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It does in Ernie's world.
There might be two reasons for him losing his seat, it doesn't have to be one or the other
Well yes, the voters of Rossendale and Darwen could have bucked the national trend on general election day and reelected Jake Berry in what was a fairly marginal seat, I guess. So there could of course have been many reasons why he failed to get reelected
As for the apparent suggestion that Berry was/is of no asset to the Tory Party or any other party that's one opinion obviously. But here's another one
Why ex-Tory chairman Jake Berry's defection makes Reform UK a more serious proposition
The party's vetting procedures for candidates have been somewhere between inadequate and nonexistent - Nigel Farage has admitted as much.
If former cabinet ministers are starting to join Reform then it could soon start to look like the more professional political outfit Farage has been promising.
And that is a seriou problem for Labour, and particularly for the Tories.
It does in Ernie's world.
And maybe in binners world too eh?
The reason he lost his seat is because most people in that constituency think (quite correctly) that he’s an utter self-serving @*%#
I am perfectly happy to accept that there was more than one reason for Berry losing his seat, I merely focused on the primary reason that the Tories lost 251 seats last July. Which is that they were deeply unpopular and Reform split their vote.
more than one reason for Berry losing his seat, I merely focused on the primary reason that the Tories lost 251 seats last July.
i think you're crossing the streams of your own argument.
On one hand he lost his seat, just like every Tory last year - not because of him. Oh no.
Yet he's a massive asset for Reform and not just another transactional exMP trying to get another spell on the train of gravy
Yet he's a massive asset for Reform
I have no idea if Jake Berry is a massive asset for Reform, I know absolutely nothing about him. It's ITV's political editor who believes that Berry will be something of an asset to Reform
My only comment was with regards to Reform polling very well in his seat at last year's general election, 50% more than the average they received nationally. It seems reasonable to assume they were a very important factor in Berry losing his seat.
I had no idea that my comment would turn out to be controversial ! 😆
If former cabinet ministers are starting to join Reform then it could soon start to look like the more professional political outfit Farage has been promising.
By that loose (and poor) reasoning Nadine Dorries, Matt Hancock, Suella Braverman or Chris Grayling would also be assets to Reform simply by dint of their having been cabinet ministers.
That argument is not credible IMO.
What will be the best way to protect my pension from a Farage government?
By that loose (and poor) reasoning Nadine Dorries, Matt Hancock, Suella Braverman or Chris Grayling would also be assets to Reform simply by dint of their having been cabinet ministers.
Well yes, I got the impression that is exactly the sort of conclusion which ITV's political correspondent has come to.
I am assuming that ITV's Carl Dinnen is referring in the eyes of potential Reform voters and not expressing his personal political preferences.
Having former Cabinet ministers will quite possibly boost the credibility of Reform for some voters. On the other hand some might be put off voting Reform by the likes of Suella Braverman, who knows? Maybe a pollster should ask that precise question and we might have a better idea.
potential Reform voters
Who, I would say, are the type of person, on average, who are more likely to say "well he/she was in the cabinet after all, so they can't be totally useless". The kind of person who assumes Prince Andrew can't be a nonce "because he's a prince".
I guess when anyone who has an IQ of more than 85 looks intelligent to a certain type of person, then they're more likely to be impressed by supposed credentials. No matter how token or tenuous.
🤷♂️
Hey! Siri.
Define Irony.
By that loose (and poor) reasoning Nadine Dorries, Matt Hancock, Suella Braverman or Chris Grayling would also be assets to Reform simply by dint of their having been cabinet ministers
"I'm voting Reform, because the Torys were useless. Seeing all these ex-cabinet members in Reform adds to the party's credibility. I wonder what party they were cabinet members for"
Perhaps I'm assuming too much critical thinking ability...
The problem is that there are a multitude of reasons why more than a quarter of voters are now saying they will vote Reform.
For some it is because they saw the last Tory government as useless, for some it is because they see the current "Labour" government as useless, for some it is because they agree with Suella Braverman that the Tories were not right-wing enough, and for others it is because Farage claims a commitment to nationalise things which neither the Tories nor Labour say they will.
However I think the single biggest reason is that all three established Westminster parties are now discredited in the eyes of the electorate. For that reason I do believe that it is risky for Reform to parade former government ministers with the aim of increasing their image as a party of government.
It is also the reason why I don't believe that Nigel Farage will ever entertain the idea of a merger with the Tories, it would be daft for him to do so imo.
On the other side of the political spectrum you could get a similar dilemma. If a new left-wing social democratic party was formed in response to Labour's failures, and as an alternative to Labour, would it be to their advantage if former Labour ministers joined them? I not sure that's a question which can be easily answered.
