UK Government Thread

Maybe if Labour stopped punching down on the sick and disabled, then voters might be more inclined to vote for them. Just a thought.

Is it the "working class" driving these results? I imagine turnout will be low and heavily skewed towards retired over 60's, who previous election polls have showed are reform's biggest supporters. 

Is it the "working class" driving these results? I imagine turnout will be low and heavily skewed towards retired over 60's, who previous election polls have showed are reform's biggest supporters

Let's assume that's true.

The argument still sticks that the working class didn't feel good enough for getting out and voting Labour?

Same end result.

Posted by: tjagain

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After a freak bye election result normally the previous holders regain it at the GE.   Thats the political norm

 

Jeepers some of the gloating is unseemly and some of the supposed lefties are obviously rooting for reform 

For an outsider looking in it seems that way. I cannot ever see the British electorate voting for a progressive (socialist) party.over a right leaning candidate. Except as an occasional protest vote.

Posted by: Edukator

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Some voters really are spitefully thick.

I might phrase it more as "desperately looking for any way out of a decade of austerity and a drop in real term living standards" while also being thick / simple enough to be taken in by the dog whistles and blame game. 

On the other hand there's a few glimmers of hope and sanity. Lambeth by-election (Herne Hill and Loughborough Junction) got a thumping win for Green with Labour second and everyone else a very distant third. 

Posted by: rone

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Why this argument can't be sold to working class voters - I've not got a clue.

It truly is a triumph for smoke and mirrors on top of a failure of the main parties to deliver when in power.

I'm assuming our Tory councillor held her seat. As an individual, she is an excellent councillor, active on local issues and supports a lot of good work for youth and care groups. Which is odd for a Tory.

Noticeably the only posters I've seen displayed have been Green or Reform.

On the upside let's see how the Labour party respond.

I'm all ears but I suspect it will be more cuts and aggressive attitude towards migrants.

This is a shockingly bad result for a government that would normally be in its best few months.

Glad the Trump thread gives Labour supporters somewhere to vent their anger on something else.

I understand racist, xenophobic, fascist, selfish, greedy, uncaring, vindictive, lying, manipulative, coercive, corrupt... too, Rone, tar me with those brushes too if it makes your day.

I might phrase it more as "desperately looking for any way out of a decade of austerity and a drop in real term living standards" while also being thick / simple enough to be taken in by the dog whistles and blame game.

We could also argue people voting for Labour in 2025 that didn't realise they were going to slide further right - couldn't see the wood for trees either or fancied a right-wing government?

People do vote on simple issues - there's nothing thick about it.

I understand racist, xenophobic, fascist,selfish, greedy, uncaring, vindictive, lying, manipulative, coercive, corrupt... too, Rone, tar me with those brushes too if it makes your day.

I don't hardly know you. Why would I would describe as such? I'm sure you're not any of those things.

Honestly when I walk out of that door for work - thinking about forum member's personalities doesn't really factor in my day!

But the argument of thick voters is not a winner in my opinion.

People do vote on simple issues - there's nothing thick about it.

I disagree, check out the level of education and voting habits in numerous polls that include education level as a factor. There is an excellent correlation between the O-level/CSE results of my secondary mod contemporaries and their voting habits as revealed by Facebook. Higher education = less likely to vote Brexit and less likely to be caught up in the current far right trend.

Better travelled and better educated people are less likely to vote for extremes IME.

Up until now, I was in the calling many voters "spitefully thick" camp. I still am to a certain extent.

But I'm less inclined to be judgemental when Starmer and Labour are validating their choice by aping Reform in the hope of hanging on to their votes. If Labour were offering a clear point of difference (it doesn't have to be domestic socialism, it could be rejoining the EU), and voters still rejected them, then fine. That obviously puts aside that any voter or constituency that is specifically targeted by Reform ought to feel embarrassed and ashamed by it. Ought doesn't win in politics.

Now is the time for Starmer to draw a clear line. But I don't think he has the balls. I think we're going to be in for another 4 years of reactive fire-fighting with the Overton Window being dragged further and further rightwards. With Reform always being able to claim any Labour policy of performative cruelty to minorities is merely window-dressing and a 'lite' version of what they'd do.

