The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

Sounds a bit like the Event 201 Coronavirus Pandemic Simulation from October last year…

There’s all kinds of conspiraloons kicking off about it on twitter, but then again, there’s always folk spouting nonsense for attention!!

On 18th October 2019,

‘Event 201’ was hosted with the intention to simulate a ‘scientifically plausible’ pandemic outbreak to prepare for any ‘Economic consequences’ that may occur if such case were to happen.

“The scenario ends at the 18th month point, with 65 million deaths.” pic.twitter.com/2gJBaaBxzK

— •|reb0rn13⚜️ (@reb0rn13) January 26, 2020

Who are major stakeholders in the Pirbright Institute?

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organizationhttps://t.co/eKd5RUiGRY

— ItsTommyDee (@ItsTommyDee1) January 25, 2020

I don’t know if people are overreacting to the threat of the #coronavirus or not. But, People are definitely not reacting enough to the threat of a Great Depression if we shut down the economy and the dangers of living under a legit fascist state if we accept martial law.

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) March 18, 2020

Just passed spoons on way home from work, it’s as busy as ever.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

So basically just do what everyone else is doing right?

No. What scaredypants said and also…

It’s clear that the government were using outdated models and operating from a pandemic guide that was three years old designed for a flu outbreak. The relevant wider British scientific field had not been consulted properly, they had not been approached to verify the accuracy of the initial models that were being used and we had not engaged foreign scientists and their work with the rigor that was needed.

In short, as scaredypants stated, arrogance and hubris.

Sorry, capitalism says no.

I’m not sure capitalism exists right now, who knows if it will after?

I’m not sure capitalism exists right now, who knows if it will after?

I’m pretty sure it does and in its purest most unbridled form. Are the measures being put in place to ensure the minimum loss of life or the minimum economic loss?

So there’s 4 confirmed case in Northumberland.

Is the panic and anger at the government down to the fact that people just can’t cope with uncertainty

No, I think it’s more down to shit planning and lack of a clear direction in time of crisis.

or the minimum economic loss?

if you take away demand there is no market. No market, no capitalism. The losses were inevitable once they calculated that sacrificing 5% of the population would probably create mass social disorder (which it would have). The question is whether free market ideologues have the will and the skill to run a command economy. That’s where the risk of collapse is. It’s why we probably need a unity govt.

The government will do whatever it needs to do to protect the existing capitalist system. After all it is in hock to it.

They’ll try, yes. Will they succeed though?

Probably.

Probably

In time yes. It took 30 years for the free marketeers to regain control after WWII. This could be bigger.

This thread has definitely disappeared down the rabbit hole.
One for Drac – in the store cupboard….an Alnwick Rum christmas pudding, home made in Alnwick.
I don’t mean the pudding is for him/her….

One of Sarah’s they’re delicious.

Good to know Drac; excellent choice on my part!

Frank what do you mean by going down the rabbit hole? There are changes occurring in the economy, society, and politics of a magnitude, speed and scale across the world that have never occurred before. When the politicians and media use the word ‘unprecedented’ they’re not making it up.

Interesting the Archbishop of Canterbury tonight likened what’s happening in the UK to a nuclear bomb going off. He’s probably about right, and it’s happening all over the world. We children of the Cold War might have been worrying about the wrong thing.

London:

It is absolutely stark staring bonkers TfL is announcing tube station closures from tomorrow by press release after 11pm. What happens to early shift workers? Many work in pretty essential services. A bit of notice might have been handy, so they could replan commutes.

— James Ball (@jamesrbuk) March 18, 2020

TfL are giving the same standard response to all queries on twitter:

Hi Ashni, thanks for the message. Due to operational restriction we may have to close some stations tomorrow. We will publish a list of the stations affected as soon as we know it. Thanks, Nikolin

— Transport for London (@TfL) March 19, 2020

Daz – the endless speculation, increasing signs of paranoia, uninformed comment on this thread make quite a melange and it’s one that I’m opting out of.
There appear to be a couple of posters with some scientific knowledge but other than that – what is there other than what I referred to in my first sentence?
I don’t disagree about the changes we’re experiencing but it’s far from clear these will be permanent.
We (however you choose to define that) have experienced ‘unprecedented’ events in the past and, as the shake-out proceeds, find that the new world is not dissimilar to the old one.
This could be different; who knows?
In the morning I will be contacting my local council to discuss setting up a community support group with a focus on the elderly and others who may be self-isolating.
My children are now adults leading their own lives but if they were still dependants I would be talking with them rationally and responsibly, basing my comments on established facts and not speculating.
Globally, the risk of a viral pandemic has been long acknowledged, war-gamed and then ignored by politicos. The most recent example was during the transition from Obama to trump; will post link when I can – then I’m out.
The science has always been there – not fully developed – but the wilful dismissal of ‘experts’ by politicos is unforgivable.
When this passes, as it will, do you think there will be a significant increase in NHS funding or change in how it’s managed?
I would like to think so but doubt it.
One last thing to add, the ECB have announced plans to buy EUR750 bn of corporate bonds to support the euro; UK’s efforts so far are looking thin compared to that and the US (trump notwithstanding).

