French Elections

fake far right origin of European integration

There is nothing “fake” about the far-right postwar commitment to European integration.

The European Declaration

Postwar Mosley used his contacts with former nazis and Italian fascists to set up the National Party of Europe, unfortunately for him the only ones who had any sort of electoral success was the Italian MSI party, whose successors are now part of the current Italian government, and the far-right in the UK abandoned him in favour of the League of Empire Loyalists.

I am not sure that ignoring awkward facts because they don’t fit into a preferred narrative is very useful to anyone.

Personally I like to confront the truth and if it sits awkwardly with my preferred narrative I will consider changing my way of thinking, I don’t simply ignore it!

Yikes, first poll not looking good for Macron (or France), his party have improved their showing from the Euros but LePen still sitting pretty

#LegislativesAnticipees
Le RN est crédité de 31% des intentions de vote exprimées, l’alliance de gauche 28% et Renaissance/alliés 18%
Le RN pourrait disposer d’une solide majorité relative entre 220 et 270 sièges selon notre projection@BFMTV@LaTribune
➡️https://t.co/FBO6cFZYYx pic.twitter.com/nA5Q790QXg

— ELABE (@elabe_fr) June 12, 2024

A lot could change over the next few weeks, but a mountain to climb

It’s all about the legacy

There are also the olympics. Before he called an election it was heading for a complete fiasco. He’s no doubt hoping that giving people a voice just before it starts will allow planes to fly, trains to run, roundabouts to be circumnavigated… .

And for your edit Ed:

It’s a public forum, and Ernie has years of practice at winding people up and trashing politics threads. I remind him of his origins as it’s EU membership that enabled him to prosper in the UK, it gave him rights where he had none. Even the withdrawal agreement which has allowed him to remain in the UK was down to the persistance of Barnier/the EU. And what’s with not applying for British nationality, Ernie?

And most importantly who are you voting for in the French elections, Ernie? Because you definitely have a vote if you can be bothered to use it. Your euroscepticism limits your choice to some pretty unsavoury bed partners.

I’ve said I’m voting for Glucksman, and you ?

Can you try not to turn every thread on which you disagree with me into personal thing about me?

I suspect not but try to give a go anyway. The outrage me having a different opinion to you causes you is bizarre. How do you deal with your day-to-day life where you must be constantly meeting people with different opinions?

Or iz it coz iz french?

I think you’re forgetting that the French electoral system is a two round system and any analysis that doesn’t include predictions for rapports de voix in the second round dosen’t tell you much, Kerley. The RN candidates that can get 50% in the first round will get in (very few), but not many of those that lead after the first round will get over the second hurdle.

And can’t you find anything other than Twitter/X to link.

Fillon wiped out the Republicans, Macron has left Renaissance seriously injured, the socialist vote has been split in two… but come the second round all that matters is how those who’ve lost their candidates chose to go, leftish or far right. I think/hope that RN is too far right to pick up votes from other parites apart from a few Republicans (not many left, most are already RN) and a few LFI.

Or iz it coz iz french?

No.

It’s because you’re a Brexity, europhobic, conspiracy theory loving, marxist Liberal Democrat with a long history of trashing political threads and getting more than a bit personal with me and others. Clear ? 🙂

And a tip, there isn’t another member on STW dumb enough to think that link to Mosely in any way supports your view that Vichy fascists were at the origin of the EU. People who read this forum aren’t even a little bit as thick as you take them for.

It’s because you’re a Brexity

Jeezus give it a break, so I don’t support the EU. It’s not unusual for left-wingers to oppose the EU you know. Currently Mick Lynch is an obvious example, and another obvious example was Tony Benn. In the case of Benn he was even more hostile to the EEC than I was.

Stop pretending that my opposition to the EU is some sort of personal affront purely designed to wind people up. Obviously you would prefer that I didn’t express any opinions different to yours but I can’t see the value of political debates based on everyone having identical opinions.

there isn’t another member on STW dumb enough to think that link to Mosely in any way supports your view that Vichy fascists were at the origin of the EU.

