Greek election – extreme left won

I suspect he had in mind more their paramilitary activities than their success at the ballot box.

So he ‘s thinking along the same lines as me then ?

This is what I said yesterday concerning Golden Dawn :

ernie_lynch – Member

The threat they pose is more associated to the violence and criminal activity rather than achieving meaningful power.

Posted 1 day ago #:

It turns out that me and Varoufakis are singing from the same hymn sheet.

Well I’m glad that’s settled 8)

Because meaningful power is never achieved through violence, right?

I see, so if the Troika doesn’t reach an agreement with Syriza there is a good chance that Golden Dawn will violently seize power in Greece, as opposed to my view which is that if the Troika doesn’t reach an agreement with Syriza it is unlikely that Golden Dawn will violently seize power in Greece.

Thank you for correcting me DrJ.

Anyway now that’s all been sorted out and getting back to the OP anymore thoughts about the “extreme left” winning the election in Greece, apart from the worrying prospect that it might quite likely lead to the Nazis seizing power ?

oh I do miss ernie when he is not here.

Obviously, like everyone else, we are just speculating. My speculations, however, have the virtue of being informed by historical precedent. Failure to reach an agreement could well result in Greece leaving the Euro and economic turmoil. A similar situation has been used in the past as a pretext for military rule. Call them Nazis or call them very naughty boys, it’s not an episode that brought great joy to the country.

Call them Nazis or call them very naughty boys

You say it as if there is no distinction between the two. It’s fair to call Golden Dawn neo-Nazis because that’s exactly what they are. But it’s not always helpful to use the Nazi label against anyone whose ideology you strongly disagree with, it can be both very misleading and dangerously dilute the criminal character of Nazism. Hence the reason why Godwin’s law has gained some traction on internet debates. Use the label when it’s appropriate.

No one can know with any certainty how things will pan out in Greece but I think it’s probably a tad premature to talk of the rise of Nazism and military coups quite yet.

Syriza is backpedaling on the debt issue while increasing the anti-Germany rhetoric including nonsense about suing the Germans for WW2 reparations.

Now understand that they have accepted there will be no debt haircut and will delay or push back their reforms (eg minimum wage 580 back to 750 will be phased in). Unless the EU agree further loans the Greeks will run out of money very soon. I predict lots of talking at the summit this week and no or very limited concessions.

DrJ a Greek default/euro exit could well lead to a resurgence of the right or even military rule (soldiers want to get paid). Not least as there will probably be a big negative reaction to the devastation Syriza will have brought. Certainly an ugly scenario.

Portugeese finance minister chipped in over the weekend saying they had got their house in order and the Greeks should do the same.

Read this earlier, from a US based writer;

Some final thoughts on Greece. Syriza comprises an amalgam of parties stretching the spectrum from center left to insanely left. They have never been in power, and they have no clue as to what running a country actually requires. Greece is essentially starting a rookie quarterback in their equivalent of the Super Bowl. Sometimes that turns out well, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Recent statements and actions by various new ministers in Greece are not encouraging. They look like the Keystone Cops of governing.
If Tsipras and Syriza use this opportunity to clean out some of the corruption that is endemic in Greece, and do so without replacing it with any of their own, that would be positive. However, Syriza gave the far-right-wing separatist party (their majority coalition partner) the position of minister of defense, whereupon the appointee demanded and won the right to execute defense purchasing contracts with just one signature – his. Which could be a step back to corruption as usual in Greece. If the corruption is not dealt with, things are not likely to improve. Syriza still has to govern, though, making the trains run, making sure healthcare is available, etc. The jury is out, and it would not surprise me if voters get frustrated in less than a year and we see Greek elections again.

10, 9, 8…….

However, Syriza gave the far-right-wing separatist party (their majority coalition partner) the position of minister of defence, whereupon the appointee demanded and won the right to execute defence purchasing contracts with just one signature – his. Which could be a step back to corruption as usual in Greece.

