The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

As I said earlier,
At the moment, health of the vulnerable and protecting the nhs is being prioritised over the economy.
Short term they is probably the right thing to do, given we do not know how effective the containment measures will be.
Personally, I feel that if this is continues for significant time, the cost to the economy will prove too great. This may mean that the priority swings back the other way.

Edit: and the latter is probably the balance of priority which the gov were going for when talking about herd immunity at the start of the outbreak

Keep calm and carry on do things differently.

There is no need to panic.

Giving advice about “probable” immunity via exposure, and suggesting that it is only those at risk that have the responsibility to avoid being caught up in the spread, is dangerous though. Time for everyone to help starve this virus of carriers. Don’t just selfishly carry on as normal because you [think you] are a low risk healthy lucky young buck.

In time yes. It took 30 years for the free marketeers to regain control after WWII. This could be bigger.

Not a valid comparison unless Covid19 starts a global bombing campaign against transportation and industrial infrastructure.

There is no need to panic.

This needs repeating.   Its a mid Flu, just in large proportions with a global reaction we all have to bear.    Twitter is now moderating negative content and inappropriate advice to calm the panic, it’d be great if a few people on here thought about others and did the same by moderating their vocabulary – perhaps STW will soon be forced to moderate as a responsible platform anyway.

I thought I suffered from anxiety but go and read the Mental Health thread for a true indication of what this kind of talk is doing to people, its not pleasant, have a thought for others.

My roady club have cancelled the Sunday club runs for the foreseeable future
Beer trading is dead, pubs are doing home delivery of cooked food and a couple of pints to use up stock
Most pubs fo not have any cash reserves at this time of year having run at a loss through jan and feb
Some will last a month or 2, then close up and post the keys through the letter box.
The brewery i work at is having a fire sale, then mothball and maybe close for good. Or, ad we are at break clauss on our lease, take that and downsize to a low cost sbr releif unit elsewhere
Time to get out of the industry probably, will be tricky times for years

Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?

I’m sure I will be seeing kids out playing before the end of the week.

Also the schools staying open for key workers: We had a count up this morning on my daughter’s class’s whatsapp parents group. Out of my daughter’s class of 27, 20 parents are key workers. (Assuming Teachers, NHS workers, shop workers & delivery people are all key workers.) Most of the class will continue to use the school and wraparound care as normal. )

I wonder how many jobs in an economy aren’t essential? Yes there will be yoga teachers and life coaches and sellers of coffee and plastic tat, but most people are selling goods or services that we actually need. I wonder if we’ll discover that many jobs we consider “non-essential” are actually essential. (Telephone engineers/Vets/Electricians.)

Tomorrow is the last day of employment for both me and my partner, having resigned 3 months ago. Nice safe jobs, well paid and a good pension. Due to be flying to Australia for a new job on the 6th of April (a big career opportunity, not a lifestyle decision).

Aus have just closed their border “for at least 6 months”.

Feeling rather vulnerable this morning…

Giving advice about “probable” immunity via exposure, and suggesting that it is only those at risk that have the responsibility to avoid being caught up in the spread, is dangerous though.

Any visiting of my dad’s care home is done with extreme caution, I assure you. I’m simply not that worried about getting it myself, and whilst worried about how my kids will get jobs I’ve zero concerns about their health (great Stevextc that your kid got better a few years ago).

There will be further waves and outbreaks, with more people having at least some degree of immunity each time. Until a vaccine comes along, but that’s over a year away. So herd immunity isn’t a policy (that’s protecting the vulnerable, health care systems and the economy, in that order), but it is what is most likely in the longer term, with or without help from vaccines. Putting all your chips on elimination is not a risk free option.

I’m struggling a bit with some of the overly negative and fearful comments on here which seem to suggest that being incredibly afraid is somehow the only logical conclusion for this set of events.

Whatever way you look at it, being fearful of things way, way beyond your control is illogical. If you genuinely believe this is the most bigly awful terrifying thing ever then it’s worth reflecting on those thoughts and why they’re arising in your consciousness. It certainly won’t be because you’ve arrived at some kind of truth that isn’t available to others.

If you’re right, and we are all utterly screwed then spending the last few months in a state of fear is an odd thing to do. Apply the thought experiment of “Eternal return”. If you were to die in some CV related riots in 6 months time, but your life would endlessly repeat – would you be happy with how you spent this part of your life?

If you’re wrong, well it goes without saying that you’ve harmed yourself and potentially others around you for nothing.

Surely any pub/restaurant/cafe can apply for the £25k GRANT (free money) from govt to pay staff/suppliers?

