Greek election – extreme left won

Hi Ernie *waves*

Arguing about comparative working hours is all pretty pointless really. We are where we are. How we got here is academic. Though the words ‘single currency’ should suffice.

The point is that In one corner we’ve the newly elected Greek government who have only one mandate. To renegotiate the terms of the bailout. Or magic away their debts. In the other corner we’ve got the German electorate, who want their billions back. Behind them, in Brussels, is the real power in Europe who simply can’t countenance any shift in policy to Greece, because of the precedent it will set. They just cannot let that happen! Under any circumstances!

So the aims of the two are totally incompatible, and neither can compromise. So there is no good outcome . Theres not even a least worst option really. Not if you’re Greek anyway. They’re ****ed! Well and truly! I suspect they’re in for one hell of a reality check once the initial post-election euphoria has passed. Which should be sometime about…… now!

What happens after the new saviours fail to deliver? Which they surely will. Who knows?

Welcome to the next exciting instalment of the Eurofarce economic roller-coaster money-pit! Brought to you by the usual clueless, monumentally incompetent suspects in Brussels

Anti-austerity is very popular as many voters want the ability to walk away from past debts to not pay the price for past excess, to effectively get something for nothing.

Here you go again with your blaming the victim. How many times does it have to pointed out that the debts that are currently being shouldered by the Greek people, and all the horrific consequences of them have been forced on them through no choice of their own, while the people who created the situation through their own corruption and greed have escaped scot free.

jambalaya – Member

to effectively get something for nothing

Or to stop paying for the something that someone else got.

No no no no ! The benefits of all this borrowing were the Greek people, rank and file ordinary people. That’s exactly the point. It is their responsibility.

Did anyone see Channel 4 News, Peter Snow interviewing the expected to be finance minister. Syriza the money had “gone down the drain” and Peter Snow pointed out, “yes its gone down your drain”. It’s the Greeks who have spent it.

jambalaya – Member

No no no no !

I really hope you were stamping your feet when you typed that. Jambalaya Bott.

Most of the bailout money has gone servicing debts. Doesn’t it make more sense to rebuild and reform the economy so they can pay their own debts rather than saying it’s ‘bailing out’ but actually tipping most of the water back in the boat?

Presumably not only the figures released by the OECD for Greece are unreliable but also the ones for Germany which places the Germans second from the bottom in terms of hours worked……did the Germans exaggerate how little they work ? Or are they just not very good at providing statistics?

Which is exactly the problem. You want to latch onto the one statistic you found which shows the Greeks as the hardest working in Europe – however that’s just one statistic for a country and organisation that we know the statistics were fiddled with. What I’m saying is that there doesn’t appear to be anything to back up the statistics you used (on Greece or Germany) and in fact other statistics cast doubt on the ones you’re using.

If you want to continue on with your argument then that’s of course fine – but it’s typical conspiracy theory nutter behaviour to pick up one stat or piece of info that happens to support your theory then run with it.

I’ve never been to Greece so have no axe to grind one way or the other on how hard working they are. I have lived and worked in Germany (and in other European countries) though and those OECD stats doesn’t seem to match what I was seeing. I know nothing about what the OECD’s agenda is or how they get their data – although I did notice that the info for working hours didn’t have a consistent source for all the countries included.

No no no no ! The benefits of all this borrowing were the Greek people, rank and file ordinary people. That’s exactly the point. It is their responsibility.

You really have a warped view on the world don’t you. I accept that some ordinary people benefited. But as I’ve said repeatedly, they weren’t ever given an alternative option or a choice. You criticise them for being irresponsible for accepting the ‘benefits’, but there was no mechanism for them not to, and no reason for them to think it was necessary because the politicians, the very same people whom you now support, were telling them that it was all ok and there was nothing to worry about. So in any rational or objective appraisal, you can’t say that the people themselves were responsible.

Apologies if this has already been covered in this thread, but with such high unemployment in Greece, how come we haven’t seen more young Greek workers appearing in the UK?

I know a few.

jambalaya – Member

No no no no ! The benefits of all this borrowing were the Greek people, rank and file ordinary people. That’s exactly the point. It is their responsibility.

Especially the ones that weren’t born.