Or rewarding their right-wing coalition partners with just enough rope to hang themselves with, I can imagine the conversations;

“Yep they’re welcome to run the Defence ministry, just make sure they are told how small the defence budget is and that there’s no audit or authorisation trail leading anywhere near Syriza, So when they do revert to type we have enough dirt to win the next election”…

I find the war reparations thing a bit unpleasant TBH, it does suggest they are running out of ideas and it’s just descending into anti-German mud slinging for the folks back home…
The major task is going to be rooting out corruption and tax evasion still, the “getting their own house in order” stuff…

I find the war reparations thing a bit unpleasant TBH, it does suggest they are running out of ideas and it’s just descending into anti-German mud slinging for the folks back home…

Agreed, the laying of a wreath the memorial for 20 Greek communists murdered by the NAZIs is one of the first thinks Syriza did, pretty cynical and IMO shows they had very few ideas to start with.

I find the war reparations thing a bit unpleasant TBH

I thought the reparations thing was settled and what they’re chasing is repayment of a loan to the German government?

The crux is whether it was a loan or stolen, if the latter, then the reparations should have covered it

Read this earlier, from a US based writer

Not an unnamed “US based writer” ?! Gosh, who can argue with that……..it must be true !

Anyone based in the US must be an expert, just like that US based terrorism expert regularly used by Fox News who informed us that Birmingham is a no-go area for non-Muslims.

Of course some US based writers have a different opinion, such as Paul Kruman – he’s quite supportive of Syriza, quote :

But a genuine government of the left, as opposed to the center-left, is very different — not because its policy ideas are wild and crazy, which they aren’t, but because its officials are never going to be held in high esteem by the Davos set. Alexis Tsipras is not going to be on bank boards of directors, president of the BIS, or, probably, an EU commissioner. Varoufakis doesn’t even like wearing ties — which, consciously or not, is a way of declaring visually that he is not going to play the usual game.

Greece: The Tie That Doesn’t Bind

Did you know that Paul Krugman won the Noble Prize for economics ?

Depending on who you believe but apparently Cyprus is moving nearer to Russia with plans for a base there only 40 miles from the RAF base. The same RAF base which just happens to have GCHQ and NSA based there and has in the past had U2’s fly out of.

One thing for sure is the next 12 months are going to be one rocky ride.

Interesting article here on the Greek negotiation strategy:

Greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game

You keep mentioning this Ernie, but as an economist I have never heard of this Noble prize. Is is a poor man’s Nobel prize?

Don’t forget Friedman won one of those (the proper ones) too!

@ernie, its an opinion piece, just happens to say what I think so I posted it.

Indeed the Greek Government is not part of the “Davos Set”/EU commissioner/bank board of directors but the fact is the nation collectively borrowed from them so their opinion matters, in fact they call the shots in this case as that’s what the contract/deal says.

@dragon, thanks for posting that I had missed it. I liked this bit …

Varoufakis’s idea of strategy is to hold a gun to his own head, then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger.

Blazing saddles anyone?

@ernie, its an opinion piece, just happens to say what I think so I posted it.

Yes I grasped that 🙂

I’m just not sure why you think the opinion of an unnamed “US based” writer is particularly valid, even if he does agree with you.

With every person you find that agrees with you I can find someone who agrees with me. It doesn’t make either of us right. Whether it’s your ex-boss’s Argentine wife or an unnamed US based writer, everyone has opinions.

.

THM it’s more than just “a poor man’s Nobel prize”, it’s a dyslexic man’s Nobel prize – so even more prestigious. Anyone who understands economics and is also dyslexic deserves a special prize.

🙂

John Maudlin, I can name check him as I checked I didn’t breach his T&C’s by posting it. Free weekly newsletter.

Thoughts from the Frontline

but the fact is the nation collectively borrowed from them

n + 1 🙄

Never heard of him. What prize laureate is he then ?

Easier to blame apple autocorrect – that’s what kills my posts!!!

