The national MRP polling showing big Westminster election majorities for Reform
There have been 12 MRP polls since the general election and only two show Reform winning a working majority.
The most likely possibility of Nigel Farage becoming PM is in a Reform-Tory coalition which as kimbers suggests would be a marriage made in hell.
But imo the biggest problem wouldn't necessarily be Farage's ego, after all he was pragmatic enough in 2019 to withdraw Brexit candidates to give the Tories a clear run where necessary, it's that those remaining in the Tory Party hate Reform and in turn Reform hate everyone and apparently now also themselves.
I think UK politics will be very unstable and unpredictable for probably quite a long time.
Agree about the unstable part. I still think a very likely result is that Reform will get the most votes at the next general election, but not the most seats. In fact, other parties freezing them out of power despite them "winning" the most votes is quite possible, with the "betrayal" and "respect the will of the people" (2019 Brexit style) claims paired with a large dose of "stolen election" narrative (2024 Trump style) possibly resulting in a full on far right take over of the UK at a following election (using whatever name they've adopted by then to keep up the "new politics" lie).
Worst poll rating in history? A PM with the lowest approval rating ever? Level in the polls with the green party? 20 points behind reform? Lets put up income tax for everyone, that'll solve it! The only conclusion I can come to is that handing the country to Farage is the actual plan just like handing it to Boris was in 2019. I know binners likes Life of Brian memes, Starmer's Labour party are the Judean People's Front suicide squad.
My prediction: A new Labour leader gives enough of a bounce before the next GE which along with Greens, LDs and a resurgent Plaid in Wales gives us a rainbow parliament, Labour to lead a minority coalition but be unpopular.
Lets put up income tax for everyone, that'll solve it!
They're really not getting it.
I did see murmurs of removing VAT on energy - that would be a good start.
Income tax rises would simply just drain money from the economy - and on a spreadsheet 'raise' around 8bn.
1) That won't really shrink a deficit much.
2) That will take much needed money away from certain corners of the economy.
3) Politically it's awful
There will always be "black-holes" (deficits) in government finances if we want money to be spent. Get used to that idea or things crumble.
Back peddling trying to plug 'holes' caused by years of money sliding to the wealthy rather than services - with income tax rises potentially on low earners is bonkers.
Interest income paid out daily from the government's bank is no problem.
You see the price of gold - that's an awful lot of money coming from somewhere in a time of apparent lack of money.
A new Labour leader gives enough of a bounce before the next GE
If they put up income tax they're going to need a new leader and new chancellor, and a cabinet which has almost no association with the current administration. I very much doubt Starmer, Reeves and the rest of their centrist travellers (Streeting, Lammy, Cooper, Phillipson et al) are willing to take one for the team however, as past history demonstrates that their hubris overrides everything else.
Also they're a particularly stubborn set-up as a government. Not giving a toss what people think it appears.
"This party/government keeps sliding to the right!"
"No... not tax rises!"
They've boxed themselves into a corner though... if they do increase headline rates of Income Tax or National Insurance, it'll be a gift to their political opponents. It'll make the LibDems tuition fee u-turn look like nothing. 10 years or more of very simple and easy to use campaign ammunition for the other parties to use.
Reality is they could simply spend now - not lift income tax this around - get the economy going then tax later.
'We can't afford' shouldn't even be here.
Agree about the unstable part. I still think a very likely result is that Reform will get the most votes at the next general election, but not the most seats. In fact, other parties freezing them out of power despite them "winning" the most votes is quite possible, with the "betrayal" and "respect the will of the people" (2019 Brexit style) claims paired with a large dose of "stolen election" narrative (2024 Trump style) possibly resulting in a full on far right take over of the UK at a following election (using whatever name they've adopted by then to keep up the "new politics" lie).
There was plenty of this in the council elections - in Cornwall there are more Reform councillors than any other party, however not enough to form a majority - queue lots of people chatting shit about how it shold be run by reform. None of those people seemed to understand that if Reform did run it then the rest of the parties could just vote them down.
They have had 14 years in opposition, Reeves was appointed shadow chancellor in 2020 and they have been in govt for well over a year with a massive majority - yet 4 weeks out from their first budget and labour are still flying kites with clearly no proper strategy in place other than to bend to the will of the media.
I'm beyond disgusted. Its an embarrassment for all of us that have supported Labour through thick and thin over the last couple of decades and will be catastrophic for the country.