Its a mid Flu, just in large proportions with a global reaction we all have to bear. Twitter is now moderating negative content and inappropriate advice to calm the panic, it’d be great if a few people on here thought about others and did the same by moderating their vocabulary – perhaps STW will soon be forced to moderate as a responsible platform anyway.

Can we stop calling it a mild flu though? It really isn’t for a large slice of the UK population, and while we don’t need to panic, and be careful what we write, we also need to avoid vocabulary that potentially trivialises it.

I wonder how many jobs in an economy aren’t essential?

I’m a graphic designer. We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be. We settled on ‘an irrelevance of graphic designers’ 😀

Can we stop calling it a mild flu though?

A bit of a sniffle?

A man-cold?

Question for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?

I assume for the former if you can’t breath properly it puts more stress on your heart to pump oxygen which o may not be able to cope with? Why would that be affected by high blood pressure If you are otherwise fit and healthy?

Sorry to hear that cakeandcheese – basically ‘travel’ as we know it is off for the foreseeable future.

We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be.

The Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B

Feel for you cakeandcheese.

This is why temporary protection for households needs to go well beyond just helping companies.

@dantsw13 – That won’t last long to be honest, unless this is jsut a 1 month shut down they will be in trouble even with a grant. Then you have the fact taht a lot of places are seasonal. They will have been expecting to start making moeny at east and then through the summer. If this goes on for 3-4 months that a substantial part of the profit-making time of year

needs adapting, slightly…

Cheers guys – the timing is rather unfortunate!

New boss has told me that they’ll support remote working, but how far that goodwill can stretch is another matter.

Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?

Nope.

I think we’re realistically looking at:

Fast tracking anything that relieves symptoms and can knock down the peak ICU demand.

Mega fast track of vaccine following trials.

The fastest of fast tracking possible for point-of-use test kits.

Reduction of 7 day individual and/or 14 day family quarantines based on an ‘all clear’ from testing.

When / if a vaccine arrives it’ll be back to business as usual. In a massive going-out-on-a-limb speculation, I think widespread availability of test kits would put us pretty close to business as usual.

Right now the big deal is that we don’t 100% know who really has it – unless they are in hospital.

Did anyone else listen to The Moral Maze last night? Estimates given of 50,000 fewer deaths in Wuhan since the outbreak due to the factories closing and the massive reduction in pollution. Even if those figures are out by a factor of 10 more people are alive in Wuhan today than would have been without the virus.

At the end of this we’ve got to take a good hard look at ourselves and just realise how many people are paying for our lifestyles with their lives. Are we any better than those whose lifestyles relied on the slave trade?

Keep calm and carry on do things differently.

There is no need to panic.

Giving advice about “probable” immunity via exposure, and suggesting that it is only those at risk that have the responsibility to avoid being caught up in the spread, is dangerous though. Time for everyone to help starve this virus of carriers. Don’t just selfishly carry on as normal because you [think you] are a low risk healthy lucky young buck.

Precisely.

New boss has told me that they’ll support remote working, but how far that goodwill can stretch is another matter.

From what my brother (lives near Sydney) says Aus is pretty close to lockdown too, which presumably means you won’t be the only worker in the company doing WFH. Not ideal, of course, but a slight silver lining!

I’m a graphic designer. We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be. We settled on ‘an irrelevance of graphic designers’

A Crayolevance?

No the OAPs get first dibs on shopping, do you think they will clear the shelves leaving tins of pineapple chunks in revenge for the cr4p they get at Harvest Festival?

Well you’ll have no chance of getting any Werthers Originals

I’m sure I will be seeing kids out playing before the end of the week.

The chance of transmission if they are not touching each other or things the others have touched in minimal.

John

(great Stevextc that your kid got better a few years ago).

Yep…. but he would have died (several times without being in ICU)

There will be further waves and outbreaks, with more people having at least some degree of immunity each time. Until a vaccine comes along, but that’s over a year away. So herd immunity isn’t a policy (that’s protecting the vulnerable, health care systems and the economy, in that order), but it is what is most likely in the longer term, with or without help from vaccines. Putting all your chips on elimination is not a risk free option.

There are already (if you believe manufacturers) or will be test kits… this in itself will make a HUGE difference if they are rolled out

Spanish Flu burned itself out… and social distancing where it was adopted was effective

A vaccine may be imminent (or not)
tomd

If you’re right, and we are all utterly screwed then spending the last few months in a state of fear is an odd thing to do

Getting enough people to take it seriously is important though.
It’s not a very tough virus and in it’s current form VERY rarely transmitted except through touch.
Washing hands is still a effective barrier… learning not to put them anywhere near your nose/mouth/eyes is probably harder, especially for younger kids.

