The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

Fourth day of not being closer than 2m to anyone except Madame who has a stinking boring normal cold thanks to being on a ski bus full of school kids last Wednesday. Garden’s looking tidier.

As a medical professional I’m going to go with her attitude towards it, rather than Daz’s

My attitude is nothing more or less than the official advice coming from the government. Am I worried? Yes, absolutely, I’ve got two very high risk parents who are following your ‘get a grip’ mantra to the letter and still going down the shops and the golf club etc. I’ve also got medical professional friends, including a hospital doctor, who say the exact opposite to your mate and are much more worried than me so I’ll carry on listening to them whilst hoping they’re wrong.

Aside from the health perils, I’m actually more worried about the economic fallout. Seems we’re not allowed to talk about that now though as many would rather have one less thing to worry about. That’s fine, the health stuff comes first, but it can only be successful if society functions, and that needs everyone to recognise the magnitude of this and what their part in it is.

Now I’m off out on my bike, on my own. So no change there then.

You are missing the containment and contact tracing work done in other countries. We’ve let it spread. The end result is more deaths.

True but it does look like a big difference. I didnt see anywhere what the modelling predicts for Wuhan. I’m sure it’s been done. I’m not pretending to have spotted a problem, just curious about the figures being spread around.

Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking.

I don’t know about that. Their rate of increase has slowed, due to the measures they’ve introduced. Projecting a peak based on that change ‘may’ be premature. On the other hand, our government seems to think that the Imperial prediction can be mitigated to tens of thousands rather than hundreds, and France, Spain and Germany alongside Italy will be the tests of whether that is achievable.

I’ve just had a look and where I live, there are 15 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053

That is a low figure, but they’re not testing, so the community spread is unknown, and quite possibly significantly higher. There is room between a nonchalant shrug and outright wibbling to find the correct concern/stoicism balance.

+1 dazh

there was a thread started about the army rolling into London and beyond from this weekend to ‘assist’ with some form of lockdown……the thread was closed PDQ…

Makes you think…

I haven’t looked at our contracts with the nursery(s) yet. Typically is it by term or month? Or longer?

If we don’t need the care and we’re not legally obliged to pay, we won’t be paying.

We have a terrific relationship with both settings but we’re talking about substantial sums of money here.

*If* the Nursery(s) wanted to charge a holding fee to keep the place open (10pc or something) we’d do that for sure.

(Most likely we’ll still need the care, but in the event we don’t…)

Well this is where the government needs to step in isn’t it?

If everyone says ‘I’m not paying’ then nurseries go kaput, and we just have to hope that all the staff hang around, living on benefits, until such time as it’s cost effective for the nurseries to open again.

As far as I’m concerned, nurseries are a public service, and the fees are akin to the tax that pays for the NHS etc. I don’t resent paying that tax even when I’m not ill.

Continuing the tax analogy, if our family income is unaffected, then we can continue to afford the fees/’nursery tax’ and as such it’s entirely right and proper that we continue to pay it.

Using the shutdown as an opportunity to save some cash while the nurseries struggle is short-sighted at best I think.

Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking.

IF the rate of infection has turned past the half way mark, the death toll will continue to rise for another two weeks (or however long the “average” severe case runs for). That could put Italy at anywhere up to 20000 deaths. Then they have the far side of the curve to traverse. This will double the figures, but, the end is in sight.

And that would be a brilliant result for the containment strategy.

Then, they have to focus on testing the community at large, to track down every fresh infection, to prevent a flare up.

You can see all this played out on the China graphs here:

worldometers china coronavirus

where the inflection on the new confirmed infection graph came at around 10 feb. The deaths graph lags the infections graph. After the 10 feb, deaths tripled.

IANA epidemiologist, but I do understand graphs, and where we are at right now on those graphs – assuming we can do as good a job at shutting this thing down as China did – does not look good for the elderly.

Then we need a vaccine to stop it happening again.

Makes you realise just how big a bullet the world dodged when SARS was shut down by China a decade ago.

I’ve kind of been avoiding putting my thoughts together on this regarding the economy but here goes.

We are naturally religious creatures. A religion that many have joined is the religion of The Economy. They treat it as if it were as real as real things. Real things include food, shelter, and disease. The list of real things is actually quite short whereas the list of things in The Economy feels almost infinite.

The fact is, there is enough food and shelter to go around. The problem is that the religion of The Economy has convinced people that starvation and homelessness in the West is inevitable.

What we are hopefully about to realise is that The Economy is an imaginary thing. It’s a game we all choose to play and we can take a break from it any time we want.

There is enough food to go around. There is no need for people to lose their homes due to lack of wages during this period.

The third real thing I mentioned, disease, is a bit more tricky. Disease treatment relies on The Economy but even that rigid connection will hopefully loosened during this period.

This kind of thing should not happen at all but especially not during this period:

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-3d-print-valves-treatments?fbclid=IwAR2N-T2zG–ok5ki2LQEOBb6ImL98qlk5xmeWyCDutOE8ok8vlwsh487fww

It’s the kind of thing that people’s belief in The Economy allows to happen all the time, ie people die because of trivial costs and patent protection, but I hope we realise that when we are in a crisis these things are not real but imaginary.