Well I am currently sitting about 6 feet away from the minister for policing and crime, Sarah Jones, and despite my huge disappointment concerning her record on Palestine and have to concede that her connection with her constituents is impressive.
It's a packed coffee morning and despite her being a government minister she is genuinely interested in discussing very mundane topics with which effect the day to day lives of her ordinary constituents.
Edit : Making the point to highlight that it is always important to give credit where justified
I wonder if it's occured to Rachel From Accounts that her sacrosanct fiscal rules could easily be changed to account for the change the OBR made to their forecasting methodology which has created this so-called 20bn black hole? She's the chancellor FFS! It's entirely within her power to make this problem disappear, but no, instead she's going to get us all to pay more tax because the OBR has changed its forecasting algorithm. It's ####ing stupid.
There have been 12 MRP polls since the general election and only two show Reform winning a working majority
... the last two...
But digging into the data shows that Reform are wafer thin majority across many constituencies and some tactical voting would keep them out locally
Which was my point about 40% of voters have them last choice as opposed c30% first choice
Not the last two, one before last and one in August. It's possible but under the present political climate it is unlikely that Reform would have a working majority.
MRP polls
31 Aug – 24 Sep 2025 YouGov[24] N/A GB 13,000 144 45 78 37 311 7 6 3 Hung
(Ref −15)
9 Aug – 15 Sep 2025 More in Common[34] The Times[35] GB 19,520 90 41 69 34 373 6 4 14 Ref 96
21 Aug – 1 Sep 2025 Survation[295] 38 Degrees[47] UK 8,546 191 42 63 30 293 6 2 23[b] Hung
(Ref −33)
13–30 Jun 2025 More in Common[94] N/A GB 11,282 126 81 73 42 290 7 4 8 Hung
(Ref −36)
29 May – 18 Jun 2025 YouGov[104] N/A GB 11,500 178 46 81 38 271 7 7 3 Hung
(Ref −55)
10–17 Jun 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[105] PLMR GB 5,444 118 29 69 26 377 4 4 5 Ref 104
14 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 More in Common[166] N/A GB 16,176 165 165 67 35 180 4 5 10 Hung
(Ref −146)
21–28 Mar 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[170] PLMR[171] GB 5,180 180 133 49 30 227 4 4 5 Hung
(Ref −99)
22–29 Jan 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[225] PLMR GB 5,743 174 178 57 37 175 4 2 5 Hung
(Con −148)
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025 Focaldata[296] Hope not Hate[297] GB 17,790 287 163 63 22 76 4 4 13 Hung
(Lab −39)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024 More in Common[268] N/A GB 11,024 228 222 58 37 72 2 4 26[c] Hung
(Lab −98)
6–9 Dec 2024 Stonehaven[251] N/A GB 2,072 278 157 47 24 120 3 2 19[c] Hung
(Lab −48)
Now they’ve gone and released the migrant sex offender who caused the protests in Epping. You really couldn’t make this up. Makes the Truss and Sunak govts look like models of competence and effectiveness.
The prison service is stretched to breaking point… I doubt this is a rare case (but will make for rare headlines, because, you know, some criminals are of far more interest than others, for some reason).
Makes the Truss and Sunak govts look like models of competence and effectiveness.
In what way is this particular incident the direct responsibility of the current government?
Obviously and predictably Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage are milking it for all it's worth and attempting to somehow blame the current government. According to Badenoch this proves that the "entire system is collapsing under Labour". But I fail to understand the connection between this cock up and Labour.
Sir Keir Starmer is also predictably trying to use the incident to sound tough, according to him Kebatu "must be caught and deported for his crimes". Yeah well done mate, until you mentioned it the coppers had no idea what they were supposed to be doing, so well done for pointing them in the right direction. FFS
Ms Powell beat Sir Keir’s preferred candidate Bridget Phillipson by 87,407 votes to 73,576 in a clear message from Labour members that they want a change of direction. Although the turnout was only 16.6 per cent.
Wow. You have to assume that Labour Party members have at the very least a vague interest in politics and yet over 80% of them couldn't be bothered to vote in an election to choose their own deputy leader. How demoralised must Labour Party members be.
Well done Morgan McSweeney and Sir Keir Starmer, you are both the gift to Nigel Farage who doesn't stop giving.