I had high hopes a year ago.

I disagree, check out the level of education and voting habits in numerous polls that include education level as a factor. There is an excellent correlation between the O-level/CSE results of my secondary mod contemporaries and their voting habits as revealed by Facebook. Higher education = less likely to vote Brexit and less likely to be caught up in the current far right trend.

Not having good qualifications makes you thick?

As someone who didn't go to university and got very basic GCSEs, and live in a Brexit 'utopia' constituency - i didn't vote for Brexit. Many of my mates in the same boat. 

There's a liberal assumption by some people that Brexit was the start of politics going bad. You see it everywhere. 

You'd be ignoring the mess that was delivered to de-industrialised areas like ours that lead to apathy and rejection of mainstream politics before Brexit.

Brexit was a mess but it's only a small part of some people's lives.

People vote for what they think will make their lives better. Many people are tricked into that. Otherwise Labour wouldn't be in power now.

Make your target Neoliberalism rather than Brexit and we'd stand a fighting chance.

Brexit really shouldn't be constantly used as the barometer for voting stupidity when we still have lies about financial black-holes etc that are holding the country back.

It's up to Labour to fix this stuff.

Very early in the vote counting day, but the council results so far suggest Reform are taking votes from the Tories far more than from Labour. "If" that continues then we may have to think of it as being a bad night for the Tories rather than Labour.

Very early in the vote counting day, but the council results so far suggest Reform are taking votes from the Tories far more than from Labour. "If" that continues then we may have to think of it as being a bad night for the Tories rather than Labour.

It's a bad night all round.

Contextually the Tories are down Labour are supposed to be in their prime. Curtis said this shift started taking place in the general election.

I can't see a scenario where it gets better for Labour unless Labour really change their direction of travel.

Very early in the vote counting day, but the council results so far suggest Reform are taking votes from the Tories far more than from Labour. 

That has long been apparent and written on many times. Starmer, being a tin-eared ****er, hasn't listened, though. So he's haemorrhaging votes out of the other end.

Chasing bigotry. Fantastic.

I don’t think calling Jenkyns spitefully thick is unreasonable.

Posted by: rone

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I can't see a scenario where it gets better for Labour unless Labour really change their direction of travel.

I've got a depressing feeling that they'll just double down on their existing direction of travel.

Starmer really is a dithery weak leader.

Many people are tricked into that

As a result of not having an education that encouraged critical thinking. The better your education covers the political process, the history of politics, propaganda and what history teaches us the less likely you are to be duped. The nature of the education you receive will also have an impact obviously. The public school education fan on STW has exactly the political views you'd expect and rarely deigns to post except to express those views. I'm familiar with the education systems in France, The UK and Germany having spent time in schools in those countries. There's something chicken and egg about it - the political system reflects the way the population's education has influenced the way they vote.

Starmer's Labour came in and did a lot of good stuff very quickly. They then got mired in the PIP and winter payments stuff - urgh - and have stayed on track doing unpopular but arguably necessary stuff.

There's still 4 years of this government.

My belief is that Labour wanted to consolidate their victory with a honeymoon period and then use that to carry them through a period of difficult stuff, and then have enough time to let the dust settle on that in the 2 year run to the next election. 

And I believe in that period, EU membership will be mooted as a vote winner with Starmer citing "a changing macroeconomic climate" or similar.

As a result of not having an education that encouraged critical thinking

An education doesn't necessarily create useful critical thinking.

Tice is pretty well educated etc.

My partner is a teacher in a well-heeled public school and is well educated - she despises what all 3 main parties are doing. She would say most of the kids there want to vote Reform. (They do mock polls occasionally.)

There is no consensus on critical thinking otherwise we would look after our disadvantaged better than we do.

You are also leaving out the undesirable failure of things like markets which the educated tell us are perfect.

