Ukraine

Currently a big advance by Russians and Ukraine are struggling to hold them back, extra meat for the grinder will help the Russians

^^Thanks for the insight there. <Thumbs up.>

Let’s see what happens with the additional troops from NK. When the first NK PoWs turn up then things will have changed

There have been NK engineer troops in this conflict for some time now, along with NK artillery rounds and missiles, but this isn’t being given to Russia for free. If Ukraine is whipped up into a fury by talk of an operationally insignificant number of “Special Forces” and launches an attack on their training camps then NK might take it personally. This can only help the Russian cause and lower the costs to them and the strain on the Russian economy

SKorea has stayed out of this directly because internal policy dictates that it doesn’t get involved in ongoing wars. Their President doesn’t have the support to over-turn that policy, but factor in NK troops getting front-line experience and that support could be forth-coming.

SKorea already supplies Poland with armoured vehicle expertise (the Polish Krab has a SKorean chassis) and has supplied Poland and others (but not Ukraine directly) with additional materiel.

Bringing SKorea directly in would be a mistake for Russia, so let’s see where the NK troops end up

It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.

RustyNissanPrairie
Full Member
It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.

Handled correctly it could lead to a more stable world. A diminished Putin and renewed confidence within Western style democracies

However. Trump.

One potentially worrying thing recently for global stability and proliferation post conflict. Ukraine have intimated that if they aren’t given the security of NATO membership or something closely approximating it, then they will pursue the development of nuclear weapons to protect against future Russian aggression. Because of their civil nuclear programme and sophisticated engineering and defence industries they could likely do it in very short order.

Whilst it will wind Putin up immensely, a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire. Far better than the further proliferation of nukes.  Especially as that would break a taboo and encourage Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and who knows else to do it because of their own security fears.  It’s lose/lose for Russia – Ukraine will end up being either a NATO member or become a nuclear power.  Much like Finland and Sweden joining NATO, a shit ton of unforeseen negative consequences for Russia of Putin’s attempted land grab.

It does feel like it’s a slow moving train wreck leading to (a conventional / non nuclear) WW3.

It does feel like America is voting on a global future as well as for their own President.

a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire.

Whilst that would certainly reduce the chances of Putin ‘having another go’ a ceasefire right now would leave vast swathes of internationally recognized Ukrainian sovereign territory under Russian occupation.

This will be an inherently unstable situation, Urainian resistance inside these territories is not going to stop just because of a piece of paper and neither will the brutal repression of this resistance. all the while with a rebuilt and battle hardened Ukrainian military just next door watching their countrymen get slaughtered on land that’s rightfully theirs.

Zelensky seems to have a cool head but that leaves him open to challenges from an opposition candidate willing to bang the drum of nationalist grievance and there’s no lack of material for them to work from.

If a year or two down the line Ukraine attacks the Donbas or Crimea as a result of this, where will NATO stand?

Anything short of a full return to the 2022 and preferably the 2014 borders will be inherently precarious.

If Trump gets a 2nd term and fatally undermines NATO you can expect a swath of ‘Western’ countries as well as South Korea and Japan to seek nuclear weapons to act as their guarantee against future Russian or Chinese aggression, now the US can no longer be relied upon.

Isn’t part of the reason for ukraine occupying some of russian land is to make an immediate ceasefire where the occupier retains the land they have captured completely unfeasible?

Not that I think any ceasefire is likely or worth the paper its written on.

To be clear, I am not suggesting Ukraine should enter a ceasefire now or accept any loss of territory. That’s up to them. I would dearly love to see them regain all occupied territory back to 2014 borders including Crimea.  But as desirable as this is, it doesn’t seem likely to me.  I think they will have to accept some loss of territory.  It grieves me to say it and I know that will leave a very unstable situation, but I think that’s what is most likely.  Despite my suggestion that NATO should accept Ukraine, I don’t think they actually will in those circumstances.  So Ukraine will probably have no choice but to develop a nuclear programme and the world will become a bit more unstable 🙁

^^ Regrettably I suspect we will see an enen less stable version of Korea’s DMZ.

The Donbas wont be a nice place to live for sure. There will be a lot of pissed off Ukrainians with military training constantly pushing back at Russia. Not much of a victory for Putin.

I am not suggesting Ukraine should enter a ceasefire now or accept any loss of territory.

That might be Trumps solution should he win.

If Ukraine doesnt go for it, the war drags on, possibly even forcing Ukraine to the table and the option then is the loss of greater territory than had they accepted the earlier deal.

