Ukraine

Dead man walking

This is extraordinary. Rtd General-Colonel Leonid Ivashov, 78, well-known hardliner, now chairman of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly, publishes an appeal to the Russian President & citizens not to start any meaningless war in Ukraine & condemns the annexation of Crimea. https://t.co/IofG4zwOTi

— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) February 6, 2022

Hopefully he doesn’t “accidentally” fall out of a window like Maskin Borodin did after criticism of the regime.

I’ll bet you lot were cheering the house over weapons of mass destruction lies and wanting an invasion of whomever to take place soon as possible. From whats been said thus far, any dissenting voices expressing concern would have been descended upon.

Personally I think all involved in the dodgy dossier should have been up on charges of Treason ( or whatever the most appropriate significant charge is)
It’s the biggest decision you can take to commit UK lives to inflict extreme violence on another country. You don’t do it on a web of deceit. There needed to be consequences to ensure it doesn’t happen again.

As for Belarus, it’s hardly a normal functioning state, the influx of Russian troops is clearly to bolster the dictatorship, Russia has to be willing to deploy troops to keep these dodgy regimes in place.

The Belarus statement is confusing, it’s with Russian support it continues to exist.

I also can’t see anyone here indicating they want western military intervention, or even cheering a conflict on. Have I missed a few pages of “gosh I hope it kicks off”?

Defending Squirrelking ?. Im not defending anyone. Im saying playing such games are a danger to everyone. It is you who appears to be defending the rights of these countries to threaten the security of another and drive them into games of brinkmanship.

This is how Russia sees it. Wouldn’t it be prudent to take note of those concerns and perhaps pull back.

It’s Russia playing the games though, it’s been explained how NATO expansion works a few times so I’m not going to rehash this argument, suffice to say Putin is the one rattling sabres.

But yet again the STW mob is attacking the individual for daring to question the narrative.

I’d say it’s more stubbornness on your part to see things from the other side. Of course you could use the argument that Russia are defending themselves but where that falls apart is that they acted first. By all means question the narrative but you have to bring facts to the table, even better if they have sources.

I’ll bet you lot were cheering the house over weapons of mass destruction lies and wanting an invasion of whomever to take place soon as possible. From whats been said thus far, any dissenting voices expressing concern would have been descended upon.

You couldn’t be more wrong about that actually. Personally speaking of course.

I’ll bet you lot were cheering the house over weapons of mass destruction lies and wanting an invasion of whomever to take place soon as possible. From whats been said thus far, any dissenting voices expressing concern would have been descended upon.

You couldn’t be more wrong about that actually. Personally speaking of course.

He’s just frustrated because people keep pointing out how ridiculous his comments are. I doubt that he actually believes that we are all warmongering nutters, he’s just lashing out with insults because he has nothing else to use.

Have I missed a few pages of “gosh I hope it kicks off”?

Only in the imagination of a few

A significant conflict with Russia is the last thing anyone wants, at the same time a democratic state falling to an invasion by a kleptocracy isn’t what anyone outside a small Putincentric group want

So we have the fudges we have now, in effect there is a shadow war going on with each side flexing it’s response and young Ukrainians still dying at the points of contact

NATO has it’s faults, US foreign and military policy has to be in part countered by Western diplomatic pressure. But when the Russians or Chinese start preparing for a land grab then everyone wants to be their friend.

He’s just frustrated because people keep pointing out how ridiculous his comments are. I doubt that he actually believes that we are all warmongering nutters, he’s just lashing out with insults because he has nothing else to use.

The internet is a terrible place to have a discussion, I personally let it wash over me. He is right on some points NATO isn’t perfect, US and UK have done things they shouldn’t have for dubious reasons.