The media were excluded from the event as Labour attempted to minimise media exposure on another difficult day for Sir Keir. The result itself was played out in a small room with only a few invited guests.
I found that really quite sinister, how the clique who now control the party are so loathed to openness and any light being shone on Labour Party proceedings.
They really have developed a bunker mentality. Although I guess it is perfectly in keeping with what you would expect from a nasty right-wing authoritarian clique.
Mmmm does the Labour Party have 1million+ members as suggested by the Independent's maths? Isn't it more like 300,000
So I'm assuming the difference is people who are affiliated members via a union which is in turn affiliated to the Labour Party.
Not saying it's a exactly brilliant though
Still a tiny turnout. Raynor got three times as many votes when she was elected. Still, a good result in what looked like a sewn up election… Powell far more interesting than Phillipson… a surprise and welcome result. Labour need Raynor back though.
So I'm assuming the difference is people who are affiliated members via a union which is in turn affiliated to the Labour Party.
Yes it includes affiliated Labour Party members. I am happy to acknowledge that fact, my point remains the same.....you have to assume that Labour Party members, including a affiliated members, have at the very least a vague interest in politics and yet over 80% of them couldn't be bothered to vote in an election to choose their own deputy leader. How demoralised must Labour Party members, including affiliated members, be.
Btw the turnout in this deputy leader election represents a 42% drop when compared to the previous one.
suggested by the Independent's maths?
The Independent's maths all comes directly from the Labour Party (the media were excluded from the official event)
https://labour.org.uk/updates/members-updates/labour-party-deputy-leadership-result-announcement/
Now they’ve gone and released the migrant sex offender who caused the protests in Epping. You really couldn’t make this up. Makes the Truss and Sunak govts look like models of competence and effectiveness.
On one hand, I do accept that this is probably a consequence of many years' underinvestment and failure in the criminal justice system. But on the other hand, it is such a monumental ****up that I really do think it is a moment for the minister responsible for the department to resign. Instead of deporting the offender, he was set free and given £75 cash. There is probably no quicker way to undermine public confidence.
It's a shitshow. Starmer should crack the whip and this government should be straighter than straight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Individual_ministerial_responsibility
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/oct/25/sex-offender-freed-by-mistake-search-london
Btw the turnout in this deputy leader election represents a 42% drop when compared to the previous one.
That was held at the same time as the election for leader though, so interest much higher. But your point still stands. A very low turnout this time.
The migrant sex offender who caused the protests in Epping
He didn’t cause them though, did he. We have criminals like this offending all the time in the UK. The uproar wasn’t caused by him by his actions, by his crime (we’d have constant protests if that was the case), but by the racist hatred being pedalled against immigrants of all kinds, especially but not uniquely asylum seekers.
But on the other hand, it is such a monumental ****up that I really do think it is a moment for the minister responsible for the department to resign.
Was it? I have to confess that I don't know the cause of the ****up but it seems quite plausible to me that it might have been a minor ****up in which one individual didn't do their job properly, I believe that someone has been suspended.
Have you any evidence that it was a huge systematic ****up which a current government minister was directly responsible for?
So I today received a notification in the post that I was going to be credited with the Winter Fuel Payment and then went on to tell me if I never met the criteria (which I don't) the HMRC will take it back through taxation. What a useless waste of time and cost.
It might seem like illogical but that's exactly the way these things should work when thought out correctly.
Meaning they can pay to everyone and tax back out of the system for those that sit in the upper tiers.
That's better than means testing as it takes all sorts of things into account.
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1982011088347582532
Crikey.......Sir Keir Starmer appears to have had a 'Road to Damascus' moment and has finally understood what everyone has been telling him
"Lucy has always been a proud defender of Labour values, and that is exactly what we need in this moment"
Thank **** he has decided to stop trying to out-farage Nigel Farage
Any views on the possible VAT threshold moving from £90k to £30k and the effect on small businesses? Has there been any more news about this, how likely it's looking to happen or if it was just a possible consideration?
Any views on the possible VAT threshold moving from £90k to £30k and the effect on small businesses? Has there been any more news about this, how likely it's looking to happen or if it was just a possible consideration?
Not heard anything.
But that's an interesting one. I'm on flat rate so need to keep an eye out
I'm already liable for vat anyway but this would really give a big knock to small businesses at the worst possible time.
These small efforts cause more harm than good. In fact it's all harm.
When Gordon Brown introduced flat rate it was a huge help. Less admin and a better deal for small businesses.