Kind of agree Frank, although a couple of economic commentators have made the point that even during the war, SME’s suffered less potential disruption than this could cause. The economy did not go into hibernation like it appears to be doing now.

I suspect the shock is going to be as big as the great depression, we’re still in a period of uncertainty and look at how far the markets have tanked already – it’s not my area though – but even my wife and her employer is unsure (wealth management)! They don’t have much public health/biosciences understanding, I don’t have much knowledge on that area apart from what I glean from my wife when she’s not got her head buried in graphs on her monitors. Maybe there’s a gap in the market for me and the missus lol.

That’s the crux of it, very few people have the expertise to parse this event together in a holistic fashion – hence the massive uncertainty and volatility.

No, but until they know what’s expected of them, they can’t make any decent plans. Other than “closing on Friday”, there isn’t much else they can make plans around.

Well there is. Potential school could be closed temporary for something like a fire. They’d need contingency plans for events such as these, adapting these plans to fit in with a closure due to virus shouldn’t be difficult. As I say my kids school has been planning for 2 weeks for a possible closure.

Drac, schools have been planning to teach kids at home, not teaching kids at home whilst also looking after kids in school, big difference.

No, they’ve also planned for partial closure too to look after essential workers if staff numbers dropped. I’m not sure how people couldn’t see this coming especially when it’s been asked when it would happen by the public.

Anyway my earlier post should have read a big thank you to AA and his teacher colleagues for allowing to look essential workers kids. I shouldn’t type while walking I’m bad enough sat in the house.

the endless speculation, increasing signs of paranoia, uninformed comment on this thread

Well I’d say speculation and paranoia (although I’d say fear is a more appropriate description) are natural reactions give the craziness of it all. For me the release valve is in talking about it. For others it might be ignoring It, but some of us can’t do that.

As for being uninformed, what are we supposed to do? Just swallow whatever Boris tells us unquestioningly when we can see what’s happening  elsewhere?

A week ago we were told letting it spread was the right way to go and that lockdowns, school closures     and the rest of it was weeks away and anyone saying otherwise was spreading fear and being hysterical.

And that wouldn’t be a problem other than the fact that this viewpoint is currently resulting in many people carrying on as normal as if they’re already immune to it and endangering everyone else.

it’s not paranoia, it’s fear and worry, and as far as I can see it’s entirely justified.

They don’t have much public health/biosciences understanding, I don’t have much knowledge on that area apart from what I glean from my wife when she’s not got her head buried in graphs on her monitors. Maybe there’s a gap in the market for me and the missus lol.

Should have read “her area” – I know a little about biology. **** it, I’m off to bed now – busy day for me tomorrow.

Anyway my earlier post should have read a big thank you to AA and his teacher colleagues for allowing to look essential workers kids.

+1

Teachers are awesome and have unexpectedly found themselves on the front line of this.

Stay safe/sane yourself Drac, you’re doing a valuable job.

For some laughs.

People think you’re up their with the ghostbusters now Drac 😛

Although I hope you don’t take selfies whilst driving.

Hahaha! That’s ace.

I have of course have never done anything like that. 😗

Back on topic, the Chinese had no domestic new cases yesterday (and I believe them). Proof that shutting down can work if done properly and that it’s the quickest way to get an economy back on the rails. I just hope they don’t start mixing again too soon and remain vilgilant.

Yeah just saw that, good news.

for the first time since the beginning of the outbreak, there have been 0 new cases in Wuhan and in the Hubei province, and no new and no existing suspected cases in Wuhan and in Hubei.

Proof that shutting down can work if done properly and that it’s the quickest way

Based on the Chinese….we will be back ready to enter that world for all that by end of June.

~ 4 months since the first reported cases.

Good new’s with the China stats – haven’t looked at the news yet but since it’s relatively quiet on here nothing much is up.

That’s me clocking on in the rabbit hole – have a good day folks.

the quickest way to get an economy back on the rails

You clearly haven’t been looking at the Chinese economic numbers. They are grim. And when they lift the lock down to restart production, the virus will reappear.

Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months? For example, schools may have closed early for Easter and remain closed until after the Summer break but they’ll surely re-open in August regardless of the containment situation. Other industries, like farming, food production, utilities will have to operate.

It is not the end of capitalism but it may may people think a bit more abut globalisation

Once this is all over in 2 years time the ongoing impact will be to the poorer in society as out will come the austerity word again and we know who that impacts and the line will be the same “it wasn’t our fault that we had to spend money on Covid19 but we now have to go through 10 years of austerity to pay for it”

Chill. This epidemic is most likely all over in 6-8 months. Yes there are economic consequences, but these are secondary to the nation’s health.

We can either do this by minimising the death rate and doing our bit to contribute to the overall management of the peak and rate of the epidemic….

Or we can be irresponsible and contribute to a massive death toll including our parents and friends with underlying health issues.

Important you decide if you are in
– a LOW risk household or
-a HIGH risk household

Never the twain should meet for the foreseeable.

Low risk households should have minimal health concerns. Yes you will get a flu-like illness, but you should be ok. Just follow the advice on social distancing etc to help manage the rate of infection. Once you’ve had it, normality will largely resume. Don’t do online food shops in order to allow the high risk households access to delivery slots. Avoid close contact with your elderly relatives. But make doorstep deliveries for them. Be sensible.

High risk households need to accept that if you want to increase your chances of survival, you have to withdraw and hibernate for as long as needed. Let it pass by in the outside world. It’s going to be a long haul. Do online shops, keep delivery drivers 2m away. No visitors. Stick a warning note on your door.

And everyone wash their hands.

Good luck.

Proof that shutting down can work if done properly and that it’s the quickest way to get an economy back on the rails. I just hope they don’t start mixing again too soon and remain vilgilant.

They waited 6 weeks from the first reported domestic case until they stared closures.

Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?

No, they really can’t.

I can see in a few weeks folk not adhering to it as strictly as they struggle to deal with isolation. The temptation to meet up when family or friends will be great – see that crappy Hunted TV show where folk can’t go without seeing mum or the dog for a fortnight.

Once this is all over in 2 years time the ongoing impact will be to the poorer in society as out will come the austerity word again and we know who that impacts and the line will be the same “it wasn’t our fault that we had to spend money on Covid19 but we now have to go through 10 years of austerity to pay for it”

I was thinking about this. As this is bigger and there has been very real damage to the jobs/businesses that keep the economy afloat I don’t think that it will be possible to push austerity as the answer. In the short term at least I think there might need to be some stimulus. Borrowing and building feels more likely to create jobs and kick the economy up the arse and generate money and jobs.

But yes, it will be the poor who didn’t have a safety buffer who struggle.

Well, I’ve been asked to put my annual goals and personal development plan together by next Friday, and in true pyramid fashion have been passed my managers sickenly grovelling to the boss version to align them with.

What goals for a travelling salesman during a mild Flu pandemic?

Dark humour aside, I’m shaking my head at the thought someone above me is still pushing for numbers with no apparent regard or sympathetic communication to the economic changes we are experiencing

And when they lift the lock down to restart production, the virus will reappear.

China are going to be all over any new cases like a tramp on chips. They do have prior and somewhat recent experience, with SARS, which they kept a lid on since the initial flair up, with a few isolated cases being found. In short, they know how to do a pandemic response.

Rest of world, crikey, when did we last see something like this, Spanish Flu in 1918?

scotroutes
Member
Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?

A few months? People will be tearing their hair out after a few weeks. Look at the hysteria over mentioning immunity last week. Just wait till the general public latches on the the fascism patter starting to rear it’s head….

I also find it amazing the amount of people that are saying aye the economy can be fixed later on. Ermm do you not realise that economic collapse will make this a million times worse. You can’t fix that, Those consequences will be very very real.

What the world is doing just now is entirely unsustainable. We can’t stay in lockdown for very long.

Protecting the old and it sweeping over the population is really the only thing that can and will happen long term. If that can somehow be managed to protect the vulnerable, great, fingers crossed.

There’s no vaccine coming in time. Certainly not over this first massive wave of the virus.

Least we’ve half a chance mind. The thought of what this will do in Africa and South America is terrifying. We’re going to need a more global response to this.

Loving reading the conspiracy theories.

Please keep them coming.

In other news, my hairdresser is still open so I’m off for a hair cut later. My sailing club building is shut and all club and open meetings cancelled until the end of March (I suspect that will be extended to end of April) but the changing are open including showers… so I’m glad about getting our normally manic club back to ourselves.

#bitofflu

#madpanicensues

There are changes occurring in the economy, society, and politics of a magnitude, speed and scale across the world that have never occurred before.

Well… Yes and no. But we’re British. Nowt will change. Some people will die. Most of us won’t. This will pass. Then we’ll simply go back to jetting off to Spain on our hols, sitting in nose to tail traffic to drive to the office, going out and getting pissed at the local and having fights outside the kebab house, while buying Asparagus flown in from Kenya and eating bacon butties from intensively reared Danish porkers.

As a nation we shall collectively never speak of this again and will tut and roll our eyes should anyone be crass enough to mention it.

… until next time

Sorry Daz. Thats the reality 😉

For anyone thinking we can go back to normal. The banking crisis was about avoiding a collapse of the economy. In this case, the collapse feared 10 years ago has already happened. Scary stuff.

What unites the UK government's faltering response on the virus and the economic shock? Reluctance to use the state. I understand this but a generation of free market technocrats need to learn to get over it… https://t.co/aLwkgZXppT

— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) March 19, 2020