Random thought for next leader f BoJo goes: Kwarteng seems to be being quite critical of govt for a minister – very outside chance of going for it?

I mean, he’s typical Tory – Eton/Cambridge educated and a voting record of being against things that might benefit the environment or the little people and in favour of things that might benefit the wealthy. Very much in favour of leaving the EU. So on the face of it, yes.

But will the racist core supporters go for a black PM?!

Anyway, Boris has diverted attention from Partygate by breaking another levelling-up promise. Oh look, miraculously the funding for bus service improvements has been halved.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/23/boris-johnsons-bus-back-better-red-wall-levelling-up-treasury-cuts-funding

Oh look, it disproportionately affects the Red Wall areas. I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you.

This mornings political talk shows are going to be interesting  Raaaaaab has pretty much thrown Johnson under a bus with

Raab says it’s a significant and important development and Gray will look into it.

In response to her asking about whether the prime minister should resign if he’s found o have lied. “We’ve been clear that ministerial code of conduct is there for everyone, including the prime minister. The facts are there for Sue Gray to determine. There will be full transparency and accountability.

“The code of conduct for ministers is clear, if that you mislead parliament it is a resigning matter. I’m full square behind what the code of conduct for ministers says, it’s important for integrity in public office.”

From the grauniad live Blog.

Unless the Grey report means he absolutely has to go…

This is interesting – could the Grey report be the party’s opportunity to easily get rid of ABdePJ without a VONC etc?

He would have to resign, that isn’t going to happen. The VONC mechanism is the only viable option currently.

According to The Times he’s desperate to last longer than Cameron, so I can’t see him resigning
Ego is all

And they are playing down the fact that this report/inquiry/investigation is asked for and reports to the PM who can then decide how to use/present it’s information.

He has plausible excuses for saving his own skin, it’s his house and the whole iffy crown land exemption(possibly more moral issues than legal).

Why would he resign? What’s in it for him? Because it’s for the good of the Party? Because it’s for the good of the country? Laughable. If resigning can be presented to him as a win for him personally over the alternatives, then he might to it. But in what scenario might that be the case?

For him to resign would mean he accepts he has done wrong ad he is incapable of understanding that

VONC by Friday?

I can see him winning it, they’ll use Ukraine crisis as reason not to change leaders

The blonde buffoon won’t resign, he won’t lose a VONC and he won’t be sacked because the tory Party are too addicted to power. Bozza will stay exactly where he is. The only time we will see him go is when the tories find someone who can win the next G.E election for them. Running the country is secondary for this mob.

The blonde buffoon won’t resign, he won’t lose a VONC and he won’t be sacked because the tory Party are too addicted to power.

I don’t see your logic. The Tories will remain in power until the next GE. And if they want to maximise their chances of keeping power after that, they probably should change leader sooner rather than later. I believe that the Parliamentary party controls how a new leader is appointed, so MPs could change the rules and put a new bod in place quite quickly if they wanted to.

And if they want to maximise their chances of keeping power after that, they probably should change leader sooner rather than later.

That still requires that the current leader resign or fail a VONC. Which brings us back to the fact that he won’t resign. Boris’ first and last thoughts are about himself; not the Tories, the party, the country, the people.

If he resigns it’s an indication that he’s not up to the job and/or he’s done something wrong. Since he considers himself a modern-day version of Churchill, he can’t / won’t see that he’s not up to the job. And since he considers that rules don’t apply to him, the idea that he’s done anything wrong also doesn’t apply.

The only answer therefore is that “the party” (as in the Tories, not another wine and cheese evening) try to force him out but that’s a high-risk strategy. Two years until a GE is enough time for any new leader to lose their shine, for people to realise that things are still shit even under a new PM, that Brexit is still catastrophically stupid and so on. There’s no obvious successor which means a long and potentially messy leadership battle with who-knows-what skeletons coming out of closets when you start unpicking the background of the candidates.

Quite amusing to note that even with a majority of the country now feeling that he should resign, the Will Of The People no longer applies…

For him to resign would mean he accepts he has done wrong ad he is incapable of understanding that

I think he knows when he’s done wrong but he doesn’t think it matters because in his life it doesn’t.

The fact that there doesn’t appear to be the 54 letters yet makes it unlikely for 180 votes to appear in a VONC.

Unless there’s backroom dealings ie only submit the 54 letters when it’s certain 180 would vote against, I think they’re sticking with him.

I actually think he will resign. “It wasn’t my fault, but for the good of the country…..” especially if it looks like he’s getting the boot anyway.

Well they may as well see if the people take the grey bait hook line and sinker first,they don’t really have a rush to do a vonc.

Shirley the draw of six figure sums for after dinner speaking, without any actual responsibility, would be fairly strong for him? Or can’t he risk telling a few of his stories for a year or six?

All those Tory MPs voted for him as leader despite knowing his track record and the fact that he was totally unfit for the job of PM

A vote of no confidence now will produce exactly the same result

That might well change if the May local elections deliver an absolute kicking.

I don’t see your logic.

Firstly, his Party doesn’t have a more popular personality, although the polls make for difficult reading at the moment. Sure, he is utterly useless and does as he pleases but until the Party finds someone more popular with the electorate, Bozza will be allowed to stay where he is. He will be convinced he can rebuild his popularity and recent history lends to this too.

Additionally, he secured a thumping majority for his Party and doesn’t need to face a G.E for at least a couple of years. The accusations are in the past and in 18 months time they will probably (hopefully) be forgotten about by most who thought it was wise to vote for him. Furthermore, he’s not being criticised by his Party for how Brexit is progressing and his Cabinet appear to still support him.