But Labour are hell bent on destroying everything apart from big wealth.
Thank **** he has decided to stop trying to out-farage Nigel Farage
i do wonder if Powells points about listening to members might be getting through ?
pushing the Tories on Katie Lams insane (and obviously not thought through) deportation plans
and calling out Reforms overt racism
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/26/wes-streeting-sarah-pochin-tv-advert-remarks-racist
we can but hope!
and my son (9years) said something profoundly sad to me today, he was worried that his best friend at school would have to leave, because hed told my son that people in London wanted Indian people to leave Britain, im assuming hes talking about the yaxley -lennon march in London.
Im a cub leader in a very ethnically diverse area and Im very saddened by the thought of the kids i know feeling like this.
we can but hope!
I reckon that the Caerphilly by-election result has been an eye opener for Labour, at least it should be.
It was widely predicted that Reform would win, which of course they didn't. This however proved of no benefit to Labour it just proves that right now voters want anything but Labour and that when they are offered a credible alternative to Reform, even a left-wing alternative to Reform, they are very likely to go for that.
In Caerphilly Plaid Cymru were the non-Labour left-wing alternative to Reform in England it is largely the Green Party, Keir Starmer and Morgan McSweeney would have to be monumentally stupid to continue to focus solely on Reform and ignore the growing threat from the left.
And Caerphilly didn't just prove to Labour that the real threat is now both on the right and the left. After losing a seat which they had held for a hundred years with just 11% share of the vote it also proved that every single Labour seat is under threat right now.
Having said all that I think it is too late now and Labour will almost certainly experience years of electoral damage caused by Starmer as the LibDems are still 15 years on dealing with the electoral damage caused by Nick Clegg. The next general election will be a total disaster for Labour and damage limitation is the best they can hope for.
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won.
Now Reform are in the same position as Labour were before the last general election... they are promising change and just like Labour most voters have no real idea what this alleged change will be. However for voters who have can't see Reform offering anything, and are fed up with Labour behaving like Tory/Reform-lite, there are now other alternatives such as the Greens and Plaid Cymru.
The very first sentence in Labour's election manifesto:
"This election is about change"
You can't blame voters wanting change when the Labour Prime Minister makes it clear that change is the most important priority.
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won
I've absolutely no idea why they thought the current path was better option. (I personally don't think they will ever get it.)
All of Labour's success was based on Tory collapse and positive change.
Why was this painfully obvious a while back too?
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won
I've absolutely no idea why they thought the current path was better option. (I personally don't think they will ever get it.)
All of Labour's success was based on Tory collapse and positive change.
Why was this painfully obvious a while back too?
Labour won the last general election on a one word slogan "change", no one really knew what change a Labour government would bring but voters were clearly desperate for change, that's why Labour won
I've absolutely no idea why they thought the current path was a better option. (I personally don't think they will ever get it.)
All of Labour's success was based on Tory collapse and positive change.
Why was this painfully obvious a while back too?
Hope this is heeded:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/oct/27/racist-incidents-against-uk-nurses-surge
Hope this is heeded:
I doubt it. The UK prison service is likely to be thrown even further into chaos early next year as changing visa rules (more pandering to the far right) will lead to a large number of west African prison officers leaving their jobs and the UK. This will be the prison service that is on the brink of collapse already and just last week accidentally released Hadush Kebatu - much to the delight of the far right.
But very little has been said in the news about this. Yet another example of pandering to prejudice resulting in the UK shooting itself in the foot. And who benefits from the chaos, the further breakdown of public services? The far right.
How can Starmer not see this? Why does he keep legitimising Reform by echoing their hate? Politically the man is adrift and hopeless.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/sep/12/prison-officers-uk-skilled-work-visa-rule-change
Why does he keep legitimising Reform by echoing their hate?
Why do you think? His party has done the analysis and determined that it's more likely to be more effective to fight for the voters lost to reform than it would be to pander to those already on the left - because until recently there was no credible alternative further to the left. Clearly the rise of the Greens is going to affect that.
It's not good, but that's clearly what's happening - I can't believe you can't see that. Starmer is in an impossible situation and even if it weren't impossible he's not good enough of an operator to get out of it.
