EU Referendum – are you in or out?

This was funny and desperate in equal measure.

mefty – Member
A plebiscite is the purest form of democracy

Mrs B tells me estimated cost is €500bn

Your good lady reads the Republican figures, a bit like the £350 million on the side of the bus it’s misleading and fails to take into account the allocations it will replace. 45bn euros is also quoted.

Add all the centre-left results in your opinion poll together and you have a bigger number than the right. France remains leftward leaning. The electoral system may however produce a right wing victory.

IGM. Neither funny nor desperate. Try accurate if inconvenient (for the new whiny narrative)

The cost is a rounding error. Hence the need for Brexshiteers to resort to diversionary stunts. We know that. Learn why liars resonate and succeed so that it won’t happen again.

THM: On membership… we are all already clear that Norway isn’t a member of the Single Market, even though it is in it. It was pointed out by many during the referendum that this is a far weaker position than we have as a full member, including by politicans from Norway, and both Leave and Remain campaigners. Members get to set the rules of the Single Market; if you are in it but not a member, you have to follow the rules but play no part in setting them.

I keep saying “Norway is in the Single Market” and you keep countering this by asking “is Norway a member of the Single Market”. These are not the same things.

It is in the Single Market (for goods but not food) but it is not a member.

The rules include FoM, and an ECJ equivalent by the way. So back to those red lines of May’s that rule this kind of compromise out….

They also include budget contributions, but she hasn’t ruled that out yet…

That are not the same thing – you are staring to get it right. Success. I am glad that we ARE clear now

I have said all along that what we have now is far better than the alternatives that we will be discussing in the future. But my views are not shared by the majority. I lost. They won.

We will see who ia right at some point in the future.

P.S. you are also correct in where the current red lines leave us. I stated that many, many pages ago. According to the non-existent plan, our negotiating starting point is for a bespoke deal between FTA and the CU but currently biased towards the former

So is Norway in the Single Market THM?
Stop dancing on your head of a pin.

Given how small the actual amount is in real terms it’s not that tough a choice really

I make it that EU will lose 0.05% of GDP in terms of budget contribution when we leave.

Of course, economically it’ll be far more impacted than this… any focus on the contribution ignores this.

No, we have discussed this before and give you the appropriate homework.

Norway has access to the Single Market though as we know or should do. We will too albeit through a different arrangement.

Tip. Avoid pins. They hurt the feet. Dance on solid ground instead. Better and less painful

How about “Norway pays a substantial sum of money to be able to freely trade a limited selection of goods and services with the EU”.

I am on the fence but, would like any pro brexit types to explain how brexit will benefit economically?

Don’t hold your breath. The economic argument is clear, but it’s not about that, as the Sccot Nats say, the economic cost is worth it if we can at least fake control in the end.

The economic case is that the UK will be much better off trading with India then the largest trading bloc in the world.

First Greek debt story in the mainstream media for a while. Eurozone finance ministers meet Feb 20, also notes vital role IMF plays

“Greece 3 weeks away from explosive debt problems”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/29/greece-three-weeks-away-explosive-debt-problems-imf-alexis-tsipras

Issue will be kicked into the long grass again given French and German elections but the problem is just intensifying

Great article in the Graun on American food; expect it on a shelf near you soon.

If this comes to pass then I’m heading for vegetarianism; American food is foul, their agri business calls the shots…..corn syrup in bread, FFS!

The sad thing was that the NFU, instead of making the distinction between our good, EU-controlled stuff, want to adopt the same practices…..race to the bottom.

This is the kind of thing that we’ll miss- “red tape” eh?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/britain-us-trade-deal-gm-food-eu-rules?CMP=fb_gu

Democracy bypasses an ill-informed electorate.

We had a special thread on all the ridiculous Remain campaign predictions. Leavers saw straight through them all.

GM stuff is a red herring 😉 is all those steroids in the meat that aren’t so good

We had a special thread on all the ridiculous Remain campaign predictions. Leavers saw straight through them all.

Call us when it happens, the crash on the threat was bad. You really think a deal that sends shit US food to the UK is a good one to be chasing?

I think people aren’t quite understanding what ‘democracy’ means. It’s not a complete national constitution. It’s simply a basic concept – we get to vote. It says nothing about how to actually run a country. That’s the bit we have to create. There’s no such thing as ‘pure’ or 100% democracy, where everyone votes on everything, as if that’s something to aim for and everything else is a compromise.

So it would be equally democratic if we gave the referendum absoute power; or we didn’t and passed the result to parliament. They are both democratic. Only difference is that one, in my opinion, is stupid democracy, and one is a bit more sensible given the circumstances.

We had a special thread on all the ridiculous Remain campaign predictions.

So my rights aren’t being taken away after all? Was that just a ridiculous prediction? I hope so.

@mike I discussed the extra budget contributions a while ago. Estimates are Germany €4-5bn, France €2-3bn pa etc, this is to maintain the same EU budget spending. Remember Germany is already facing €20-40bn pa for the 1 million migrants they took in plus pressure from US for them to increase NATO spending by €30bn to meet the 2% (they are barely over 1%) plus then of course the almost limitless requirements of propping up the over borrowed Southern European states. Remember also the EU is oaying Turkey some €9bn in return for it pkaying ball with taking failed asylum seekers back.

