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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
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nickcFull Member
Question for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?
Because if the way the virus binds to the Ace2 receptor. Some people on ACE inhibitors may be at greater risk
zilog6128Full MemberMuch of the medical industry is based on artificially inducing scarcity through Intellectual Property laws and patents. We’re prepared ta accept this and sacrifice a certain number of people at the alter of the Economy but we can choose for this scarcity to not exist any time we want.
good point. Why can’t medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts like Gates/Buffet, rather than private companies/shareholders lining their profits? Maybe we will see a shift.
outofbreathFree MemberAnd in the long term, a vaccine was “one way out of this”, he said. But a vaccine would not happen very quickly
It’s not too bad at the moment, but being on lockdown … what for the next 18 months? Honestly, it just doesn’t add up to me.
One way out. Maybe they’ll develop a test for antibodies first. If they can work out who has resistance then things can quickly move onto a normal footing as people who’ve had it are identified and can live a normal life.
There was also talk on R4 this morning of a cheaper/easier/quicker test for people who’ve currently go CV. Also useful.
mrmonkfingerFree MemberThey don’t predict 250k in the UK, they say that’s the 2 year do nothing scenario.
Page 13, “do nothing”, minimum 410k deaths, max 550k deaths, depending on the R0.
250k is when “assuming infinite ICU availability” which clearly is not the case.
outofbreathFree MemberPage 13, “do nothing”, minimum 410k deaths, max 550k deaths, depending on the R0.
250k is when “assuming infinite ICU availability” which clearly is not the case.
Thanks.
Which takes us back to the original question…
stevextcFree Membermolgrips …
(Sorry I saw your Q… paraphrasing “who are the WHO experts”, I’m not scrolling back to find it)
Authors are all referenced and peer reviewed but I suspect me copy/pasting names from them is as pointless to you as me.
This falls under GLOPID
You can click through…GLOPID
Chair is:
BIOGRAPHY OF YAZDAN YAZDANPANAH
Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Professor of Infectious Disease, Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital and Paris Diderot University, FranceYazdan Yazdanpanah is currently the Head of Infectious Disease department at Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Paris Diderot University, France. He is Director of the DeSCID team « Decision Science In Infectious Disease Prevention, Control and Care » within the Inserm IAME UMR1137 unit at Paris Diderot University. He is also the Coordinator of the REACTing network (REsearch and ACTion targeting emerging infectious diseases) of INSERM wich aims to coordonate french research actions during the outbreaks.
Yazdan Yazdanpanah became an MD from the Lille School of Medicine, France in 1996. He qualified from the same institution first as a hepato- gastro-enterologist in 1996 and next an infectious disease specialist in 2002. He obtained a Master of Science degree in epidemiology from the Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, US in 2000, and a Ph.D degree in public health from the Bordeaux School of Public Health in 2002. In 2006, he became Professor of Infectious Disease. His research interests include the clinical epidemiology of HIV and viral hepatitis, and the pharmaco-economics of antimicrobial agents. Professor Yazdanpanah has published extensively in peer-reviewed journals and makes frequent presentations at numerous national and international meetings.
stevextcFree Memberzilog
Why can’t medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts like Gates/Buffet, rather than private companies/shareholders lining their profits? Maybe we will see a shift.
Funnily enough the Gates foundation does contribute to research… leading to a whole load of conspiracy theories on COVID-19
outofbreathFree Member“who are the WHO experts”
They’re saying “test, test, test” which to the layman seems obvious, yet very few countrys are doing widespread testing. So there must be some missing information that explains why few countries are doing widespread testing.
I suspect testing takes a lot of time and resource and has to be done in a lab. So for that reason it’s not practical to do it widely and when you get a result it’s a few days out of date.
Plus of course it’s a snapshot. The tested person could catch CV 5 minutes later that day or recover from it. There was talk on R4 this morning of a faster simpler test that can be widely deployed.
A test the tells you if someone has had it strikes me as far more useful, who knows if or when that will arrive.
All of the above is guessing but I really can’t see any other reason why something so obvous isn’t happening in Europe.
dazhFull MemberJust been to the supermarket. Definitely not much social distancing going on. Complete business as usual. Also lots of overheard talk about ‘a lot of fuss about nothing’. If anyone doubts we’re going to be fully locked down just go out and have a walk around town.
Why can’t medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts
This was in the labour manifesto and everyone laughed at it and said it wasn’t feasible.
outofbreathFree Memberwhich is?
This:
DRJ: OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
With my reply with a bit of guesswork:
OOB: We don’t know how many deaths China will have because they hit the pause button.
Italy, they’re on 2978 deaths currently. Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn’t that far away for them.
…and the media routinely quote the worst case estimates as ‘the estimates’ ‘cos that sells well.
So I dunno, I’m just following the guidelines and hoping for the best. 🙂TwodogsFull MemberQuestion for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?
