does your model follow the framework in the video below
Almost, except the DATA is poorly described by those models as they assume mass action mixing (everyone contacts everyone else). Those models are statistically inferior to some other models such as Gompertz log-logistic growth model, where the break on exponential growth is a different shape. As for simulation of the models, well one can roll dice, and normally will if one can't write down the solution. For simple models you can solve them - for the ones in the video, you need to wheel out the differential equation engine. These equations are updated using Possion random numbers for new cases/deaths per day derived from the rate equations and simulated thousands of times to get a distribution. Good when there are 10 cases/day, not really needed when there are 1000s/day.
The really crazy thing is that the Pandemic Planning Comittee was set up by George W Bush.
Apparently, back in 2005 as New Orleans was drowning he began setting up a program to prepare for potential pandemics. He read a book about the Spanish Flu whilst on holiday and became obsessed by it. When he came back from his hols he wouldn’t shut up about it, his coleages thought him a little obsessed and tried to distract him from it. He wouldn’t give up on it and eventually managed to secure 7 billion in funding for the project. (there’s a speech he gave back in 2005 on you tube) Both Obama and Trump failed to keep up the stock levels of equipment as it either got used up or went out of date. It’s said that much of the material the US does have to fight the Pandemic is from what’s left over from the stockpile Bush set up.
Who’d have thunk?
Half way there… true that Trump wanted nothing do with the earlier work of the Pandemic Planning Committee, but he also got rid it in it’s more recent form, the more recent Global Health Security and Biodefense Unit. The shade you’re throwing at Obama is unjustified, he took the threat very seriously. There has only been one jackass of a President who didn’t care about being ready for a possible pandemic… the current one.
The biggest thing about Covid19 is that it has highlighted the weakness of both our politicians and journalists in regards to scientific knowledge rather than opinion or ideology. The number of people with a scientific background in parliament is pitiful, hence it is likely any government from our current group of politicians would perform similarly whatever their political persuasion.
Here you go, Obama’s people trying to prepare Trump’s regime for almost exactly what he is facing now:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
I disagree.
Option A - Chris Grayling
Option B - Yvette Cooper
There are some great MPs about, unfortunately just not in the cabinet as Boris filled it with Hard Brexit (remember that?) yes men (and women).
And you don’t even need to be party political about it:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4616502/user-clip-david-cameron-pandemic-preparedness
On both sides of the Atlantic, national populists have shown distain for scientists, especially those that make clear that an international approach is needed on issues such as pandemic control. They’re running back to them now, but only if they get to say “this great country” as often as possible in their own missives.
Kelvin,
Not throwing shade on Obama. I just didn't want to come across as partisan by redacting information from the source I got it from. I was also conscious that the narrative playing out was that Obama set up the committee, which I initially bought into. So wanted to be totally accurate.
Just like you, I didn't want to be party political about it!
I was aware how the Obama administration had tried to prepare the incoming administration on not only the potential for pandemics but other things like the apparatus for monitoring the dispersal of nuclear material post Soviet collapse which Trump disbanded.
The main, frankly quite astonishing thing is how seriously Bush took the threat considering what a clown he was in almost every other respect.
Doggone,
I don't doubt Cooper and Grayling would have done a better job than the current incumbent but they weren't exactly screaming from the sidelines. The only UK politician I am aware of who has been (tweeting if not screaming) from early on in this pandemic was Rory Stewart.
The narrative going round was that Trump disbanded the committee to spite Obama and that's fake news, something we should be really carefully about, we don't need to be giving the right wing press ammunition.
Nothing in what I've said is party political or prejudicial.( or in your post to be fair) There's only 3 people I've found who were sounding the alarm vigorously from early on in the curve, Nicholas Taleb, Anthony Scaramucci and Rory Stewart. None of them in positions of political power. Cooper and Grayling may not be in the cabinet but that shouldn't have disbarred them from screaming from the (smouldering) rafters.
What is indisputable is that Bush was screaming from the rafters before the match had been struck.
Inkster did you not make another thread specifically to keep political rambling separate from this one?
