The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

Just passed spoons on way home from work, it’s as busy as ever.

Jesus wept.

data here has been updated with some new graphs

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

Right.

For AA and all his colleagues who volunteer or need to continue to work so myself and others can support those who need us. If you choose not to for yourself or family then I completely understand. As nation we all need to do what we can to look after ourselves, our family and the nation.

It’s going to get difficult, it will test us all but we will fight on.

Right I’m nearly at work about to inundated with today’s guidelines.

Just passed spoons on way home from work, it’s as busy as ever.

Jesus wept.

Seems to be a theme. Girl at work’s husband was walking through Leicester city centre earlier. Pretty much deserted except for Spoons which was rammed full.

Looks like the ‘determined to be Brexity bellends’ contingent are determined to be bellends. If I lose my job I will be volunteering as a police auxiliary (even if it isn’t a thing) and getting ready to go in, rubber bullets and CS gas first, questions (in words of one syllable) later.

Isn’t your wife diabetic?

She is – but she is massively more likely to get it from work than from me going to the pub.

Can you explain why you think the advice doesn’t apply to you?

Well arguably, advice that applies in London, where we have hundreds of confirmed cases and over 9 million people packed into a very densely populated city, makes slightly less sense in a sleepy village in rural Northumberland when there are zero confirmed cases across the entire county.

But mostly I’m just interested in the responses here, as my drinking buddies include GPs, consultants, and NHS management who still appear to be keen for a pint tomorrow!😲

For 2 weeks the high school here have been planning for this, homework packs, online access and websites to use. Any half decent school will have been doing the same. They don’t have to wait until the day before the schools close to plan this.

No, but until they know what’s expected of them, they can’t make any decent plans. Other than “closing on Friday”, there isn’t much else they can make plans around. Will there be exams? When are the kids coming back? Will some of them need to be in? Still nack-all planning they can do.

My analyses looks a bit like the FT rebasing of the epidemic plot and I’ve been providing them since Sunday and I update them daily from the ECDC. Sadly the UK deaths have accelearted outside of my prediction interval (100 deaths by Wednesday was a threshold), based on other countries at a similar point in the epidemic. Cases are doubling at the same rate as previously.

The exponential growth is due to unrestricted supply of susceptibles, and the past deviations in China and South Korea are not due to herd immunity (fewer susceptibles), but contact restriction. Closing down contacts is the correct decision. Closing the schools is the same correct decision.

The thing about populations is that, given the right data, they are reasonably predictable. And when ALL reasonable predictions predict bad, you MUST act.

spreading faster than expected

2 points there,

my son’s yr 2 class, 1/3rd are off today , paranoia, cold or covid?

Which brings me to my 2nd point , we don’t know because we’re not testing

We can’t model or track the spread if we don’t have accurate sampling data, only testing those bad enough to present in hospital only gives a tiny snapshot of what’s going on.

And it’s obvious to all that we don’t have the resources & possibly enough kits & testing labs set up.

It’s the reason the containment phase collapsed so quickly

Of course no minister is going to admit we are so unprepared & under resourced

Instead it’s ‘spreading faster than expected’

Of course it is!, you’ve no idea what to expect because you’re not testing & leaving it until now to close schools with so little data is a massive gamble. (If kids are more likely to be asymptomatic the true extent of spread could be much much bigger than realised)

As a scientists I’m very upset that the scientific advice seems to have been so off- or certainly what the advisors & Johnson were saying at the pressers

Going back to trump’s presser – yes, he was atrocious as usual but compare’n’contrast what the US are doing to support workers and the economy with UK’s actions to date.
johnson and his crew need to up their game massively to shore up the economy.
I’m not ignoring the healthcare side of this – I’m very interested and concerned in that but it’s outside my area of knowledge

Schools close on Friday indefinitely.

Let’s think about the ramifications of that for a minute.

Gov announced help for rent-payers, though I missed the details as I was out delivering milk and Weetabix to mum and g/f thanks to today’s round of shopping zombies strip-mining everything in a ten-mile radius.

Would you have gone to the pub 3 weeks ago in London?

At eight quid a pint, would I **** as like.