Don’t be ridiculous, the link to Mosely was simply to point out that postwar many on the far-right supported European integration. A perfectly valid point to make as many people are unaware of that, and the schism that occurred between pan-European nationalists and Empire loyalists, the consequences of which we are still experiencing today.

You obviously prefer that historical facts were ignored. Including that during the Vichy government much of the German and French economies were synchronized. Of course they were, both were formable European industrial powers and allies. Much of the structures of this integration was used as a blueprint in the Monnet Plan.

And why not? It was a perfectly sensible postwar plan which as I previously pointed out was backed by both the anti-Vichy Resistance and the anti-Vichy Communist Party.

I certainly don’t condemn it. But it would be disingenuous to pretend that this didn’t eventually lead to the European Coal and Steel Community and so on.

Now let’s please leave your apparent obsession with my veiws on the EU, and how French you think I really am, and instead let’s talk about the French elections and the extremely real threat posed by the French far-right, what do you reckon?

This thread is about the 2024 election.

If you want a thread on conspiracy bollocks and propaganda about the EU, start one. If you want to link fascist propaganda, start another thread. If you want a thread about Vichy France start one.

I’m quite happy to contribute on-the-ground reporting from France but this isn’t the place for your rewritten history.

It’s 2024.

Your reluctance to post about who you intent to vote for suggests it’s Bardella/Le Pen. Go on who are you going to vote for?

Your reluctance to post about who you intent to vote for suggests it’s Bardella/Le Pen. Go on who are you going to vote for?

FFS in case you hadn’t noticed this thread isn’t about me, despite your obsession with my opinions.

But yeah, you’ve got me bang to rights, I’m voting far-right in the French elections, there’s obviously no pulling the wool over your eyes mate!

So now that we have established that I am in fact a far-right neo-nazis how about some of your “on-the-ground reporting from France” which you have so unselfishly offered.

What can you tell us…….is my far-right party going to win? What’s the latest – is it proving to be as much fun as the UK election? I bet it isn’t.

Finally!

, I’m voting far-right in the French elections

Thank you for your honesty, viewers will now know that it’s my Glucksman views versus your far right views.

What can you tell us…….is my far-right party going to win?

I doubt it, but they’ll do better than they’ve ever done before.

I suppose it w ould be pushing you too far to ask which far right party you are going to vote for:

RN

The Frexit bunch, Asselineau and his UPR

Alliance Royale (this would fit quite well with your love of the British royals)

(this would fit quite well with your love of the British royals)

Ah, I wasn’t aware that I was a royalist as well. It makes sense though I guess.

Any interesting UK Tory style gaffes that you can report on?

Is it just me or is anyone else finding it massively ironic that the UK appears to be heading in the opposite direction to the rest of Europe on the political spectrum (yeah I know Starmer is a tory etc). When the brexiteers said that the EU was on the brink of collapse and we should get out for our own good I doubt this is what they had in mind. Funny old world!

the french meme game is next level

I don’t know who made this, but bravo ??? pic.twitter.com/R8wy74FXOL

— Julien Hoez (@JulienHoez) June 14, 2024

Is it just me or is anyone else finding it massively ironic that the UK appears to be heading in the opposite direction to the rest of Europe on the political spectrum

Its certainly true in France, but in Sweden, Finland, Czech, Portugal, Holland far right parties underperformed compared to predictions, even Germany they were predicted to do better than they did -though still beating Scholz into second, but compare to the last 2 UK  EU elections where BXP came 1st & Tories were in 3rd & 5th!! & we are now a few days away from a 200 seat Labour majority

Poland has shifted to the left (as have many esatern european countries)  And Wilders after 6months is only just about able to form a government, but his party were shocked not to become the largest party in the EU elections

The collapse in Green support has tied with a rise in Far right parties- Meloni did well, but VonDerLeyens EPP group are still the main group and she will be pleased with that

I used to vote green in the european elections. This time I didn’t for two reasons: 1/there were three green parties none of which a had a hope in hell. 2/ I voted for the left-wing candidate with the best chance of beating the RN, unfortunately he lost by 49 votes.  I think the same will happen in the legislatives, green voters who are generally around the center or left of center will vote for the party most likely to beat the RN.

