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"Poland has rejected a US request to transfer Patriot air defense systems to the Middle East, Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Tuesday, March 31."
"“Our Patriot batteries and their equipment serve to protect Polish skies and NATO’s eastern flank. Nothing changes in this regard, and we are not planning to move them anywhere,” he wrote on X."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72958
Trump is apparently now saying Iran have asked for a ceasefire. aye right!
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
Trump is apparently now saying Iran have asked for a ceasefire. aye right!
How many times have they "asked" so far?
they've been 'begging for a deal' for days apparently!
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
My partner had to try 3 garages before she got petrol yesterday, and had to buy super unleaded in the end.
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
That'll be because half the country is going away for Easter!
Panic buying of petrol round us - FB posts of garages running out and I drove past queues at another today
Aye, usual number of Tentboxes to be seen on cars though…
My partner had to try 3 garages before she got petrol yesterday, and had to buy super unleaded in the end.
Think how much faster she'll be now though 🙂
My partner had to try 3 garages before she got petrol yesterday, and had to buy super unleaded in the end.
Think how much faster she'll be now though 🙂
And running much cleaner as well....
Depends on her compression ratio. Is she prone to premature detonation?
"“Our Patriot batteries and their equipment serve to protect Polish skies and NATO’s eastern flank. Nothing changes in this regard, and we are not planning to move them anywhere,” he wrote on X."
This may well be covered elsewhere on the thread already, but it seems that the effectiveness of the Patriot system has pretty much been blown by this conflict. Early on in the war More or Less did an item on the number of missiles that had been launched into Irans neighbouring countries on the first couple of day of the conflict - more than 100 into each and how almost all of them had been intercepted by at least 2 patriots.
Two, possibly 3 being launched on each occasion because if the first fails to intercept there isn't time to launch the second.
So 100 odd $20,000 drones into 5 neighbouring countries effectively destroyed over 1000 Patriot missiles. Four billion dollars worth. It gives Iran's cheapo missiles and drones a 200% success rate - they destroy two patriots for every drone they launch - better than 200% in some cases because now and then the patriots will fail to intercept and an Iranian missile will knock out 2 patriots and a target on the ground. They literally can not miss.
Those neighbour countries now need to replenish their stocks but 1000 missiles will take over a year for the US to produce - the US can manufacture two patriots a day - but thats 2 years after the US has managed to replenish its own stocks which are now more than 60% spent.
Iran seeing the US begging for stocks back from other countries will be a signal to just fling anything into the air to keep running down those stocks - I bet we'll see Putin buzz Poland a bit too, and any other holders of US tech, just a few incursions into airspace - enough to keep them nervy.
FFS, how do I insert Bsky posts?
you can see the answer in your own post - "This author has chosen to make their posts visible only to people who are signed in."
Keva
they've been 'begging for a deal' for days apparently!
Trump is such a peace tease.
going back to these comments from a few days ago, it feels most likely now that Trump will just declare a spurious victory and "job done" and bugger off home to start ranting about still not having a peace prize. What then?I can well see Trump simply declaring victory, (again!) and ordering the whole force home leaving the region to sort it out between themselves.
Well, you know never know what he'll actually do but...as long as Iran keeps Hormuz shut, the Americans (and everyone else for that matter) will stay involved. This is over when the Iranians say it is.
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage. That could be a nice little earner, and I don't see what other country would have the means and motivation to stop it. Would that be the new stable state of the world? Or will Iran keep firing off missiles/drones? Especially into Israel?
you can see the answer in your own post - "This author has chosen to make their posts visible only to people who are signed in."
Ohhh! DOH!
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage.
And that's exactly the reason this hasn't been tried before, apparently. If you don't succeed in deposing the Iranian regime, you just make it stronger.
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage. That could be a nice little earner, and I don't see what other country would have the means and motivation to stop it. Would that be the new stable state of the world?
Actually, that might not be such a bad thing, thinking about it. Price of oil goes up and stays up, the world becomes that little bit less dependent on the expensive byproducts, there's less incentive to Drill, baby, drill. One smack in the gob for the Orange manbaby. Winner, winner.
Am I just grasping at straws?
Unfortunately I think you are. Higher oil price means more incentive to drill baby drill. And the extra 'revenue' from the increased price is all going to the Iranian regime, which, as noted above, are not nice people.Actually, that might not be such a bad thing, thinking about it. Price of oil goes up and stays up, the world becomes that little bit less dependent on the expensive byproducts, there's less incentive to Drill, baby, drill. One smack in the gob for the Orange manbaby. Winner, winner.