For AA and all his colleagues who volunteer or need to continue to work so myself and others can support those who need us. If you choose not to for yourself or family then I completely understand.

Not sure it’ll be voluntary!! Also not sure how it will work, for me as a secondary school teacher I would expect most kids should be able to look after themselves, its the vulnerable kids, the abused kids and the neglected kids that I worry for but would they even come into school……worrying times.

I’ll happily staff a school library or whatever for those kids that need looking after!

Going back to trump’s presser – yes, he was atrocious as usual

“Try to stay apart. Social distancing they call it. No more than 10 people in a room.”

“Believe me, no one knows more about Covfefe virus than me. Bigly.” 🤦🏻‍♂

What confidence?

They missed the word ‘trick’ off of the end.

Just had a letter from the local school trust.

Further to the communication from central government this evening, the [trust] would like to be in a position to offer what is being
required of schools, i.e. partial opening to key workers’ children and vulnerable
children. However, we do not yet know exactly what is being required/ offered. We
just wanted to let you know that – we will be getting together and drawing up a plan
that we can communicate to you all.

We will start planning for this tomorrow and will be in touch to find out what the need
is like in our school community so please check your emails especially if you are in
one of the key worker groups (we don’t as yet have clarity on who that is).

So yes, it does sound like Boris has announced this provision without actually consulting the school trusts that will need to deliver it or having the information ready to give them.

Let’s think about the ramifications of that for a minute.

I’ll be thinking about the ramifications of that for the next six months

I

could

have a job on tomorrow.

Mate that I’m working with needs the money more than I do, but can’t do it alone. Not saying I don’t want the money, but….

Not 100% keen given Merkel was just on telling everyone to avoid social contact and unnecessary movement. However, she didn’t say don’t do anything specific…..

Isn’t it the same in Germany as most places – travel to/from and doing work is ok?
RM.

Yes, which is kinda contradictory to the avoiding social contac, unnecessary movement and stay at home.

I could work, I don’t need to….

So yes, it does sound like Boris has announced this provision without actually consulting the school trusts that will need to deliver it or having the information ready to give them.

I think the point the school is making is that it doesn’t know who the key workers are – and why would they? And until they know then they don’t know how many kids they need to school.

Instead it’s ‘spreading faster than expected’

Actually it isn’t. It is spreading at the same rate as it has in almost every other country. It is however spreading faster than desirable, because deaths follow cases (at approximately 1%) and the death rate will be what swamps medical resources.

Can anyone remember when Italy imposed the stricter measures, school closures etc.

I was getting optimistic that the new cases had levelled off the last 4 days, but another jump today, so maybe they were just hitting the limit of the daily tests and have increased capacity.

Well arguably, advice that applies in London, where we have hundreds of confirmed cases and over 9 million people packed into a very densely populated city, makes slightly less sense in a sleepy village in rural Northumberland when there are zero confirmed cases across the entire county.

But mostly I’m just interested in the responses here, as my drinking buddies include GPs, consultants, and NHS management who still appear to be keen for a pint tomorrow!😲

A lot of my friends are doctors and some of them are also acting like entitled bellends…
According to your logic then the virus is never going to spread to Northumberland as there aren’t any confirmed cases there. Aside from that we know that they aren’t systematically testing the entire population & they have stopped testing except for hostpital admissions. We also know that the virus can transmit asymptomatically & we also know that a lot of the symptoms are similar to other common viruses… Given all that how do you know that the virus isn’t in your village? ( & health professionals are far more likely than others to be exposed to it.)
But beyond all that..It’s about setting the standard of what is acceptable behaviour. The virus has spread around the world at an exponential rate. The only way to contain it is to limit social contact, and yet there are apparently loads of people (many of whom should definitely know better) who seem to think that the restrictions don’t apply to them for whatever reason they happen to think up. That is the attitude which will ultimately kill people in their thousands. We are all in this together and if we don’t all act together the consequences will be horrific… but you go ahead and enjoy your pint.

In other news, good friends of ours are moving to Aberdeen and have a leaving do booked for Saturday night.

They’ve decided that it would be safer for everyone to group Skype and get the beers in from the local off license of their choice. We have to rewrite the usual social etiquette over the next few months, but it need not mean that people aren’t connected.