FPTP with two main parties means that each party has to be a coalition of diverse views, and they can only be held together by strong leadership. Lack of strong leadership OR incursions from either side is clearly going to destabilise that and we have both currently. UK politics has always been about hidden compromise because of the electoral system - but that is all about to change possibly for the first time ever in British political history, or maybe the second time.
I'm not sure if the link works but it is an excellent article, note this :
But it arrests the narrative of Farage the unstoppable insurgent, and begs the question of whether his support has reached a ceiling. When voters want to punish the establishment parties, they have other choices.
Tactical voting appears to have created a winning anti-Farage coalition. Plaid said Labour voters and even party members told canvassers they’d be backing the nationalists to keep Reform out.,
Astonishingly, Westminster’s two main parties, who’ve traded power for a century, won less than 15% between them. That’s a lesson for both Starmer and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch about pandering to Reform voters.
It's not good, but that's clearly what's happening - I can't believe you can't see that. Starmer is in an impossible situation and even if it weren't impossible he's not good enough of an operator to get out of it.
I can see it. Mine was what you might term a rhetorical rant.
It's not impossible, mind. But he's definitely not a good enough operator to get out of it either. It was a lot more possible 12 months ago when most people were just relieved to see the back of the Tories.
It should have been presented, around this time last year, as it has taken six months to look at all the damage. We need to do X, Y and Z which will mean binning this manifesto pledge or that policy direction. Change is what you wanted and change is what you will get.
But they just retreated into a bunker of not wanting to upset the applecart. And here we are. Drifting towards a Reform government in 2029 with no clear battle lines drawn. Lands of strangers one minute and preaching inclusivity the next.
Why does he keep legitimising Reform by echoing their hate?
He's done it for months.
Labour did have options available to them but they selected the most lazy, cheap and inneffective way - i.e not doing much and hoping the votes would turn to them through a series of Reform baiting noises.
Starmer was never in an impossible situation because from the off they *chose* black-holes and *tough choices* as opposed to getting their hands dirty and fixing things by virtue of being in power and having political will, and the full power of the GBP with whatever resources are available.
Changing narratives was also part of the deal for me. They didn't embrace that - instead they chose flirting with right-wing economic orthodoxy, and flags. That supports the narrative that goes against the reason for voting Labour.
Labour were only popular when they lied their way into power with their progressive pledges. Right-leaning political parties simply see the world in very simple ways - built on lies, prejudices and misinformation. This is why Greens are currently popular because ZP figured this out a few years ago. Starmer and Reeves have zero interest in rebuilding the UK - like parties before them.
They've not run out of options - they've decided not to select those options that could make a difference. But yeah the general feeling on top of all this that Starmer is not good enough is there too. Technocrats are losing the public. It doesn't help either that not being seen immaculate with the truth - as well as a bunch of terrible personal choices at odds with political prominance - and the standards people were expecting.
I think Labour deserve everything that comes to them for letting the voters down in this way.
Why does he keep legitimising Reform by echoing their hate?
Because many of the former Labour supporters in former Labour "safe seats" are expressing a desire to vote Reform because 1, they voted for Brexit and 2, they think there's too much immigration. If Labour want to win elections in the future they need those votes.
I thought this was obvious to everyone?
Ah yes the "peer pressure" excuse for racism that the right wingers keep using to brush over labours adoption of racism and march to the right, I wouldn't accept it from a child never mind political leader.
Why does he keep legitimising Reform by echoing their hate?
Because many of the former Labour supporters in former Labour "safe seats" are expressing a desire to vote Reform....
Yet it was to the Left, not the Right, that Labour lost a by-election in one of its one hundred year old strongholds last Thursday.
And yes you are right to talk of former Labour "safe seats", there are no longer any thanks to Keir Starmer/Morgan McSweeney
I thought this was obvious to everyone?
That legitimising Reform by echoing their hate is the way forward? Nah, I don't think that is obvious to anyone that giving Reform a helping hand is the best way to defeat them.
.
Why does he keep legitimising Reform by echoing their hate?
Because many of the former Labour supporters in former Labour "safe seats" are expressing a desire to vote Reform....
Yet it was to the Left, not the Right, that Labour lost a by-election in one of its one hundred year old strongholds last Thursday.
And yes you are right to talk of former Labour "safe seats", there are no longer any thanks to Keir Starmer/Morgan McSweeney
I thought this was obvious to everyone?
That legitimising Reform by echoing their hate is the way forward? Nah, I don't think that is obvious to anyone that giving Reform a helping hand is the best way to defeat them.