Slow hand clap for Macron. 🙄

https://x.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1801947916720103796?s=46&t=LtLH_brmYFWrcPalxgEeWA

Macron’s dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.

Surely that won’t be known until after the 2027 presidential election? In the meantime Macron remains president and continues to enjoy all the huge executive powers which a French president has – much more than many other leaders in liberal democracies.

It seemed highly probable that the RN would win the presidency in 2027, if three years of chaotic RN government scuppers that then the gamble will have paid off.

…and continues to enjoy all the huge executive powers which a French president has – much more than many other leaders in liberal democracies

Depends what you’re referring to, but President Macron will lose most of his executive powers with the loss of his majority. That’s been a problem since 2022

If he loses badly then he’ll have little say in the assembly. He’s head of the military and can authorise nuclear weapon use, but that’s about it. He can dissolve the Assemblée Nationale, but he’s just done that.

In theory he can do other stuff, like appoint his choice of PM, but the reality is that won’t happen because he’ll trigger votes of no confidence. Jacques Chirac is an example of that reality

Won’t he be able to veto all legislation at least once?

Edit:

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/how-powerful-frances-president

French presidents have more power than the leaders of most other advanced democracies, including Germany, the United Kingdom, and, arguably, the United States. They not only command the executive apparatus, including the armed forces, but tend to drive the national policymaking agenda with little parliamentary oversight. 

It isn’t that simple if he cohabits, i.e. he is forced to appoint an opposition PM. That will happen if the polls are accurate

… from your link

Executive power is awkwardly shared during periods of cohabitation, and presidents often choose to focus more on diplomacy and security matters, which are exclusively their province.

So in many ways that is excellent news for Macron. If his strategy in calling an early general election is indeed the belief that three years of chaotic RN government will scupper their chances of winning the next presidential election then the fact that they won’t be able to deflect the blame for any failings onto him is great.

With their growing and very significant support confirmed in last week’s European elections wasn’t it reasonably certain to assume that they would in all likelihood win the next presidential election? They got fairly close to doing so last time.

Three years is easily enough time to discredit an inept political party in government. Obviously the strategy will fall apart if the RN government performs well.

Otherwise it will have been a genius move. The newly elected president will be able to dissolve the RN controlled National Assembly claiming that they need the backing of the NA for their personal mandate from the people.

The RN government will have been a failed three year far-right government, and  nothing more than “a detail of history”, to paraphase Marine Le Pen’s neo-nazi father.

I don’t think Macron believes this will result in an RN government. You can’t win a French election unless you pick up votes in the second round when people lose their prefered candidates. So the result depends on the “rapports de voix”, how voters who have lost their prefered candidate vote in the second round. In elections where the FN/RN have been in the two party vote off the other parties have almost invariably called for a “front républicain” against the RN/FN. So republicans/centrists/communist/greens bite the bullet and vote socialist if it’s socialist versus RN, and socialists vote centrist/republican if it’s republican or centrist versus RN etc..

In Short, Macron is relying on a Front Républicain to return an assembly in which the RN/FN is in the minority. Even if this is the case the assembly will be more disparate than ever before and totally unmanageable. To function there would have to be some fairly unholy alliances I can’t see working. It’s going to be chaos. And don’t underestimate “la rue”. If the RN have a majority at the assembly or are part of a right wing alliance best have a good stock of tinned food at home.

OH yeah, the scadalous stuff Ernie asked for. Mélenchon has just named a wife beater given a suspended jail sentence as candidate and excluded LFI’s two most visible competant potential candidates who he doen’t get along with. Tit.

So in many ways that is excellent news for Macron.

Yes, but you have to consider the numbers; it’s a huge gamble by anyone’s standards.