So many failures are attributed to acceptance of status-quo thinking without evidence. For example there is no solid paper that supports inflation adjustment by interest rate tinkering via central bank policy. Yet it's considered the thing to do to keep rates in check.

This is stuff central to many western governments that is considered the correct economic way of doing things.

Critical thinking works in a Lab.

I like your optimism pook not sure i share it , especially regards EU, sadly we'll get Customs Union at best but youth mobility scheme would be a good indication of a closer relationship.

anyway disappointing to see farages gurning mug this morning, just 6 votes while a big swing and a slap in the face for labour, Runcorn was amazingly close.

How long do we think the first female reform MP will last before one of the other reform MPs is involved in a drunken argument and she quits the party?

more disappointing to see Andrea Jenkyns back in politics, though her victory speech seems to be as raving as youd expect 

has badenoch said anything yet , i think the penny might finally drop in CCHQ that she's not up to the job

Starmer's Labour came in and did a lot of good stuff very quickly

The good stuff is slow and limp and not making much of dent to people's lives. Not helping with energy prices like they claimed etc.

They've done more bad stuff in my opinion - left the budget too late, and was a truly awful rudderless seething budget. The whole gifting was a total embarrassment so early in. Fuel allowance trim was a pointless move. None of this really raises that much 'revenue' in the classic sense of the word.  And government's don't save money in modern systems. Their accounts are swept to zero every night. There is no pot of money.

In fact the good stuff reads like a technocrat's greatest hits of mean-spirited and confused thinking.

The bar is too low for what we need.

Starmer had a massive majority to really do some good stuff. He's pissed that and the goodwill up the wall.

Posted by: Oakwood

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But I'm less inclined to be judgemental when Starmer and Labour are validating their choice by aping Reform in the hope of hanging on to their votes

Sort of. He only apes the Reforms more unpleasant right wing populist policies.  

Those that reform borrow from the traditional left for some reason the ruthless pragmatist ignores. I guess it fails the ideological purity test.

Lincolnshire really needs to be cut adrift from the UK and pushed into the North Sea a bit.

I think it is merely a matter of opening a few sluice gates at high tide and it is job done.

The last time I spent any time out that way was for our wedding anniversary at least 10 years ago. At dinner there was a couple from Skeg. We tried to stay out of their way, but they were on an adjacent table. The woman struck up an unwanted conversation about 'immigrunts' within about ten seconds of being seated. They were well dressed, flash motor, nice venue - and as thick as pig shit horrendous bigots. The meal itself was nice, but ruined by their presence.

Posted by: rone

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The good stuff is slow and limp and not making much of dent to people's lives

I agree with your sentiment but rushing to bang stuff through hasn't gone well in the US. Quick fixes are rarely successful long term.

Though any hint of any fix will do me for now, frankly.

I read an interesting FT article yesterday which was titled  "Reform surge shows Britain will keep voting for change till it sees it" the first paragraph states :

You have to go back to 2015 for the last time the British electorate rewarded the status quo. Since then they have voted for Brexit and Boris Johnson, and come close to backing Jeremy Corbyn in 2017. At the last election it was enough for Sir Keir Starmer simply to put the word “change” on the front of his manifesto and leave the details to voters’ imagination. For a decade, the country has been consistent that things cannot go on as they are. 

Which is pretty valid imo. When voters gave Labour a landslide last July it wasn't because of specific policies but merely because Starmer promised change. Nigel Farage now seems to be the main benefactor of voters desperate yearning for change.

Obviously Farage is not the solution, in the same way that Starmer isn't, but voters haven't suddenly become more racist since last July and decided to vote for bigotry, all that has happened is that Labour has proved to have nothing significantly different to offer.

Describing voters as "spitefully thick" when only a few months ago they were legends for giving the Labour Party a landslide victory doesn't sound like a particularly intelligent appraisal of the current political situation, ironically. Although very predictable.

Yes voters often make what I consider to be stupid decisions but that imo is primarily because of a lack of political awareness, and that is as much a reflection of the failings of those with a greater understanding than voters themselves.