It was a fine idea.
It was a fine idea.
Plus one please
You don't have to be a scientist in parliament to take seriously what is said by epidemiologists. They are more likely to be disregarded, however, if what they propose is inconvenient and expensive. The decision to listen to Cummings and Halpern wasn't based on scientific ignorance, it was the hope of a few thousand dead codgers and a few nudges here and there and the problem would go away at minimal cost and solve a few other issues at the same time. Add into that scenario a few lunatic voices decrying experts and 'certainly not doing what the Europeans are doing' and you have a recipe for the disaster we now see. They are keen to cover this up but a lot of dead bodies scattered about makes it a bit more complicated even with a compliant press. I really do not think all politicians would have behaved in the same way simply because they were not scientists, this is about politics.
Let’s not forget it took a bit of nudge from the scientists
scientists-urge-government-to-enforce-social-distancing-now
Now about that step by step plan you keep saying your following?
Time for another post on Sweden...
I saw above that people were asking about population densities and whether that could be a factor in why we seem to be managing. Whilst it is true that we only have 10 million people in a country that is, well, large (3x the size of the UK maybe), that does not tell the whole story. Our population is heavily concentrated in a few urban areas and these areas are just as crowded as those in the UK. From memory, the large part of the folk live in either Stockholm, Malmö, Göteborg, Linköping or Uppsala, with Västerås and Örebro jostling for entry into the top five. After that, the towns are really just, well, towns. Once you start heading north there is really just forest from Uppsala upwards. Ask Howsyourdad1 what's between Gävle and Åre... (spoiler: Not much apart from forest and Östersund)
Back to Stockholm though, which has about a million people and is really dense. Apartment blocks are everywhere and it has a public transport system that is crammed on busy days. I can't really compare it to London, but it is certainly no less busy than any other major city. Yes, there may be more people living on their own, but they will be in apartment blocks full of 25-35 KVM flats and having to mix with people on the way down to the street and in the streets themselves. The odd thing is that this single living means that we have a higher than normal rate of suicides in single people, usually men, that find living on their own too much.
I genuinely cannot say why Sweden is doing better than other places (I hope it is though), but it might be that the government has been less able in recent years to privatise the health service (although the government before the Social Democrats took over tried to), or because the smaller population means that we can react faster to make plans and implement them. It could be that we have more preparedness for crisis, although that part of things seems to have slipped in recent years as the threat of Russian invasion has receded slightly (ignore the submarine incursions for a moment).
If we are ahead of things, I really think it is because our PM is both taking this seriously _and_ appears to be taking it seriously. The government has collected a lot of people around them that are able to communicate this to the population. Up until Easter we had daily briefings by the PM and a select panel of experts and decision makers; the PM was really just there to introduce the people around him and then let them carry the briefing. The experts stuck to facts, they offered advice, they asked us to act responsibility. There was no bluster and little politicing. The impression I got was that this was being taken seriously from the start and that all of us had a role to play. The population, for the most part, took this to heart and followed the guidance. It helps that Swedes have a natural predisposition to social distancing; they just asked us to crank that up to 11.
There will always be idiots, always the ones that want to go skiing at easter or go for food with their friends, but I hope that these will be fewer than they would be and that this can both slow the spread and protect the population. The spike I was expecting last week seems to have not truly appeared, but there does seem to be an increase of sorts. We'll have to see what the next week brings.
So, you have 1/6 of the U.K. population, & 1/10 of the deaths, growing at the same rate, doubling every 6 days.
So not really that much different then. If they are a week behind us, the per capita numbers are almost identical.
The governments appearing to do better at this are led by women? More likely to listen to advice, more compassionate maybe?
Maybe the lessons learnt about international cooperation and listening to experts will extend to climate change. Maybe.
We’re still at a point where large numbers of hospitalisations will be with those infected pre lockdown. Or passed on to household members etc.
Once the majority of newly reported infections are post lockdown we might be able to make a comparison of the different approaches. At least that’s my take on it.