I am waiting for a Nobble prize for screwing a country – to the proponents of the €!! 😉

In the end, who will blink?

Still most likely to be the Eurocrats. They don’t know how to handle someone without a tie!!!

lNot least as there will probably be a big negative reaction to the devastation Syriza will have brought. Certainly an ugly scenario.

Just words. The fact is that Greece cannot pay the debts no matter how much of a hardon it gives you to think of people starving. The question is now, what to do about it. Two options – restructuring the debt to permit some economic growth or kicking Greece out of the EZ

Kicking out of the EZ?

How about giving the Greeks the ability to manage their own exchange rate. The rest of the world is involved in competitive devaluation. Why not the Greeks?

That’s another way to phrase it 🙂

Squeaky bum time now – who will fold.

As always funny to read the comments below Munchau’s weekly anti-Europe FT piece

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/175f6634-b2d3-11e4-a058-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3RhcEwzi1

Makes STW look calm and loving in comparison!!

Merkel has a pretty good track record of folding in the end, but Schauble clearly wants a fight today!!! Did he miss the electoral mandate?!?!

Messy, messy, messy

Schauble is just looking like an idiot at the moment – I don’t think it is appropriate to say things like “I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly.” he’s entitled to his personal view, but expressing it in public in this way cannot be seen as helpful.

After last week’s meeting, when FT prematurely leaked a copy of the memorandum, it was speculated that a statement was agreed but later vetoed by Tsipras, and people questioned the point of dealing with Varoufakis when the “organ grinder” was not present. In fact it turns out is was Schauble who vetoed the statement, which leads me to ask the same question back – what is the point of speaking to a narrow minded fool like Schauble, when the organ grinder is Merkel?

Especially when Merkel prefers to fold!

Still makes good headlines!

He is right about being sorry for the Greeks, just not (100%) with the reasons!

I feel sorry for the Greeks as well – they elected a series of governments that f*cked them over the years. They have also been f*cked over the last century by more or less everyone – the Turks, the British, the Germans, the Italians, the US, etc etc…

Schauble is just looking like an idiot at the moment – I don’t think it is appropriate to say things like “I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly.” he’s entitled to his personal view, but expressing it in public in this way cannot be seen as helpful.

You won’t be surprised to hear I don’t think he looks daft at all. He’s speaking for the whole of Germany as a minimum. I feel sorry for the Greeks, they have gotten themselves into this terrible position and getting out is going to be very painful. When they joined the EU and the euro they had a tremendous opportunity to invigorate the country and build a positive future, they chose another path.

Following quote is from the Spanish finance minister Luis de Guindos

: “Our red line is that [Greek] loans must be paid back in full”

THM you keep posting links to FT articles and yet you know that the FT has a paywall so most people won’t be able to read them. If you really want people to read the article then don’t post a link but just post the headline as the articles can be accessed via a google news search.

Anyway imo an otherwise good article was let down towards the end by this false claim :

If Syriza were to be co-opted into the policy consensus, the only political party left to oppose these policies would be Golden Dawn, a neo-Nazi party.

Golden Dawn are not the only other party to to oppose austerity measures. While it is true that they came third in the recent general election and received 388 thousand votes the KKE, which is also opposed to the austerity, received 338 thousand votes which is hardly a very long way behind, and they have 15 MPs to Golden Dawn’s 17.

Further more it is unlikely that many who have voted for a left-wing party, described as “far-left” by their detractors, will simply automatically switch their allegiance to a far-right party, specially when there is a genuine far-left party to vote for.

And of course there is still the Independent Greeks Party in the legislature, they are both right-wing and anti-austerity, but not quite as right-wing as Golden Dawn.

So the suggestion that other than Syriza and Golden Dawn there are no other political parties in Greece to oppose austerity is both false and sloppy.

Don’t believe everything you read in the papers, even if it’s the FT.

Someone with a little more creative skill should put this song over some images of Vouvakis swanning around on his motorbike, no tie and all – eh ?

