Is May about to call an election?

Shame they dont call it tomorrow, everyone knows who they are going to vote for anyway I expect.
I am enjoying the tears from the lefties/remoaners/commies/socialists though, most entertaining.

Clearly not the Tories are up 4% since election was announced.

Yvette Cooper spanked May at PMQs today, tbf is not hard, you can see why May is so scared of a TV debate, even corbs would best her!

What is the weather like on Planet Kimbers ?

TV debates are appalling, no upside for those ahead in polls / in-power. As I said that’s why Blair refused to do them. He knew how to win and it’s not by doing TV pantomime.

I am enjoying the tears from the lefties/remoaners/commies/socialists though, most entertaining.

Is it just me who automatically assumes that someone is a moron the moment they use the word “remoaner”?

Is it just me who automatically assumes that someone is a moron the moment they use the word “remoaner”?

No, not just you.

Kinda makes me think of English footy fans abroad, ruling of the waves, you’ll never get Gibraltar… etc…

Is it just me who automatically assumes that someone is a moron the moment they use the word “remoaner” “Brexshit”?

FIFY

TV debates are appalling, no upside for those ahead in polls / in-power. As I said that’s why Blair refused to do them. He knew how to win and it’s not by doing TV pantomime.

yeah who wants to see a crazy old guy debating with an empty chair?

its kinda been done before

http://jontrott.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/clint-chair-borowitz.jpg

and still Mays scared!

as for the weather- its been raining ever since the oldies voted for BREXSHIT 🙂

I like the whole “debates are bad for the incumbent”. That’s not a reason to let them avoid them, that’s a reason to make them do it. You know what else is bad for the incumbent? Elections, being held to account, opposition, playing back interviews of them saying things they’ve totally u-turned on. Tolerating politicians avoiding things just because they might work out better for the other guy is not a good idea.

That said, TV debates are bollocks.

“debates are bad for the incumbent”. That’s not a reason to let them avoid them

…but it *is* the reason incumbents try to avoid them.

TV debates are appalling, no upside for those ahead in polls / in-power.

Only if you’re in danger of being found out as a big liar liar pants on fire.

Jamba is correct that May will wish to run away from any real debate because there is only downside for her. She is scared that she can only lose in a debate

But she can’t appear to be scared and running away.

Difficult one. 8)

so digging through the UK history of election debates and the claims it’s bad for the incumbant.
There have been 2 years 2010 and 2015, 2010 Brown could have handed out fifties and still lost that one. It wasn’t the debate that lost the election, it was however Clegg who probably pushed it to colaition.
2015 Did Milliband stand a chace and how did the incumbant fare?
In US debates it’s much harder to tell as a lot of times it’s 2 new faces.
So where is are the stats backing up the claims?

She’s also in the position of having to defend Brexit , leaving aside the fact that every analysis still says it will damage the country.

Realistically there will be compromises, the many fantasies spun to Brexies about what it would deliver are obviously impossible to realise, May knows all of this sbd she knows the rabid right wing press will shred her if she fails to deliver. its why she wants an election asap and why she’s been obsessed with having as little scrutiny as possible.

I don’t expect there will be many cyclists who normally buy nice shiny toys to vote Conservative, given how much bike equipment has gone up since that joke of a referendum last year, especially Shimano (thanks to to the exchange rate of GBP).

So where is are the stats backing up the claims?

I doubt there would be an meaningful stats because we don’t run ‘control’ elections to check.

So yeah, maybe rather than saying “debates are bad for the incumbent” we should probably say: “debates are generally considered bad for the incumbent”.

Logically you can see why the might be. The incumbent has been doing all the unpopular stuff people in power have to do & has a record in government to attack. Plus the presence of the leader gives little known candidates a massive media platform they wouldn’t otherwise have.

Bit of light reading:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/why-incumbents-lose-presidential-debates/442344/

I doubt there would be an meaningful stats because we don’t run ‘control’ elections to check.

So yeah, maybe rather than saying “debates are bad for the incumbent” we should probably say: “debates are generally considered bad for the incumbent”.

