Donald! Trump!

Google “Red Mirage”.

It helps explain why REP think they’ve won and Trump declares he’s won way before the counting has officially concluded.

We’re the most winningest ever, biggly, Arnold Palmer blah blah blah

I have wondered how unrealistic the Election Night episode of Succession was and what a news outlet “calling” an election for a particular candidate would actually mean. Would the noise and uproar dominate the fact the actual count hadn’t finished and force one candidate into conceding?

One thing is definitely true: the US democratic process is an absolute shambles

The renowned conspiracy theorist and anti vaxer JFK jr is going to be in charge of healthcare in a Trump government.

**insert facepalm gif here**

Seems like the secret to getting a job in any future Trump administration is to tell Trump you want a job and what the job is, even if it means inventing one – and bingo, you have the job. Worked for Elon and worked for JFK jr (He actually made the same approach /offer to the Harris campaign – withdraw from the race in return for a job in her administration – she didn’t return his calls. Trump is JFK’s second choice in a two horse race)

Franky the Heritage Foundation are doing that – carving up a future administration for themselves – knowing full well Trump doesn’t have the first idea who to appoint, or any real interest either.

Wonder what job I could do?

mattyfez
Full Member
Early exit polls look… Good?

I’m really not so sure, of those 3 states only PA records voter party affiliation and even with Republicans voting earlier in bigger numbers than ever the Dems have a 25% advantage in returned ballot, only having a 17% lead implies indies are voting for Trump and/or dems are switching

Not sure I’d trust early exit polls that much, not sure how they capture the data and I’d guess Trump voters less likely to respond

Watching the Panorama programme now. Scary AF.

And he’s actually talking about immigrants affecting bloodlines. You can’t get much more Nazi than that.

Has anyone listened to the Joe Rogan interview?

I keep dipping in and out of it. The only thing I can compare it to is talking to my insane 75 year old mother in law, who rambles on about the most incoherent gibberish imaginable, unable to keep to a consistent theme or story.

Rogan asks Trump what it was like on the very first day he was president.

Trump’s answer was to talk about the former Trump owned hotel he drove past on the way from the inauguration to the Whitehouse, then spend the rest of the question talking about the Lincoln Bedroom in the Whitehouse, with essential details on the length of the bed, the height of the chairs and some of the pictures on the wall.

It’s akin to the response a child would give about their first day at school, or a senile old person talking about their first day in a nursing home.

Has anyone listened to the Joe Rogan interview?

I keep dipping in and out of it.

Notice how often Rogan has to insert a word for Trump so that it seems like his meaningless rambles are actually about something.

Asked for instance regrets/mistakes from his first a presidency. He talks round and round about meaninglessly ‘bad people’ and Rogan has to offer him the word ‘Neo-con’ and then Trump sprinkles that into then next few sentences  so it sounds like he’s actually making a point (and quietly hopes no-one asks him what a Neo con is)

Trump talks about the issue of his rambling – ‘the weave’ – and starts, obviously  to ramble about, it and its going know where and Rogan has to say ‘but you always bring it home’ to give Trump the out – the prompt to say that theres always a point he brings the ramble back to (which in reality there never is)

Of course in 2020 Biden lobbed Trump the words ‘Proud Boys’ in the presidential debate in much the same way. It was like watching someone give a dog a worming tablet wrapped in ham.

Oh I see he’s had JD Vance on now!

I thought Trump came across well on the Joe Rogan podcast, sense of humour, something missing from any interviews I’ve seen with Harris or Walz.

The Joe Rogan interview with Musk is worth a listen too. My money is on Trump to win.

I prefer my rapist criminal friends to have a sense of humour too! Somehow makes it alright when they’re leering at my daughter.

@Kurtan – another new user with only two comments on political threads.

Oh I see he’s had JD Vance on now!

its actually a slot he’d offered to Harris. She didn’t turn it down but would only accept if he came to her to interview her rather than he go to him in Texas (on account of the whole travelling around the country campaigning in an election thing) so he cancelled it be didn’t want to leave his studio to do it.

Trump, by comparison, did the interview at Rogan’s studio in Texas  even though he had a rally scheduled in Michigan (a mere 1200 miles away)  at the same time and instead of cancelling or postponing it just left his supporters standing about in the cold for hours.

Still – gives Vance a chance to answer a range of questions of controversial Trump related topics by saying he didn’t see anything and doesn’t know anything about it.

on account of the whole travelling around the country campaigning in an election thing

She was in Texas though, that is where her no sing Beyonce rally was.