I said on the Ukraine thread that President Macron didn’t have a choice, “A secret poll commissioned by LR in December 2023 gives a majority of RN deputies in the Assembly in the event of dissolution, leading to cohabitation. Victory is possible: never abstain again. If the people vote, the people win!” https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/03/leaked-secret-poll-gives-le-pen-majority-in-french-parliament/

There’s a far-right surge in the EU and plenty of countries outside the EU willing to add their experience and resources to help extremists in the EU’s second largest economy. Who knows what will happen in three years?

After four years, Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden 46.8%:51.3%. Brexit 52%:48%. Hardly convincing wins for what should be clear outcomes; the margins are likely to be tight and not what you’d bet everything on

In elections where the FN/RN have been in the two party vote off the other parties have almost invariably called for a “front républicain” against the RN/FN.

That’s a fair point. And one which Chirac’s 82% vote emphasised. So presumably the European election results didn’t reflect the the commitment of the anti-RN vote?

If Macron is indeed looking at defeating the RN how feasible then is the claim that the perceived foolhardy decision to call an early snap election, quickly after the European election, was based on the belief that the RN’s warchest would depleted and that they would be unable, without help from Putin, to borrow from the banks to mount an effective campaign?

And I guess that either way Macron might have calculated that if the RN were going to win an election better the legislative elections now rather than the bigger prize of the presidential election in three years time?

Edit: Do they still say vote with your heart in the first round but vote with your wallet in the second round?

The Euros were only one round so there wasn’t the possibility of a front républicain in the second round.

You’re asking about the feasiblity of a claim I wasn’t even aware of and hearing here sounds like pure speculation/invention.

I would argue that the legislatives are the bigger prize as the impotence of cohabiting presidents has demonstrated. The “super powers” of the French president are a myth promoted by anglo-saxon media. An assembly with an opposition president gets on with business, a president with an oppostition assembly goes on jolly jaunts around the world shaking hands.

There are “vote de coeur” and “vote utile” for the first and second rounds but “voter avec son portefeuille” has a very different notion. You vote with your wallet when you make consumer choices. For example buying French strawberries, an electric car or boycotting Nestlé.

Live update, Mélenchon’s wife beater mate is out. Good. Now they just have to get rid of Mélenchon himself and the Popular Front will stand a chance.

You’re asking about the feasiblity of a claim I wasn’t even aware of and hearing here sounds like pure speculation/invention.

If refers to the fact that French banks won’t loan to the far-right and that following the European elections, plus the fact the RN paid off their existing depts to the Russians last December, their coffers are likely to be completely empty, which would obviously put them at a serious disadvantage when faced with an unexpected snap national election.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20161222/national-front-cries-foul-over-refusal-of-french-banks-to-loan-money

Btw I find it strange that the Anglo-Saxon media might want to create a myth concerning the powers of the French president. Why do you imagine they might want to do that? I can’t think of any benefits.

The RN doen’t have financing problem, it borrows from private individuals:

https://www.lalettre.fr/fr/action-publique_partis-et-elections/2024/03/29/europeennes–le-rn-boucle-son-emprunt-pour-la-campagne-de-bardella,110197869-art

I’m not in the heads of the people writing stuff for the British media, I can only observe that there’s an assumption in many articles and reports that French policy is Macron’s rather than government policy. Sure the president can give  a lead but it’s then down to the assembly, ammendments, possible a 49:3 and then the senate before projects see the light of day. The media are quick to point to the US president’s limits but less so the French president’s.

Your link doesn’t seem to back up the suggestion that the RN  doesn’t have financing problems, just that the RN has secured loans from individuals. It doesn’t claim that this relieves them from any financial problems.

It has been very widely reported over a long period of time, going back to Marine Le Pen’s father, that the FN/RN has had loan/debt issues.

Indeed Marine Le Pen has used the RN’s inability to secure loans from French banks as justification for accessing Russian loans.

Loans which they apparently struggled to repay:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/6/3/russian-firm-french-far-right-party-settle-10m-debt-dispute

The media are quick to point to the US president’s limits but less so the French president’s.

