EU Referendum – are you in or out?

tjagain

Member
Eat the pudding from their website – I cannot find the figure in their polling. Perhaps its buried as bad news but everything they are posting on the polling suggests otherwise> Do you have a link?
Scotland will become an independent country
63% Agree / 37% Disagree. – mibbe

There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next two years
Likely: 48% / Unlikely: 44% – mibbe, but unlikely in the short term unless the scottish gov take a unilateral approach

There will be another referendum on Scottish independence in the next five years
Likely: 59% / Unlikely: 32% – unlikely

There should be another referendum on Scottish independence
61% Agree / 39% Disagree – agree

None of those question has anything to do with voting intentions.

It’s still sitting about 45/55% +/-3%. It’s still an absolute gamble to go for independence. Plus brexit will just make the UK gov more entrenched, so the won’t allow it. So it’s over to sturgeon to pull some kinda magic rabbit out the hat if it’s going to happening in the next 10 years.

I suspect people thinking Scotland will be an EU life raft in the short term will be disappointed.

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So, to recap we have Mark Francois bleating on about “the will of the people”, seemingly unaware as to the whole point of a parliamentary democracy.

Jacob Rees-Mogg is sharing far-right AfD videos on twitter.

The EU is unlikely to grant a long extension to Article 50 unless we have a viable, workable plan which could include a GE (which based on current polling data would result in a hung parliament), or a People’s Vote (which will require time to implement, putting us in EU elections territory in May).

Meanwhile, my MP has refused to guarantee that my stepson will have uninterrupted access to insulin in event of No-Deal. If he goes without insulin for a few days, he’ll die.

So yes, emotions are running fairly high right now.

seosamh77

I agree – but I couldn’t find on that website the 60/40 against eat the pudding quoted and looking into those figures I did think has been a bit of collating to get the answers they want.
Got a link to the numbers you give? Genuinely interested and I can’t find any.

I agree another ref on independence is not likely in the near future – at least in part because unlike Salmond who is a gambler, Sturgeon is cautious by nature

The most likely way of getting “permission” from westminster ( which is an abhorrent idea to me) is another GE a hung parliament and that is Sturgeons price for a supply and confidence deal

So shirt extension to A50 to sit down with Corbyn, where he will agree to May’s deal?

Seven hours for that?

Agreed, wtf, all day in a meeting & their solution is try & blame labour?

Yep, at this rate we will have an agreement in time to decide which bit of Mars we can live on.

Some language things really – we must do this to avoid having EU Elections IE we are probably preparing to concede we will have to

Some you gov poll results on R4 today
25% support for No Deal/75% Oppose though Leavers moving towards No Deal
No Overall support for any option to leave
Strong support for 2nd Ref & Remain

No cabinet ministers going to comment by the looks of it

If Corbyn has any balls, he’d walk out after 20 minutes, and say she’s on her own.

QUIET PLEASE!

What’s that? Could it be? Why yes it is!

Ah, the familiar sound of a can being kicked down the road.

If Watson and Starmer have any common sense they will not let him go on his own and do all the talking.

Checkw:

As for Northern Ireland that is the family feud that they need to settle themselves. No amount of world intervention can solve that.

They were sorting it. World intervention was helping. Give it a few years of stability and turnover of the generations enjoying the peace and move it forward again.

The current situation is tearing all of that up. The ignorance and lack of interest and compassion shown is doing real damage, and risks starting the cycle again for another generation.

So shirt extension to A50 to sit down with Corbyn, where he will agree to May’s deal?

Well,first off if he turns up 😉 He’ll state what he thinks should be in the deal and she’ll pretend to listen,make a few notes,smile and say thank you Jeremy.Then hastliy arrange a a date in parliament for yet another vote on her withdrawal deal,MV4 but this time with some kisses and LOL on the bottom to get it past Bercow.

Even if, after today, we don’t know what the end result will be, let us be patient. #Brexit

— Charles Michel (@eucopresident) April 2, 2019

EU seem to be happy to listen

This debate, this division, cannot drag on much longer. It is putting members of Parliament and everyone else under immense pressure and it is doing damage to our politics.

I think that just about sums up what a bubble these **** are living in.

May and Corbyn? The dream team! A masterclass in open, creative and imaginative free-thinking. I’m sure it’ll be sorted in no time….

My money is on him turning up with Seamus Milne but not Kier Starmer. Same as last time. Or him not actually bothering

At least the Gov is moving behind IV and says it will abide by the result.