With regards to both Labour and the Tories trying to ape Nigel Farage the FT article makes another very valid point :

"If the Reform leader is what people want there is already a working model"

It's difficult to argue with that imo

There is no quick fix. And no party promised one at the last election, Labour deliberately talked about a "decade of renewal". And Farage&co aren't even offering one anyway, but are still winning votes. Millionaires migrant bashing and talking without irony about the elites still works.

Millionaires migrant bashing and talking without irony about the elites still works.

What do you mean "still works" ?

If it has always worked then why isn't Nigel Farage currently UK Prime Minister ?

Posted by: rone

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Fuel allowance trim was a pointless move.

I get the impression from reading about it from several sources that treasury civil servants who'd offered this policy change to a succession of former Chancellors, who were at least long in tooth enough to recognise the potential political fallout, seized the opportunity to out-flank a new minister who they correctly assed; was keen to save money. I think the policy change says more about her naivety at a moment in time, rather than some deeply held policy or mandate that she was desperately keen to implement. The lack of foresight doesn't do her any favours though. 

Quick fixes are rarely successful long term.

Isn't the definition of a quick fix something which is a temporary measure ?

It is perfectly possible to carry out major and long-term changes in a reasonably short time, the NHS was created in about 5 years.

Posted by: ernielynch

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Yes voters often make what I consider to be stupid decisions but that imo is primarily because of a lack of political awareness, and that is as much a reflection of the failings of those with a greater understanding than voters themselves.

It cuts both ways, people are apparently regretting their Brexit vote, but are still willing to back Farage, that's not a 'lack of political awareness' that's just plain 'ole stupidity. Yes you can blame politicians over the last couple of decades (at least) for a succession of policies that haven't produced public fountains that overflow with chilled champagne, but at the same time don't vote for changes that will destroy a good chunk of the economy... 

The older I get the more attractive basic comprehensive testing before being allowed to vote becomes. 

Posted by: kelvin

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There is no quick fix.

That - along with a whole load of other minor little details - needs explaining to the electorate. The constant dumbing-down of politics to be little more than a bunch of 3-word catchphrases has really hindered any possibility of decent policies.

People are voting for "change" without any idea what that change should be or how it should be enacted or indeed why.

Speaking of 'Labours good stuff'

this is long overdue

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/01/solar-panels-fitted-all-new-build-homes-england-by-2027

Wasn't getting rid of Corbyn and betraying all the pledges about making grown-up Labour electable? That played well. There must be quite a few MPs with less than a 14k majority getting even squeakier than Armrest. 

nb  a 'correctly assed' new minister?

One of the problems that Lab have got is that people didn't so much vote for them as voted to GTTO. And there's been a lack of actual steps to make people's lives better (well-established principle that when people's lives are rubbish they look for someone to blame and vote, often against their own interests, for RW populists).

There has been a total lack of making the case for more progressive politics, and frankly fixing social care so local government is more than a device for channelling public funds to private sector care providers should be more of a priority than it is.

The problem is what do people actually want.  Reform voters seem to dislike immigration but do they understand that it is either required to make most services actually function or do they dislike immigration so much that they don't care and would rather have worse services (NHS, care, hospitality etc,.) and a slower growing economy (less workers to do stuff).

Is anybody asking them this.  If the majority of them are happy for it to be worse as long as there are not as many immigrants then fine, at least it would be know and we could see why they have it as such a priority.  They also need to be told that no party (even Reform) is going to be stupid enough to stop immigration all together.

Wasn't getting rid of Corbyn and betraying all the pledges about making grown-up Labour electable? That played well. There must be quite a few MPs with less than a 14k majority getting even squeakier than Armrest. 

We were talking about critical thinking earlier and few 'grown-up' Labour supporters appear to not be noticing the trajectory.

It's not hard to see that he's sinking the Labour party faster than CERN smashes particles.

The idea that just 6 votes is a small freaky win is totally ignoring the majority swing.

Runcorn noises has it that WFA and PIP cuts were instrumental.  

Labour's politically dangerous and/or clumsy choices are flat out preposterous for fixing a modern Britain. When they realise this it will probably be too late.