Trump seems super relaxed, his Rogan interview has been very well received, he was very funny talking about the Garbage truck photo op – very self deprecating, which I haven’t seen before.  My guess is his campaign are pretty confident and therefore I expect a Trump victory.

@moab…Full member though…

Weird

As long as they support the site.

Cough*cough musks billions making an actual impact.

I see Putin Bot farmers are back

Still – gives Vance a chance to answer a range of questions of controversial Trump related topics by saying he didn’t see anything and doesn’t know anything about it.

On the trump one, when Rogan asked him if he’d lost, he (Rogan ) prefaced it by saying JD Vance had a brilliant response when he was asked as apparently he said “Can you prove that there weren’t things that were done to influence the result?”

A slew of highly rated pollsters breaking for Trump today

Its certainly looking better for him

At this point I think dems only hope is that women break heavily fir Harris, but there’s plenty of GOP/MAGA women out there

Putin & Musk will be immensely pleased

There’s been a lot more “be wary of predictions” chat lately, the shifts in early voting are causing a lot of reaction but nobody’s actually sure what they mean, and there’s a good chance they mean nothing at all- republicans always have lower early voting and Trump amplified that and has now backpedalled on it, and while republican share has grown numbers overall have fallen, and seem to be reverting to more traditional early voters ie older, whiter. There’s also a lot of stories about burning of mailboxes etc which are bound to drive some people away from mail-ins. So it’s entirely possible that it’s no more than a shift of voting method with no shift in voting intention, with a chunk of reversion to the mean built in, and none of the wider data collection seems to be at all conclusive on that. But few public pollster/talking heads want to be loudly saying “we don’t know” right now, the nature of the beast in america is it’s better to be strong and wrong than indecisive but smart. I’m pretty much just putting it under “who really knows”, it’s much like us in recent years, there’s not as good a basis for polling as there once was, trumpism and the pandemic and increasing radicalisation and motivation have screwed with so many of the pillars.

In the absence of big swings, large undecided blocs, “quakes” and “october surprises” etc and a lot of other perennial headline favourites, it’s also one of the few talking points that remains and also easy to understand and write headlines about, regardless of how flimsy it might prove to be. And of course it was made much more “interesting” with Trump’s cult pretending it had fraud issues etc.

MSP
Full Member

But is that appealing to new voters? From what I can tell his whole campaign is preaching to the converted, given the numbers of public anti Trump republicans, I just don’t see how he is attracting new voters.

There just aren’t many real floating voters/undecideds left at this point and it’s getting very hard to target them, because they’re all either very disengaged from mainstream politics or total bloody idiots (and not just that, but bloody idiots who aren’t as influenced by all the normal stuff targeting total bloody idiots).

But for sure after a few efforts at broadening his interest Trump is all-in on preaching to the crowd now and it’s really hard to think it’s not going to be damaging, that new york rally thing felt like either they’ve decided they can’t lose and were doing a victory lap, or they’ve decided they’re going to lose and are positioning for that. the puerto rico stuff just doesn’t make any sense in a real ongoing campaign, it can’t possibly win him votes at this point and there’s no doubt at all it can lose them.

Unless there’s something smarter and subtler behind the scenes and it turns out that in one of the swing states there’s a democrat wedge that hates puerto ricans. But that seems pretty unlikely.

A slew of highly rated pollsters breaking for Trump today

Its certainly looking better for him

Not really. The polls are basically saying that it’s too close to predict. The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it’s difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout. That’s an impossible task, so a lead of 1% or 2% in a poll just doesn’t mean anything as a prediction. For example, there are a lot of Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania and other swing states. It’s possible that Trump’s racist nonsense has antagonized them and they will turn out in large numbers to vote for Harris, but we just don’t know. Harris might win in a landslide, even though the polls say it’s a coin toss, or Trump might cruise to an easy win. We just don’t know and a tiny swing in the polls just doesn’t mean anything.

 The problem with any poll is that it is a sample of the population, but it’s difficult to get a sample that is representative of the people who will turn out to vote. The pollsters have to try to predict the rates at which different groups will vote (e.g. college educated women, black males, etc.) and then adjust the poll data to reflect the predicted turnout.

Yeah, but everyone on my social media feeds say they’re voting Trump so it must be right!

For example, there are a lot of Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania and other swing states. It’s possible that Trump’s racist nonsense has antagonized them and they will turn out in large numbers to vote for Harris, but we just don’t know.

I asked my American mate about this. His response was:

That’s the problem. No one here speaks Spanish except people who we all assumed were Mexican. So we have no way of knowing any of this.

… he’s a rare example of an American with an acute sense of irony.