I’ve also volunteered for our community support group so that those who are self-isolating have access to grocery deliveries and whatever goods they need from local shops.

I felt the need to share a little positivity, if we cooperate and work together we might make life more bearable.

Is anyone else slightly terrified the whole economic system is going to collapse? According to the report I read, it states that the current measures will have to be used repeatedly for the next 12-18 months – until a vaccine is developed and rolled out. Sorry, capitalism says no.

I was getting optimistic that the new cases had levelled off the last 4 days, but another jump today, so maybe they were just hitting the limit of the daily tests and have increased capacity.

Hard to know, there’s a latency period between contracting & showing symptoms, plus developing serious complications could take longer, then we don’t know if they’ve been struggling in ITU for 2 weeks

Was in lincoln waitrose earlier; easier to list what they did have than what they didn’t.
Some expensive soaps left; one of them described as ‘scandinavian inspired’ but made in China.
Bailgate area is usually busy every evening but….plenty of parking, bars open but few customers and they weren’t social distancing.
Even the ‘spoons at the dog end of town was pretty empty.

Instead it’s ‘spreading faster than expected’

Actually it isn’t. It is spreading at the same rate as it has in almost every other country. It is however spreading faster than desirable, because deaths follow cases (at approximately 1%) and the death rate will be what swamps medical resources

I think the trouble is that it’s going faster than the uk’s model expected, or at least than they admitted they were expecting – either one of those tends to destroy one’s faith in the establishment, doesn’t it ?

Still looking on the bright side at least I’m no longer a randy 18 year old desperate to pull, it going to be slim pickings for quite some time! All I had to worry about in the late 80’s early 90’s was AIDS and a condom sorted that!

either one of those tends to destroy one’s faith in the establishment, doesn’t it ?

Not in the least. You cannot expect scientists to predict how a brand new disease will behave. The question is, how do they respond? And like many things, you won’t know what would have happened if we’d done nothing, and you don’t have other outbreaks of the same disease to compare against so scientists could have done a brilliant job and you’d never know. So if you assume they’re shit without really being able to tell, it’s more about your attidue than their performance.

But mostly I’m just interested in the responses here, as my drinking buddies include GPs, consultants, and NHS management who still appear to be keen for a pint tomorrow!

A doctor in Wisconsin tested positive and they are now testing 200 patients and other staff, including severely immunocompromised children.

Still looking on the bright side at least I’m no longer a randy 18 year old desperate to pull, it going to be slim pickings for quite some time! All I had to worry about in the late 80’s early 90’s was AIDS and a condom sorted that!

As a singleton I’m thinking there could be a dearth of any action for quite some time! I have a lady who is keen to come round on Friday, but she’s frontline nhs and I’m not going to lie, I’m not sure I want her infiltrating my nice secure bunker with her germs..

either one of those tends to destroy one’s faith in the establishment, doesn’t it ?

Not really. Nothing in this world is simple, clear cut, black and white – let alone planning to deal with an unknown pandemic.

Is the panic and anger at the government down to the fact that people just can’t cope with uncertainty

Not in the least. You cannot expect scientists to predict how a brand new disease will behave. The question is, how do they respond?

Yes, but you can expect them to listen to the wider scientific community as opposed to a listening to handful of homegrown experts whilst ignoring other uk based experts and the rest of the worlds. With sniveling **** wits like Steven Barclay claiming that they are working with the best possible science, shutting down critics and then backtracking.

There are plenty of younger scientists who’d be doing a better job than dinosaurs like Vallance and Whitty as well.

The criticism of the governments statement that it’s spreading faster than they expected is entirely valid, they have stated that it is, yet the rate is only as fast as other European countries. That is farcical. Nothing more, nothing less.

I’m not sure I want her infiltrating my nice secure bunker with her germs..

make her wear a condom?