.
If Labour want to win elections in the future they need those votes.
Labour don't get those votes by doing what they're doing - clearly. They get more votes by fixing things for a large group of people, something they're pretending is not an option. (Cough bullshit.)
Every bit of evidence around you says just pretending to be Reform is not getting them those votes.
The Labour right are dead in the water and their strategy has fallen apart at the expense of many of us.
My prediction: A new Labour leader gives enough of a bounce before the next GE which along with Greens, LDs and a resurgent Plaid in Wales gives us a rainbow parliament, Labour to lead a minority coalition but be unpopular.
I think its the Lib Dems who will get the opportunity to lead. As Caerphilly showed, when people knew it is a two horse race between Reform and (any) other party, they forget about the protest vote for Reform and vote for the alternative to keep Reform out. I worked in Merthyr for quite a few years to know South Wales isn`t a Plaid strong hold and most viewed Plaid as something of a Loony party.
Labour appear as dead as the Conservatives. Whilst Labour were always going to have a very difficult time picking up the pieces after the mess the Conservatives left, Starmer certainly hasn`t helped Labours case in how he has mismanaged one crisis after the other ... plus his cosying up to Trump has further diminished his reputation.
I worked in Merthyr for quite a few years to know South Wales isn`t a Plaid strong hold and most viewed Plaid as something of a Loony party.
When was that, though? I think since the SNP did well a lot of people here in Wales start to think they want their own sensible party. Plaid made it clear that independence is not an immediate policy aim but a long term aspiration and that has helped them start to become that. Only start, mind, because a lot of older people don't change their minds very quickly and don't necessarily pay attention.
But what Cameron was actually doing was giving the British public a ****-you button, and asking: “Do you want to press it?”
Exactly.
Added to which austerity had really bitten hard and many had not forgotten Gordon Browns snearing response to those with genuine concerns about how fast their local communities (Crewe, etc, .. ) had changed with minimal/no govt support to help those communities through that change.
Being in the EU didn't deliver good living standards for many.
True, and sadly that will always be the case. The question is whether “many” is a bigger or smaller number outside or inside the EU?
That woman was a bigot, though. 🤷♂️
I would attribute far more to the MP's expenses scandal (in second place after austerity).
But it was indeed a **** you button. And the electorate pressed it. Unfortunately the electorate didn't realise the 'you' bit referred back to themselves. As far as I'm aware, David Cameron is still doing absolutely fine out there somewhere.
I thought this was obvious to everyone?
A glance at the opinion polls would tell you that it's not working. An alternative strategy would be to show some leadership, work on making life better for ordinary people, and try leading the argument rather than following it.
I've just heard Danny Kruger apparently redefine hate speech and racism. Apparently it is not the words you say, but the intention behind them.
I wonder how happy Zia Yusuf would be if one of Lee Anderson's constituents threw his arm around him and, in gruff north Nottinghamshire, said "you're alright for a...". That particular word having been standard slang amongst many white working class communities for the shop on the corner. I'm pretty sure it was used in that context in an early, uncut version of an Only Fools and Horses episode.
Apparently it's the intent that matters. And you'll have to take my word for that.
🙄
The question is whether “many” is a bigger or smaller number outside or inside the EU?
thats been well and truly answered by now, living standards have fallen , inequality increased, child poverty hit a record high earlier this year
by every measure Brexit has failed to deliver what it promised; fixing the NHS and public services, reducing immigration, reducing inequality, making food cheaper, saving the fishing industry, boosting the economy......
a 4% drop in GDP is just a statistic, but its a statistic that resulted in real damage to peoples lives and the poorest have bourne the brunt
it wasnt a ***** you button, it was a *ourselves button
the sad thing is the millionaires that told us Brexit would be great feel none of that pain but the are riding high on the discontent it has helped create
(see Danny Kruger post above)
double post
double post
That woman was a bigot, though.
If she was bigotry then it's even worse Danny, Gordon Brown personally went round to her house and spent 40 minutes apologising and listening to her concerns.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-apologises-bigoted-woman-remark
"I misunderstood what she said. She has accepted that there was a misunderstanding, and she has accepted my apology"
It is widely accepted that when 8 East European countries joined the EU 6 years earlier it was Gordon Brown who convinced Tony Blair to waiver the temporary immigration controls from those nations.