I hope if anything comes from this crisis it’s to crystalise in people’s minds the difference between real things and what The Economy tells people are real things.

Edit: At least I hope I’m right. I work in the oilfield and I’m almost certain to lose my job soon.

Shits getting real

Well if I get it, I know who I’ll be holding responsible

Beaker is a perfect analogy for all those out panic buying. It’s all, “me, me, me, me”….

Doom Eternal out tomorrow, fellow self-isolationists!

OK Doomer.

Gotta love a straight-talking politician.

“French Interior Minister Christophe Castaner has said “some people think they’re some kind of modern-day hero when they break the rules – but they’re imbeciles, and a danger to themselves”.”

IANA epidemiologist, but I do understand graphs, and where we are at right now on those graphs – assuming we can do as good a job at shutting this thing down as China did – does not look good for the elderly.

Agree with all that. If (IF) Italy is peaking they may end up with about 40,000 deaths as you say. Is the difference between that 40,000 and our 250,000 (similar total population) really down to slowness of BoJo to react? If so, that makes him higher on the list of mass murderers than Tony Blair (maybe not…)

Beaker is a perfect analogy for all those out panic buying. It’s all, “me, me, me, me”….

OK Doomer.

Are we are running at normal Beaker / Boomer levels for a thread of this magnitude? I think I did the Brexit thread twice so not really got a frame of reference. Number of tinfoil hats being dished out – normal or not? Just so I know when to panic.

Makes you realise just how big a bullet the world dodged when SARS was shut down by China a decade ago.

one of my colleagues was locked down for 3 months while at UNi in China, shes a data scientist & mathematical modeler

she has been saying repeatedly for some time that we should have shut down much earlier, she helped organise the letter to the government warning them that they needed to shut down, as well as actually test enough people

Flip cakeandcheese – really sorry to see that.

DrJ
Member
OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints few the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??

They don’t predict 250k in the UK, they say that’s the 2 year do nothing scenario.

Even with all measures in place they expect 20,000 deaths in the UK, over 2 years.

Read the Imperial college report. It’s very clear.

It’s also why I think people are well off about things. Going batshit about the herd immunity thing, it was never a goal. It’s just what’s going to happen and I think it will come back into the discussion at some point.

It’s going through the populace regardless.

And also all the strategies are at the moment is lock down lock down lock down. Which is fair enough it’s absolutely necessary, and was always in the UK s planning, but where’s the rest of the plans for how to come out of this?

I’m not hearing any solutions. The idea of protect the elderly and vulnerable is literally all we can do until a vaccine is ready for mass distribution.

really down to slowness of BoJo to react

No, it isn’t. The UK aren’t predicting 250k deaths.

The UK strategy has always been to follow the science. It’s what they are trying to do.

It must tell you something that sturgeon is on the exact same page as Boris..

People need to be non partisan on this and inform themselves better.

It must tell you something that sturgeon is on the exact same page as Boris..

No, Sturgeon is on the same page as the scientists. Boris just gets handed the page at teatime and told to read it out on the telly.

That’s pish perchy. She basically said as much in her press conf yesterday.

Like I say leave out yer allegiances on this one. It’s helping no one.

I’ve just had a look and where I live, there are 15 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053
Get a ****ing grip!🙄

For the non-mathematcians: 1,200,000 = 15*2^N so N = log(1,200,000/15)/log(2) = 16 doubling times or currently about one month. This is a huge over-simplification and the doubling time in rural areas and increase in immunity will limit spread (that is the herd part). But it is an illustration of why authorities are worried.

BTW even if 0.5% of people require hospitalisation, which is an underestimate, and assume there are about 140,000 total x (1.2million/50 million) = 3300 beds in lancashire then time to 660,000 cases is 14-15 doubling times. Assuming all beds are available now (in fact I imagine 80% are occupied.

But it is an illustration of why authorities are worried.

Like many have said, people, and apparently Binners, just don’t understand the concept of exponential growth.

Like I say leave out yer allegiances on this one.

Nothing to with allegiances. It’s about the perceived intelligence and empathy of the respective leaders.

Basicaly, It appears that she’s been reading her brief and understanding it as much as she can and , based on appearances on the telly at least, he probably hasn’t.
He looks like a broken man whilst his advisors answer the difficult questions.

I’ve just had a look and where I live, there are 15 confirmed cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053

And from that we know they have tested at least 15 people, there are 15 confirmed cases and Lancashire has a population of 1,210,053.

Basicaly, It appears that she’s been reading her brief and understanding it as much as she can and , based on appearances on the telly at least, he probably hasn’t.
He looks like a broken man whilst his advisors answer the difficult questions

And you say you’ve no bias? Jesus man..

Anyone got any thoughts on the impact of people shifting out to second homes. Isolate or not? Don’t actually have one it’s more one of those what if thoughts. Since it seems there’s still no hard and fast on where the big hotspots are there has to be a risk?