I have a friend currently living in Panama, & he’s just sent this:

We understand that many of you live abroad and may be anxious to know about the situation on the ground here in Panama with regard to the COVID-19 virus (“Coronavirus”). Fortunately, the number of cases in Panama remains relatively low, with only 55 recorded cases and one fatality since the first incident was confirmed on March 9. Regardless, the Panamanian government has been implementing very strict measures to prevent the spread of the virus:
* Flights originating from Europe and Asia are now prohibited from landing in Panama.
* Passengers on cruise ships that have visited high-risk areas are prohibited from disembarking in Panamanian ports.
* Only Panamanian nationals and foreigners with permanent residency in Panama are permitted to enter the country, and they are required to go into home quarantine for 14 days immediately upon their arrival (effective March 16).
* All citizens have been instructed to remain at home as much as possible during these first few critical weeks (self-isolation). In addition, they are asked to avoid unnecessary travel, especially to the interior of the country. (To date, the virus has largely been contained in the Greater Panama City area, with only six cases reported in the interior.)
* Employers have been asked to enable tele-working options for as many employees as possible, and to stagger work hours for those who must come into the office to reduce the number of travelers on public transit during peak hours.
* Funds have been released for the immediate purchase and additional medical equipment (mechanical ventilators, monitors and intensive care beds) that would be required should the country see a dramatic increase in cases that require hospitalization. Intensive care wards have also been expanded throughout the country’s public hospitals.
* The Gorgas Hospital laboratory has sufficient test kits to keep up with the current demand. However, 24,000 additional test kits are on order, and some will be distributed to private hospitals to ease the possible burden on public facilities should the disease progress.
* Strict fines have been put in place through the Consumer Protection Agency to prohibit price gouging by local merchants. Additionally, merchants have been instructed to restrict the number of essential cleaning and personal hygiene items (hand sanitizer, bleach, alcohol, toilet paper) for sale to an individual to ensure a steady supply for the general population.
* Special financing will be made available to small businesses who require assistance in overcoming the challenges they will undoubtedly face while the country confronts this situation.
* Fairs, conventions, cultural events, religious gatherings, concerts and sporting events have been banned throughout the entire country.
* Access to beaches, rivers and public swimming pools has been banned.
* Bars, discotheques, night clubs, casinos, theatres, cinemas are prohibited from operating.
* Indoor and outdoor playgrounds, gyms, sports fields and courts have been shut down.
* Restaurants may continue to operate but can only offer take-out and delivery options. In-salon dining is prohibited.
* All public and private gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited, with strict fines imposed on those who violate this sanction.
* Regular public education campaigns are being transmitted through the local media and through the cellular telephone network by the Ministry of Health (MINSA) and the National Disaster Response Unit (SINAPROC) as new regulations are issued by the government.

As a singleton I’m thinking there could be a dearth of any action for quite some time! I have a lady who is keen to come round on Friday, but she’s frontline nhs and I’m not going to lie, I’m not sure I want her infiltrating my nice secure bunker with her germs..

Looks at it this way. If either of you start coughing during the evening you’ll then have a full two weeks to work on her…

Can’t be too careful.

Nevermind all this coronavirus jibba Jabba, I want to know if tpniker is ‘on for one’. Take the above advice and please tell us how it goes <insert meme of Vic reeves rubbing his thighs>

Yes, but you can expect them to listen to the wider scientific community as opposed to a listening to handful of homegrown experts whilst ignoring other uk based experts and the rest of the worlds.

So basically just do what everyone else is doing right?

Not in the least. You cannot expect scientists to predict how a brand new disease will behave. The question is, how do they respond? And like many things, you won’t know what would have happened if we’d done nothing, and you don’t have other outbreaks of the same disease to compare against so scientists could have done a brilliant job and you’d never know. So if you assume they’re shit without really being able to tell, it’s more about your attidue than their performance.

Well, there was a number of countries where it started in advance of ours; perhaps look there to see what transpires.
Don’t fancy that ? OK, get the views of some respected scientists & epidemiologists (tick), crunch some numbers (tick, I assume) and then publish your workings at least amongst the relevant scientific community (X)

The approach of the government (not strictly that of the CMO and CSA, though they were pretty much “in the room” all the time), has smacked of a combination of hubris and condescension, mixed with insufficient planning / preparation. If not these then utterly shitty communication.

Poor, could should do better

I just came across this documentary from 2018 – an experiment carried out on spread of a flu like pandemic. Well worth watching if only for Dr Hannah Fry.

Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic