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I know Machiavelli gets a bad rap these days but if you read his excellent book The Prince there's a very useful section on exactly how to make sure your invasion turns into a neverending disaster.
It's almost as if the USA have made this the basis of their strategy in every conflict of the last 50 years.
Vietnam, Afghanistan, Cuba, Iraq and now Iran.
There are almost as many US servicemen and women in the UK as there are UK personnel (if you ignore reservists).
Do you have numbers for that, I understood there to be around 11,000 US personnel in the UK
My error. Only out by a factor of 10!
I really shouldn't rely on memory and added a digit 🤔
Point remains, it's a deterrent in itself, thanks for spotting it
now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait,
Iran has always had that capability. For some reason they didn’t use it until now.
There’s been an increasing amount of the Republican establishment standing up to Trump,
There's a number of commentators who've expressed the opinion that we've reached (and past) peak Trump. The mid-terms are unlikely to be favourable, and perhaps more importantly the GOP are going to have to choose someone else to stand as their next POTUS candidate, and the focus will invariably shift away from Trump (if he's still alive) He'll hate that obviously, but I think even the most ardent Trumpist must be aware that they've just 6 months before it all comes to a screeching halt. The Alt-right media space is already openly bickering about it. The only blot on the horizon of no more Trump is that I think it's highly likely that Tucker Carlson will throw his hat into the ring, and I reckon he'll be very popular with MAGAs looking for their next cult leader to tell them what to think.
Sorry, I feel the Trump threads and this are becoming the same thing.
now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait,
Iran has always had that capability. For some reason they didn’t use it until now.
Do you think that they're likely to stop now that they've started?
Trump and Netanyahu guaranteed that Iran would 'win' when they dropped the first bombs. Now he's threatening to piss off and leave everyone else to clean up the mess. There is no military solution to this cluster****,
I think the difference here is that Netanyahu had a alternative outcome if the regime didn't collapse which was removing their ability to be a regional power. Which they've (to some extent at least) achieved. In that respect; it has been militarily successful. I think also we need to include the dead hand of MBS into the asshole category next to Trump and Netahyahu, while he's not directly involved, he's been cheering it on from the sidelines, and is fully behind the efforts to reduce Iran's influence and the raise the price of oil is a nice side-outcome*, and close the straights, all of which are clearly strategic gains for SA
* despite sitting on millions of barrels of oil, SA needs the price to be about $99 for it to balance it's books,currently it's going broke at an alarming pace.
However now that it has, if Iran "wins", we'll be going through inflation shocks every few years when it closes the strait, plus it'll likely embolden Russia.
And what happens if the other side wins? Goodbye Cuba / Goodbye Palestine / Goodbye Southern Syria / Goodbye Northern Egypt / Goodbye Greenland / Goodbye Canada.
Another day with no diesel at the petrol stations. Different area to yesterday. Perhaps the “don’t call them shortages” are following me around, and everywhere else supply is just fine?
The shameless hypocrisy of this woman knows no bounds !!
Do you want her to welcome attacks on a shipping lane?
Do you want her to welcome attacks on a shipping lane?
No, I want her to acknowledge that the attacks on a shipping lane did not occur in a vacuum, and that the Iranians are not the only "reckless" actors, or even the most reckless actors. The way to re-open the SoH is pretty obvious, so it's entirely disingenuous to convene a meeting about it without recognising why it's closed in the first place.
Surely the meeting is in line with everything said by everyone else in NATO (beyond the USA)... once the ****wits have stopped bombing Iran, after there is a cease in the war more generally, the chances are the SoH will remain closed unless there are international efforts to change that... so start planning now. Personally I think a mix of India/****stan/China will end up with a bigger role in opening it up than Europe/Canada/Australia and/or any states in the region (other than Iran and Israel).
Start planning. That’s not the same as yapping about “recklessness” while aiding and abetting the war.
Ah, we’re at the “don’t criticise Iran” stage of this are we? It’s clear to everyone that the USA shouldn’t be attacking Iran. Let’s not pretend the Iran regime are not also a problem, especially now Trump’s give them a grand excuse to shut down a shipping lane long term.
was iran a problem before the unprovoked aatack? were shipping routes open?
it is the obvious retaliation for the illegal unprovoked attack.
don't forget this is all to distract from epstein
was iran a problem before the unprovoked aatack?
Remind us how many people the regime has murdered?
Ah, we’re at the “don’t criticise Iran” stage of this are we?
I’m not sure where you’ve dug that up from. But trying to solve a problem while ignoring its origin does not seem likely to succeed.
Remind us how many people the regime has murdered?
The Israeli regime? 70,000 is an often quoted figure, though the true number is many times that.
I'm unsure why you're referring to the Israeli regime when I was responding to a comment about the Iranian regime. Unless you're trying to defend it through whataboutery.
and? is that a reason to bomb indiscriminately killing many thousand civilians including a school where the us killed 150 children how many us citizens killedby their government? how many Palestinians killed by isreal? why didn't the us attack Israel?
ongoing killings allover the world
that is no justification for bombing a country.
I'm unsure why you're referring to the Israeli regime when I was responding to a comment about the Iranian regime. Unless you're trying to defend it through whataboutery.
I’m unsure why you brought up the subject of Iran’s oppression of its citizens. Unless you’re trying to deflect from the origins of this war.
was iran a problem before the unprovoked aatack?
Remind us how many people the regime has murdered?
Are you trying to imply that Netanyahu and Trump started this war because the Iranian regime killed its own citizens?
Are you trying to imply that Netanyahu and Trump started this war because the Iranian regime killed its own citizens?
