Brexit 2020+

But racism and anti-immigration aren’t quite the same.

(I strive to be neither, for the record)

The Nissan move is interesting though. Given they have a big factory here they could effectively become Britain’s domestic car manufacturer.

Wait until the marketing department gets hold of it.

To appeal to their new audience they hastily rebadge the UK Micra to appeal more to the Leavers.

The Nissan Spitfire!

But racism and anti-immigration aren’t quite the same.

Song Thrushes and Mistle Thrushes aren’t quite the same either.

But racism and anti-immigration aren’t quite the same.

True, but what do you reckon the Venn diagram would look like? I’d wager, two concentric circles of a very similar size.

I suspect they want subsidies, Sunderland has capacity for 600,000 cars a year

At the moment 80% are for export, according to this ‘leaked’ contingency option there will be no more exports at all, unless 1 in 5 of all UK cars sold is a Nissan the factory will have to be drastically reduced in size or heavily subsidised

It’s contingency they’ve got to model all outcomes and have a scenario for each.Effectively it’s someone’s job to do this.

Leaking it thou does look like they’re sniffing something for something favourable either side of channel 🙂

I’m all for Nissan thou if I can have a GTR in LHD at a crazy knock down price then I may have found that Brexit bonus 🙂

I started the Nissan comments rolling in this thread and after the “leaked report” i asked the bod i know and quote ” its a load of shite” delivred in a Geordie (not mackem) accent.

Yes they have considered leaving behind UK production if tariffs are +10% that would be an 80% reduction in capacity at Sunderland and continued decline added to no new models or investment. The current model production lines are old school

Moving production out of the UK provides a level playing field as their competitors all have the same tariff hurdle. They also recognise that Brits will pay a premium for perceived premium brands and agree with the German manufacturers analysis that 10% tariff will have less impact than a bloody great post brexit recession on overall car sales.

Thee FT piece is selective propaganda at best and crap journalism at worst.

Thee FT piece is selective propaganda at best and crap journalism at worst.

That would be a shame. I was looking forward to seeing Gammons driving around in their Nissan Micras Spitfires and thinking there was something wrong, but not quite being able to put their finger on it.

Well anyone who could drive a calculator could work out the 80% drop in capacity impact….

Electric only Nissans… imported… tariff free… thanks to a new FTA that the UK will have to sign within 10 years. UK manufacture has 15 years max… but I’ll wager it’ll be here ‘till after the next general election, thanks to short term back handers from the government and the company seeking to get a full life from existing model lines.

Anyway…

A quarter of Brits (26%) – and 41% Leave voters – say they're bothered when they hear those from a non-English speaking country talking to each other in their own language whilst in the UK https://t.co/akekgz2WLE pic.twitter.com/uAACcyRM1o

— YouGov (@YouGov) February 3, 2020

You call it anti-immigrant sentiment, I call it Xenophobia, but there’s now no way to call the whole thing off.

But, let’s look on the brightside… support for freedom of movement has consistently increased in polls since 2016, there is a hope that was a high water mark when it comes to “legitimate concerns about immigrants”, and the majority would favour reciprocal rights with EEA citizens, Norway style. Politicians are too scared of racists to go down that route now though.

Priorities about Brexit amongst the public are slowly shifting away from the original anti foreigner anti migration foundations of 2016…

How have Britons' Brexit negotiating priorities changed since 2017?

Control of immigration (-12) and minimising the divorce bill are down (-8), while the Northern Ireland border is up (+12)

Top priorities remain trade and security.https://t.co/pCBmk2TCKJ pic.twitter.com/i8APs8f8pz

— YouGov (@YouGov) January 31, 2020

I mean it’s possible that we’ll start buying 1/2 million Nissans a year, but it’s unlikely!

Supply and demand resulting in a fall in the £ price of domestically built cars?
Bear in mind you’d expect whatever tariffs to be reciprocated then there’s potentially a big hole in the UK market left by the other manufacturers too.

Maybe we’ll all be driving Minis’s, Hondas, Toyotas and Nissans, and vans will all be Vivarro’s.