Am I just grasping at straws?
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
Nobody is going to 'win' this war. But the Iranian regime remaining is a disaster for the gulf states, a genuine existential threat. UAE, Bahrain, Qatar are tiny countries - total population if you exclude expatriates around 2 million. They might have lots of money but they are only viable against a fully hostile Iran as part of a protectorate in some form. Terrible situation for them.
This may well be covered elsewhere on the thread already, but it seems that the effectiveness of the Patriot system has pretty much been blown by this conflict
Not really. They are good for the job they are designed for hence why Ukraine kept asking for more (I assume they have given up now) and why Poland is keeping its vs sending them to the US. I think they have outperformed in some ways eg destroying some ballistic missiles.
For a time it was effectively an arms race with the attacker coming up with faster and more powerful missiles which cost a fortune and hence resulted in a limited supply and the defenders doing the same.
Now its switched so the attacker has those but there are also a load of cheaper, slower and simpler weapons as well. So the defender needs new, cheaper and more plentiful weapons to protect themselves. Lasers are one attempt at this and then you have counter drones and cheaper missiles. The US for example expanded a project which turned their unguided 70mm rockets into laser guided ones for use against drones.
tl:dr they need to part of an air defence system vs the entire system.
This may well be covered elsewhere on the thread already, but it seems that the effectiveness of the Patriot system has pretty much been blown by this conflict.
I know what you mean, but Ukraine has received fewer Patriot missiles in more than 4 years of war than have been used recently in the middle-east.
US European Command General Christopher Cavoli said last week,
"And in fact, we learned from some of their employment techniques right now," https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-received-fewer-patriot-missiles-in-1773044166.html
Isn't it weird to want the "baddies" (based on generations of being told who are the goodies are) to win this war?
Maybe ask ordinary Iranians for their opinion?
Feels like Iran is left with the freedom to charge whatever it likes to each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe passage. That could be a nice little earner, and I don't see what other country would have the means and motivation to stop it. Would that be the new stable state of the world?
Actually, that might not be such a bad thing, thinking about it. Price of oil goes up and stays up, the world becomes that little bit less dependent on the expensive byproducts, there's less incentive to Drill, baby, drill. One smack in the gob for the Orange manbaby. Winner, winner.
Am I just grasping at straws?
Iran doesn't own the Strait, any such agreement grants them de facto ownership.
honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
In the grand scheme of things it might be better for humanity if Iran "wins" as it would mean that fertiliser and fuel gets through to where it's needed.
The United Nations World Food Programme is saying that an additional 45 million people will be pushed into hunger and potential starvation due to rising food and fuel costs
In India people are fighting over has bottles.
Much of Asia is having to ration their fuel supplies.
Australia has enough supply for38 days of gas and 30 days of diesel.
My cousin in Sydney said that the shelves in the supermarket are empty.
The UK has a shipment of aviation fuel arriving soon. It'll be the last shipment as none has left the Straits since this kicked off. It takes at least two weeks for the shipments to arrive.
Here in Europe we're looking at this from quite a privileged position. Currently most of us can take the 25-40% hit at the pump, but we will soon be hit by supply problems and increased prices as goods can't get here.
Maybe ask ordinary Iranians for their opinion?
My GF is half Iranian.
Her old man hates the regime, but at the same time hates what the US (and the UK) has done to his country over the last century.
He just wants to see a change. Every time there's an uprising he gets his hopes up thinking "this is it, this time it's going to happen!" only to have his hopes crushed.
The United Nations World Food Programme is saying that an additional 45 million people will be pushed into hunger and potential starvation due to rising food and fuel costs
It's almost as if war is a bad thing.
A one positive thing that may come from this war is that the UK finally starts moving back towards Europe. I hope this will happen with every crisis but Govt actually making noises on this now
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62l6w03lwzo
The United Nations World Food Programme is saying that an additional 45 million people will be pushed into hunger and potential starvation due to rising food and fuel costs
There are also going to be the heat casualties when air conditioning becomes too expensive to use in parts of Asia.
Unless its resolved fast, unfortunately I have my doubts, this war is likely to have a lot of civilian casualties thousands of miles away from where the bombs and drones can be heard.
but we will soon be hit by supply problems
Did a tour of a few supermarkets and garages to get diesel at lunchtime, all dry. Luckily had enough for my evening drive to my mum’s… motorway signs were all warning there was no HGV fuel at the services. Hopefully a very localised problem, but we’ll be seeing more of this.
