Official STW General Election Night thread

I’m up at 5am for a 6hr drive to Glentress, the radio is going to be interesting.

Having thought about it more, given the predicted result, it’s actually kind of difficult though for her to go quickly. Because we can’t have a complete vacuum, there has to be a PM and any replacement from within the Tories kind of needs to know they have the support of parliament behind them when they go begging to the Queen. I’m not sure of the exact mechanism, but this is also problematic.

In a way as much as I’d be glad to be rid of her quickly, there will be a certain pleasure in her having to “enjoy” the fruits of her hubris.

Interesting that the final polls were massively wrong if the exit poll is to be trusted

I’m listening on R4. Its come up that one of TMs slogans was “If Jeremy Corbyn gains just 6 seats he’ll be negotiating Brexit” lol

Either way May’s gone in the morning, surely? I mean if she ends up with anything less than the majority she started with, that’s got to be her falling on her sword

Hope so.

Maybe we can ask the EU something along the lines of “can you just park that silly letter for a bit as we have got to get our own house in order first?”

Any blow landed on the Tories improves the potential to get a grip on the Brexit fiasco and slam the brakes on, maybe even hit reverse. Hope springs eternal.

And it would be lovely, wouldn’t it? The French turn away fro their new-fascist, we reject our own lurch to selfish and insular right wing politics, Trump is impeached!

Then the real people can say to the neo-fascists “you thought you had it sown up, yet it’s gone to shit in less than 18 months. Now go away.”

Sterling down? Not compared to the Tory/UKIP led fiasco last June, so a small price to pay.

I have a week booked in france at the end of August which just got a bit more expensive.

It’ll be worth every **** penny. 😆

[on a purely personal level you understand 🙂 ]

Despite the occasional slight inaccuracy, exit polls have historically been way more accurate than pre-election polls, even in 92

If I remember correctly – dont the brexit negotiations start on the same day as the scheduled state opening of parliament?
What happens?

I think Brexit was won because a huge amount of people did not bother voting as they thought it was a sure thing that it would never go through.

I think those people have now got off of their arses and voted against the people who brought us the Brexit fiasco.

Seriously, I think we’re all being a bit optimistic here.
Let’s just wait and see before cracking open the bubbly just yet……..

I’d think the only possible party which might consider a coalition deal with the Conservatives this time is one of the Irish Unionist parties – but then between them they didn’t win enough seats last time to form a majority if the 314 prediction is correct (10 Unionist seats, leaving them still a couple short). That’s even if such a coalition wouldn’t be full of trouble given how NI voted on Brexit and has big ongoing issues with it.

IIRC, the unionist parties wet their pants in anticipation after the 2010 election before they were jilted at the alter in favour of nick clegg

Having thought about it more, given the predicted result, it’s actually kind of difficult though for her to go quickly. Because we can’t have a complete vacuum,

Agreed, but she will have NO mandate to stay, can she really go to the EU in 11days and negotiate anything?

Another general election next month? Best of three?

We can go into completion with Belgium and Italy for the most dysfunctional government in Europe.

thecaptain – Member
Don’t forget the Tories pretty much get 9 or 10 Irish votes (MPs) too so they don’t need an official majority to have a workable go

yip an utter nightmare scenario that. please god no.

as lets remember the magic number isn’t the advertised 326, it’s really 324. So tories getting 314 up to the majority is terrifying.

Either way May’s gone in the morning, surely? I mean if she ends up with anything less than the majority she started with

I would say she will be needing 50+ seats to avoid being left in a room with the bottle of whisky and a revolver.
If the exit poll is even as far out as last time round she is toast. Unless no one wants the poisoned chalice and so she gets to remain as a neutered figurehead.

aracer IIRC- the biggest party puts up a budget / queens speech and its gets voted on. If it passes they are the government if it doesn’t the next biggest party gets a shot

However no one will put up a programme until they are sure it will get passed

The tories are ruthless. I am sure May will jump before she is pushed and that will happen quickly if no increased majority. The only thing that might save her is the european negotiatins start next week so a small majority even with the unionists might do

eskay – Member
I think Brexit was won because a huge amount of people did not bother voting as they thought it was a sure thing that it would never go through.

I think those people have now got off of their arses and voted against the people who brought us the Brexit fiasco.

POSTED 46 SECONDS AGO # REPORT-POST

Spot on.