Where the issues centre around Ukraine then the context shifts, a deployment of a third of the strength and probably 2/3 of the fighting capability of Russia in the area on a offensive footing isn’t a defensive act. The precursor activities are not a defensive act. The NATO baddddd argument doesn’t correlate with what is happening. If NATO didn’t exist I doubt the Baltic States would exist in their current democratic form etc

NEWS: Russian media claims that Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun a ‘massive’ artillery bombardment of separatist Donetsk

Unclear if this is actually true or not but this type of real or fake action could be the pretext RU needs for an invasionhttps://t.co/2sIV8wtY54

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) February 6, 2022

I’ve been convinced since mid December that the RU invasion of UKR is very likely. But I recognize that a lot of people disagree (not least of all, many in UKR government — at least publicly)

It is always good to reevaluate your assumptions so let’s red team the alternatives ?

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) February 10, 2022

Yep, the whole thing is super weird. Is it normal to amass this many troops and then…..just sit there? For weeks? Is it a bit like the phoney war in WW2?

The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin’s a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!

Putin has: Attacked Georgia, purposefully bombed Syrian civilians, annexed Crimea at gunpoint, destabilised Donbas, let’s not forget MH17, all the cyber attacks, and the fact that 100% of non NATO Russian bordered states have Russian troops in them…And the US, EU and NATO are being aggressive?

The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin’s a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!

Posted 1 hour ago

Or because Xi has asked him to?
Also, let’s the ground dry out a bit and get a bit more tank-friendly.
China won’t be imposing any sanctions, and if a big as a player as that doesn’t how much effect can ours really have?

Also, let’s the ground dry out a bit and get a bit more tank-friendly.

Spring is a few months away yet, how long can Russia afford to keep thousands of troops (some of them conscripts) living in tents? And how long before some of those vehicles become un-serviceable. I think time’s not on Putin’s side here.

The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin’s a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!

You have just signed a significant bilateral agreement with the host of the Olympics, you don’t think it was discussed? Would the Chinese want one country competing to declare war on another during the games?

He only has to be there long enough for the other side to blink and give him the concessions he wants.

As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.

The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin’s a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!

China wants people to watch the Olympics and see China in a positive light, not to be distracted by a war in Europe.

Spring is a few months away yet, how long can Russia afford to keep thousands of troops (some of them conscripts) living in tents? And how long before some of those vehicles become un-serviceable. I think time’s not on Putin’s side here.

This is what the Twitter thread discusses, essentially Putin has a small window to make a go/no go decision. After the Olympics, before the conscripts go home, when the ground is good for manoeuvre. But that’s the full invasion scenario, the disrupt and terrorise scenario continues regardless

As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.

With deteriorating combat power and morale, you can’t keep them at a high state of readiness for ever

As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.

Lots of them are conscripts and their time’s up in April. Now, he can make them stay on a bit under emergency powers, but Russia is as war casualty adverse as most other countries. (perhaps even more so) One of the reasons Russia withdrew from Afghanistan was the non stop ‘parade’ of returning injured and dead soldiers; it got so bad that they started bringing them back to Russia at night-time, and that was the old communist regime.

Putin is on the horns of dilemma, the longer he waits, the less threat his build-up is, and less likely he is to be able to invade, he’s deeply unpopular at home, and needs a ‘win’ . So far it’s not worked. he’s running out of options, money, and time.

As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.

Frozen ground is better, tho not an obstacle

A Little Mud Won’t Stop Putin

Granted, but you can continuously move troops in and out. If you are exercising, you can rotate troops out to a rear area or their original station and bring in new troops to continue the training.

The troops moving would gain experience of having recent training and would then go on to get some rest, the troops coming in would be fresh and would be able to top up their training. As a benefit, while they are switching over, you’d have twice as many troops in place for a limited time.

If I had doctrine that relied in a significant part of overwhelming numbers of ground troops, I’d be looking at planning a phased relief in place a couple of weeks before I wanted to invade. My existing, trained troops would have had a couple of weeks to relax and pass experience on, the fresh new troops would have had a couple of weeks of training and would not be worn out yet.