The problem with comparing countries is that we aren't really comparing like for like, for example in UK and America, if you take out London and the SE and New York, numbers reduce significantly.
If you compare regions of the UK they'll fair similar to Sweden, Scotland is sitting at 110 deaths per million for exanple, Sweden at 89, UK as a whole 156. I don't have the number for London but it'll be much higher while conversely in other regions of England it'll be lower. So take out London and the SE and the UK is probably similar to Sweden. Not a million miles at least.
So it's just not really right to
directly compare country to country and draw simplistic conclusions. There are numerous factors in why some places get hit worse than others. I personally think incidence of global travel and interconnectivity must be playing some kinda factor. Would be really interesting to see a global animation of the virus traveling around the world and to compare it to main business and tourism routes and things like that just a hunch, but must be some kinda correlation there?
The virus also takes time to move around though so some countries just simply have more time, and there's different levels of preparedness and probably a million other factors that I can't think of you'd need to compare. Like how resilient a particular population is, how does the health of particular nation help or hinder in mitigating effects?
How the virus affects a nation isn't really a linear thing, so I don't think direct simplistic comparisons are really all that useful without the backup of alot more data.
But I don't expect that kinda sense to prevail mind you, people will still cry blue murder when all is done. But they'll probably be doing so without considering all factors.
Big one is people looking at the US and tutting their head, well obviously it's going to have big numbers but they're are still only at 67 deaths per million. That is significantly better than western europe has done.
This is a dress-rehearsal for the impact of CC. The populist/nationalist governments are making humanity weaker and it's more galling as, right now more than ever,we really need to work together.
It's so depressing. Trump, Boris etc are just behaving like bald men fighting over a comb whilst the world burns.
Boris singles out two foreign nurses for special praise! Lies are so deep rooted with this government, it would not surprise me one bit if this was in some way partly fabricated (the whole Boris in intensive care thing)
CC?
it would not surprise me one bit if this was in some way partly fabricated (the whole Boris in intensive care thing)
And all the Dr's and nurses, some of whom have been identified are in on the conspiracy ?
Don't be daft eskay, seriously.
As rightly said above, there's a thread for the politicos, all you kid on suits can go on there, keep this thread relevant to the actual situation.
Sesomah77
Would be really interesting to see a global animation of the virus traveling around the world and to compare it to main business and tourism routes and things like that just a hunch, but must be some kinda correlation there?
The reasons you give for London being worse hit than other parts of the country are all the reasons why our useless government should have been on top of this from the start.
Instead, they continued to allow people from Lombardy to fly into the country until very recently, and announced they would discuss Covid19 in COBRA - after the weekend.
Johnson was so blasé about it that he managed to catch it himself.
Let's not make excuses for them, they have been incompetent all the way along, even now.
The problem with comparing countries is that we aren’t really comparing like for like
We're not, but the best comparison possible needs to be made at some point when this is over - if country Y has 100 deaths per 100,000 and country X has 50 deaths per 100,000, government Y needs to be seeing what government X did differently, or what societal differences might account for it - less crowded housing, less poverty or whatever
Is any PPE made in the U.K.? Or can it be? Especially the single use stuff, or is there any way of making re-usable/washable/sterilisable replacements ?
Our monitoring and tracing remains appalling - a family friend was on the cruise ship that left Argentina early March and ended up in Florida after healthy passengers were transferred to another ship. (WhyTF 70 year olds decided a cruise at that point was a good idea, I don't know)
Eventually flown back into Heathrow, waved threw and put on the regular bus/Tube whatever to pick up their car to drive 100 miles back home to a rural community with no testing, restrictions or advice. They've chosen to properly self isolate at home for 14 days, but I don't get the government not grasping this much earlier.
Sesomah77
Would be really interesting to see a global animation of the virus traveling around the world and to compare it to main business and tourism routes and things like that just a hunch, but must be some kinda correlation there?
Apols if already posted. Animated map further down the page. Note 'Please be aware that specific inferred transmission patterns are only a hypothesis.'