I feel sorry for the Greeks, they have gotten themselves into this terrible position and getting out is going to be very painful.

Groundhog Day. You never miss an opportinity to confuse cause with effect do you?

You won’t be surprised to hear I don’t think he looks daft at all. He’s speaking for the whole of Germany as a minimum.

He’s not speaking for the whole of Germany though, any more than George Osborne speaks for the whole of Britain.

Wolfgang Schauble’s party received even less support in Germany than George Osborne’s party received in Britain.

@ernie 75% of Germans think the Greeks should not get a debt haircut, there was a poll. The eurosceptics in Germany are on the rise, they are going to be even less accommadative to Greece than Merkel’s social democrats.

@dazh – I understand cause and effect very well. The Greek economy was based upon excessive government borrowing redistributed to the population, the music stopped and now its time to repay.

Sonner or later someone is going to raise the prospect of Greece being kicked out of the EU altogether. I doubt it will happen but it probably should. I nearly died laughing when I read the stories floated by Greece about borrowing money from Russia or indeed China. The Greeks just cancelled the port sale to the Chinese, the Chinese aren’t interested in loans they want to buy assets. Russia is in dire straights following the sanctions and oil price fall with an economy now 50% of the size of the UK.

The Greeks need to understand what a fantastic privilege it is for them to be in the EU, they need to do all they can to remain inside and an exit, even just from the euro, would be a disaster for them.

How can a collapse in the economy, massive wage deflation and crippling unemployment be considered a privilege?

Being part of the € is a fate worse than default. Compare the current pain with other sov defaults, only in this case we are no nearer the end of the world

Sorry about the links E_L, if you are following other threads, the default answer is don’t be tight and buy the subscription!! 😉 plus you can’t copy and paste stuff because they monitor this accurately!!

There are two largely democratic mana dates going head to head. Both can’t win. Hence the game of chicken.

Schauble is just looking like an idiot at the moment – I don’t think it is appropriate to say things like “I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly.” he’s entitled to his personal view, but expressing it in public in this way cannot be seen as helpful.

jambalaya :

You won’t be surprised to hear I don’t think he looks daft at all. He’s speaking for the whole of Germany as a minimum.

It’s his personal opinion. There is no evidence that “the whole of Germany” is of the opinion that Greece has “elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly”.

For a start if you read the FT article you will see that Wolfgang Münchau strongly disagrees, despite being German. And not even Wolfgang Schaeuble’s coalition partner is saying that the Greek government is “acting irresponsibly”.

Mr. Varoufakis on Thursday found a more sympathetic ear in Sigmar Gabriel, who is Germany’s economy and energy minister and leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party. Mr. Gabriel urged for a fresh program to be drawn up for Greece before the current one expires.

“I think this is in all of our interests,” Mr. Gabriel said after the meeting.

Don’t make wild claims about “the whole of Germany” to further your agenda.

The Greek economy was based upon excessive government borrowing redistributed to the population, the music stopped and now its time to repay.

Just as the German economy was based on keeping wages down, savings up, creating huge piles of cash with nowhere to go except to create bubbles in other countries. As has been documented elsewhere, there is no precedent in history for such funds to be dispensed constructively, an the same holds true today. Everybody contributed to this mess, borrowers and lenders.

ernie, I quoted a poll held in Germany. I would imagine a similar result if you held such a poll in Spain or Italy. Schauble is speaking in his role as German Finance minister, it wasn’t not a fireside chat over a Pilsner.

DrJ, the lenders lent money on the basis of blatant lies from the Greeks. There was no bubble in Greece, the Greeks just borrowed money and handed it out to voters.

TMH, its odd is it not how the euro didn’t result in the rest of the PIIGS getting into quite the same mess. They managed to contain themselves somewhat. Those in Ireland or Portugal which have endured hardships into order to fix their issues aren’t going to be supportive of Greece getting beneficial treatment.