He ignored the Patel bullying findings so the Sue Gray findings can be ignored too. Unless of course the Sue Gray report has some really damning new evidence then the pressure on Bozza will ease. I’m convinced the tories just crave power above all else and will focus on retaining their current position rather than risk installing Truss, Sunak or Javid or even someone remotely sensible like Davidson. Truss is probably the biggest risk to Bozza if we believe the polls but both Truss and Sunak are not in Bozza’s populist league.

I would like to be proved wrong, I really would but I expect de Pfeffel to be here at the next G.E. The biggest issue he faces IMO will be in 18/24 months time, and the issue of levelling up the North but I’m sure he and the Party will succeed in deflecting any criticism and blame Labour/the E.U/Covid etc. We’ll have to wait and see I guess.

All those Tory MPs voted for him as leader despite knowing his track record and the fact that he was totally unfit for the job of PM

A vote of no confidence now will produce exactly the same result

Correct.

Regarding the local elections, they won’t matter to the Parliamentary Party and any drubbing will be accepted as mid-term voter apathy etc. If the turnout in May is similar to a G.E (highly unlikely IMO) and they take a massive kicking (highly probable IMO), then they will have to think hard but they will use that kicking to focus populist policies/ideas to those areas where they lost votes/seats.

The difference between now and then is that the toothpaste is out of the bag and you can’t put the cat back into the tube. The MPs that voted him in know that the public now knows what they knew then. Whether this will also apply to the party membership remains to be seen. But MPs can keep Johnson off the final party-member ballot by ensuring he comes third in the Parliamentary one. I don’t think that is impossible, they will either continue to support him or there will be a landslide against him. Given his predilection for exacting revenge on his enemies, those are the only options. If he goes, they will have to make sure he doesn’t come back, ever. I reckon most of them have always secretly detested him so once they see it is safe to do so, they will all go in hard with the boot.

Johnson has lost the ability to push populist policies to enough of the people. Those that want to continue down the populist route need a new figurehead. Those that don’t also need a new figurehead, obviously. He will be replaced by the next GE.

your man is never going to quit or get bounced. the whole point is that politicians esp cons know that all his shenanigans just provide a smokescreen for the lobbying, corruption and off shore hijinks. hes the perfect political asset in a society where more people are getting their hands on only ever a very small amount of news about politics.

The point is that this scandal has caught the public imagination and the public are furious.  That translates into a lot of lost votes and a lot of MPs losing their jobs.  thats what will motivate the party to get rid of him.  self interest

What a wonderful attack line for the other parties for the next election.  The tories have to disassociate themselves from him to try to counter this.  It is not going away

The tories have to disassociate themselves from him to try to counter this.

the trap was set for Johnson alone, the beauty of it is the tory party have so far collectively decided to be ensnared by it too.

Yup

Next election opposition leaflets write themselves ” Tories – the party party”  “Remember when they partied as the queen mourned alone?”

even someone remotely sensible like Davidson.

We obviously don’t share the same opinion about Gary – Tank Commander but is this even a possibility?

One thing we have thats good about Boris(from reading the main page Mr C.Boardman story), is Boris at least has the knowledge of what it is like to ride a bike, especially through traffic.

I feel that without the PM being a cyclist, a lesser number of cycling initiatives would go through.

So lets all offer up thanks to Mr B for all and any bike acknowledgements and ask(in praise) are there anymore members of the house that are keen cyclists.

but is this even a possibility?

She would have to resign her seat in the lords, Stand as an MP in an English seat and win it.  I think In theory the PM could come from the lords – I know ministers can but I don’t think its happened for a long long time

She looks sensible compared to the rest of the loons, is personable and has good political instincts.  However she is as morally bankrupt as the rest of them.

She left the tory leadership in Scotland because the stress wrecked her mental health.  I do not see her re -entering front line politics

Could the tory party cope with a gay female Scot in charge?  I think a few heads would explode

I don’t see her wanting to be PM. I do see her being more up front in politics once Johnson has gone (whenever that is).

Even in the Tories I am unsure that anybody who has spent much time with Ruth Davidson would vote for her.

Why is that duckers?

I think In theory the PM could come from the lords

Yes there is nothing legally blocking it but last time was 1902 and the Lords have steadily lost powers since then.
It doesnt really seem a viable option especially for the tories and their leave Europe to get away from unelected bureaucrats to then turn round and go for an unelected Lord.

Stand as an MP in an English seat

Any UK seat surely?

good point.  although the tories have said on many occasions post devolution that the PM should come from England but no legal requirement of course

Any UK seat surely?

There is no seat in Scotland secure enough for any of the major parties that a party leader could be sure of getting re-elected. See Jo Swinson.

Can’t see a Tory MP standing in NI, somehow.

I guess he should have said English or Welsh seats.

Sure, I appreciate it wouldn’t likely happen, but legally any UK MP could be PM.

TGA is correct of course

I can see a total wipeout in Scotland for the tories at the next election – unless we get another labour / tory pact

Telegraph reporting tonight that Downing Street police have given damning testimony to Sue Gray’s inquiry into parties.

We reported in Dec that an officer was present in No 10 the night of the Christmas party on Dec 18th 2020 who could have seen/heard it.https://t.co/dfYG8hJ9s1 pic.twitter.com/fSYNgeYaBM

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) January 23, 2022