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?animate=2019-12-08,2020-04-10,0,0,30000
Big one is people looking at the US and tutting their head, well obviously it’s going to have big numbers but they’re are still only at 67 deaths per million. That is significantly better than western europe has done.
What you're missing is that the vast majority of those deaths are concentrated in one major city/state and the US isn't short of those.
Eventually flown back into Heathrow, waved threw and put on the regular bus/Tube whatever to pick up their car to drive 100 miles back home to a rural community with no testing, restrictions or advice.
I really can't understand why this is still happening. They should be segregated on landing and quarantined.
Eventually flown back into Heathrow, waved threw and put on the regular bus/Tube whatever to pick up their car to drive 100 miles back home to a rural community with no testing, restrictions or advice.
I really can’t understand why this is still happening. They should be segregated on landing and quarantined.
We can only guess. Where community spread is already well-established, then not enough benefit from a formal quarantine process?
Seems standard process applies to folks arriving back to the UK...
'When you return to the UK: protect yourself and others
When you return to the UK on a flight from another country, you should follow the government advice that applies to everyone:
go straight home from the airport, avoiding public transport where possible
stay at home and only go outside for food, health reasons, daily exercise or work if you absolutely cannot work from home
if you go out: always stay 2 metres (6 feet) away from other people, do not touch your face, and wash your hands frequently, including as soon as you get home
If you start to have symptoms like a high temperature or frequent cough, go straight home and self-isolate for 7 days. See the guidance for households with a possible infection and call NHS 111 if your symptoms worsen.
For further guidance, visit gov.uk/coronavirus or visit nhs.uk for specialist medical advice.'
What you’re missing is that the vast majority of those deaths are concentrated in one major city/state and the US isn’t short of those
I'm not missing that at all. Was a large part of my point if you read the rest of the post.
oldnpastit
The reasons you give for London being worse hit than other parts of the country are all the reasons why our useless government should have been on top of this from the start.
Instead, they continued to allow people from Lombardy to fly into the country until very recently, and announced they would discuss Covid19 in COBRA – after the weekend.
Johnson was so blasé about it that he managed to catch it himself.
Let’s not make excuses for them, they have been incompetent all the way along, even now
I'm not really giving out reason or defending anyone, just making the point that it's all very complex. And that simplistic analysis isn't really helpful.
Seosamh77,
With regards a global animation of the virus in relation to business and tourism routes, I've seen a few and as you suggest they are interesting, conclusive even.
Ergo my suggestion that the aeroplanes should nave been told to 'stay at home'. would have had a huge impact on both the airline and hotel industries and other businesses related to tourism. Many other industries would have been unaffected. Spend a billion to save a trillion.
The other thread was for 'the political and economic consequences of covid 19.' Issues related to pandemic preparation are causal, not consequential.
Jamze
Subscriber
Sesomah77Apols if already posted. Animated map further down the page. Note ‘Please be aware that specific inferred transmission patterns are only a hypothesis.’
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?animate=2019-12-08,2020-04-10,0,0,30000/blockquote >
interesting ta, need to grasp exactly what I'm looking at mind, but ta.
Is any PPE made in the U.K.? Or can it be? Especially the single use stuff, or is there any way of making re-usable/washable/sterilisable replacements ?
To use the gowns as an example, we used to use washable gowns many years ago then moved over to the blue disposable ones you see on the news footage now.
So all the washable gowns are gone. You'd need to set up production of them, distribute them, then have laundry facilities in place to cope with the volume. Our laundry no longer exists in any fit state on site. I used to work there many years ago and would spend hours and hours folding theatre gowns, you'd need a lot of laundry staff to cope with the volume they're going through now!!
Then you'd need capacity in sterile services to cope with autoclaving them all.
Every solution has it's problems!!
Oh absolutely. I just think there has to be a better more sustainable pathway than millions of throwaway plastic gowns. cost is king.
100% of people infected with the virus are asymptomatic....... until they begin to show symptoms,
20% of people infected with the virus are asymptomatic and never show any symptoms.