An interesting analysis from the Guardian
There is one saving grace for the Conservatives. There may come a point where it becomes much more unpalatable for Reform to continue to act as a retirement home for failed Conservative politicians.
Berry’s defection is probably still a net positive, but if hordes of his ilk begin to follow then there will come a time when that becomes deeply awkward for a party that has made gains on the back of Conservative failures.
Are we taking bets on who the next defector is then?
Cruella is nailed on, surely?
Well if you read the above Guardian link it suggests that it wouldn't meet with the approval of her husband :
There was one interesting voice warning Farage against the temptation to accept more former Conservative MPs. It came from Rael Braverman – the husband of Suella – who is now a high-profile supporter of Reform. “Reform must not become Tory 2.0,” he posted on X – following it with a dismissive – “Jake who?”
Edit : Tbh I don't understand what his stance is, on the one hand he has become a Reform supporter but on the other he doesn't want other Tories to join, apparently.
seems like the UK's fastest growing party, and their X ticker showing membership numbers might have become an embarrassment as it's now going down by about 3000 a week. How long before that's removed?
it's now going down by about 3000 a week.
That's misleading. One week it went down by 3000, the week that their chairman Zia Yusuf temporarily resigned for two days, otherwise it's not going down by 3000 a week.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/exclusive/reform-party-membership-nigel-farage/
Despite the week’s turbulence, Reform UK’s membership remains higher than it was at the start of May - up 4,775 members over five weeks.
And there is no reason to expect Reform UK's membership to fall at a time when they are riding so high in the polls. The very latest poll out yesterday gave Reform a very comfortable 9% lead over Labour
https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1943339938763682291
I see your numbers from a month ago but maybe look at the current ones. Who's being misleading, I'm talking about what's happening now, not what happened in the past.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-membership-drops-by-10000-395360/
Granted, may be a short term trend, perhaps this time on the basis of eg: the implosion at LCC that means that a 19 year old student is now responsible for children and family services. Why voters think Reform would make a good government - frankly no idea other than as a protest against current parties but as I said before, after another 4 years I predict that opinions will have changed on both.
On the other hand some might be put off voting Reform by the likes of Suella Braverman, who knows? Maybe a pollster should ask that precise question and we might have a better idea.
I suspect that a bit like Brexit, the SNP or Labour they'll be popular as an abstract concept but less popular when forced to define and then deliver policies because then the people who thought you stood for their views, find out you don't actually.
e.g. if they did win, their popularity would plummet with the "stop the boats" crowd when the fist boat lands on day 1 and they're impotent to stop it, just like every other government. Or I suspect the £40million they've apparently saved by abandoning a councils net-zero targets might be less appealing to their voters when insulation subsidies disappear, a flood defense doesn't get built, the bus service stops running, etc.
☝️The fact that any Reform government is more than likely going to be a failure is a given IMHO
What also looks increasingly likely is that Reform will be the largest party after the next general election, they might even form a majority government.
And that's the situation which needs to be grasped.
And there is no reason to expect Reform UK's membership to fall at a time when they are riding so high in the polls. The very latest poll out yesterday gave Reform a very comfortable 9% lead over Labour
Those stats suggest Reform and the Tories are currently gaining from the LibDems and Greens.
If you are referring to the opinion poll above no, it doesn't suggest that. It suggests that Tory and Reform support has increased but it doesn't suggest where these gains come from.
Presumably you are assuming that these gains must have come from the LibDems and the Greens because their support has fallen, but the gains that the Tories and Reform have made could just as easily have come from Labour, and if support for Labour has remained static that could easily be because they in turn have made gains from the LibDems and the Greens.
Those stats suggest Reform and the Tories are currently gaining from the LibDems and Greens.
MoreInCommon arent the most accurate of pollsters
I wonder if thats anything to do with Corbyns mooted party that would do far more damage to teh greens than it would labour
I think whats interesting about farage and reform is that no matter what the scandal is or how many of his MPs get fired, quit or generally shit the bed, he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
MoreInCommon arent the most accurate of pollsters
It's a Find Out Now poll not a More in Common poll and it is in line with other polls when you take the 2-3% margin of error into account.
This Techne poll out today is very similar
https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/
he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
So how come he wasn't anywhere as popular 12 months ago as he now? Didn't the above issues exist before July 4 2024?
The elephant in the room that some people choose to ignore is the "Labour" government which didn't exist before July 4 last year.
Nigel Farage has a lot to thank Sir Keir Starmer for.