I have no idea where you get that from. Based on the information which I receive from the “Anglo-Saxon” media I get the impression the US President has awesome levels of executive power, and I imagine the average person in the UK thinks that too. In contrast I doubt that the average person exposed to Anglo-Saxon myths knows or cares about the French president’s powers.

The link confirms that the RN had no trouble financing the Euros with private loans. The legislatives should be even easier as they are forecast to win enough seats to repay whatever they borrow. The FN had trouble in the past because it spent lots and didn’t win anything so didn’t get the money from winning seats. This time they’ll do very nicely even if they don’t win overall with the number of seats they’re likely to get:

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/elections-legislatives-2024-un-enjeu-financier-majeur-pour-les-partis-politiques_6603888.html

Obama couldn’t do thing about gun control.

Well yes I appreciate that they get state financing although in the link I posted it said:

In 2018, the French authorities withheld $2.2m of public subsidies normally paid to political parties, pending an inquiry into the alleged misuse of European Union funds.

$2.2m  sounds like peanuts.

But okay if that is indeed the case and the RN won’t struggle to finance a totally unexpected national election, what do you think is the reason why Macron has called  totally unnecessary legislative elections which are highly likely to have dire consequences?

Good point about gun control btw. No US politician is more powerful than the NRA!

I’ve already given my personal take: give people a voice before the olympics for the timing. I’ll add that a motion de censure was becoming inevitable as the LR could no longer be counted on after their Euro débacle. Better call an election now than be forced to by a motion de censure in the less favourable autumn.

Macron justified his decision to call a snap election by claiming that he couldn’t ignore  “the new political reality” whilst simultaneously claiming that he was totally confident that the RN would be defeated, so in other words no “new political reality” at all.

And I don’t understand why he would want to “give people a voice before the olympics”, is that really a thing?

The new political reality was defined by the Euros and the fact that Renaissance was no longer sure of finding enough allies to either govern or survive a motion de censure. Being confident that RN would be defeated is based on the Euro results and the likely rapport de voix in a second round likely to be dominated by a front républicain.

The Olympics is enough of a “thing” to get a mention in many of the comments on the timing of the election along with the start of the school holidays.

I’m not presenting anything controversial here. Apart from my view that the Olympics are a signicant part of the election timing and a personal contempt for Mélenchon you won’t find anything I’ve presented that isn’t in mainstream commentary. Even my contempt for Mélenchon is mainstream among the moderate europhile left:

https://www.liberation.fr/politique/purge-de-jean-luc-melenchon-la-petite-mesquinerie-face-a-la-grande-histoire-20240615_L4HJQDLGAJBGNKNGPSLJUVRHK4/

A bit like Binners’ view of “magic grandad”, a liability to his party.

Being confident that RN would be defeated is based on the Euro results and the likely rapport de voix in a second round likely to be dominated by a front républicain.

Okay I guess that we will know soon enough if that confidence was well placed, and it all pans out according to the script – 3 weeks I think?

Two weeks to the first round, three weeks to the second round.

Enjoy your trip to 21, Cromwell Road. 🙂 Junior has already been to Pariser Platz 5

Has it changed from 2 weeks between rounds to 1 week?

No I won’t be voting. My links with France have become far too remote.

Edit: I only go to Cromwell Road when my passport needs renewing!

Good point, it is normally two weeks.

Oh this is entertaining, although I am not sure whether you will appreciate it Ed

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/16/french-farce-is-back-with-a-bang-as-paris-descends-into-comic-election-mayhem

I particularly liked this:

As one of their posters puts it: Look, We’ll Fight About it Later.

And this:

The French like a laugh as much as any of us, but are constitutionally allergic to being the butt of the joke. 

Read in the spirit it’s written that’s a pretty good summary from the Guardian.

I’ve had to stop watching TF1 and get my news from France 2 and France Inter, like watching a storm from behind a reinforced glass window, un spectacle des éléments déchaînés.