Live scenes from the wine and spirits aisle as parents across the UK prepare for school closures. pic.twitter.com/jxx0sntnty

— Have I Got News For You (@haveigotnews) March 19, 2020

Not reading thread so apologies if this has been said. but some schools are looking for old laptops and tablets for students from homes without access to them. Look for requests on internet, rather than inundating schools with calls if you can help.

Germany is now advising people to stock up on sausages and cheese, just in case of the Wurst Käse Scenario.

#fakenews

#notfakenews

Just been out for a run along the local track and there were loads of kids happily walking with elderly relatives, holding hands, riding on shoulders etc. And that’s before the schools have shut.

Honestly a pint tonight in a quiet pub doesn’t seem that bad…

.. if we sat in the beer garden then it would be outside activity..

They don’t predict 250k in the UK, they say that’s the 2 year do nothing scenario.

Thanks.

It’s just what’s going to happen

That’s my take on it. If a decent/practical test for people who have antibodies comes out that changes everything. If a vaccine comes along in 14 months or so that changes everything. Until then “herd immunity” by catching it is what will happen.

I’m just about to get my hair cut too..

Which is permitted in Belgium, a lock down country. Dunno about Italy or France. According to “CoronaVirus newscast” is a bit of a misnomer in Europe. I won’t be, mind you.

It must tell you something that sturgeon is on the exact same page as Boris..

+1

…and Mark Drakeford. They all have a say in this and if they had a better strategy I’m sure they’d be saying so in private and in public.

Anyone got any thoughts on the impact of people shifting out to second homes.

Immediately quarantine them in a cave and requisition their second homes to be used as field hospitals

@BruceWee interesting thoughts, but although The Economy is an abstract concept it is indeed a real thing. It’s big and complicated and hard (impossible?) for humans to understand but it does certainly exist.
The Economy is made up of rational operators acting in ways that are determined by the incentives they perceive and their personal preferences. They all make choices on how to allocate their time to earn money and how to spend that money once they’ve got it. The rules of The Economy can be tweaked to a limited extent by government, but fundamentally people will just crack on with what they see as best for themselves.
The end result of all the action is that most people get fed and housed and maybe even get a nice holiday now and again. Some people may get really unlucky or just make bad choices and that’s where, in a civilized society, there needs to be a safety net in place to pick them up and look after them until they can get back to a place where they can look after themselves.
You say we can take a break from the game, but I don’t think there is any way to do that. Fundamentally the rules of the game are just a reflection of human nature and I don’t think you can suspend that.

Good news stories

Including one about Australian researchers finding existing drugs that kill CV in tests.

Bill Gates on Reddit IAMA yesterday was interesting. His thoughts:

1). He believe the Chinese numbers and South Korea mirrors them

2). The above is evidence that strict lockdown is effective but no one is sure if there will be waves once it’s lifted (China & SK haven’t seen the follow-on waves some are predicting

3). The Imperial College modelling is using too pessimistic assumptions, real world data is not matching it so far

4). Therapeutics should be a priority now not vaccines. Vaccines take a lot longer to develop and test, they won’t be available in the timeframe needed but will eventually play a part in getting it properly under control

5). Testing is key – not sure he really explained why but I think it’s down to maximising the effectiveness of the lockdown (without also crippling the country for months). Priority should be to test health care workers.

6). Hopefully it will be a wake-up call for governments to take pandemic planning and response measures seriously in future

Lots of other interesting bits of info – nothing that hasn’t already been said by others but just interesting to read rational responses.

Until then “herd immunity” by catching it is what will happen.

Have you been asleep since Friday?

Change that to “may happen” if you want to keep a positive outlook, or even “may never happen” if you want to go full Eeyore.

worth watchiing – the science informing policy. Start from about 5 mins in…

You say we can take a break from the game, but I don’t think there is any way to do that.

Millions (maybe even billions) of people are already taking a break from the game. Just ask an Italian hairdresser how business is going. Suspending the game is already being discussed by both the UK and US governments in the form of suspending mortgage payments and rents, parachuting money, etc.

Much of the medical industry is based on artificially inducing scarcity through Intellectual Property laws and patents. We’re prepared ta accept this and sacrifice a certain number of people at the alter of the Economy but we can choose for this scarcity to not exist any time we want. Hence why the story I linked to seems so jarring in the current situation but we’re prepared to accept people dying for exactly the same reason in normal circumstances.

Shocking.

Whitty suggested that a long-term “exit strategy” from the current coronavirus policy could involve waiting for a vaccine. In response to a question about what the “exit strategy” was that would allow the restrictions currently imposed to be lifted, Whitty said there was a short, medium and long term view. In the short term, the aim was to delay and reduce the peak of the epidemic, he said. In the medium term, he said the aim was to reduce “overshoot” – which he said meant reducing the number of people who would get the virus overall. And in the long term, a vaccine was “one way out of this”, he said. But a vaccine would not happen very quickly, he said. He went on:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/19/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-london-lockdown-williamson-refuses-to-rule-out-government-putting-london-in-lockdown-by-weekend?page=with:block-5e7366928f085e564ad87186#block-5e7366928f085e564ad87186

It’s not too bad at the moment, but being on lockdown … what for the next 18 months? Honestly, it just doesn’t add up to me.