@Raybanwomble

I really, really struggle with you grasping around for highly subjective evidence to support the theory that Brexit is a racist project and that people who support Brexit need to be labelled and attacked as racists. It is completely missing the point.

The reason I struggle with it is that all your doing is attacking the product of our very particular model of society and the culture industry that sustains it. People are brought up on a diet of conspiciuous consumption. They’re fed a very particular form of entertainment that sustains the system. When they get old enough, they’re told to go to work or they’re scum and kept topped up with a bit of fear and loathing via the culture industry. Our system has turned “news” into a product for people to cosume, and all it needs to do is get them to come back for more. Fear is a good tool for this, and our media absolutely bashes it out. See Corina virus at the moment, it was war in the middle east last week etc.

People hating folk who don’t work, locals hating immigrants, indignant anti brexiteers hating brexiteers and vice versa, drivers hating cycling. All cheeks of a very cheeky arse. You wont fix any of them by labelling others and shouting at them. Look a bit higher and aim there. In that sense the Brexiteers actually had it right – attack the system.

Genuinely if all you’re going to do is feed the hate and mistrust between people then you’re no better.

Isn’t arguing over who voted for what and why, sort of irrelevant now?

A pretty pointless exercise?

We need to concentrate on the matter in hand. Not fight the last war. Surely we should be keeping an eye on what this lot are getting up to at the moment, as the outcome of the next 11 months will dictate the terms of our economy for decades.

Joris Bohnson yesterday made it pretty clear that he was pursuing what all sensible economists feared the most… a complete break with the EU. No regulatory alignment. The EU made it clear (somewhat unsurprisingly) that this is totally unacceptable and that on that basis, no trade deal could be agreed.

He then went on to say he wants the kind of trading relationship the EU has with Australia. The EU has no trade deal with Australia. They trade on WTO rules.

He then went on to refer to concerns about chlorine-washed chicken and GM crops from the states as ‘mumbo jumbo’

Is there anyone who believes in any other outcome than a no deal crash out at the end of the year? With the horrendous implications that involves?

I think that’s what they want, so in the short term their mates can make a killing, and then in the resulting chaos they can set about tearing up workers rights, environmental controls and pursuing a very different ‘regulatory alignment’… one with the US.

Does anyone still think that the ‘negotiations’ over the next year will be anything other than a charade, with a no deal crash out as the inevitable end result?

I think this is what Boris and co have wanted all along and what we’ll witness over the next year is just a campaign to shift the blame firmly on to the EU for when it happens

History will be (re) written by the Victors . . . . Bus? What bus? Posters? What posters?

Does anyone still think that the ‘negotiations’ over the next year will be anything other than a charade, with a no deal crash out as the inevitable end result?

My hope is that it is more important to Joris to fulfil his Churchill Fantasy than to cut and run to an offshore location with a massive wad of cash and the tag of the PM who burgled the country and legged it.

There are degrees between and we mustn’t forget that people like Cummings, who are totally in the pocket of the spivs and speculators, know where the bodies are buried.

I am not optimistic.

The no deal exit is probably the only way Boris can keep his overall vote in place, the only Tory casualties would be Farmers who haven’t got many votes.

There is a lot of dogma among the Tory party that wants zero tariff zero restriction as this allows the reciprocal access to other markets and inward investment (or asset stripping)

The no deal brexit can reduce the costs of food, clothes, beer and many other products that will keep poor people happy while driving up minimum wage in an economy with reduced labour availability- this approach shifts the financial burden away from the government and the pressure off reducing income tax – everything the Tory party ERG nutters drive is to do with transfer of wealth – this is the heart of what they are after.

So yes a no deal brexit is the endgame. Positioning it with the masses is very easy (ooh look cheap beer and the poundshop is the 50p shop)and keeping a handful of casualties under control (Farming and Fishing) is realtivley simple. If you have property,education,business (outside of the casualties) and little debts i am pretty sure you will be fine however the rest of the UK not so sure.

binners is right, everything boris has done has be toward getting a no deal done….

plan accordingly.

Joris Bohnson yesterday made it pretty clear that he was pursuing what all sensible economists feared the most… a complete break with the EU.

I think he’s trying to intimidate the EU, the thinks they fear no deal.

I think he’s trying to intimidate the EU, the thinks they fear no deal.

In a way I hope so. The EU will be worried by the prospect of no deal. Unfortunately, if we had a brain, we should fear it much more.

This is one manifestation of my main annoyance around Brexit, namely the weaponising of stupidity.

Joris is going to try to say to the EU “I am going to go through with the threat of no deal because I’ve got tens of millions of nobheads who believe everything they read in the Daily Mail behind me”.

Pathetic stuff.

Nice to know that the countries future is at the mercy of an over-privileged man-child who’s effectively playing a high-stakes game of poker with other peoples money.

One where him and his mates can’t lose, whatever happens

Like a lot of things around Brexit it feels like its all just some jolly wheeze amongst our ruling class

We are just back where we have been since June 2016.

Holding a gun to our own head and saying “If you don’t give in to my demands your dry cleaning bill will be horrendous”.

It was always going to be like this.

The difference is that before now the EU knew that when push actually came to shove the Maybot wasn’t anywhere near dumb enough to pull the trigger. She actually cared about the consequences for everyone (not least for herself)

But now we’ve got Boris in the driving seat, and during his life, as with Dave before him, none of their acts (no matter how stupid and destructive) actually carry any consequences.

If you wanted one thing to point at to explain how we ended up here, it’s that. An Eton elite where they are never ever held accountable for anything, there are no consequences to anything and no price ever to be paid for any of their actions. It’s all just a game. And in true Bullingdon Club fashion, somebody else will always be left to clean up the mess and pay the bill.

In an ideal world there would be two lamp posts awaiting those pair for where their one-upmanship and obscene sense of entitlement has delivered the country

Nice to know that the countries future is at the mercy of an over-privileged man-child who’s effectively playing a high-stakes game of poker with other peoples money.

I’m not really sure Aron Banks and the rest of Joris’s paymasters aren’t playing with some of their own… if undeclared and would have been subject to anti-money laundering money .. or are you suggesting Joris is actually in charge??

binners

But now we’ve got Boris in the driving seat

It’s not like the chauffeur chooses the destination

Indeed. He’s merely following orders. All the dodgy people behind the scenes who’ve bank-rolled his endless ambition now want their payback.

And judging from yesterdays speech that’s what he fully intends to deliver. The no deal Brexit they all crave, all gift wrapped for them in number 10

binners … I’m reading more into the dead in a ditch speech he made after coming back from the IOM.. just the sort of idiot thing he’d say in public if he had just been told what the consequences of non delivery were

Great quote about Boris from one of his former ministers:

‘But Ms O’Neill, the former Conservative minister for energy and clean growth, said people should be wary of the prime minister’s promises.
“My advice to anybody to whom Boris is making promises – whether it is voters, world leaders, ministers, employees, or indeed family members – is to get it in writing, get a lawyer to look at it and make sure the money’s in the bank,” she told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme’

Source (before Mefty or someone cries foul): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51368799

I don’t buy any of the stuff about Johnson’s so-called backers and paymasters.
Interesting conspiracy theory and all that but….no.
He’s not a conviction politician; he’s self serving, egotistical, easily influenced and not especially clever.
He’s been played and doesn’t recognise it.
As for Nissan and who’s ‘talking shite’, I would place more reliance on the FT’s reporting than some un-named, unknown geordie.

That unknown unamed Geordie is the bloke responsible for installing/moving/upgrading production lines….

But hey ho frank knows better…

I don’t buy any of the stuff about Johnson’s so-called backers and paymasters.
Interesting conspiracy theory and all that but….no.
He’s not a conviction politician; he’s self serving, egotistical, easily influenced and not especially clever.
He’s been played and doesn’t recognise it.

