In the event of Syriza falling one, or even two seats short of an absolute majority, I imagine that there could be an awful lot of incentive attached to being the first New Democracy member to defect…

Prime minister has called the anti-austerity leader to concede defeat according to Guardian.

Money traders will be busy earning come Monday…

It must be Monday in some market or other already as XE had it lost over half a cent straight off. If some currency trader is going to earn though, doesn’t that mean someone else is going to lose? One or two went bust when the CHF delinked from EUR.

I wouldn’t mind being a fly on the wall in Merkel’s office right now though.

John Major and indeed Dubbya.

I agree the John Major one is difficult to rationalise on the personality front, but surely Dubbya was all style and no substance? The very epitome of confidence inspired by extreme imbecility. I mean, when you’re too stupid to have doubts or see both sides of an argument, you’re bound to seem confident……..

Been to Greece and Islands several times…………. they always seem to be sitting around drinking coffee in the coffee shops…..doesn’t anyone work at all in Greece ? ……no wonder they went bust !

mediterranean life style init

anagallis_arvensis – Member 
What does it mean for the euro?

The inevitable….

Have always predicted that social drivers will drive the denouement of the folly of a fixed exchange rate in Europe. Fortunately this has been social unrest delivered via the ballot box rather than violence. But the result is the same and there can be no other answer.

So far, so orderly (phew) but the next bits are tricky. Can you have an orderly Grexit? Unlikely IMO. The money boys will have a clear spread trade to make their money on now – bet against two parties – the Danish krone on the upside and the South of Europe on the downside.

The genie is out of the bottle now, lets see how it shapes out. Most likely to be messy.

“Far left” is how the FT describes it BTW.

And slightly more honest with it unlike the faux gauche or plain silly who think that wage deflation and unemployment is in the interests of the workers of Europe. Still their policies and ideas and obviously incompatible with staying in the euro. That is Salmond-esque fantasy land.

Lots of money making trades out there now…..enjoy!

I dont think anyone has actually said unemployment was a price worth paying and when they did they were most definitely not left wing.

Any quote from the “faux gauche”?

Of course not but well done for not mentioning As or the SNP admirable restraint 😉

EDIT: brilliant you actually went back to EDIT your post whilst I was typing and got an AS dig in

Well done all bases prodded with that response 😀

BRILLIANT that really made me laugh Scots Tony

Who knows there might be possibility of two tier EURO appearing … 😆

Three tiers actually??

Been to Greece and Islands several times…………. they always seem to be sitting around drinking coffee in the coffee shops…..doesn’t anyone work at all in Greece ? ……no wonder they went bust !

They were working in the cool of the morning while the dumb ass tourists were sleeping off last night’s hangover.

Having been in Switzerland at end of last week, I think the hidden Danish issue is equally interesting.

And if JHJ was around, how did one mega hedge fund guru know when to cover his Swissie short?? HMMM….

teamhurtmore – Member

Three tiers actually??

Yes, I forgot the Scandinavians …

So there could be Northern, mid and Southern EURO … 😆

Isn’t it perverse how people make money out of money?

Not really, the perverse thing is simply being passive observers, surely? The same with pensions when folk want to stick their head in the sand instead of responding to the inevitable. That really is odd and perverse.

Long krone, short vol? Long Podemos seats in Spain?

Isn’t it perverse how people make money out of money

yes, doubt you will find much support for that view round here though.

genie is out of the bottle now, lets see how it shapes out. Most likely to be messy.

I presume it will come down to whats best for germany. Am I right in thinking Greece’s problems are down to Germany’s gain?

Isn’t it perverse how people make money out of money

Its at the root of all this madness we find ourselves in, but seems we can’t do without it now.

I sometimes think that the old concept of ‘usury’ might have been that way for very good reasons.

That’ll be Greece out of the Euro quicker than Socrates could send the wine back for tasting a bit ‘funny’!

OP to answer your first post the Greeks don’t want to pay back their debt, Syriza’s main policy is to renegotiate it. What this really means is they want to be “let off” paying back up to 50% of it. Greece was already given one massive bailout and private sector debt (ie international banks and investors) too big losses and the new debt taken on (effectively) by European central banks and monetary funds. So a Greek default will fall upon the taxpayers of Europe (euro zone), its is they who will have to pay back those amounts.

Now if the EU won’t agree to this (quite likely) then Greece will formally default and almost certainly leave the euro. Queue massive devaluation, banking run and a new future for Greece with lower / no debts but no ability to borrow which given that’s the drug they’ve run their economy on is going to be very difficult.

The average Greek voting for Syriza has been suckered in that it’s going to be possible to renegotiate 50% of the debt and remain in the euro. They know Greece depends on the EU to be able to borrow and fund their lifestyle (ie extra ordinarily generous welfare state).

So the more likely outcome is Syriza can negotiate only a very modest reduction in their debt and will have to manage the Greek economy much like the prior government. They know a euro exit would be a disaster. They will of course claim victory and describe their polices as definitely not austerity.