With current estimates of infection rate it’s a fairly simple thing to ask yourself “how many people touched that before me and since it was disinfected” and then go wash your hands.

From what the WHO have said at least it would be reasonably easy to control if people just washed their hands but to do that they need to realise perhaps that by not doing so someone (maybe not them but someone) will likely die.

Got one of these through the door last night from Lauren who lives in the next street…

Don’t think Lauren was expecting the “friendly phone call” she got.

“Hi, Lauren…..What are you wearing?”

“A face mask”…..click

Fast tracking anything that relieves symptoms and can knock down the peak ICU demand.

Mega fast track of vaccine following trials.

The fastest of fast tracking possible for point-of-use test kits.

There’s no point in accelerating testing or vaccines if it doesn’t work adequately. Most Point of Care tests for Flu (a common thing to get in the US, but not the UK) are <80% accurate. So if they say you are negative you have a 1:5 chance of being positive (and typically not much better for specificity either so 1:5 positives may not be true positives). Serology tests (confirming you have an immune response, and likely immunity) may be a totally different story – but currently there aren’t even lab tests for that available and its not trivial to develop.

Vaccines are a similar story – if you don’t know how effective it is, the modelling for how many people need it to get the degree of immunity you need to relax is educated guesswork at best.

If these treatments being suggested to have some effect are proven so scale up, that has a huge benefit for managing the peak.

Taking it seriously, applying social distancing and washing your hands are possible without being fearful, that’s just applying good practice well within your control. High levels of fear are not a great motivator for sustainable behavioural change. Once you’ve exhausted all practical measures and start using it as a soap box for whatever nihilistic or political outlook you have then that’s going to far.

Action:

Gary Neville has closed his hotels & he will hand them over to the NHS.
Not a single member of staff will face redundancies & all will receive full pay

Outstanding
pic.twitter.com/e286fmiRlI

— Ben (@BenJolly9) March 18, 2020

perchypanther
Member
Got one of these through the door last night from Lauren who lives in the next street…

Don’t think Lauren was expecting the “friendly phone call” she got.

“Hi, Lauren…..What are you wearing?”

“A face mask”…..click

Haha, on a serious note, stuck a note through the neighbours doors last night saying if you need anything, shopping etc picked up, just shout. A lot of old folks in this close. So just checking up.

Didn’t expect the one that did answer though. Woman down stairs, single mum with 2 weans. Has been self isolating with the both of them since the weekend. She’s basically shutting herself off as she’s on drugs that suppress her immune system. Think they are in for the long hall. Said she was in tears getting the note. I don’t think they are getting much contact at all.

Hopefully she will reach out for help if she needs it going forward. Said she might well.

But does just show you you don’t really know what’s happening around you. So defo keep an eye on folks. A wee note could do the world to people’s spirits.

We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be.

The Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B

You tell me what colour the face masks should be then!

I’m currently enjoying all the radio ads for hotels events etc that are completely pointless and out of context now

Most Point of Care tests for Flu (a common thing to get in the US, but not the UK) are <80% accurate.

Granted. But. It’s a lot better than “not having a clue” surely?

Fast tracking anything that relieves symptoms and can knock down the peak ICU demand.

Doing this…

Nicely done seosamh77 !

Every day hero.

I did the elderly neighbours, but you’re right, there will be all sorts of cases of households without elderly people that could use a friendly offer of help.

Remember everyone. There is no need to panic. Keep calm. But there is every need to change how we act. Don’t just ‘carry on’ as usual. Offer any help you can. Keep a safe distance (for the sake of others, not yourself).

/Start Rant

Eldest sister, was at Centre Parcs Sherwood this weekend gone. Ostensibly mixing with some 4,000 strangers from all over the UK in what is effectively a large greenhouse, for four days, in the middle of a global pandemic of a contagious virus particularly dangerous to the over 70s.

She comes home Monday, visits 90yo Dad (who is on warfarin/stroke recovery/booked for biopsy for skin “lesion”, possibly cancer, on the 26th March) that day and she’s now in bed with “symptoms” as of Tuesday.

Two confirmed cases from the same weekend at that CP.

Have told my Dad to shout if he feels at all unwell.

I’m at a loss with WTAF she was thinking. The mind truly boggles if she/people like her can’t see the risk. As a minimum, you’d wait till the weekend to see if anything came to be before visiting him.

/End rant

Couldn’t sensible precautions just be summarised, as with so many things in life, with the same instruction?

…

Don’t be a dick