On, “choosing sides”… I don’t know anyone who is on “Iran’s side”, but everyone seems to agree that all this shit is on Trump. He’s the one that’s bombing from afar (including targeting religious sites and killing possible moderate politicians who would otherwise could been useful in bringing positive change in Iran). Even if Trump calls time on this “special military operation” and leaves it to “the paper tiger” of other NATO nations (both expressions used by Putin, uncoincidentally) to clean up the mess, this war and the way it has been carried out is going to **** things up across most of the world for years (apart from perhaps in Russia, uncoincidentally).
Kramer
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
I can only speak for myself here but of the 3 belligerents involved I don't want any of them to 'win', they are all rogue states to one degree or another.
I *do* want it to stop though, the problem is that all 3 states, with vastly different ambitions have to want it to stop too.
Anyway, in summary I think:
1 The US is overdue it's own Suez Crisis, the fact Trump and his America First mandate brought it about isn't even that surprising but the loss of life is desperately sad.
2 The Israeli state has guaranteed another generation or 2 of young men will grow up hating it and will want to extract revenge and Iran will be even more determined to develop nukes.
3 Iran will see no regime change anytime soon.
All 3 of the above results are saddening, including Americas 'excursion' and the resulting deaths.
There's no winners here, including the rest of the world.
He’s the one that’s bombing from afar
Well, for now. Trumps actions and their consequences will drive already angry people to extremes. The War on terror is getting a recharge.
Also, good luck to Trump trying to run away from globally traded commodities, especially fertilizer.
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio.
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
What were looking at is three horrible ***** having a knife fight in a crowded room.
In an ideal future UK will become more eurocentric and will work with other countries and iran to a more moderate stance which excludes the two war mongering countries who will retreat within their own borders and eventually they will send a sensible grown up to negotiate with the rest of the world.
I had a dream.
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio
There’s been an increasing amount of the Republican establishment standing up to Trump, I think because they’re going take a mighty kicking at the midterms because of his unpopularity and they’re worried they’ll be taken down with him.
I note McConnell, who is far from a bipartisan consensus builder, is also in on the NATO bill
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio
There’s been an increasing amount of the Republican establishment standing up to Trump, I think because they’re going take a mighty kicking at the midterms because of his unpopularity and they’re worried they’ll be taken down with him.
I note McConnell, who is far from a bipartisan consensus builder, is also in on the NATO bill
Pretty sure Rubio has totally disowned the bill since going full MAGA and said within the last 24 hours that leaving NATO would be a good thing. Not sure how he squared that in his head but then he's a Trump supported so isn't the sharpest tool in the toolbox.
In an ideal future UK will become more eurocentric and will work with other countries and iran to a more moderate stance
Have you noticed the EU reaction to Israel's endless atrocities?
I honestly think that anyone who wants the Iranians to win needs to give their heads a wobble. A stronger Iran would not be a good thing for anyone.
What were looking at is three horrible ***** having a knife fight in a crowded room.
Agreed. And it would have been by far the best if the knife fight hadn't been started. However now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait, plus it'll likely embolden Russia.
I wouldn't be holding your breath on that
And i've just realised the bill introduced to prevent Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO was co sponsored by Rubio.
Although nobody wants to admit it, it was triggered following Trump v1.0.
Having said that it's right that the power is with Congress, representing the US population, and not a sole occupant of the WH acting on a personal whim.
Withdrawal from NATO is only part of the deal and I don't think that Trump will go even that far.
There's also intel sharing and international US bases to consider. The world is quite literally a US aircraft carrier and early warning system for attacks on the US and US interests. It also allows a first, early response to attack.
There are almost as many US servicemen and women in the UK as there are UK personnel (if you ignore reservists). That's a tremendous deterrent in itself, ignoring NATO.
The self-destructive counter position to the US leaving NATO would be for the US to leave European bases, Diego Garcia, etc.
There are almost as many US servicemen and women in the UK as there are UK personnel (if you ignore reservists).
Do you have numbers for that, I understood there to be around 11,000 US personnel in the UK
However now that it has, if Iran "wins"
Trump and Netanyahu guaranteed that Iran would 'win' when they dropped the first bombs. Now he's threatening to piss off and leave everyone else to clean up the mess. There is no military solution to this cluster****, and no political/diplomatic solution as long as Trump and Netanyahu are in power.