbyn et al?

“I don’t think she can say no without looking weaker than she already does.”

The opposite. Incumbents only debate when they are desperate and willing to take a gamble – like Gordon Brown.

Not debating shows she doesn’t think she needs to make the gamble. If she joined the debates it would be a sign she was in trouble as it was with GB.

True it suits her to avoid as many questions as possible, turning up exposes the lack of plan, direction and cohesion within her party and means people can challenge the unity (Do as I say) BS she is pedalling.
Strong performances from the others with an empty lecturn dismantling Brexit/Tory facts would harm her.

As much as some of these events are TV spectacle the chance to put a leader up there to answer questions they don’t want to where they can’t hide should be applauded and the lessons of Trump learned from.

mws +1

The only time an empty chair has done better than the incumbent was the tub of lard on HIGNFY all those years ago

TV debates are American garbage. They need to go in the bin.

make voting compulsory, like with a fine and so on for not doing it.

lets see the real face of the UK……..

Please dont, my sister has voted once in 10 years and that was just to cause trouble. #brexshit

torsoinalake – Member
TV debates are American garbage. They need to go in the bin.

How do you propose to ask the leaders questions they don’t want to answer?

The CPS are now saying 30 MPs being investigated regarding the Election Expenses thing?

The CPS are now saying 30 MPs being investigated regarding the Election Expenses thing?

They aren’t.

You can’t make voting compulsory without providing a party choice for everyone.

I can see the Lib Dems being the big winners from this. A lot of people seemed to switch from Lib Dems to Tories last time just to avoid having Corbyn in power (rightly or wrongly). This time we all know there’s no chance of that and people are generally pissed off at the Tories so I can see many voting Lib Dem in order to have some sort of opposition.

I would laugh if the Tories end up losing their majority (they don’t appear to have learned the lesson the calling for a risky vote on something can have consequences), sadly it’s unlikely to happen.

This election is about two issues, Brexit and Austerity. And Brexit was mostly about a single issue, uncontrolled (or at least perceived uncontrolled) immigration. However now the ‘soft’ Brexit appears to be we sign up the free movement of people anyway how many people that voted for Brexit last time would vote for ‘soft’ Brexit (vs no Brexit) this time?

If the Lib Dems grew some balls and stood on the promise of ending Brexit I actually think they could challenge the Tories but it seems they’re afraid of the all those that voted for Brexit in the first place and aren’t willing to gamble everything on immigration being the main issue so are just backing a ‘soft’ Brexit now.

I’ve never voted Lib Dem before but if you gave me a choice between Lib Dems (no Brexit), Tories (either soft or hard Brexit, depends if May has a hidden agenda) or Labour (I don’t even think they know themselves what they want) then I’d vote Lib Dem. I think I’d regret it if they actually got into power and it came to forming a government to run the country effectively but hey if the US can give Trump a go we may as well have a laugh to before the world goes down the toilet.

FuzzyWuzzy – Member
You can’t make voting compulsory without providing a party choice for everyone.

Spoiled ballot, it’s quite simple works over here in Oz can’t see how it wouldn’t work

lets see the real face of the UK……..

I think we do, those who don’t vote, don’t care. Seems about right.

No wonder May is scared of a TV debate, skewered on R4 just now!
Emphasising trade over breaking from ECJ and FOM

It won’t matter she’ll still win it, even with 30 Tories ( not all of them are MPs, some just party fall guys) potentially under investigation.

She’s obviously being helped massively by the right wing press who want to crush all those who dare question Brexit

I think we do, those who don’t vote, don’t care. Seems about right

And no party feels the need to represent them either, goes both ways.

Now wonder May is scared of a TV debate, skewered on R4 just now.