@aa IMO there isn’t enough 11m Greeks could do to make it worth Germany’s while to have this situation, it came about as governments around the EU ignored the huge debts Greece was building up against the single currency membership rules. Pushing back on this in the early 2000’s just wasn’t on their political agenda.

Isn’t it perverse how people make money out of money?

@life money is a commodity just like anything else, gold, property, widgets (of course originaly money was gold, silver etc so a commodity with a value). You can trade any of those and you can do the same with money. Plus of course we have the concept of interest, I gave you money today and you pay me back more later. Money from money and not perverse at all.

So what happens next, a great deal of uncertainty as a new government won’t be formed for a few weeks yet then we have the negotiations. Any sensible Greek person would put their money into a foreign bank and possibly into a different currency. Only a certified lunatic would make any investment into Greece or lend it any more money. Any international lenders (ie banks, pension funds etc) who still have exposure to Greece will be uneasy this morning.

Long Podemos seats in Spain?

It’s a bit selfish, but I’m quite glad the left wing experiment is taking place in Greece first – if it all goes tits-up it should dampen Podemos’ possibilities, and if it works fair enough…

What is this krone issue?

So a party has promised alot of things that aren’t possible but what alot of Greeks would want to hear and when they do pull out things are going to get very choppy?

Is that right?

Am I right in thinking Greece’s problems are down to Germany’s gain?

Depends on if you are in UKIP or believe what the right wingers tell you 😉
their problem is the banks helped them fiddle the figures to join the Euro and they borrowed to high heaven and cannot pay this back. none of this , for it was Greek national policy, is the fault of germany, What the EU has done, though we call it germany as it plays to a lazy Nazi hint, is lend them enough money to not go bankrupt whilst demanding they sort out the mess and pay them back , the bastards eh. Greece would be in a worse state now without this safety net. No one is predicting it will be better for Greece if they leave – to be fair this is partly due to the fact they are defaulting though rather than just leaving

They know Greece depends on the EU to be able to borrow and fund their lifestyle (ie extra ordinarily generous welfare state).

Yes the welfare state caused all of Greeces problems [ and ours] it was not the bankers nor the right wing govt that was in charge when it went belly up [ and joined iirc] but it was the welfare state what done it

#lazystupidrightwingtrope

It does make me laugh that any wavering, however slight, from the neoliberal economic orthodoxy is hysterically derided as extreme. Its hardly like they’re advocating communism, is it? Just a renegotiation of the terms of their imposed austerity package. And who can blame them?

All this is pretty academic anyway. The elephant in the room is the Eurozone itself. The idea that you can have a single currency to cover economies as diverse is Germany and Greece was a ridiculous idea to begin with, has been tested to destruction, and proved over and over and over that it can’t possibly work. The result is the car crash the Eurozone economy now is. Deflation, 40+ youth unemployment all over southern Europe, everyone looking for the next crisis looming on the horizon, which won’t be long, they’re predictably regular, so they can carry on pouring all our money into the void of the Eurozone money-pit.

Until Brussels is prepared to state the obvious – that the whole single currency project has been an unmitigated disaster for everyone involved, including the Germans, then you fear for the future of the continent. Because there is no long term solution without radical change. And does anyone seriously think thats likely to happen? They won’t countenance it until they’ve driven the Eurozone economy off a fiscal cliff for the sake of an unworkable ideologically driven project. Its insanity!!

Buy the rumour sell the fact boys

Eurodollar trading up this morn as is the DAX

has been tested to destruction

IIRC you have to actually wait till it no longer exists. ie it has actually been destroyed, to say this.

Yes if they dont admit it is not working there will be a war/destruction of the continent
# lazyleftwingtrope

radio 4 just now interesting, much more conciliatory noises being made by the new leadership, but pretty radical suggestion to link repayments to growth which initially sounded very reasonable, but sounds a bit like ‘the never never’,

Edit: though I suspect that their creditors will agree to it as it kicks the can down the road again rather than a default. What’s the old expression? ‘A rolling loan gathers no loss’?

Everyone knows they will be worse off if they leave and the EU want them to stay

Its just haggling over terms

Yes the welfare state caused all of Greeces problems [ and ours] it was not the bankers nor the right wing govt that was in charge when it went belly up [ and joined iirc] but it was the welfare state what done it

That’s not what’s being said – don’t take the piss.

Just a renegotiation of the terms of their imposed austerity package.

You make that sound like a simple straightforward thing. Don’t you think it was negotiated in the first place? What makes you think anyone will agree to new terms?

Junkyard – lazarus

has been tested to destruction

IIRC you have to actually wait till it no longer exists. ie it has actually been destroyed, to say this.

That sounds like a ****ing great idea! Lets keep our heads buried in the sand, stick our fingers in our ears, and say ‘la-la-laaaaa! We’re not listening! Its all going great’. Which, worryingly, is exactly whats going on in Brussels.

Would you keep your foot on the accelerator if you were heading towards a brick wall? On the basis that until you actually hit the wall, then everything is actually fundamentally ok. Because thats what you’re advocating.