Be interesting to see how Starmer responds.

The problem is what do people actually want.  Reform voters seem to dislike immigration but do they understand that it is either required to make most services actually function or do they dislike immigration so much that they don't care and would rather have worse services (NHS, care, hospitality etc,.) and a slower growing economy (less workers to do stuff).

This is a great point.

I would say improvements in people's lives would reduce prejudices overall.

If it was me running the country I'd be quietly fixing stuff in the background in a big way.

But Labour can't because their saddled with claiming they need private money and growth. 

They're stuck.

Posted by: rone

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Be interesting to see how Starmer responds.

The electorate: we want a political party that doesn't actively make our lives worse

Starmer: This result shows we must machine-gun the dinghies

Well, one consolation for Starmer might be that we're about to embark on a two week national circle jerk to commemorate 80 years since VE Day.

A procession of boomers claiming to have single-handedly seen off the Hun (despite not having been born yet), Spitfires, Vera Lynn, bunting and misty eyes. And one that a large proportion (probably a majority) will draw totally the wrong conclusions from.

Less 80 million people losing their lives and more "two world wars and one world cup, doo-dah, doo-dah".

🙄

The electorate: we want a political party that doesn't actively make our lives worse

 

Starmer: This result shows we must machine-gun the dinghies

Basically this.

Posted by: Oakwood

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Well, one consolation for Starmer might be that we're about to embark on a two week national circle jerk to commemorate 80 years since VE Day.

Ah yes, where the people who would deport foreigners, beat the poor and machine gun the dinghies suddenly get all patriotic.

Labour MPs are breaking cover. It’s about time. 

https://twitter.com/kimjohnsonmp/status/1918222390263157081?s=46&t=LtLH_brmYFWrcPalxgEeWA

If it has always worked then why isn't Nigel Farage currently UK Prime Minister ?

Scheduled for 2029, I believe.

It's not change we want, change is something politicians interpret in whatever way benefits them and not us. Change is what politicians do with their promises. **** change.

Round my way the bins are overflowing, park benches broken, roads full of potholes. Folk can't find a dentist, get a doctor's appointment or send their kid to the local school. It's hardly surprising that good communicators (and Farage is an excellent communicator) are able to tap into people's worst prejudices. Labour isn't offering an attractive alternative and if it doesn't start soon, Farage will be our next PM.

Do you really think Reform will win 326 seats? At best a coalition. That would require the Tories to swing radically right.

Posted by: rone

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I would say improvements in people's lives would reduce prejudices overall.

The problem is that where that fails and improvements are not forthcoming (or at least not tangible improvements in a relatively short timeframe), people switch to seeing other folk worse off. 

A surprisingly large number of people don't really mind so much that THEIR life hasn't got any better just so long as someone else is seen to be getting it worse. Which is why immigrants, the poor, the disabled (and cyclists!) are such easy targets. Relative minority groups, not much of a voice to stand up for themselves.

You can easily point at them and say "ah yes, YOUR standards of living haven't improved much / at all but LOOK, we deported some asylum seekers!"

It's part of the alternative narrative that everyone sees from the RW press that immigrants are coming over here, being given a 5-bed house and millions in benefits and also taking your job. By taking a hard stance on immigrants, you're answering that RW press argument. 

Labour isn't offering an attractive alternative and if it doesn't start soon, Farage will be our next PM.

The tragedy is that these election results are a huge opportunity for Labour. Reform are winning votes off both the tories and labour roughly equally. There's not much the tories can do to get those votes back as Reform will always be stronger on rightwing dog whistle issues, but Labour can win their voters back quite easily by reversing austerity with radical progressive (dare I say - leftwing) policies which rebuild public services and infrastructure and address the inequality issue by taxing the rich more and lowering the tax burden on working people. We all know they won't do that though, they'll continue with tory-light austerity and chase the tories towards Farage's battlements in a pointless suicide mission.

Posted by: ransos

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Round my way the bins are overflowing, park benches broken, roads full of potholes

none of which have anything to do with your Westminster MP. Labour or othrwise