Anders had stuff to say about the nuclear stuff a few days ago

Some European nuke thoughts https://missilematters.substack.com/p/making-europes-nuclear-deterrent

Ukraine (and Europe) is at a crossroads, the EU still hasn’t delivered 1 mn artillery shells that were promised by March 2024.

NK troops aren’t confirmed in front-line action yet, but the use of NK troops will accelerate if that escalation is allowed without positive actions from the “west” and is a potential bellwether.

This article seems to be pretty balanced, it is split by full-width references to other articles, so keep scrolling (5 min read) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-creating-the-conditions-for-russian-victory-in-ukraine/

NK troops aren’t confirmed in front-line action yet, but the use of NK troops will accelerate if that escalation is allowed without positive actions from the “west” and is a potential bellwether.

I think there will be a bit of a shock factor involved here too. For pretty much all the wrong reasons (other than WW2)  Western nations have been overly keen to indulge in wars in Asia. I think it will come as a genuine shock when/if video emerges of NK troops fighting on European soil, on roads that look much like any road in Europe or the US.

From Ukraine’s perspective, I hope that shock can literally be weaponised against Russia.

Next week is highly important for Ukraine of course, it’s utterly depressing that their entire nations future rests upon an election thousands of miles away from them.

Either way, Americas focus is understandably pivoting towards the Pacific and it’s time Europe put it’s big boy’s pants on and took responsibility for it’s own defence. America is just not reliable anymore.

From Ukraine’s perspective, I hope that shock can literally be weaponised against Russia.

If it results in South Korea being persuaded to supply some of its vast stockpile of shells, it will maybe be a massive own goal.

Well, in more positive news it looks like all that money Putin spent trying to buy the Moldovan democratic process was money wasted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7w9dglzzlo

All that money could have bought a whole load of kit to chuck at Ukraine.. win-win

Now…. about Transnistria.

Yep, a renewed Soviet empire not going so will for Putin.

Feels like this shouldn’t be on page 2 on the day of Trump’s election.

Great power world order stuff going on here people!

I really hope Biden gives Ukraine free reign to use missiles etc how it wishes, within international law of course.

What’s Putin going to do now? Push the big red button, knowing Trump will give him most of what he wants in a couple of months time?

Hit ’em as hard as possible in the meantime and let Trump sort out the shit. 🙂

Come on Biden!

a much better option would be to give Ukraine a proper article 5 style guarantee immediately after any ceasefire.

Which is what the Budapest Memorandum was for… If we (The UK and US) aren’t prepared to step up properly and intervene now why would we because Ukraine had another piece of paper saying that we would?

.

Arguing with myself/thinking out loud. It’s sufficiently far away from UK/US (and France and Germany, who weren’t signatories to Budapest but with the UK are the biggest militaries in Europe) that it’s not immediately our problem and we can just send a few weapons and look like we are doing something. Maybe a proper Article 5 arrangement with NATO (although if they’ve got that why not just join properly?) would lead to their more immediate neighbours, who are also scared of Russia, Poland for instance, stepping in and then the rest of NATO by extension?

Come on Biden!

You want Biden to risk starting WW3 just to spite Trump? Sorry but that’s that f-ing insane and psychotic.

You want Biden to risk starting WW3 just to spite Trump? Sorry but that’s that f-ing insane and psychotic.

I’m neither I assure you. I also have no interest in spiting Trump, just limiting his potential damage. Do you think Putin would risk the lot, his life, his family, his entire country over some conventional missile strikes when Trump is in power within weeks and likely to pressure Ukraine into piece negotiations? Putin just won the lottery as far as Ukraine is concerned.

Ukraine entering those negotiations at a time it is proving it can hit back further into Russia than before, at sites used to launch attacks on Ukraine is a good thing. I’ve lost count how often Putin has referenced nukes and his bluff has been called each time. He is holding out for Trump, he has no need or wish to launch nukes. I have no wish to have my grandkids die just to spite Trump, to suggest that is absurd.

This very scenario is being openly discussed by some very sane non psychotic Dems and even non MAGA Republicans.

On a purely personal note please don’t call me “psychotic”.  A friend’s son has been down that road and its a *clinical* diagnosis I doubt you are qualified to make, its not something to be banded about on STW to win a discussion. I’ve seen it tear a family apart, first hand.

I have no problem with you fundamentally disagreeing with me at all but the use of such a term is completely unjustified and I find it’s use in this context both insulting to me and to those that do suffer from it or it’s collateral fallout.

Thank you.