I’d want equipment as well maintained as possible, so maybe bare minimum aircraft activity before that period as the bulk are serviced and made ready, same with IFVs and tanks.

Picture of liz truss on BBC website – she looks like an extra from Dr Zhivago.

Instagram Secretary Liz Truss is on a city mini break in Moscow pic.twitter.com/uA7RzWbG5X

— Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) February 10, 2022

I tend not to do politics on here but that woman is an absolute cockwomble wouldn’t even make a third rate tictok influencer.
And sadly Putin has to do something I don’t think he expected the support the Ukraine got and has backed himself into a corner.
The Ukraine army has dug in and has western support Evey inch of the Russian front will have been photographed.
It needs a huge diplomacy mind to unravel the mess.

They had some of her speech on the radio news.

She didn’t sound as shit as Johnson, despite the stilted delivery.

How far have we fallen that Liz Truss is a better public speaker than the PM.

I love that childlike, almost vacant look she tends to do when trying to look stern and powerful.

My lad used to do a similar expression when on the potty.

It needs a huge diplomacy mind to unravel the mess.

Which presumably is why Liz Truss is in Moscow!

This thread will be redundant by teatime, you mark my words.

Didn’t sound as shit as Johnson. That should be on the dust cover of her book. She will write a book or someone will for her.
That photo is the perfect example of why some of Russia believe Putin.
“See comrade the British still think Russian people dress like the emperor”
She should have worn a tracksuit and Prada trainers and had her phone above her head way more insta

My lad used to do a similar expression when on the potty.

She does look like she is curling one out…

Truss doing as expected I see

This presser has not gone well. Sergey Lavrov has just briskly walked off, leaving @trussliz on her own at the podium. He said talking to her was ‘like talking to a deaf person’ & said what Russia does in its own territory is ‘not her business.’ She’s now got lunch with him… pic.twitter.com/7w3xORhUdw

— Emma Burrows (@EJ_Burrows) February 10, 2022

The conversation between @trussliz @FCDOGovUK & Russian FM Lavrov @MID_RF is as icy as the Moscow weather. They disagreed, threw insults & accused each other of not listening. If anything, this visit may have soured U.K.-Russia relations further. That’s an achievement in itself… https://t.co/8ggixddcjl

— Emma Burrows (@EJ_Burrows) February 10, 2022

I have some sympathy for Truss here. Lavrov gets to act any way he damn well pleases as he’s part of a mafia state. Like being an arsehole and walking off the platform like a petulant child. It must be pretty thankless trying to “negotiate” with an organisation that will ignore everything until it gets want it wants

I think Truss has played into Russia’s hands perfectly

shes given them exactly the kind of pretext they wanted

Things behind the scenes were even worse, according to @ElenaChernenko.

Lavrov said, "Do you recognize Russia's sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh oblasts?"

Truss said the UK would "never" do so – before the ambassador told her they're not in Ukrainehttps://t.co/n2FkadhSHY

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 10, 2022

*facepalm*

I have some sympathy for Truss here.

You know that then the government she serves in is awash with dodgey Russian money?

I have some sympathy for Truss here. Lavrov gets to act any way he damn well pleases as he’s part of a mafia state. Like being an arsehole and walking off the platform like a petulant child. It must be pretty thankless trying to “negotiate” with an organisation that will ignore everything until it gets want it wants

I don’t, the Russian behaviour should have been anticipated, she should have prepared properly. She occupies one of the great offices of state, we expect better.

She needs to drop the rest of her portfolio and focus otherwise the major embarrassments will continue

You know that then the government she serves in is awash with dodgey Russian money?

Precisely. Its always annoying when your employer screws you over.

I have some sympathy for Truss here. Lavrov

I agree with you. We all need to feel sympathy with the morons who have, through their own narcissism and egomaniac ambition, not even been arsed to do even the bare minimum of research for the hugely important meeting they were about to attend?

Poor Liz, eh?

So, should I start building the shelter this weekend?