Or the ones of working age who have never claimed benefits or (obviously) pension.

dazh – Member
Here you go again with your blaming the victim. How many times does it have to pointed out that the debts that are currently being shouldered by the Greek people, and all the horrific consequences of them have been forced on them through no choice of their own, while the people who created the situation through their own corruption and greed have escaped scot free.

It doesn’t matter how many times, it’s whether this is accurate. The consequences are not the debt per se (jambas is correct on the positive side of that), they are (1) the unsustainable levels of debt and the policies required to deal with this ie austerity and (2) locking yourself into a fixed exchange rate – massive internal wage deflation and/or unemployment. The two together create immense pain that unites the (far) left and right.

Of course, the solution that the Greeks won’t and have voted for is a pipe dream and cannot be delivered. Sadly….

Or to stop paying for the something that someone else got.

@Northwind do you see the irony in that statement, the top 1% of tax payers in the UK pay 30% of the taxes, many people pay taxes here for services they will never get. We discussed this earlier it’s a national debt incurred in the interests and for the benefit of Greece not least to pay the wages and pensions of the public sector. The national debt of every country is assumed by future generations, it’s no different in Greece. The living have an obligation to the unborn, if they chose to leave them a mountain of debt that is sad but a financial fact of life. Syriza want the tax payers of Germany, France, Spain and Italy to pay 50% of their bailout off immediately whilst the Greeks pay off the remaining 50% over many years. It’s nonsensical, how do you think the tax payers of those countries feel about that ?

You really have a warped view on the world don’t you.

@dazh, I say again its strange eh how my view is absolutely consistent with that of governments around Europe who I believe strongly represent the views of their populations ? See my point above about the tax payers of Europe.

On a separate note it’s startling to see the anti German stance of Syriza, their leader describing Germany as being the “Fourth Reich” and making the point of departing from tradition in not laying a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier but placing one at a memorial for 200 communists murdered by the Germans in WW2. A deliberate positioning of Syriza and Greece against the German oppressor. Very dangerous.

jambalaya – Member

@dazh, I say again its strange eh how my view is absolutely consistent with that of governments around Europe who I believe strongly represent the views of their populations ?

Well they voted Tony Blair a peace envoy so

he { tony Blair] was officially confirmed as Middle East envoy for the United Nations, European Union, United States, and Russia

There you go that must be right and the will of the voters.
Its still an appeal to authority – why are you using a fallacious argument to prove your point?

who I believe strongly represent the views of their populations

Is there even an EU govt with 50% of the votes cast never mind the electorate?

FWIW I think we would all agree the EU is considerably keener on integration than the population.

I say again its strange eh how my view is absolutely consistent with that of governments around Europe who I believe strongly represent the views of their populations

Like I said, it’s a warped view. Considering the events of the last 30-odd years I think you’d struggle to claim that western governments represent the views of their populations. I’m no conspiracist, but you seem to have a naive, and blind faith in the probity, integrity and motivations of the people and institutions who govern us.

binners – Member

Hi Ernie *waves*

Arguing about comparative working hours is all pretty pointless really. We are where we are. How we got here is academic. Though the words ‘single currency’ should suffice.

Well of course. Someone suggested that the Greeks spent all their time in coffee shops and that it was no wonder Greece was “bust”.

Quite why the Greeks should suddenly have become lazy at the same time as the single currency was introduced wasn’t explained.

I suggested that there was no evidence that the Greeks worked any less hard than anyone else and that the introduction of the Euro had much more to do with their financial woes.

Although bizarrely epicsteve accuses me of, quote : “typical conspiracy theory nutter behaviour” for suggesting such a thing 🙂

who I believe strongly represent the views of their populations

In this instance I was referring the stance not to allow Greece to walk away from euro 120bn of debt at their expense. Perhaps we should look for an opinion poll in Germany with the question of “do you wish to see your taxes pay off Greek debt”

@ernie, yes the introduction of the euro allowed Greece to borrow in a way which was impossible before. It’s the reason Greece wants to stay in the euro because if they are not they will have very little borrowing ability.