Tying the southern European economies to that of Germany’s has been catastrophic for everyone involved. Even Germany. Who continue to pour more and more money into the bottomless bailout pit. Without an end in sight. The expectation that Greece or Portugal would adopt and become more like Germany, was always an absolutely ridiculous idea. Hatched in the la-la-land that is Brussels. Unless you can point me towards the Greek equivalent of the German Car industry? Oh… there isn’t one. Nor will there ever be one!

Perhaps you’d like to explain to the 40%+ of the Southern European youth presently unemployed how its actually all going really well, and their really is no alternative. And its all worth it, to prop up what was always a stupid, unworkable idea. I reckon they might take issue with your logic.

No. Better to keep the foot on the accelerator eh? See what happens.

@molgrips, don’t worry I can see it for what it is 🙂

Yes the welfare state caused all of Greeces problems [ and ours] it was not the bankers nor the right wing govt that was in charge when it went belly up [ and joined iirc] but it was the welfare state what done it

Yes it really did. Retiring at 50, massively generous payments to those in work etc etc. Most of these where payments granted by centrist or left wing governments in order to get themselves elected. It was pure bribery of the voters. On top of this you have a country where tax evasion is rife, cash in hand for everything from a haircut to surgery.

FWIW I think Greece should have defaulted and been kicked out of the euro first time around. I doubt the EU politicians will have the balls to do the right thing here either. There will be another fudge.

Of course Syriza are making conciliatory noises now, they know they cannot deliver what they’ve promised to the electorate but that doesn’t matter so much now as they’ve got themselves elected. Now there you have an SNP/AS parallel.

Anyway, happy hunting to the Greeks the Holy Grail is that-a-way

FWIW I think Greece should have defaulted and been kicked out of the euro first time around. I doubt the EU politicians will have the balls to do the right thing here either. There will be another fudge

Greece should never even have been in the Euro – the numbers were very much fudged to let them in, then fudged again (to the point of what looks like fraud) even during the good years. While that’s history now it does beg the question about the likelyhood of them ever being able to actually meet the requirements of being in the Euro. If the answer is no then all the effort put to staying in is pointless, as it’s trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

Thats not what I said Binners and whilst discussing logic you may wish to look at your straw man and moving of the goalposts

That’s not what’s being said – don’t take the piss.

It is what he said look

Yes it really did

When you say you can see it for ” for what it is ” I assume you mean an accurate summation of your position though you somehow wrapped up accuracy as a dig at me [ right] and support for molly[ wrong], God bless STW and jambo reasoning which is mocking me for accurately describing your view 😕

This will be the same old same old and I really cannot be arsed dealing with the hysteria or reading the same old confirmation bias stuff as I am just not that passionate [ for or against I am pretty ambivalent tbh] about it as you folk.

Enjoy

Retiring at 50, massively generous payments to those in work etc etc.

If you keep repeating this enough, maybe it’ll turn into the truth, do you think?

Austerity clearly didn’t work in Greece – if you have no money in the system, you can’t create growth. The ECB just realised this which is why they are now pumping vast quantities of cash into the system – that’s OK for Germany, but the Greeks have to suffer the austerity medicine. Does that make sense?

But what you also have to understand is that Greeks are not just voting against austerity, they are voting against the old 2 party system that got them into this mess – the corruption and incompetence of ND and Pasok that put theme at the mercy of every vulture. You should be happy that the new government is not in the pocket of oligarchs, domestic and foreign, and offers an opportunity for real change. Of course that is not popular in the boardrooms of Siemens and Goldman Sachs, who did quite nicely from the old order, so they will do their very best to see that the infant is strangled at birth.

My point JY is that the situation in Greece was always an absolute inevitability. If not Greece, then somewhere else. It was always when, not if.

The entire European economy has been straight-jacked into an unworkable currency, just at the time where globalisation dictates that things are more fluid than ever. And the continuing inflexibility in the approach of Brussels is economically suicidal! But they can’t admit failure, and therefore develop a more fitting solution. They’re printing money now. Billions upon billions, to try and prop it up. A complete waste of time and (yet more) money while they refuse to countenance fundamental structural reform

While this whole ridiculous charade continues, it was always going to be a case of which was going to be the first southern European economy to say ‘**** this!’ in the face of neoliberal economic dictatorship from Brussels and Berlin. Greece is the first. It certainly won’t be the last. My money is on Spain next

I must reluctantly concede that binners may actually have a point this time.

@DrJ – austerity is working as Greece is starting to be in a position to repay it’s debts. It was only able to be in this position as it was bailed out by the EU, had that not been the case it would have gone bust. Going bust is far more austere than austerity. Austerity is difficult, deleveraging is painful. Germany did not borrow anything like the amounts the Greeks did (relative to their economy) so their pain is quite rightly not the same. The Greeks need to reap what they have sown.

austerity is working

I recommend going to Greece and looking around. Unfortunately the ones doing the reaping are not the ones who did the sowing – they are, as always, quite happy thankyouverymuch.