Donald! Trump!

Says an awful lot about the nation and its level of education and critical thinking.

Keep ’em stupid and angry and you can control them easily, I think that’s also a philosophy in the UK to a certain extent.

Sometimes I think that if the USA didn’t speak English it wouldn’t all seem so depressingly ghastly.

But they do, so it does

Watching the orange monkey blathering on another immigrants eating cats it’s difficult to argue with the Daily Stars appraisal of him from a few years back

I’m incredulous that nearly half of Americans think an absolute loon like him is even in with a look in at becoming president again. It’s absolutely insane!

I agree that it is insane but he’s in with a very real chance of being President again. It would be funny if it didn’t have potential global repercussions.

The VP is on top of the trolling at Blue Sky

Someone has also done this

Last few polls are showing Harris national poll lead gone, with Trump leading in several , she needs to to be +4 nationally to take the electoral college and is an uphill slog

That’s not what I’m seeing. 538 has her maintaining a steady 3% lead over the honey monster. There’s a couple that are more favourable to him, a couple that give her 5%. Also, a lot of the polls are also deliberately correcting for the Trump denial factor, ie people not wanting to admit that they’re gonna vote for him, on the basis that they badly underestimated this factor in 2016 & 2020, which meant he actually got more votes than predicted. Hopefully this anomaly has been dealt with.

Regardless the only polls that really count are the swing states. If she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she’s basically there. They’re all eminently winnable, particularly if the dems get the youngsters and ethnic minorities in the cities out to vote.

By all accounts the Dems have massive, professionally run operations in each of the swing states. The GOP was taken over by the Trump lot and unsurprisingly the feedback is they’re badly prepared and essentially relying on local red hats to do the work for them (read amateurs who don’t know what they’re doing) in return for some shiny DT merch.

I’m hopeful

in return for some shiny DT merch.

Where do I sign Cletus?

Superficial
Free Member

Harris is ahead but she needs to be ahead by more in order to overcome the Electoral College disadvantage.

Mmm. With the polls where they are we’re still in “nothing matters except the swing state” territory, neither candidate is gaining or collapsing enough to bring other states into play unless something hyperlocal happens. And tbf unless Harris has some sort of spectacular disaster I think there’s zero chance of <any> previously safe blue state becoming a swing state, while the bluer swing states still feel bluer. But the low-voting youth vote remains a large random factor and potential growth, and Trump’s got to be more likely at this point than Harris to switch voters off and lose them to nonvoting, so while few people are going to be switching most of the major turnout stuff looks to be in Harris’s favour. Basically I reckon Trump is still close to maxxed out, which is scary and mad but also in its way reassuring, he can’t go up much but he can go down. WHereas Harris has far more likelihood of going up.

So basically not <that> much point in listening to anything except post-debate swingstate polls of decent size, just keeping a wee eye on the 4%,5% states is enough, this is still a local general election. And it’s definitely the case that the democrats have been attacking those while Trump is still almost entirely preaching to the choir. Course, some of that choir is in the swing states, maybe Michigan most of all.

But it’s really noticable that frinstance all of this mad “eating your pets” stuff is targeting Ohio by name, and Ohio should be a pretty safe seat for Trump. In fact it’s a right-lurching state which used to be a bellweather. (2020 was literally the first time Ohio went for the loser in 60 years) So considering that the actual conversation point is almost entirely made up, it’s really weird to aim it there rather than picking up the most immigration-sensitive of the big 5 swings.

But right now I just don’t think we’ve seen any useful numbers post-debate? Everything’s really sticky and hard to move and I don’t have any sense that any of them is an exception but I’d be surprised if we see a majority rightward slide.

PS, I just became sort of aware that I’ve posted a bit but I don’t think I’ve ever actually said that Harris is doing so much better than I’d thought was likely, at best I’d given her faint praise and at worst I thought the party had pretty much discounted her as a future presidential candidate going by the last 5 years. I am very happy to be wrong, and now i’m feeling quietly, veeeery slightly confident and I hope I’m back to being right but what do I know 😛

538 has her maintaining a steady 3% lead over the honey monster.

I think I mentioned it before but Nate Silver now has nothing to do with 538.  Here’s his new site:

https://www.natesilver.net/

Just in case people are thinking that 538 is using the same methodology as it has in previous elections.

I know this may be a little confusing, but I continue to own the IP for all of the original FiveThirtyEight election models and forecasts. The remaining staff at 538 have created some cool new versions of their own, but I haven’t played a role in anything they’ve built since June 2023.

Then you have people who don’t understand how things can be played. Especially if your opposition don’t care about why they’ll just shout louder their truth.

Laura Loomer seems to be very close to Trump and has muscled out other advisors(rumours shes riding the tiny mushroom) and was involved in his debate prep.

If she’s the reason he’s doing so badly, let’s hope she continues

I dint really know much about her but let’s hope she brings down the whole of the GOP with her

What a lovely person ?

It’s true the right wing really does age people – just found out she is 31 yrs old! Figured she was at least 50 from the pics I’ve seen of her.

And when MTG is telling you you are racist you know you are really out there

Yeah this Loomer is a proper disciple proving to the other zealots (MTG et al.) that she deserves a seat at the top table by the only means the new right allows –  more outrage and division than the last disciple. However none of them realise how easily discarded they are despite understanding the rules of the game.

Terrifying.

just found out she is 31 yrs old! Figured she was at least 50 from the pics I’ve seen of her.