All a bit tongue in cheek from me posting this but here is the famous open letter the tabloid “Bild” published/sent to the Greek PM

Dear prime minister,

If you’re reading this, you’ve entered a country different from yours. You’re in Germany.

Here, people work until they are 67 and there is no 14th-month salary for civil servants. Here, nobody needs to pay a €1,000 bribe to get a hospital bed in time.

Our petrol stations have cash registers, taxi drivers give receipts and farmers don’t swindle EU subsidies with millions of non-existent olive trees.

Germany also has high debts but we can settle them. That’s because we get up early and work all day.

We want to be friends with the Greeks. That’s why since joining the euro, Germany has given your country €50bn.

I didn’t see this before, Bild published another letter 2 years ago in Greek which seems prescient. I wonder what they are saying today.

Dear Greeks,

You are a proud people, a proud nation. Sunday you have yet another set of elections. You say: We’re free. Bild says: It’s in your hands. There is a difference.

If you did not want our billions, it would have been fine by us for you to vote for any leftists or rightist clown you wanted. But for over two years now, the situation is like this:

Your ATMs continue to give you euros, only because we put them there, the Germans and the other nations that have the euro. Yet you still, calls us Nazis, which we do not fine funny. But anyway.

But let’s be clear on this: If the elections are won by parties that want to put an end to austerity and reform, breaching every agreement, we will stop paying.

The agreement was: you fix your country and meanwhile we will help you. If you do not want this anymore, then we do not want it either.

It’s in your hands. You have elections Sunday. But you have no options. You will choose between painful logic and complete disaster. And we are very much afraid that you don’t get that yet.

Yours in friendship, Your Bild.

Link: Bild publishes insulting letter to Greek voters

I think the Greeks are totally entitled to vote for a party that will end austerity measures. The problem is they probably believe they will continue to get money no-strings. They may, but it’s a pretty ballsy bluff to try.

Surely the Germans of all people should be aware of the danger of forcing an impoverished country to pay off debts it can’t afford? It didn’t work out too well in the 1930’s.

yes the introduction of the euro allowed Greece to borrow in a way which was impossible before.

And who was it doing the lending? The Germans have to accept some/a lot of responsibility for this. It was they who allowed them to enter the Euro on a fraudulent basis. At the very least they didn’t conduct proper due diligence, more likely they knew full well they were cooking the books. It was German banks doing the lending, and German industry who then benefited from the resultant consumer spending spree. It was the German govt who vetoed mechanisms which would have relieved the pressure on ailing economies early in the crisis, it was Germany who vetoed any move to offer joint euro-wide debt and bank guarantees, and it was Germany who refused to allow ECB support for ailing euro economies. Is it any wonder some in Greece are now comparing Germany to the 4th Reich?

Every other stat that came out of Greece appears to be tainted so I don’t know enough about where this one came from to know if it’s also suspect. OECD aren’t likely to have directly gathered the information themselves.

Fair enough Lets just continue on the basis of the observations of someone who once went to Greece and saw someone in a cafe. Or someone who didn’t go to Greece but heard about it from someone else. I’m sure that will be informative.

I didn’t have Ernie down as a zerohedge reader, but good points also discussed here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-26/lazy-greeks-fault-these-two-charts-suggest-otherwise

Atlaz, indeed the euphoria will be short lived. Greece needs more money, soon

DrJ – what happened go previous German debt!?!

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/economic-historian-germany-was-biggest-debt-transgressor-of-20th-century-a-769703.html

duplicate

jambalaya – Member

@Northwind do you see the irony in that statement,

There’s no irony- you’re just trying to avoid the point. You want to depict the Greeks as people who want to “get something for nothing” and who are “responsible”, I’m simply pointing out that many of the people paying the price were neither responsible, nor those who gained. Diversion tactics just suggest you know how weak your argument is.

You can say “that’s just the way it is” but you can’t pretend it’s fair, or reasonable.