All she did was repeat the same mindless, meaningless platitudes we’ve been hearing all along. Brexit means Brexit. I’m not expecting that to change during the ‘campaign’ such as it is. It looks like we’re just going to get endlessly repeated soundbites, which basically amount to ‘trust me, and don’t you worry your pretty little heads over the detail’

No wonder she doesn’t want any debate! Theres no substance to any of this. Its either one of two things:

1) They genuinely haven’t got a clue what they’re doing
2) They know exactly what they’re doing. They’re going to **** us! But they don’t want the detail of exactly how they’re going to **** us to see the light of day until its too late!

Neither is a particularly appealing prospect

On R$ I did like Nick Robinsons paraphrasing the famous Mrs Merton question “what was it about the 20% lead in the polls that first attracted you to the idea of a general election?’

Obviously the Maybot didn’t get the reference.

A lot of people seemed to switch from Lib Dems to Tories last time just to avoid having Corbyn in power (rightly or wrongly).

In a parallel universe they might have, not in the UK. Go check your facts on who was Labour leader at the last G.E. and then get back to us.

I swing wildly between an Australian compulsory vote system and one where voters must pass a test that shows an at least basic understanding of politics and current affairs for their vote to count. Far too many people vote based on crass ignorance or unthinkingly on family/community tradition. Far too many voters could give you a more eloquent and reasoned appraisal of their football team’s defensive squad options or why a particular person should be voted off X factor than they could give to their choice of where to put their cross. I don’t care which way they vote I just want them to do it based on knowledge and reasoning.

I heard some chat on the radio that Heir May “decided” to call the election whilst out walking with her husband over the weekend.

I can just imagine it now, her, her husband and 60 SAS protection staff yomping/goosestepping down a footpath in deepest Chilterns..

I heard it too and it made me swear out loud at the radio. No content, no answers, no conviction, pure opportunism and lies.

The other parties can’t win, surely they must see that. The only potential I can see they have to prevent a Tory majority is to form a coalition (or for moderate Labour MP’s to defect to LD or a new centre-left coalition-party). But there are supposedly too many ‘differences’ for that to happen, yet if they can’t set those aside it’ll truly be turkeys and Christmas, Labour will be decimated, LD will gain seats but nowhere near enough to affect things, and we get May and her odious cronies for the next 10 years.

The odd thing is that there is a core of Brexit voters that will probably find voting Tory to be anathema, and I hope they’re just too stupid / stubborn to see that voting for UKIP again will be a wasted vote and potentially risk dividing the Tory support. Alternatively Nuttall doesn’t put candidates up in those areas to avoid splitting the vote and UKIP dies on its arse. Neither of which would make me sad.

@bikebouy Snowdonia

@theorherjonv my parents voted Leave, they are lifelong Labour supporters but usually vote Lib Dem as only they can unseat Tories in Hampshire. This time they will not vote at all, can’t bring themselves to vote Tory but 100% will not vote Lib Dem due to their stance on EU

I wonder what came to her in that thought that she didn’t know a few weeks ago.

It does highlight the somewhat pointless nature of the Fixed Term Act though

It highlights that the name of the act is pointless.

The act still serves a purpose, even if only in principle, in that the decision to call an election is now in the hands of parliament and not solely down to the PM.

I think everyone in the UK should do this test (or similar)

https://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

I did it this morning because I had no idea who to vote for, and I was quite surprised at some of the results (not the BNP and UKIP coming in the bottom two though)

Sadly it appears my principles are most represented by the SNP. I don’t think they’re running for the Cannock Chase seat, but I does help me understand why I want to move to Scotland so badly.

TV debates are a joke, soundbite poltics at their worst. Sturgeon’s “I can make you PM” line to Milliband made him look very weak and was a key weapon in Tory campaign as SNP are despised South of the Border. Emails/press from Tories once again are focusing on a Corbyn PM propped up by the SNP as the result you’ll get by not voting Tory.

Debates are poison for incumbants, that’s why Blair avoided them.

It does highlight the somewhat pointless nature of the Fixed Term Act though

Not at all, the 2/3rds majority clause has always been there