I think bits of her are probably only a few weeks old. Theres a 31 year old in there somewhere I suppose. Before and after:

think bits of her are probably only a few weeks old. Theres a 31 year old in there somewhere I suppose.

My daughter was on about this the other day, all the youngsters who have Botox, lip fillers etc actually look older to us because they end up looking exactly like the older people who’ve had the same treatments.

Pretty interesting to watch this stuff, it’d be nice to think we’ve entered “we are going to lose, time to fight over the scraps” phase but Loomer and MTG and Graham have always hated each other. Loomer’s a proper outright lunatic, has been since she spent her university career hatching out conspiracy theories and endlessly trying to entrap and “out” liberals with a series of crazy schemes that got her suspended. But you have to keep moving right just to stand still with these people so if you started out that bad you end up in really weird places…

Graham wants rid of MAGA so they can get back to being respectable right wing pieces of shit, he misses the old party and the good old days of being more subtle about your racism and lies while being slaves to big business, you know, proper republicans.

And MTG I think it’s half that she’s competition and half that she’s jewish. Oh and half that MTG is possessed.

Graham wants rid of MAGA so they can get back to being respectable right wing pieces of shit, he misses the old party and the good old days of being more subtle about your racism and lies while being slaves to big business, you know, proper republicans.

He and plenty of others like him had the power to do exactly that. Twice. Two opportunities to impeach Trump handed to Graham and the rest of the old school republican senator –  both of which would have prevented Trump from running for election again. Trump is the cuckoo in their nest, and they know he is but they keep feeding him.

If Trump wins (and latest polls in swing states, even a few post debate ones) show some good numbers for Trump

Then the GOP will be stuck with him until he finally has his Elvis moment on his gold plated crapper

Good writeup here on why in spite of everything that makes him the worst possible person for the job, he’s got a very good chance

https://www.natesilver.net/p/this-was-trumps-election-to-lose

Interesting article about Ms Loomer on the Beeb – my imagination or is it a bit “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” about her connection to Trump

BBC News – Laura Loomer: Who is conspiracy theorist travelling with Trump?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo

my imagination or is it a bit “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” about her connection to Trump

Speaking of which, what is Melania up to these days?

I can fix her.

Are you a divorce lawyer? I think she needs a divorce lawyer

My daughter was on about this the other day, all the youngsters who have Botox, lip fillers etc actually look older to us because they end up looking exactly like the older people who’ve had the same treatments.

Probably for another thread but….

She’s right…. Saw a clip the other day off a doctor guessing the age of the girls who worked at a “beauty” salon. He guessed their age and then they revealed their real age and the number of Botox “procedures”. The doc was generally way off with his guesses and each time way north of the true age.

I’ve at least two cousins who resemble that Loomer tart, but then I’m from Essex.

He is bumping ugly and not with his wife.

Are the wheels finally falling off. The sec should investigate his sham stocks as well pumped and dumped loads in the 48hours

Never understand the concern about Trump, the man himself is just an empty suit, he wants to be president, but he doesn’t want to actually preside, like last time, if he wins he’ll be down at his golf complex enjoying an easy life, the problem is that he then leaves governing to the absolute mentalists who have latched on, if he does get in, i think he’ll have an even bigger mental and physical fall than Biden has, we do seem to have lost real leaders being part of leadership contests these days.

Never understand the concern about Trump, the man himself is just an empty suit, he wants to be president,

Recognising the Israeli embassy in Jerusalem effectively ended the 2 state solution, the legacy of that has not been great….

And this time round the far right line that back him have a much better plan to get what they want
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

Not to mention that he plans to gift a huge chunk of Ukraine to putin

^^ Agreed. Trumps a shit head and a very dangerous one at that. First term was the experiment, a second term he’ll go full dictator and have some very merky backers to facilitate him given half a chance… and as for poor bloody Ukraine and Gaza…

Stolen from twitter

Laura Loomer is like a Temu Melania

Recognising the Israeli embassy in Jerusalem effectively ended the 2 state solution, the legacy of that has not been great….

It didn’t end the 2 state solution, it was also reaffirmed in the senate with a unanimous vote by both sides of the house.

As for the rest, Trump just has to be played like a fiddle, the only danger you have is from his mouth, the real danger is from his hanger ons who want to govern on his behalf while he’s away golfing.

It didn’t end the 2 state solution, it was also reaffirmed in the senate with a unanimous vote by both sides of the house.

It absolutely did end it and those empty words did nothing to convince the Palestinians, after Trump gave away a huge concession to Israel and got nothing back.

Netenyahu played him perfectly and the consequences have been disastrous

How the peace process killed the two-state solution

They say life imitates art

Trump is Stannis Baratheon, the one true king, and Loomer is his Melisandre

I expect he’ll be burning Ivanka alive by next Tuesday

I look at her and I see…

Never understand the concern about Trump, the man himself is just an empty suit

I highly recommend you read this. Covers a lot, but as a brief highlight, he purged government agencies of anyone who was an Obama appointment, regardless of their competence. For example, the government department responsible for ensuring terrorists and rogue governments don’t get their hands on nuclear weapons, purged of talent, expertise and knowledge purely based on them being appointed by Obama. The man is a huge danger to the entire world

Never understand the concern about Trump, the man himself is just an empty suit

And you don’t think that’s a concern?

the man himself is just an empty suit

Much the same as a Trogan horse

This looks like it might be interesting – Channel 4, Tuesday at 9pm

https://www.channel4.com/tv-guide/2024/09/17

Regarding ‘The Fifth Risk’ up there, here’s a Guardian Long Read extract courtesy of the author Michael Lewis

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team