Well some more interesting chat going on
– How can May commit to something she will not be in charge of – she agreed to resign for her party
– Chance of Labour trying a VoNC if the ERG explode later on this evening – see the Chequers fall out
– May thinks she is setting a trap – Labour think she is walking into theirs

I would be expecting the opposition to request the full no deal advice published today – (probably code named project fear v53)

I seem to have a different take on this to many. I actually think thats a pretty statesperson like statement from May – a damn shame she didn’t take this road two years ago.

Now Corbyn holds all the cards. Loyalists in both partys could easily command a majority if both leaders go for it

So will Corbyn have the guts to continue on the line labour have taken and indeed offered recently. Accept the WA and political statement so long as its subject to a confirmatory referendum? Perhaps with the future relationship to be the softest of soft brexits Basically Turkeys deal. ( contrary to hwhat many on her has kept claiming Turkey is in A customs union with the EU but not THE customs union so that is possible)

Personally I think its right that Corbyn does this but the price MUST be a second ref with remain as an option so a stright binary question. Mays WA + future softest of soft brexits or revoke.

NO second ref but he still agrees? Then I shall join the Corbyn haters

We all know a second ref will be a big majority for remain and then we can go full on Dallas and pretend it never happened

kimbers

Subscriber
Agreed, wtf, all day in a meeting & their solution is try & blame labour?

My thoughts exactly as soon as I heard it. Simply trying to shift the blame onto Labour.

Fast forward to 21 mins, will self v francois! 😆

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLp6PpqpWjg

I seem to have a different take on this to many. I actually think thats a pretty statesperson like statement from May – a damn shame she didn’t take this road two years ago.

If she had said this before revoking A50 then we could have called it stateperson like, at this point it’s nothing other than looking for only one exit that doesn’t involved a massive explosion in the tory party – this will deliver a decent sized one though.

Taking this option now is simply that she has been worn down enough to finally see it’s the only sensible option.

She is a defacto Lame Duck here

Now Corbyn holds all the cards. Loyalists in both partys could easily command a majority if both leaders go for it

Only is he reads them.

So will Corbyn have the guts to continue on the line labour have taken and indeed offered recently. Accept the WA and political statement so long as its subject to a confirmatory referendum?

He keeps seeming to forget that the policy is for a 2nd ref, he forgot to mention it in his speech last night too.

Even if a hard border in Ireland isn’t explicitly illegal because of the GFA currently, it’s illegal because of the WA which expressly precludes it.

—

There’s lots of people with crystal balls posting over the last couple of pages. Here’s where I see we are. There may be other things in the interim – delays, elections, referendums, whatever – but ultimately we’ll have to choose from one of three options:

1) Leave with no deal. There is little appetite in Parliament for this because most if not all know it would be ruinous for the country.

2) Leave with a deal, either May’s or Something Else, red unicorns maybe. There is little appetite in Parliament for this because the uncomfortable truth is that even if we had a blank slate to write any sort of fairy story deal we could think of which gave us the absolute best deal we could possibly imagine, it’s still worse than the deal we currently have. If we could keep all the benefits of being an EU member state but lose our say in what goes on within the EU… well, who actually wants that? Not leavers, not remainers.

3) Revoke A50 and remain in the EU. There is little appetite in Parliament for this because, oh I don’t know, something something will of the people sovereignty democracy something.

Until one of these three things change, we are at an impasse. Deadlocked, paralysed, adrift, irrespective of what the EU27 may or may not hypothetically agree to even. Three years since the referendum and several days after we’re supposed to have actually left, our parliament still cannot agree on what they actually want to ask for. It’s a completely, utterly ludicrous and impossible situation of our own making.

Polishing my own balls of crystal, I’d put good money on “what happens next?” being yet more delaying tactics, because if there’s one thing this government has been good at for the last three years (other than trying to bypass parliamentary democracy at every turn) it’s trying to find absolutely anything else to do other than address the in-house pachyderm* I’ve just spoken about. They seem to be hoping that if they wait long enough then the problem will magically resolve itself or otherwise just go away. And to be honest there’s some sort of perverse logic to this: the longer they leave it, the more chance the gammons will either get bored or die off making it a much easier sell to the less-rabid majority of the electorate to have the lame mule that is brexit taken out to pasture and do the humane thing.

So yeah. I’m pretty certain that the next step will be to request an extension and potentially quite a long one. Maybe until the year 2100 in the hope that Schrodinger’s Borders have been invented by then.

By which time of course, everyone with any money or talent will have ****ed off to somewhere less rainy and then we’re screwed anyway even if we eventually do call the whole thing off. We’ll have gone from being the sick man of Europe 40 years ago to being the B-ark or Europe 50 years later, via being the 5th largest economy in the world along the way. And for what, blue sodding passports and chlorinated chicken. What a time to be alive.

(* – not Mark Francois.)