As Chancellor Gordon Brown had an obsession with wage-fueled inflation, something which continued until the global credit crisis, allowing an influx of labour from low-wage high unemployment (at the time) economies was likely to put deflationary pressures.
The only two other EU countries who allowed unrestricted immigration from those 8 Eastern European countries were Sweden and Ireland, so the UK was the natural choice for most of these new economic migrants and as a consequence 1.5 million came to the UK, far exceeding the UK government's expectations.
It would be deeply disingenuous to pretend that this decision had no effect on housing, local healthcare, services, wages, etc. even if it didn't effect the affluent middle-classes who enjoyed the benefits of cheap and easily available cleaners and builders for their home extensions.
I actually doubt that had Gordon Brown not managed to convince Tony Blair to allow an unrestricted immigration from Eastern Europe in 2004 whether Leave would have won the 2016 referendum.
If there is one single person above all others for being the most pivotal in the UK voting to leave the EU it is Gordon Brown imo not Nigel Farage. The result of the referendum was so close that had that cockup in 2004 not occurred Leave would probably have lost.
Btw Danny were the governments of the other 12 countries who didn't accept unrestricted immigration from Eastern Europe in 2004 also bigots like Mrs Duffy?
that's been well and truly answered by now, living standards have fallen , inequality increased, child poverty hit a record high earlier this year
Same changers have been happening in the EU, these are the figures from Germany for child poverty over the past few years.
- 2020: Around 20.2% of children under 18 were at risk of poverty.
- 2021: The at-risk-of-poverty rate for those under 18 rose to 21.3%.
- 2023: Nearly one-fourth of children and young people in Germany faced poverty or social exclusion, at a rate of 23.9%.
- 2024: A report noted that child poverty had reached a record high
It's the failure of neoliberalism that is causing the problems, in and out of the EU. Here in Germany living standards are falling, wage growth is supressed, assets are inflating and inflation figures are massaged to disguise the true fall in living standards, home ownership has become near impossible for younger generations, the far right are edging closer to power and the Government is chasing them to the right and making matters worse.
Sound familiar?
Absolutely. Many enjoyed some benefits of Neoliberalism as it put cheap credit into the economy instead of state spending. (Reduce taxes they shouted.)
So we ended up with private debt to make up for poor wages and living standards..
The whole growth thing has fallen flat as governments haven't invested their own money to then sell off that wealth in recent times.
That's all Thatcherism was a temporary misdirection of ideology secretly backed by state money and wealth.
But oh my god how have we fallen for it. This will sit around Brexit as the main failure of modern times.
The question is whether “many” is a bigger or smaller number outside or inside the EU?
My mistake as I decided, when posting the above, not to add a comment about the current world/European economic climate and the difficulty disentangling the impact of that and Brexit on the state of the UK economy. What I do get is the likely 4% drop in GDP and the impact that is having. Maddening, but it is where we are.
As for the lady being a bigot, I am loath to judge her on that outburst. I am lucky enough to live in a nice village, with several nice villages nearby and a couple of nice towns not so far away. Crewe is a bit further from us but we knew people who were well aware/part of what was happening there with issues rapidly occurring in schools, hospitals, and other local services, with minimal support from the government early on. If that was my children’s education being adversely impacted, along with my local services and I had no way of influencing things, would I feel my way of life was being threatened? I wonder how different my attitude to the man responsible may have been?
What I do get is the likely 4% drop in GDP and the impact that is having.
That’s the easy part to understand, and accept. The harder part is watching people turn to Farage, Tice etc as a result. Despite them being the loudest proponents of it.
Also interesting that in this poll the Reform/Tory block is 44% and the non Reform/Tory block is 48%.
This kind of split is pretty similar across all the polls. Be interesting to see how this plays through a first past the post system.
If the polls stay where they are... that's likely Reform taking a lot of seats off Labour, with fewer gains for any of the other parties.
But it's worse than that. There are about 100 seats where Reform need nothing like this kind of swing to move from 2nd (or close 3 way split) to take the seat. The polling could seriously worsen for Reform, and they'd likely still take most of those 100 seats. Reform very unlikely to be a minor player in the house come the election. 2nd biggest party very likely (with LibDems and Greens taking a few more seats of the Conservatives making them the 3rd or even 4th biggest party for the first time ever). Biggest party on seat count? No, but that "injustice" is going to allow them cause major mischief. Enough for it to be a huge step towards power.