@dazh all the euro block members allowed the Greeks to enter, Sarkozy went as far as to admit it had been a mistake. It’s very political the way the Greeks position Germany as the bad guy here when their stance in echoed by most (all?) of the other euro block countries. I do remember a number of the Eastern European countries being very critical of Greece at the time of the first bailout arguing they had kept their house in order why should they, as part of the euro, have to subsidise Greece etc who had over borrowed. You could also argue Germany is doing a lot to support Greece, the EU has provided euro 240bn in bailout funding and I suspect the Germans are a very large part of that. Many European banks plus international investors like pension funds provided the debt Greece used to support its economic programme, its the Greeks who are positioning it as Germany vs Greece when in fact its the EU/euro block as a whole.

@DrJ firstly Greece is no where near as impoverished as was Germany after WW1 it remains the beneficiary of approx euro 300bn in loans including 60bn keeping the Greek banks afloat (approx 20bn has been withdrawn from Greek banks in the past couple of months to be sent abroad) and secondly it poses no military threat to anyone. The worst thing the Greeks can do is default on all of their debt and throw all their toys out of the window.

You could also argue Germany is doing a lot to support Greece

Like a loan-shark supports his borrowers by lending them more money to pay off previous debts. At least a loan shark would break the legs of the person who actually borrowed the money, rather than a bunch of people with very little connection to them who had no say in whether the initial loans were taken out.

Jambalaya – r u sure? Default, devalue, big one-off hit. Pretty fast reaction and GDP allowed to recover subsequently. Remember Asia? Tough ST remedies are often the best policy.

Plus give creditors a reminder that they have a responsibility to think about those they lend to. Which major debt crisis has avoided creditors taking the pain? The lesson from J M Keynes….

Slightly tangential as it addresses a related point but see last para on oage 2 here

http://www.bis.org/publ/work416.pdf

firstly Greece is no where near as impoverished as was Germany after WW1 it remains the beneficiary of approx euro 300bn in loans including 60bn keeping the Greek banks afloat (approx 20bn has been withdrawn from Greek banks in the past couple of months to be sent abroad) and secondly it poses no military threat to anyone.

Of course the military threat is of no relevance whatsoever. As for the benefits of the huge loans, the point is that those are not supporting anyone’s rent or food bills. Ordinary Greeks are becoming more and more impoverished.

And that’s the issue really – “austerity” is not working. Tax receipts are DOWN even though tax rates have increased, because there are just not enough people working to pay the new higher taxes. It’s just a matter of pragnatism – if the Germans really want their money back, this isn’t the way to get it.

Has Germany paid back (with interest) the loan it forced Greece to give it in the early 40s yet?

It’s rhetorical of course, Germany claims it was stolen rather than loaned and so not repayable

DrJ – Greece was never going to be able to “grow” itself out of trouble. Basic debt dynamic calculators showed that. But the can keeps being kicked down the road because the only way out remains off the agenda for the moment – they need to exit the €. Until then, they are buggered and the young, workers will bear the brunt of this folly.

Although bizarrely epicsteve accuses me of, quote : “typical conspiracy theory nutter behaviour” for suggesting such a thing

It’s because you’re hanging on to what looks a questionable statistic to “prove” your point. Given the stat itself looks dodgy (and isn’t supported by other evidence), then it devalues your argument.

I honestly don’t care one way or the other, however a stat that shows the Greeks as being way out of line with the rest of the EU looked dodgy to me – and on digging around continues to look dodgy. The other stats I’ve seen puts Greece roughly in line with other countries (including Germany), which sounds more believable. Those stats (the EU’s own) indicate that the Greeks record about the same number of hours worked as the Germans – which might support your argument that they’re not lazy (which I’ve no issue with personally) but doesn’t support the point made about them being the hardest working in the EU and working way longer hours than the Germans.

I honestly don’t care one way or the other

I think you do

I think you do

Only about the abuse of statistics.

Have a word with the OECD, and perhaps write strongly worded letters to the Washington Post, the BBC, and the other news providers who reported the OECD findings ?

And Ernie, you can write to them to complain about the “far left” comments 😉

Anyway back to Greece, so varoufakis is not messing about – “Europe is willing to negotiate haircuts – anything else is a waste of time.”

The opening gambit….

DrJ – Greece was never going to be able to “grow” itself out of trouble

Could well be, but giving them a hand would mean that they could pay back something and get on their feet again without massive social disruption, whereas the IMF recipe has just resulted in loss all around. (Except for the bankers, of course, but that is what we expect.)