There is going to be an EU budget sh.t fight as the countries which receive large annaul payments are asked to take a cut as Germany/France etc don’t want to pay more. Elections there in 2017 remember

Molgrips – the Brexies are basically religious fanatics – you know, stick to their claims whatever happens, hatred is an acceptable tool (dress it as patriotism, nationalism, believing in sovereignty), anyone who doesn’t agree with them is a heretic to be burned (or at least shouted down) and in extreme cases they believe it is ok to murder those who oppose you.
These are the people you are dealing with – don’t expect to beat them with rational argument (they said that much themselves).

Waiting for the brexies to cry foul about sovreignity

now that we have swapped the evil EU hegemony for being supplicants to Trumpism, so desperate to secure a trade deal that ‘British Values’ come a distant second to America First.

Estimates are Germany €4-5bn, France €2-3bn pa etc, this is to maintain the same EU budget spending

how much do they save without having to give us money back? without us the EU budget spend reduces, non?

Germany is already facing €20-40bn pa for the 1 million migrants they took in

again. 40bn is YOUR number. also of the 1m migrants to Germany, a quarter of them are not refugees or asylum seekers.

pressure from US for them to increase NATO spending by €30bn to meet the 2% (they are barely over 1%)

did I misunderstand Mike’s pie chart above? it’s behind a paywall so I can’t check. that appears to show Germany’s defence spend at 5%?

I’ve just remembered that I meant to ask this a while ago….Andy (Jamba), ninfan-

The impending Euro debt crisis. As I understand it, we’re not on the hook for that. We’re part of it in that our economy is considered part of an overall larger eurozone economy, and if a payout is needed we contribute- but my understanding is that we automatically and instantly are credited the sum back. We’re really just there as a backstop.

That was the case in 2016- is this now no longer the case, would we have to pay, and then forego this payment…forever?

If this has been covered elsewhere then apologies, but it seems a central plank of your argument and I just….don’t get it. I dont see us being at risk directly for, for example, any Greek economic collapse.

Now, I can see the risk to general economic wellbeing if the eurozone and beyond tanks, as we’re a close trading partner, but thats not what I’m meaning here. I mean a specific, direct encumbrance to the UK as a result of any member of the EU’s economy failing.

Cheers-

You did misunderstand I’m afraid Del. NATO want members spending 2% of GDP on defense, not 2% of government expenditure.

It’s all bogus though, because the “defense” budget of each country contains, and is spent on, very different things.

Given the contents of the 634 pages, wanting a Yorkshire free of the UK and EU seems the only sane option.

kelvin – Member

You did misunderstand I’m afraid Del. NATO want members spending 2% of GDP on defense, not 2% of government expenditure.

It’s all bogus though, because the “defense” budget of each country contains, and is spent on, very different things.

Yup. Frinstance, we have a load of american VA students studying here on full scholarships- that’s defence funding, by the US definition. Upkeep of USS Constitution? Defence funding. I reckon it’ll just lead to lots of moving things around in budgets and other accounting tricks.

Hmm, I would prefer a Yorkshire free of the UK but very much a part of the EU – celebrating our historic ties with Scandinavia and the Hanseatic League.

Hmm, I would prefer a Yorkshire free of the UK but very much a part of the EU – celebrating our historic ties with Scandinavia and the Hanseatic League.

It’s Ok many would appreciate a UK free of yorkshire

It’s not as if Germany is short of cash and the immigrants are creating an economic boom which is resulting in record tax revenues without increasing tax rates:

Record German tax receipts

Agree with above comments on USA food production standards but are we so sure that Europe is much better?

Latest example of poor animal welfare here:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=178919

just5minutes – Member
Agree with above comments on USA food production standards but are we so sure that Europe is much better?

Because that is the exception not the rule. It’s also not pumped full of hormones.

Jamba, a large chunk of the govt contrib comes straight back in grants etc. The net effect is much smaller.

We have never been on the hook – we are not part of the Euro Zone. We did help last time and got our money back.

We are xposed economically to any weakness in the EZ irrespective our membership of the EU. Is silly to celebrate weakness there.

Agree with above comments on USA food production standards but are we so sure that Europe is much better?

Have you been there? As in, to supermarkets shopping for your own food? It’s dreadful and sodding expensive too.

The economic case is that the UK will be much better off trading with India then the largest trading bloc in the world.

Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India?

@slowoldman. A Free Yorkshire is an in or out question, just remember them there vikings did not visit for a bit of church gold and a shag. They were slave traders and Yorkshire was a good source of raw materials to sell to parts of Europe, bit like now really.

@mikewsmith, we can count on your vote then. You’ll be buying the Landlord when tha visits.

Mike +1

Just5minutes – my wife, who is qualified to Masters level in animal welfare, worked on welfare for a meat producer and now works in marketing in the food industry could give you chapter and verse on this.

However in précis, don’t confuse food standards about whether something is fit for human consumption / good or bad for you with welfare standards which are about whether an animal was treated in a reasonable way prior to slaughter.

Death itself is not regarded by those in the know as a welfare issue, but her MSc thesis was on welfare at slaughter – which involved amongst taking blood samples for analysis seconds after slaughter. Far tougher than me she is.

Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India? [/I]

Stop bringing in facts at this late stage, we’ve got to this point by ignoring them…

Or just compare ourselves to Germany, they don’t seem to have trouble exporting to non-EU countries:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports

Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India?

I thought any deal by a EU member state had to be agreed by all other 27 countries? and that’s why everything takes an age to sort out?