Again, I’ll preface this with “if the exit polls are accurate”, but I’m really struggling to work out what happens now with Brexit. It seems likely we’ll have to do something like that whether we want to or not – certainly there appears no possibility of starting on negotiations any time in the next few weeks. Who knows, maybe you’re right and it really does make a Brexit reverse possible.

Where is Jamba BTW?

life long tory on 5live talking about voting labour first time ever 😯

So tories getting 314 up to the majority is terrifying.

they started off expecting about 400+ MPs so its not actually terrifying

Seriously, I think we’re all being a bit optimistic here.

we are but lets enjoy it like a drunken night great at the time and the regrets come later:wink:

I think I’d rather watch golf than watch the election results, dull, dull, dull….

I posted that on an earlier thread, but this has actually got interesting! My constituency has apparently changed from Tory to labour, I didn’t see that coming!!

😀

Rumor has it that Amber Rudd is looking vulnerable

In a lock in with ninfan and chewkw with no internet access …the day just gets better 😆

IF exit poll is right or somewhere close we have real problems – and I am not referring to either of the main parties
No clear winner is untenable for full parliamentary term – coalition or confidence & supply will not provide basis for clear & focussed brexit negotiations.
What a trucking mess.
Lynton Crosby would appear to have pissed on his own chips.

Tories totally in hock to the Ulster Unionists?

Theresa Mayjor?

Where is Jamba BTW?

+1

Probably shuffling his finances to overseas safe havens.

the knives are out for May!

Interesting that the final polls were massively wrong if the exit poll is to be trusted

Indeed although hard to know what the underlying results are as they do so much “adjustment” to get the predictions.

Probably shuffling his finances to overseas safe havens.

We did an investment / pension thread a while ago, I’ve not changed much. Majority US and Asia, significant UK virtually zero rest of Europe. Excludes property.

Sunderland declaring soon

Junkyard – lazarus
So tories getting 314 up to the majority is terrifying.
they started off expecting about 400+ MPs so its not actually terrifying

the dup/uup wagging the tory dog through the brexit negotiation is.

I’d rather an out right tory majority.

Hung parliament was the best we could hope for…

Rumor has it that Amber Rudd is looking vulnerable

She’s useless, it’s just lucky for her that Diane Abbott popped up.

Lynton Crosby would appear to have pissed on his own chips.

Big pay cheque and no allegiance to the UK. He will sod off back to Australia laughing.
It wont look good on the cv but I suspect he will be given a couple more chances.

rene59 – Member

Therfore if both made the election about indyref2 then the SNP won it.

TBH if it’s right, there’s no way to spin it as anything but a marginal win but a terrible night for the SNP and a backlash against indyref 2. But the national stuff is more important- the SNP always made it about a response to a hard brexit. And even if the tories can cobble together a government, it makes an absolute ****up of brexit negotiations. So it may all be moot.

Interesting times. Kind of a disaster for the country today, and every bit of damage is 100% the fault of the Tories, but longer term we could be in a place right now that’s a damn sight less awful than a crushing tory win.

Given predictions, anything the Tories propose won’t pass.

However no one will put up a programme until they are sure it will get passed

Hence we’re in limbo

The only thing that might save her is the european negotiatins start next week so a small majority even with the unionists might do

I’m not so sure even if she gets a majority with them – the Unionists are going to want their say on that given the Ireland situation. Currently predicted NOM even with Unionists, in which case Junker doesn’t have to put up with May again (and it’s probably all on hold).

As I’ve pointed out before, the Tories are who the EU would least like to deal with (apart from UKIP I suppose), so they’ll be helpful towards any alternative.

newcastle 1st

cons 9k
labour 24k
libs 1k
ukip 1k

Indeed although hard to know what the underlying results are as they do so much “adjustment” to get the predictions.

on this occasion though the polling cos stuck to their convictions, hence some v wide range of outcomes forecast, and no hint of the herding that they got grief for last time around.

Exit poll on the other hand is unmolested, and is really collected from those that vote, shortly after they have done so so is usually much closer, but not foolproof.

http://politicalbetting.com/

Still early – postal votes not included in exit poll and they account for 25% of votes, looks like a worse result than expected for Tories – what’s weird is no activists of either main parties picked this up on the ground. No doubt London bad for Tories

Scenario:

Corbyn led coalition of chaos, propped up by Sinn Féin. 😆

Impossible I know, but imagine the froth from our pet Right Wing nut jobs.

it’s actually kind of difficult though for her to go quickly. Because we can’t have a complete vacuum, there has to be a PM

aye, good point.