I implied that Iran was a problem before the attack. Any other inference is your own.
I'm unsure why you're referring to the Israeli regime when I was responding to a comment about the Iranian regime. Unless you're trying to defend it through whataboutery.
I’m unsure why you brought up the subject of Iran’s oppression of its citizens. Unless you’re trying to deflect from the origins of this war.
It seems entirely obvious why I brought it up. If it genuinely passes you by then I can't help any further.
and? is that a reason to bomb indiscriminately killing many thousand civilians including a school where the us killed 150 children how many us citizens killedby their government? how many Palestinians killed by isreal? why didn't the us attack Israel?
The whataboutery in your post does you no credit. It is very obvious that Iran, contrary to what you said, was a problem prior to the attack.
There are no good guys here.
the whataboutery is claiming Irans conduct towards its population gives a green light to murder Irans citizens
why not attack Israel? Sudan? Myanmar? they all kill citizens
the reason for this attack is to distract the US population from epstein.
its an illegal unprovoked attack on a sovereign country under false pretexts
The US-based human rights organisation HRANA estimates at least 7,015 deaths from the protests.
Israel confirmed they had agents in the crowd.
As the protests unfolded, figures like former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Israel's heritage minister, Amichai Eliyahu, said that Mossad agents were among the demonstrators.
the whataboutery is claiming Irans conduct towards its population gives a green light to murder Irans citizens
Please quote this claim.
Well, yes, it does. I was trying to be generous.
If you say so.
Did you mean to quote something else?
nope. its pretty clear that that is being used to justify the bombing of Iran. several folk have said similar.
its whateboutery
Could you two quit it please? You're no longer adding to the discussion nor doing yourselves any favours.
There is no way Iran will back down now even if the country is ruined. They have nothing much to loose as their choice is bleak between the choice of choosing being a "slave" nation or being a poor but dignify free nation that never gives in to oppressors and aggressors. There is no way inflation will come down now unless Iran's demands are met. The USA and Israel want to carve up Iran but that strategy will backfire very quickly as Iran is holding the jugular vein of the world at strait of Hormuz. Iran strategy is simple, all enemies are not allowed to pass through. "You shall not pass!" Since this is not a war for Europe, they should simply distance themselves from the two oppressor and aggressor states. If Europe supports the oppressor and aggressor states, they can see their govts toppled when the general public can no longer endure the inflationary hardship.
The two "world leaders" are both pseudo-transformational leaders.
nope. its pretty clear that that is being used to justify the bombing of Iran. several folk have said similar.
You clearly believe that Iran isn't a problem, whereas I very much do. We're never going to agree so let's leave it there.
deleted as per crisl post
I’m rapidly loosing faith in the EU, when will they have the balls to speak out against the actual aggressors?
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/2039591233148928352?s=20
They have. But Iran's "defensive" actions that close the Strait of Hormuz are also a problem, and the EU, and UK, and others all across the world will want those actions to stop as well. Iran are not the "good guys" here, and the USA and Israel are wrong to be attacking them... both are true, and our politicians will still need to organise and respond... ideally diplomatically... to Iran's actions. I still think it'll have to be China/****stan/India that'll have to do the hard work though, Europe and the Gulf States will not be trusted by Iran.
Hegseth has fired the top US general
either because he was upset at the punishment of the ****s that flew apache gunships on a flypast kidrocks house
or because he's not insane enough to send ground troops into iran.....
They have. But
Wringing of hands and tut-tutting against the U.S acti9ns is worth the sum of **** all, and Israel’s actions in Lebanon/iran do not get called out in the slightest, sanction every single settlement and inhabitant along with making it illegal to support/raise funds in this country/the E.U. for settlements
Hegseth has fired the top US general
IIRC I think that’s the 15th he’s fired.
I can’t wait to see the equivalent of Generation Kill, a few years down the line, when it exposes the truth about what happens when you get rid of all the actual experienced military personnel and put a Fox News presenter and Christian crusader loon in charge of running your military instead.
Trump keeps bragging about annihilating the Iranians. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if they’d dropped most of that ordnance on the desert
Guess who killed the negotiator who was trying to temper down hostilities ?
https://bsky.app/profile/timothysnyder.bsky.social/post/3mika6luxkc23
But Iran's "defensive" actions that close the Strait of Hormuz are also a problem, and the EU, and UK, and others all across the world will want those actions to stop as well. Iran are not the "good guys" here, and the USA and Israel are wrong to be attacking them... both are true, and our politicians will still need to organise and respond... ideally diplomatically... to Iran's actions.
I can't see any other way of proceeding on this but to both open negotiations directly with Iran for safe passage of vessels through the Strait, and simultaneously agree to pay in Chinese Yuan for the transit. Trump and Hegseth's craziness has managed to cost the USA more than 200 billion dollars in direct costs alone, and the loss of the petrodollar link will probably be more damaging than the whole war.
The idea of Iran having a capable nuclear weapon that needed immediate action is laughable, emphasised by the fact that Israel is spending all their time Gaza-fying Beirut. I assume they know where all the radioactive stuff is, because you don't need viable material to make a bomb that would turn the centre of any major US city into a no-go area for the next century - and they've just been given both reason and legitimacy for doing so.
Trump has helped his genocidal pal Putin though by lifting sanctions and doubling oil prices, so that's good.
Guess who killed the negotiator who was trying to temper down hostilities ?
This is what happens when you use an AI targeting system (Maven) to allocate strike mission but don't have a sufficiently clear, reliable update intelligence loop built in. I'd bet money that he's "a name on a list" rather than an actual assassination .