Going back through was it the debate that lost it? The UK has very little history of TV debates, as said in the US it’s quite different but you have 3 who went on to lose the election from ’76 the others won.

Yes it exposes the incumbent to be held to account and asked about their record and so it should it’s what we are judging them on.

Plus the presence of the leader gives little known candidates a massive media platform they wouldn’t otherwise have.

Which of the leaders of the major westminster parties should not be represented. Con/Lab/LDem/SNP seem a fair bunch to be debating the issues of the day and where they see the UK going if they have control. All of these will have party political broadcasts etc.

There will be a big push by the media to have a debate – audiences to amass, soap powder to sell.

But that does not make them a good idea, especially for May.

They favour double glazing sales(wo)men – those that can give glib answers, play the room and deflect any question. It would suit BoJo, Cameron or Blair or a bullshitter like Yvette Cooper, May is a different and, I think, far better leader – she is one to quietly get on with things, to take the evidence and make a decision. You can see this during her tenure at the Home Office – it used to be permanently in the news in the form of “Home Office screws up XXXXX ( again )”. She neither sought the spotlight for what she did, nor did she have the spotlight turned on her – she was efficient and stopped the culture of cock-ups.She quietly did a better job than any of her predecessors in recent history.

She already is prime ministerial, she has nothing to prove or gain in this game, the others can drag themselves up towards where she is, she can only lose.

And ultimately, these debates tell very little, other than who can talk the most bull, completely deflect a simple, straight question. The media might, for their own reasons, want these debates, but I certainly won’t miss them.

Party political broadcasts don’t generally attract follow-up media coverage or set social media ablaze. TV debates are much more likely to set the news agenda for days afterwards, and the ‘I Agree with Nick’ meme gave Clegg momentum and changed the election result.

The other problem with a debate is that there is no obvious three-party dynamic any more, so the debate will be more cluttered with different regional agendas and you end up with the PM potentially given equal billing to the likes of Paul Nuttall.

So there are no benefits to a serving PM, and plenty of risks. Which is why she is resisting it, and the other parties seem rather more keen.

You can see this during her tenure at the Home Office – it used to be permanently in the news in the form of “Home Office screws up XXXXX ( again )”. She neither sought the spotlight for what she did, nor did she have the spotlight turned on her – she was efficient and stopped the culture of cock-ups.She quietly did a better job than any of her predecessors in recent history.

You what?

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/theresa-mays-record-home-secretary-isnt-reassuring/

was it the debate that lost it?

a) It doesn’t matter. Even if a debate costs votes, the candidate might still win.
b) As you say, we don’t have the data to know.

So there are no benefits to a serving PM, and plenty of risks. Which is why she is resisting it, and the other parties seem rather more keen.

This.

Someone who thinks debates favor the incumbent has to explain why every party leader involved is arguing counter to their own interests.

Cranberry – I agree with Mike. May has a long association with cock-up in my mind – all her dealings with Europe since becoming PM for example. All she has done is strengthen the divides in the UK and unite the EU against us with her actions.
She’s already challenging CMD for worst PM ever.

As for debates, all the May / Brexy supporters are telling us on here is why it is rational for her to be scared of debates and run away. But this is the individual we are about to ask to do some very dangerous negotiations – I don’t want someone who runs away when it’s scary.

You can see this during her tenure at the Home Office – it used to be permanently in the news in the form of “Home Office screws up XXXXX ( again )

Waaaaaaat, cranberry are you trolling, no one could be that misinformed/deluded ??
The home office was a shitshow under May,

Off the top of my head….
Several broken pledges to reduce immigration (non EU and EU)
Go home van cock up
Passport issuing disaster
Border control delays that left 1000s delayed at airports
Her reputation among the police after her attempts at reform and managing cuts is horrendous , go ask a copper if they will be voting for May ,!
Getting the date wrong for appealing to the ECJ against the high court ruling saying Abu qatada couldn’t be deported, surely the most humiliating though I’m sure there’s plenty more

May is a different and, I think, far better leader

That depends on your viewpoint, doesn’t it? How you define ‘good’.

To me, a good leader is one that finds compromise to keep most of the people happy. May has done the opposite – pressed through with her own agenda that has just enough backing, and basically **** everyone else.