I’d argue that the reason he doesn’t realise it is precisely because he’s self serving, egotistical and doesn’t give a toss (or more likely is incapable of) about anyone else.

If nothing else you have to wonder what he was doing in the IOM?? (Other than collecting the kipper from the mythical kipper seller)…

Other than collecting the kipper from the mythical kipper seller

That might explain why he had to duck into that freezer during the election ‘campaign’. Maybe there was a kipper in there?

There certainly is a whiff of something fishy.

oldman – as you know, I didn’t claim to know better; I doubted the veracity of an unnamed, unknown source who could have been nothing but a figment of your imagination.
You have now given some context but, unless Nissan have shared their contingency planning with your mate/source, it could be nothing more than their speculation.
Time will, possibly, tell.
As an exiled geordie I’ll be following this with interest.

Ryanair have just released their qualifying criteria for their recruitment drive in Manchester – applicants MUST have full rights of freedom of movement and freedom to work anywhere in the EU…

Now, for the next 11 months, that’s still everyone, but are they going to look ahead with their recruitment?

I think he’s trying to intimidate the EU, the thinks they fear no deal.

If we do end up with No Deal what exactly will the EU be losing out on? All I can think of is a few of our regional foodstuffs will be unavailable or just a bit more expensive. I can’t think of anything that another area of the EU can do for them just as well.

Genuinely, will it cause them any problems? If it’s just a few minor inconveniences then it won’t hold any power on the negotiating table.

Sinn Fein ahead in polls in Ireland & indy yes in Scotland.

Bumpy road ahead, but I think the little Englanders want be sad

If we do end up with No Deal what exactly will the EU be losing out on? All I can think of is a few of our regional foodstuffs

The majority of our export trade is services, not goods, as far as I’m aware.

Sinn Fein ahead in polls in Ireland & indy yes in Scotland.

Just spotted in passing on Twitter that a poll showed 4 in 5 folk on the emerald isle are in favour of a reunited Ireland.

(Though what the quality and scope of that poll was, I didn’t check.)

Genuinely, will it cause them any problems? If it’s just a few minor inconveniences then it won’t hold any power on the negotiating table.

Trade goes both ways, obviously. And obviously there are lots of factors at play. Different sectors have different ‘meaning’ and levels of emotion for different countries or member states.

BUT looking at the top level numbers.

Somewhere in the region of 8%-18% of the EU’s exports come to the UK. An annoyingly wide range, granted, but 45% of the UK’s exports go to the EU.

On the flip side, 53% of the UK’s imports come from the EU. Try as I might I cannot find the reciprocal % but I would be very surprised if it was much in excess of 20%.

Now, tub-thumping tossers will tell you that we will be free to ‘strike amazing free trade deals’ that offset this disparity.

But if anyone says we can redirect half of our economy in a timely enough manner to offset reduced trade with the EU and in enough time to get all the necessary paperwork and infrastructure in pace then they are either lying or insane.

Putting it bluntly, we need the EU more than they need us.

That is not mentioning all the other factors that are pulling against the practicalities. This morning on R4 there was an Aussie tub-thumping tosser giving it large about how Australia is raring to go with a UK-Aus trade deal. In the case of Australia, I think (correct me if I am wrong) we would be talking about a greater mix of physical goods versus services than we are used to thinking about in these contexts. The item on the radio ended and was followed by a story about the UK’s ‘ambition’ to be zero carbon by 2050(?). Whatever, we segued effortlessly from a story about part of our ‘national salvation’ coming from shipping goods literally half way around the world to a story about cutting carbon emissions to zero. What the **** are they going to be transported in? Tea Clippers?

The sheer tosserdom of all of this is truly something to behold.

Sure, you could probably pick holes in my percentages, but there is no way you could convincingly argue a sound economic, environmental or any other rationale for the utter nucking fonsense that is bloody Brexit.

Bollocks to Brexit.

And, if my percentages are directionally correct (willing to take correction), then that took about five minutes on Google.

Just think if a few people had spent a few minutes actually finding shit out for themselves in early June 2016….

FFS.