....in a GE the size of the shift will depend loads on tactical voting - assuming polls don't move - which could get MPs elected from Green, LD and Labour whereas straight polling, even at constituency level would suggest otherwise.
In the forthcoming locals I think there will be less tactical voting and more voting across the spectrum which will be a hammer blow for Labour as it's the Labour stronghold metropolitan areas
Also interesting that in this poll the Reform/Tory block is 44% and the non Reform/Tory block is 48%.
Yup, that is often overlooked imo. And with a margin of error of 2-3% it is quite feasible that, based on the above figures, that Labour could come 5th if a general election were held now.
Whilst currently a Reform-Tory (probably short-lived) coalition would be the most likely a Labour-LibDem-Nationalist-Green-YP rainbow coalition is also fairly feasible.
Such a rainbow coalition would absolutely require a total change at the very top of the Labour though. The current authoritarian centrist shower who have an iron grip on the Labour Party and won't tolerate any form of dissent from their own party member are never going to be able to form a government with members of other political parties.
And judging by the behaviour of the Labour centrist clique during the 2015-20 period I would never trust them to treat keeping the Tories out of government as a priority.
In fact I can imagine that if the Tories were to choose a leader more to their liking that the Labour centrist clique would be prepared to consider forming a coalition with them, in a bid to keep the Nationalists, Greens, YP, and Reform, out of government.
In fact I can imagine that if the Tories were to choose a leader more to their liking that the Labour centrist clique would be prepared to consider forming a coalition with them, in a bid to keep the Nationalists, Greens, YP, and Reform, out of government.
Terrifying. But will be seen as a get out of jail option for Libs.
Anything but the left.
I wouldn't call the SNP or Plaid Cymru "Nationalists"... but that's just semantics. On actual policy though, both parties do look to be preparing their members to not insist on any major steps towards independence as a red line when it comes to working with other parties in the near future. Both look to have an eye on providing stability and cooperation if need be. I agree it'll be Labour that would find it hardest to accept and adapt to any arrangements with other parties forced upon them.
Anything but the left.
Yup, even if the alternative is a Tory government.
As Labour's trailblazing centrist Tony Blair once made it unambiguously clear :
I'm still chuckling at the "keep YP out of government" line... they'll do that all by themselves.
Anyway, we'll likely see lots of new cooperation deals in councils falling to no overall control in May. It will be interesting (and not always in a good way) to see who works with whom, and what they prioritise.
In fact I can imagine that if the Tories were to choose a leader more to their liking that the Labour centrist clique would be prepared to consider forming a coalition with them, in a bid to keep the Nationalists, Greens, YP, and Reform, out of government.
That would be a fantastic coalition. It would get rid of the worst bits of both parties, and then there would probably be just about enough sensible people left to run the country.
That would be a fantastic coalition
Well it would definitely have some support, with probably a fair few takers on here.
And as you point out they could run the country as the Tories and Labour have been doing for the last 45 years.
What could possibly go wrong?
That would be a fantastic coalition. It would get rid of the worst bits of both parties, and then there would probably be just about enough sensible people left to run the country.
A Labour Tory coalition would be fantastic? Where have you been for the last 15 years and who are these sensible people in the tory and Labour Party?
A Labour Tory coalition would be fantastic? Where have you been for the last 15 years and who are these sensible people in the tory and Labour Party?
Well exactly! but some people see good-old fashioned ruinous policy as the stable alternative to shouty noisy right-wing thoroughbreds.
The left doesn't get a look in.
who are these sensible people in the tory and Labour Party?
I'm guessing Cameron-Osborne and Starmer-Reeves.
It's almost as if Jamz has just woken up after falling asleep in 2010 and isn't aware of what going into coalition with the Tories did for the LibDems.
Although to be fair it was a great result for the Tories, so perhaps that's the appeal? 💡
Hate to point out the obvious, but this country has been in structural decline since some time in the late 19th century. That decline has been compounded by plenty of mistakes on all sides over the course of the last 100 years. But ultimately, our present predicament comes down to one thing, and that is welfare - the giant leach which is sucking all of the money and all of the life out of the country. If you think the answer to our problems is to punish the people who make money, whilst giving yet more money to the unproductive, then you are detached from reality.
^^ That's a pretty nasty comment to be honest. What's your take on my friend with MS, she gets PIP and UC and worked in a care home till she physically couldn't?