Whilst the 20% figure could be variable, the 100% figure isn't
Saying that people don't need to wear a mask in confined public spaces if they are felling well is not just wrong, It's not even wrong.
differences might account for it – less crowded housing, less poverty or whatever
Not counting the same things. Scotland now including care home deaths for example. It will be interesting to see how the split goes between care home and hospital deaths.
BiiMC
Squirellking
More Cash
oldnpastit
+ 1
richardkennerly
+ a very huge 1
Seosamh77
+ 1/2
Re travel into and then on from airports. This question was asked at the April 10 briefing and the reply from Matt Hancock wa:
Matt Hancock: (15:14)
The answer to both questions Ben is the same, which is that we follow the science and we’ve followed the science in terms of international travel all along. And we saw right at the start of this pandemic that the country that the two countries that brought in the most draconian international travel restrictions, the United States and Italy, both of them have now got serious problems themselves. So I think that the science which said that which we followed on international travel has been born out by events.
Well, if that isn’t cherry picking the countries/data that support your position, I don’t know what is.
A good portrayal of deaths/population size averaged out over 7 days.
[url= https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49768815051_fa7d207701_k.jp g" target="_blank">https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49768815051_fa7d207701_k.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/2iPUbN8 ]Screenshot 2020-04-13 at 13.05.20[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/76248110@N06/ ]danthomassw13[/url], on Flickr
A good portrayal of deaths/population size averaged out over 7 days.
I'm not convinced of the value of death/million as a useful metric. In big countries like China or the US different parts may have very little to do with each other so some average doesn't give a good picture of how well mitigation steps are working. Even in Italy there was a big difference between Lombardy and the south, and the London figures are quite different from the rest of the country.
Eventually flown back into Heathrow, waved threw and put on the regular bus/Tube whatever to pick up their car
Mate & his gf got one of last flights from New York to UK , couple of weeks ago, he was shocked to find no checks at Heathrow & everyone just getting on tube, colleagues that went back to Germany & Italy both faced checks & in Italy was quarantined
And both Italy & usa instigated travel bans far too late (Germany started checking incoming passengers in February & mass testing has been good at tracing) USA banned travel from China ,but left Europe open then closed Europe but left UK open...
Population size is a very poor metric and was not significant for prediction of deaths in any model I have analysed to date. ECDC have added it to their dataset, so now it MUST be important. The reason country population is no so important is that the unit of transmission is not the country. It is a city, a region, but not a country - see London, New York, Lombardia, Surrey...
Looking at the UK unitary authorities, for example, there is likely to be little transmission between them (although this does stabilize endemic infections when it might otherwise die out - that's the end game). Variability is VERY low from authority-to-authority - OK London is ahead, but when all are rebased to the same point in their epidemics, they are all basically growing at the same rate and on the very same trajectory. Number of cases varies by less than 4x across 164 authorities! That is seriously low in exponential land. It says that the new cases are coming from within that authority.
Same thing with the country data. What I think we will eventually see is some correlation between OECD healthcare spending and case fatality rate (or more likely death doubling time). I have that data too, but am too busy to play at the moment.
Banning international travel sounds obvious, but the virus is likely transmissible prior to symptom onset,. You get a few more stabs at succesful transmission if you keep the border open longer, but it's not travel that has fueled the epidemic.
[TL:DR] The epidemic is really at a city scale, there isn't evidence of spread from city to city or region to region. The lockdown is having that effect.
Those statements are not contradictory, based on the "needs".
gregsd,
In the US, some media outlets have stopped broadcasting Trumps press briefings because they've realised he's using them as a substitute for his rallies and giving out false information.
I'm starting to think the same of the UK's press briefings as well. I stopped watching the briefings a week ago. The UK briefings have provided no useful information whatsoever, beyond saying 'stay at home' and even that advice has been contradicted by many of those giving it.
I could give an example of a country who stopped the planes coming in and instituted 2 weeks quarantine and tracking when the number of cases was 3 in early March. a country where numbers peaked at 30 per day on the 2nd April. yesterday they had 2 new cases though today they're back up to 6.
