EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Very solid numbers for the CU, SM/CU and Conf Vote, all more popular than May’s deal as options.

Other way round mike,May’s MV 3 got 286,that’s more votes than anything tonight.

thesquaredog

Member
So why did the SNP abstain from the Customs Union vote?

Freedom of movement most likely.

Visual chart of the votes.

Check out @MShepheard’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/MShepheard/status/1112833986680840193?s=09

Basically the Tories blocking everything.

So what do the Tories actually want?

Why did Labour abstain?

Because even the very worst Brexit is better than no Brexit.

Ok thanks Kelvin.

Looks like we are heading out with no deal now IMHO. Unlikely we will get consensus before the deadline and I fear the EU will refuse to extend.

couldn’t care less about the citizenship aspect

Not true up here, quite important to most people I speak to.. I don’t want to give up the EU citizenship, and I’m not going to either.

Why did Labour abstain?

Simple, labour are pitching themselves as the compromise party looking for a way to implement the referendum result in a way that’s acceptable to the majority. Revocation is incompatible with that. Also, there will be more opportunities to avoid no deal. Revocation is the very last resort and still a possibility, more likely is a no confidence vote and an election. In that scenario the EU will grant another extension. In short, labour’s calculation is political advantage vs a small risk of no deal. No doubt many will disagree with that, but no party is above their own political interest in this, hence why the SNP voted against the customs union.

Basically the Tories blocking everything.

Well, apart from Labour abstentions meaning that Parliament having the power to revoke A50 at last minute if required was rejected.

Take back control.

no deal now IMHO.

Nah, the law can quite easily be changed.

tbh I think something will be agreed, but would rather it came down to a binary choice, cause they won’t chose no deal under those circumstances. If they are too shit scared to revoke themselves, they will put it back to a vote.

Other way round mike,May’s MV 3 got 286,that’s more votes than anything tonight.

Ah yes, only have the bill though 😉

To also add that is without the Cabinet who could sway that and bring others with them.

Despite all the talk of no compromise, plenty are offering the PM a simple way out – Take a Deal and put it to the people – the WA would be voted through by the end of the week if she took that exit. What’s another u turn between friends 🙂

I think its going to be a no deal

I cant imagine the EU have much patience left

the hard brexiteers seem to have won

looking for a way to implement the referendum result in a way that’s acceptable to the majority.

WAKEY **** WAKEY!

Outline what that looks like, so it can be scrutinised.
Then ask for a majority to back it in a referendum.
Everything else is just politicians dicking around with our countries.
We won’t thank those playing games this late in the day.

I think its going to be a no deal

I cant imagine the EU have much patience left

the hard brexiteers seem to have won

It may be optimism on my part but that has such little support in parliament it will not get pushed through by simply running the clock down.
At this point May has no majority, the DUP do not support her and as she is finished can’t give them anything.

If no deal is the final option I fully expect the government to fall if they try and blunder through it.

It may be optimism on my part but that has such little support in parliament it will not get pushed through by simply running the clock down.

How will parliament stop it? Given that they can’t even back an indicative vote suggesting that they should have the power to do so?

I think its going to be a no deal

I would hope not but I can think of several occasions in history where governments blundered into seriously detrimental situations due to being overtaken by events and just reacting.
The worrying thing is how many tory MPs have gone full loony tunes and started worshipping the idea of no deal.

Other way round mike,May’s MV 3 got 286,that’s more votes than anything tonight.

And how many votes were against it?

Let’s wait it happens.
It’s like a time dilation, the closer it gets, the more it slows down. It’s almost like.. What’s that film?

Or they could just do the enevitable, a binary choice in commons, or call a binary referendum between no deal or revoke.

Anything else is just pissing about.

How will parliament stop it? Given that they can’t even back an indicative vote suggesting that they should have the power to do so?

Bring down the government – they are in a serious minority state now

Other way round mike,May’s MV 3 got 286,that’s more votes than anything tonight.

because May insisted all those on the government payroll – around 100mps abstain or lose their jobs. simply so she could say this.

Bring down the government

Who then stops no deal, and how?

Think this political mess could easily be resolved:) If the remainers in parliament of all parties swallow the fact that we voted to leave rather than continuing to resist and calling for a re run (which I understand is difficult) then they could support May’s withdrawal deal BUT with amendments about environmental and worker’s rights and also that when the important bits of the future relationship are negotiated with the EU ie all these possible options that are being discussed at present ,then they have to be agreed by parliament and if necessary the final deal agreed by a referendum.This would sideline the extremist hard Brexit elements like the ERG and DUP.Yes there’s still the backstop issue but all the other options except being in the singlemarket mean a hard border and if we’re in the singlemarket then we’re not really leaving.I’m no fan of the Tories and May has been a disaster but if the EU think the withdrawal deal is fair why not trust them?

Conservative “remainers” keep voting for May’s deal… including Boles, who has had to now leave the party despite backing the PM!

Who then stops no deal, and how?