Polishing my own balls of crystal, I’d put good money on “what happens next?” being yet more delaying tactics, because if there’s one thing this government has been good at for the last three years (other than trying to bypass parliamentary democracy at every turn) it’s trying to find absolutely anything else to do other than address the in-house pachyderm*

There is one way, and I know it’s not the one you fancy and others deny but it’s the risk it option of pass the deal that nobody wants and put it to the people – Corbyn will have the options to tag stuff on at this point you would hope and in return for 200 good votes May can shuffle off to the wheat fields she is pining over.

well put !

I agree with most of what Cougar has said, except for the notion that there’s an opportunity to kick the can even further down the road, the EU are clear that we can seek a temporary extension in event of an election or a referendum. May herself wants to avoid EU elections on the 23rd May.

All she’s doing is to try to obtain Corbyn’s support, wit minimal concessions and certainly nothing that can’t be torn up by her likely ERG successor.

I can’t see Jezza being daft enough to go along with it, but it could be his opportunity to tip us into a GE.

like more seats on trains for instance?

Well Mogg isn’t happy, so this is automatically a good turn of events.

ERG chairman and leading Tory Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has has described Theresa May’s statement as “deeply unsatisfactory” and claimed her new approach “lacks democratic legitimacy”.

He said: “People did not vote for a Corbyn-May coalition government – they voted for a Conservative government, which became a confidence and supply with the DUP.

“This is a deeply unsatisfactory approach.

“It’s not in the interests of the country, it fails to deliver on the referendum result and history doesn’t bode well for it.”

ah the Moggster and his quaint view of what democracy means, people voted for not enough MP’s from his party who then had to beg and bribe their way into power and are falling apart is a better description.

I agree with most of what Cougar has said, except for the notion that there’s an opportunity to kick the can even further down the road,

I said that I thought we’d likely request one. I made no comments as to whether or not I thought such a thing would be granted. (-:

I think I said on about page 200 and again on 1000 (and others probably did too elsewhere).Even Cougar actually agreed and TJ has just said similar now as well.The best we can aim for is a customs type union BUT not the customs union(May’s red line!!!) but with the flexibility to negotiate our own trade deals.The current paralysis is largely due to the lack of a majority in the HoC and our FPP system makes our politicians seemingly unable to negotiate across the floor for the common good.IIRC the UK is the only country in the EU that doesn’t have a PR type electoral system and that’s why the EU think we’re bonkers because it’s something they manage to do all the time.

A long extention works, cause tbh, the last referendum becomes less legitimate as time goes. so even there’s a 2 year extention. It’s not really democracy to get held to a vote you had 5 years ago. So there will need to be a revote regardless.

I’m pretty certain this is the road they are taking us down. None of them want the wrath of the brexiters coming back to bit them on the arse. So they’ll ultimately put it back. But they need time to legitimise handing it back.

Utter careerists and shitebags, if the truth be told.

Cougar actually agreed and TJ has just said similar now as well.The best we can aim for is a customs type union BUT not the customs union(May’s red line!!!) but with the flexibility to negotiate our own trade deals.

I think for a majority of the population remain would be the best we could hope for actually 😉

As for Customs “Type” Union is that another unicorn?

Yeh. Let a bit of entropy take effect, another 6 months should be adequate to table a retraction.

It’s just convincing the EU to extend the deadline… A pointless GE might well buy that time.

As for Customs “Type” Union is that another unicorn?

Time will tell but the HoC came close to supporting the custom’s union intheir indicative vote thingy.

I think for a majority of the population remain would be the best we could hope for actually 😉

IIRC their was a big vote about this awhile back wasn’t there? 😉

I said that I thought we’d likely request one. I made no comments as to whether or not I thought such a thing would be granted. (-:

I stand corrected!

I suspect that you’re right.

It’s a trap

If we don’t pass legislation to take part in EU elections by next Friday, we’re out on 22 May with no deal unless May’s deal is approved

Time will tell but the HoC came close to supporting the custom’s union intheir indicative vote thingy.

That would be the difference between The Customs Union and A Customs union then.

As for the vote it makes no difference how the referendum to kick off the process went, it’s how the question would be answered now that really matters – the question everyone is too scared to ask.

On the trap thing that is kind of why it needs to be sorted to pass it with amendments or to send if off properly with legislation.
Of course it’s now up to the super sharp Labour A team to deal with this…..

If we don’t pass legislation to take part in EU elections by next Friday, we’re out on 22 May with no deal unless May’s deal is approved

I don’t see why that’s a big issue from a UK perspective.. Am I missing something? Get extension, vote in EU elections (how very undemocratic lol!).
If our intention is to leave, then voting in EU elections is just a rubber stamping exercise, going through the motions as it were.

Revoke.

Read the link!