Because if the way the virus binds to the Ace2 receptor. Some people on ACE inhibitors may be at greater risklink to science please?
crazy-legsFull MemberJust been to the supermarket. Definitely not much social distancing going on. Complete business as usual.
Difficult to social distance when you’re in a scrum for the last bag of pasta!
Supermarket was unbelievable earlier, it looked like a cross between Black Friday and Christmas Eve.
dazhFull Memberlink to science please?
Trust me he knows what he’s talking about. He’s probably a bit busy right now too 😉
nickcFull Memberlink to science please?
Of the binding process? There is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it’s not known (hence maybe)
DrJFull MemberDRJ: OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
Obviously had my wires crossed about 250K being the estimate with mitigation. Apologies for the detour!
TwodogsFull Memberhere is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it’s not known (hence maybe)
the second bit, I wasn’t having a go – as I’m on them, I’m genuinely interested…I’ve not been able to find any confirmation that it increases risk. Even whether high bp increases the risk or not seems “undecided” – NHS doesn’t mention it as a risk factor, but something in the Lancet said it was.
mrmonkfingerFree Memberso what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
With my reply with a bit of guesswork:
OOB: We don’t know how many deaths China will have because they hit the pause button.
Italy, they’re on 2978 deaths currently. Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn’t that far away for them.hmm.
Wuhan region on full military style lockdown, stopped at 3250 dead, region population 11 mil. China will be looking very hard at any suspect new cases when they start opening up. They may have another outbreak. They’re building more beds and testing facilities. They’re expecting to ‘manage’ this in the provinces.
Italy, population are relied on to behave – but don’t behave, result, the virus is everywhere. They’re at 3k dead now. What their own internal predictions are, I don’t know, or how the imperial modelling could be applied. Their country serves as a good model as to what will happen here. Probably have similar adherence to the government advice too. Italian population size roughly the same as here.
Italy went into full lockdown 10/3/20. If we go into full lockdown right now this moment, we are still only a week “ahead” of them. Which we won’t. The longer we delay, the more die. It beggars belief that we’re still seeing stories about Italy as if the same could not happen here, and yet it is exactly what is happening here.
Progress isn’t exponential – see ‘logistic’ function.
yourguitarheroFree MemberHmmm, had been thinking about taking out a loan for a campervan! Gotta find those positives.
outofbreathFree MemberItaly, population are relied on to behave – but don’t behave, result, the virus is everywhere. They’re at 3k dead now. What their own internal predictions are, I don’t know, or how the imperial modelling could be applied. Their country serves as a good model as to what will happen here.
That’s DrJ’s question, it’s a good model for us, yet our prediction is 250k if we had infinate respirators, meanwhile for Italy:
IF the rate of infection has turned past the half way mark, the death toll will continue to rise for another two weeks (or however long the “average” severe case runs for). That could put Italy at anywhere up to 20000 deaths. Then they have the far side of the curve to traverse. This will double the figures, but, the end is in sight.
Anyway, sounds like nobody knows the answer. What actually happens, time will tell.
TiRedFull Memberlink to science please?
Derek Lowe is always worth a read… Midway between layman and specialist. If you don’t know, he writes a nice blog on drug discovery as a Medicinal Chemist
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/17/angiotensin-and-the-coronavirus
marinerFree Member2). The above is evidence that strict lockdown is effective but no one is sure if there will be waves once it’s lifted (China & SK haven’t seen the follow-on waves some are predicting
An example of something that works in practice but not in theory.
3). The Imperial College modelling is using too pessimistic assumptions, real world data is not matching it so far
Nassim Nicholas Taleb the Black Swan Event author thinks the virus modeling being used in the uk is on a par with the treasury economic forecaster before 2008 crash.
dazhFull Member‘Iain Duncan Smith says universal basic income during coronavirus pandemic would be 'disincentive to work'
For most jobs that’s what we want. These people are fanatics and are going to kill people. https://t.co/QqrlKfyxWq
— Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) March 19, 2020
binnersFull MemberThat man really is a complete psychopath, isn’t he?
He’s dedicated his entire life to causing as much misery and suffering as possible, preferably to the poorest and most vulnerable in society
A total and utter ****!!!
mrmonkfingerFree Memberwe all knew IDS was a ****, nothing new there.
yet our prediction is 250k if we had infinate respirators
That was “do nothing” w.r.t. social distancing (etc), i.e. let it rip through the population.
mrmonkfingerFree MemberGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the nation on television on Wednesday, which she has previously only done for her annual New Year message.
“The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since World War Two has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity,” she said.
That was a brave reference.
molgripsFree Memberparaphrasing “who are the WHO experts”
No I meant do you know who the UK experts are?
I think the reason we aren’t testing is that our under-resourced NHS cannot afford the manpower to do that many tests. Guessing that we are concentrating on testing those presenting with severe symptoms.