At that point somebody had to ask the eu for more time (ge was always going.to be one they would agree to) or somebody has to call it off. That is where somebody has to get creative, although no deal is the default it has nowhere.near enough support.

If may brings mv4 then stuff can be amended to that.

At that point somebody had to ask the eu for more time (ge was always going.to be one they would agree to) or somebody has to call it off.

Who, how, when?

Seriously, if May’s government falls just before we about to leave on no deal, who steps in and prevents it? And how? I’m not asking for a prediction of what will actually happen, just an outline of any possible solution if we get to that point.

If the remainers in parliament of all parties swallow the fact that we voted to leave rather than continuing to resist and calling for a re run (which I understand is difficult) then they could support May’s withdrawal deal BUT with amendments

For a people’s vote to check the people who we keep invoking are happy to pass it.

@kelvin I’m not enough of an expert on the rules of parliament. Who in there is going to let no deal go through?

If in the event of a successful vote of no confidence a group could obtain a majority they could represent us. May could concede also.

continuing to resist and calling for a re run

It’s not a **** re-run!

Who in there is going to let no deal go through?

It’s going through. Now, who steps in if May’s government fails, and how do they get the bill changed, and what do they offer the EU for an extension, and how and when do they get that agreed in parliament?

Who, how, when?

Theresa May. If she loses a no confidence vote, which now looks very likely, she will remain PM until a new govt is formed or it’s dissolved in 14 days. She’ll have no option but to ask for another extension.

The British establishment needs to arrive at critical mass before anything happens.

No deal vs revoke.
Via parliamentary vote or people’s vote.

Bring it. (should have been done 2 years ago, but, well we all know the story).

Also I think there are more leave voters who want to be out as a matter of principle than the opposite.

And I think the reverse is true. But this boils down to what you think vs what I think, it’s almost like we need to find out for sure, hmm…?

If the remainers in parliament of all parties swallow the fact that we voted to leave

1) “we” didn’t vote to leave, half of the people who actually voted did so.

2) At the risk of repeating myself, “so what?”

Theresa May. If she loses a no confidence vote, which now looks very likely, she will remain PM until a new govt is formed or it’s dissolved in 14 days. She’ll have no option but to ask for another extension.

Why would she? Who will make her? What does she offer the EU for an extension, and how does she demonstrate she has the backing of parliament?

If we can have faith in anything, we can have faith that Labour and Conservatives are too shit scared to do anything unless they are forced like a rat into a corner to make a decision.

For a people’s vote to check the people who we keep invoking are happy to pass it.

mike if you mean a referendum on the withdrawal agreement YES or NO then that’s a theoretical possibility but parliament has not legislated for that and none of the main parties promised one in their manifesto.And the no deal clock is ticking and the EU might take it out of parliament’s hands….

Why would she? Who will make her? What does she offer the EU for an extension, and how does she demonstrate she has the backing of parliament?

Why? To avoid going down as the worst pm on record. Possibly because she knows the outcome of that and had an ounce of decency left. Possibly because enough MPs compel her to.
What does she offer the eu? To **** off and leave the process.
Backing of parliament? She doesn’t need.to show that, what she shows is there is no support and we need to start again or call it off. To do either we need.to.consult the people so a long extension is required.

Those are all plausible and sensible reasons and ways forward. If you have decided no deal is inevitable then it won’t change your mind. Others still see a way out.

@nick it becomes legislated by passing her wa with that as an ammendment. At this stage frankly who gives a **** what was in the manifesto – I shall be explaining to any party door knockers that a vote for them doesn’t endorse the entire document from me.
It is current Labour policy and to be Frank if the tories cannot adapt to a changing situation they are the wrong people to be dealing with this. Why the fear of vote on the withdrawal act vs remain? Its the choice to be made.

And they’ve both been cornerd for some time now…

If you have decided no deal is inevitable then it won’t change your mind.

I haven’t decided no deal is inevitable. MPs could have voted today to try and claim the power to prevent it. They may still wake up, ignore whips, and do so. But sacking the government does not result in no deal being prevented by magic. And by magic, I mean our current PM deciding to act for the nation and not for her party. No deal is the most popular option for Tory MPs and members.

Parliament as a whole needs to start putting in place measures to stop no deal… if they take it to the wire hoping that May does what they think is the right thing to do, they could be in for a nasty shock.

Why would she?

Because it it will be her duty in the plain best interests of the country. Also she’s already going to be branded the worst PM in history, you think she wants to also be blamed for singlehandedly crashing the economy?

1) “we” didn’t vote to leave, half of the people who actually voted did so.

2) At the risk of repeating myself, “so what?”

Really Cougar?? Have a word with yourself.
Maybe we should just invoke no deal,it didn’t get a majority in parliament but so what?

But sacking the government does not result in no deal being prevented by magic.

No but if she loses a confidence vote there are then two options for her or a new PM to enact before the 11th:

1. Request a further extension to enable the new govt to propose a new solution.

2. If the eu refuses an extension, revoke or leave with no deal. If it gets to this I reckon it’ll be put to Parliament and they’ll vote to revoke. It’ll be a very last resort though.