The US and Europe didn't even close the stable door once the horses had bolted, they left it ajar.[see More Cash and Squirellkings posts]
Edit:
and kimbers post.
Puts on tin foil hat.
Has Boris got over his brush with death a bit too quickly?
They can **** him off for a couple of months now and leave the grown ups in charge, and at the same time turn him into a martyr (but not a dead one).
Removes tin foil hat.
The US and Europe didn’t even close the stable door once the horses had bolted, they left it ajar.[see More Cash and Squirellkings posts]
Agreed, a ridiculous oversight.
TiRed - interesting insight into population size & transmission. I imagine that a large population with a lesser % infected leaves you much more vulnerable to a second wave.
Whilst I am purely an interested onlooker into all of this, it does strike me that one big difference from the uk to Italy/USA is that we do seem to have a more uniform spread everywhere. Could that be a good thing for an exit strategy?
Even partially shutting our economies down was unthinkable to the western lay-person just a few weeks ago. 70 years of unprecedented and uninterrupted peace, an ideological regime valorising the economy and work, no pandemics in living memory (almost), serious transmittable diseases at a population level seen as a thing of the past, a 'normal' of turbo-capitalism with goods and people free-flowing across borders are several reasons.
TiRed,
you're contributions to this thread have probably been the most valued and informed on a scientific/statistical level so I'm not questioning you, rather I have a couple of questions for you.
You say 'banning international travel sounds obvious, but the virus is likely transmissible prior to symptom onset'. I understand this, thats why I posted earlier that 100% of those infected are asymptomatic until they begin to show symptoms. Surely 2 weeks quarantine and stringent tracking measures would have addressed this?
Secondly, although my observations are heuristic rather than scientific, how would you count for the data from the country I mentioned, which instituted the aforementioned measures had seen the results they have? i.e. starting to bring the curve down within 3 weeks of instituting measures?
Edit:
And thirdly, you mention we are likely to see a correlation between OECD healthcare spending and case fatality rate [I can see that being relevant with regards experiences in Europe} but the data from the country I mentioned would be an outlier in relation to that comparison.
Has Boris got over his brush with death a bit too quickly?
He managed to relocate from Downing Street to Chequers without any of the "second home" controversy. Job done.
Harry_the_Spider
Subscriber
Puts on tin foil hat.Has Boris got over his brush with death a bit too quickly?
They can **** him off for a couple of months now and leave the grown ups in charge, and at the same time turn him into a martyr (but not a dead one).
Removes tin foil hat.
I agree entirely. When I spent a week in intensive care (sepsis not covid 19 admittedly) I had to be wheeled out in a wheelchair and looked like I had spent months in a concentration camp.
He looks remarkably well considering the docs thought he was ill enough to be in ICU for so many days.
Boris was looking ropey before he went to hospital and looked just as ropey in the new broadcast.
His is not the only story of someone going in to hospital, having a couple of days with oxygen, a couple of days recovery and then coming out to recuperate.
If he doesn't rest, he'll be back in hospital in a week
He looks remarkably well considering the docs thought he was ill enough to be in ICU for so many days.
Could he have delivered the speech like that just days out of ICU - I don't know. I guess over the days there will be medics elsewhere who have direct knowledge of C-19 treatment and recovery who have an opinion on that.
If the media rumour mill is to be believed Boris is a hardened bon viveur. He could well be capable of delivering a coherent speech with an ox stopping hang over. We don't know if he gave the speech and then has been wiped out after. It's a critically important speech, establishes his moral authority as a genuine sufferer, getting it right brings benefits in selling policy in the future. Maybe cynical but there is an established modus operandi for team Boris. I did think putting subtitles on was over egging the pudding slightly. He didn't sound much different to his usual spunky normal self - definitely looked more flushed. Anyway that's me making use of the Easter egg wrapping.
He looks remarkably well considering the docs thought he was ill enough to be in ICU for so many days.
He looked bloody awful and if you listen he’s having to breath in quite deeply after a few words. Switch off your idiotic conspiracy head. Not everyone comes out in a wheelchair.