I cannot see how that will not blow up in our faces in years to come. It means that half the country is bitter and resentful of her actions. People still resent Thatcher 30 years later. Is that the legacy of a good leader? Maybe if you think half the country are moany ****, it is.

As for debates, all the May / Brexy supporters are telling us on here is why it is rational for her to be scared of debates and run away. But this is the individual we are about to ask to do some very dangerous negotiations – I don’t want someone who runs away when it’s scary.

I’m not a May or Brexy supporter <shakes fist>

Equally, you could say that you don’t want someone negotiating for you who will fall into an obvious trap…

May (or Crosby) will doubtless have balanced the relative risk of running away from the debate vs doing the debate. I’m sure she has factored in the small number of people who would have voted Tory but might not due to this issue.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m not sure that you were teetering towards voting Tory but have been swayed by the debate issue… 🙂

Equally, you could say that you don’t want someone negotiating for you who will fall into an obvious trap

It’s not a trap, is it? If you can’t hold your own in a debate, you’re in the wrong game. You can’t call it a mendacious trap if people just want to hold you to account. She’s a politician ffs.

@cranberry, do you have any actual dealings with the home office? Your review there is pretty much absolutely the office of what you’ll hear from anyone I know that works with them- she institutionalised incompetence as a useful tool. For me personally it’s visa clearances and holy shit, I could go on for days.

Martin – not aimed at you specifically.

As for me, I’d vote for anyone I trusted to go to Westminster and oppose firstly Brexit and secondly hard Brexit.

I live in a (presently) Tory constituency, held by a Brexy. He is pretty much lobby fodder – I doubt he chooses his underpants without checking with the whips first.
And where you can see any individual thought he comes across as a homophobe authoritarian.

Being a Tory is probably one of his lesser sins.

But yes, I’m a champagne socialist (though technically more of a Bordeaux / Bourgogne socialist – give me a decent red any day) so unlikely to pick a Tory as my first choice and May as an incompetent reactionary religious zealot of an authoritarian is a easy person to dislike.

“Equally, you could say that you don’t want someone negotiating for you who will fall into an obvious trap…”

Indeed.

Given the choice between a brave decision and a considered evidence based decision I’ll take the latter.

Other people will feel differently, that’s why we have elections.

Holding a Brexit Referendum was a very courageous gamble. Not sure everyone agreed that makes it a good decision.

And perhaps it would be worth waiting to see what each group propose and which ones look like they could work together.
At least you know to expect the opposite of what may promises

It’s not a trap, is it? If you can’t hold your own in a debate, you’re in the wrong game. You can’t call it a mendacious trap if people just want to hold you to account. She’s a politician ffs.

Politics is about the art of winning, not the art of debating, so yes, she is a politican (ffs). Cameron agreed to the debates, and to the referendum, because he wasn’t a very good politician.

She’s not calling it a trap. I am. Because for her, it most likely offers her no advantage and plenty of risk.

I live in a (presently) Tory constituency, held by a Brexy. He is pretty much lobby fodder – I doubt he chooses his underpants without checking with the whips first.

You on the IoW too?

York Outer. Check his voting record. Not a nice man.

Apparently May visited Bolton today and got the welcome she deserved from a gentleman who waved at her while not using all of his fingers…

She really can’t open her mouth without lying:

“It’s great to be here in Bolton, fresh from the House of Commons, fresh from winning a vote in the House of Commons, which has approved my decision to hold a General Election on 8 June.

Look, I’m quite proudly from Bolton, but I’ve never found the experience “great”!!

Do we know what kind of brexit mandate Chairman May is looking for yet ? the right wing press seem to think it’s ultra hard yet the city seems to think it’s kind of soft.

Klunk – Member
Do we know what kind of brexit mandate Chairman May is looking for yet

Depends who she is talking to.

Do we know what kind of brexit mandate Chairman May is looking for yet ?

Does she even know?

Changes her mind a lot…

I don’t think she has a clue what she’s doing.

party political broadcast on behalf of the Tory party

See what you mean igm.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24853/julian_sturdy/york_outer/votes