SKS lost 200,000 labour members since he took over to November last year, and estimated to be over 10% more since, although labour have stopped sharing membership numbers now as they are haemorrhaging members at such a rate.
But the reality is both reform and labour will boast about gaining members, and brush over losing members, but its only a PR operation. They both largely ignore the membership to do what the big money backers tell them to do, which is what we expect reform to do, but is a much bigger disappointment that labour are also so detached from their membership, and by extension the voters.
I think whats interesting about farage and reform is that no matter what the scandal is or how many of his MPs get fired, quit or generally shit the bed, he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
Once you've given in to the bigotry that Reform prey upon you give away any dignity you may have had and any standards you may have previously held public figures to.
Once the **** switch has been pressed it is very difficult to turn it off again.
I think whats interesting about farage and reform is that no matter what the scandal is or how many of his MPs get fired, quit or generally shit the bed, he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
Once you've given in to the bigotry that Reform prey upon you give away any dignity you may have had and any standards you may have previously held public figures to.
Once the **** switch has been pressed it is very difficult to turn it off again.
The really staggaring thing is Farrage is all for selling the NHS off to the americans... the NHS already has its issues with private sector knives in its back...
I mean, who looks at data like this, and thinks, "yes! I want some of that!"
£210 per vial without insurance...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47491964
And that's just one example of one drug...
A couple of years ago, I went through a mini phase watching youtube vids of Americans who were living in Europe and the UK, talking about their life experiences, I don't think any of them had anything but gushing praise for European and UK healthcare, quite a few of them did mention they were a bit worried about it before hand because of the propaganda they were exposed to back home.
A couple of years ago, I went through a mini phase watching youtube vids of Americans who were living in Europe and the UK, talking about their life experiences, I don't think any of them had anything but gushing praise for European and UK healthcare, quite a few of them did mention they were a bit worried about it before hand because of the propaganda they were exposed to back home.
Those videos are really interesting, when they discover the nightmare "socialism" actually helps ordinary folk live better.
A couple of years ago, I went through a mini phase watching youtube vids of Americans who were living in Europe and the UK, talking about their life experiences, I don't think any of them had anything but gushing praise for European and UK healthcare, quite a few of them did mention they were a bit worried about it before hand because of the propaganda they were exposed to back home.
Those videos are really interesting, when they discover the nightmare "socialism" actually helps ordinary folk live better.
Those videos are really interesting, when they discover the nightmare "socialism" actually helps ordinary folk live better.
Usually too late by then. The majority of folk are easily pleased if they think an 'other' group are getting their comeuppance - even if their own lives get poorer too.
Sad to say. But some people relish feeling like they're punching down because it's all they've got.
The majority of folk are easily pleased if they think an 'other' group are getting their comeuppance - even if their own lives get poorer too.
Nah, unlike you the majority of people are not misanthropic Danny. Most people's lives aren't so empty that they feel the need to hate others.
Obviously some do but the majority of people in my experience are not motivated by hatred.
Upset someone with this.
Met a couple of folk today on a ride, moved over from Slovakia 18 years ago with two daughters aged 9 and 12. Parents still working antisocial shifts in their warehouse jobs, one daughter is now a nurse, the other has a PhD and lectures at a red brick uni.
Farage and his anti immigration cronies can **** right off.
Nah, unlike you the majority of people are not misanthropic Danny
I'll agree that it's not a majority, but it's a significant and growing minority. See responses when free school meals for all children are mentioned. I hear a fair chunk of people grumbling about it.
I totally agree with Nigel Farage when he says it is a "funny thing" that Donald Trump won't be addressing the UK Parliament during is unprecedented second state visit laid on by the Labour government, in fact I think it's hilarious!
Presumably Sir Keir Starmer's advisors have figured out that Trump, who as a massive narcissist is notoriously hypertensive, would likely be embarrassed by MPs who don't share Starmer's sycophantic fawning of Trump, especially SNP, Green, and Independent, MPs
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1944749273658126475/
Sorry Nigle, I think there is an obvious answer to that question
Trump should visit Clacton, give Farage a bit of a dilemma....
Im looking forward to Trumps visit to Scotland. He will be greeted with noisy disapproval I am sure and the Scots police have a reputation for being much more neutral and allowing of protest that the Met. I'm sure Trump will claim they are cheering for him. Perhaps he will not show his face in public at all - I'm sure his advisors will tell him not to
"If you’re a criminal, I am putting you on notice today that from 2029 or whenever that may be, either you obey the law or you will face very serious justice,”
Surely that is likely to put a lot of his supporters off?
Surely that is likely to put a lot of his supporters off?
And his own MPs