The government may be listening to its advisers, which I suspect they are because they are taking part in the PCs, but it’s probably also stopping them from explaining everything fully i.e. we’re quite **** and we can’t do what we need to because of chronic under-investment in the NHS for so long because that would be politically undesirable.
tpbikerFree MemberOf the binding process? There is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it’s not known (hence maybe)
Interesting. I had read that but as Nick says it wasn’t proven and folks were saying the verall risk is greater if you stop taking them.
Is the general risk with folks with cardiovascular issues who aren’t on those drugs that basically the heart gets put under far too much stress trying to pump oxygen and gives up?
stevextcFree MemberNo I meant do you know who the UK experts are?
Sorry, mis-understanding. Some thread indexing issues so I’d seen it but misread.
The government may be listening to its advisers, which I suspect they are because they are taking part in the PCs, but it’s probably also stopping them from explaining everything fully i.e. we’re quite **** and we can’t do what we need to because of chronic under-investment in the NHS for so long because that would be politically undesirable.
When the PM can’t read a 2 page memo and waves everything away as irritating detail then ???
Don’t know if you every read the CAIB (Columbia Accident Investigation) or shortened comments from Tufte… synopis…
https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/caibRead the as information is filtered up para
TwodogsFull MemberDerek Lowe is always worth a read… Midway between layman and specialist. If you don’t know, he writes a nice blog on drug discovery as a Medicinal Chemist
Thanks for that….just about followed it 😀
joefmFull Membermrmonkfinger
Member
German Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the nation on television on Wednesday, which she has previously only done for her annual New Year message.
“The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since World War Two has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity,” she said.
That was a brave reference.presumably talking about the aftermath rather than enacting the war…
ElShalimoFull Member@mariner – Taleb is often quoted as some kind of visionary but he’s not (he’s just a very naughty economist).
I think a lot of his work is not that ground-breaking as what he’s often referring to in pseudo-laymans terms, can usually be described as epistemic and aleatory risk associated with the system, or event, that he’s discussing. Indeed the very concept of Black Swans is crap, there’s loads of the buggers in New Zealand 😉
It has even led to people bastardising the term and now people talk about grey-swan events. FFS !
mrmonkfingerFree MemberJesus.
Just worked out the logistic function for Italy.
Assumptions:
Assumed today is the point where new cases start dropping back (inflection). i.e. before today the cases were increasing exponentially, going forward the curve looks like the first half in reverse.
Extrapolated back from the current death toll to total cases 12 days ago.
Assumed 1% mortality
Assumed three day doubling rate, which certainly applied during early case detection, but this may be too aggressive, a four day period might be more appropriate.
Total dead 104k.
With four day doubling, about half that.
****.
zippykonaFull MemberSome people have no real idea of what’s going on.
My friend asked her parents if they needed anything as she was braving the supermarket.
This is their shopping list……
LETTUCE X 2 (PREF LITTLE GEMS NOT THE FLOPPY ONE)
BROCCOLI
CABBAGE (PREF POINTED ONE, NOT SAVOY)
LEEKS
ONIONS (NOT TOO SMALL BUT NOT TOO BIG)
BASIL POT (CHECK LEAVES)
MUSHROOMS
PEARS (PREF CONFERENCE, NOT WILLIAMS AND NOT TOO RIPE)
2 BANANAS
BON MAMAN BITTER ORANGE MARMALADE
MARIGOLD SUISSE BOUILLON TUB
KNORR BEEF STOCK CUBES
YOGURTS X 3 (NOT THOSE GREEK TOTAL ONES)
BENECOL RASPBERRY
BENECOL PEACH & APRICOT
DOUBLE CREAM – MEDIUM SIZE
WAFER THIN AIR DRIED HAM X 2
PIZZA EXPRESS HOUSE SALAD DRESSING
FOOD BIN LINERS
MOZZARELLA SLICES IN RED PACKET
WALNUT PIECES (NOT HALVES, THEY ARE IN A YELLOW PACKET)
DIGESTIVES
HOT CROSS BUNS
MIXED BAG OF FUN SIZE FAMILY FAVOURITES (SHOULD INCLUDE MALTESERS/MILKY WAY ETC BUT NOT BOUNTY)
WHITE WINE (I WOULD PREFER TORRETTA DI MONDELLI PINOT GRIGIO DEL VENEZIE)
WAITROSE PACKET OF MIXED SOFT ROLLS)
chewkwFree MemberBBC news just mentioned that the fatality rate in Italy has overtaken China now but did not give the exact number … ☹️
p/s: just shown on BBC screen on PM announcement now. The number is 3,045.
EdukatorFree MemberMy world is getting smaller by the day, no more recreational biking and walking/jogging limited to within 1-2km from home. Beaches and mountains out of bounds. All good measures IMO.
mrmonkfingerFree Member3,405.
worldometers.com has live numbers.
Italy’s train started accelerating a long time ago.
It will take a long time to slow it down and stop.
I really do hope the confinement measures have worked to stop the spread of new cases. Their lockdown is at around day #10.
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