And it’s recorded. Could have had multiple attempts to get through it. Pretty obvious he’s been ill. Why on earth would the NHS staff be involved in a cover up?
The UK briefings have provided no useful information whatsoever,
True, but they have provided some laugh-out-loud moments like Patel's 'seventy trillion' numbers gaff.
Just watched our neighbour let her children play with the next doors dog. They've all just gone for a happy walk around the block with the dog; her and the three children. She works for the NHS. If she doesn't understand, or care about the rules, then what's the point!
Sounds like she understands just fine.
Some staff have kept away from their family, most haven’t, depends on role I suppose.
Dogs aren’t an issue.
Yeah you can exercise other people’s dogs.
Kelvin - not sure I follow you? I understood we were meant to be social distancing, and this includes our pets. They happily passed this dog around between the two families, as it is quite small. The dog was licking their faces. How is that any different to shaking hands etc?
Why on earth would the NHS staff be involved in a cover up?
Could you cover it up - no. Can you rule to Mr Cummings see potential in a situation - no. Ultimately all of the stuff away from the stats is just pub talk. What this shows is when you say something to people there are a lot of different interpretations of what it means.
Aren't dogs the lunch time topic?
Not for me we had lamb.
Aren’t dogs the lunch time topic?
Daily lunch time topic.
Now Tigers… don’t go sharing them.
I understood we were meant to be social distancing, and this includes our pets
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-advice-for-people-with-animals
The dog was licking their faces. How is that any different to shaking hands etc?
Well if I licked a strangers face rather than shake their hand it would certainly seem different.
Surely 2 weeks quarantine and stringent tracking measures would have addressed this?
I think it is very hard to call. People moved around spreading the virus without knowing or showing any signs. Earlier would always have been better, but it is likely that the importation part would have been here before action could be taken anyway. It does stop re-importation to fire up another wave though.
starting to bring the curve down within 3 weeks of instituting measures?
Earlier lockdown will have helped with importation and definitely the spread. I am sure of that. Decision to lockdown, aka crash the economy, was a tough one to take. In the UK it was probably taken on the strength of seeing Italy accept it. Modelling will have helped, but politically this was most likely the driving force.
but the data from the country I mentioned would be an outlier in relation to that comparison.
That's called statistics 😉 There are always going to be outliers. Just as in law, hard cases make bad laws. One learns from outliers, but they really aren't the norm. Any country that disproportionately spends on testing will probably fare well.
Now Tigers… don’t go sharing them.
Tigers are a more appropriate tea time topic
Well if I licked a strangers face rather than shake their hand it would certainly seem different
As long as you sniff their arse first it’s fine. At least that’s what I understand what the government means.
They can **** him off for a couple of months now and leave the grown ups in charge
It concerns me that you class Raab, Hancock, and Patel as grown-ups.
I'd be happier leaving the country in charge of Larry the Cat and a Magic 8-Ball.
As long as you sniff their arse first it’s fine. At least that’s what I understand what the government means.
I took it as anyone outside the house - bit like hook a duck. Catch em, attach em and dispatch em. Use a broom handle for the appropriate 2m separation. Sniffing works on a not shaking way but it needed to be read with the appropriate separation guidance.
He looked bloody awful and if you listen he’s having to breath in quite deeply after a few words. Switch off your idiotic conspiracy head. Not everyone comes out in a wheelchair.
Great to see that amongst our occasionally panicky questions and overreaction, Drac, TiRed and a couple of the others are remaining beacons of common sense and actual knowledge
Cheers it just doesn’t help people putting up daft theories.
Drac
Subscriber
Cheers it just doesn’t help people putting up daft theories.
Agreed, but Johnson & the government (politicians in general) have a credibility problem, even his fans know he's full of it!
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1198255710875869185?s=19
Which is all fine until a real crisis comes along & it becomes life & death stuff
France staying locked till 11th of May.
Macron saying virus is still months away.
Herd immunity is not going to happen for very long time.
Masks might be necessary in public transport etc...