The Twitter account that used to track senior Russian officials making nuclear weapon threats gave up some time ago as there were too many to track, and by default no longer had any meaning (according to to whoever ran the account).

Quite a lot of Ukranian accounts on Twitter are losing followers by the hundreds, I guess as the bot farms / Elon switch them off .

You want Biden to risk starting WW3 just to spite Trump? Sorry but that’s that f-ing insane and psychotic

I don’t think that’s what anyone’s saying. But the West believing Putin’s empty threats over the years is a large part of why the invasion of Ukraine was able to happen in the first place. There’s speculation that the UK has already lifted restrictions on the use of storm shadow by Ukraine and if so it’s likely the US will follow with ATACMS, the difference being they’ll probably play Putin at his own game and just publicly deny giving any such mandate.

that was a deliberately antagonistic post up there, from someone who has form, very tiresome, well done @poopscoop for handling it politely

btw, I also said to the wife last night I hope US lifts restrictions onweapons soons so ukraine can push back as it seems to be generally believed trump will cut off support.  That said, I’m not so sure, US are so embedded in giving military aid can he really just pull the plug?  Won’t he have an army of senior advisers which would have been recommending this course of action to Biden?  They won’t be changing and I presume their advice will still be largely the same following the same logic.  But who knows, I may just stop watching the news and looking at social media for 4 years

Anyone know trumps position on sanctions? I don’t remember hearing anything except “I’ll end the war in a day“ drivel. Are American companies going to start supplying Putin with tech etc? 

DT78
well done @poopscoop for handling it politely

If fairness to dazh, he wasn’t to know he hit a bit of raw nerve but that’s the problem. We all have lives behind these user names so changing a word here or there just makes everybody’s lives that little bit better on any given day.

I’m sure in not without guilt here and quite rightly been pulled up about it in the past.

futonrivercrossing
Free Member
Anyone know trumps position on sanctions? I don’t remember hearing anything except “I’ll end the war in a day“ drivel. Are American companies going to start supplying Putin with tech etc?

Not a subject I can remember him mentioning to be honest but then again his notions and “policies” change all the time. As you say, he’s really just said that he’ll end the war even before he’s sworn in but he’ll have forgotten that by now anyway. It’s all mate up on the hoof.

Won’t he have an army of senior advisers which would have been recommending this course of action to Biden? They won’t be changing and I presume their advice will still be largely the same following the same logic

I’d love to be optimistic, but Trump has form for sacking staff in swathes, especially anyone associated with a previous administration. Even if he didn’t, he famously doesn’t listen to advice, or have the attention span to listen to anything at all which is longer than a sound bite. He probably thinks he has the “greatest strategic military insight anyone has ever seen” or some tosh.

He also bears grudges like the man baby he is, and has never forgiven Zelensky for refusing to dig dirt on Biden for him in 2019. If you read anything Trump has said about Zelensky since, he seethes with undisguised contempt for him. Tough times ahead for Ukraine. Europe needs to step up, not just on Ukraine but on defence and security cooperation generally. The US is no longer a reliable ally.

Well done Poopscoop for reacting to a hyperbolic insult and slur with dignity and politeness, this forum needs more like you.

There’ll be an almighty bunfight going on behind the scenes at the pentagon and state department. I suspect on one side you’ll have MAGA idealogues (Musk/Sacks et al) + (exclusive) China hawks pushing to cut Ukraine off, and on the other old skool cold warriors / nato enthusiasts aaaaaaaaand…..the military industrial complex.

What trump says and what he actually manages to do are differernt things, it’s more than possible that the second set of people manage to find a way to appeal to his vanity and self interest and get him to do the right thing.

What a shit show tho, relying on the venality of arms dealers to get america to do the morally right thing (protecting a soverign democracy defend itself agains a brutal autocratic imperalist)

Great response to a rubbish poster @Poopscoop; You are a bigger man than me, hats off to you – or should that be ‘chapeau’

NB I post this comment as I think the same poster doesn’t like the anonymity of people liking posts to bully others so, like DT78, I am happy to have my ‘username’ up there in case this is considered bullying and they want to report me.

I am happy to have my ‘username’ up there in case this is considered bullying and they want to report me.

I think there might be a bit of an overreaction to an off the cuff comment that was perhaps poorly worded. I think the point Daz was making is that in his opinion escalating the Ukrainian-Russian War because it would leave a mess for Trump to deal with would be madness (no insult intended)

It was fairly obvious to me that Daz was attacking the idea rather than the individual who made it. And to be fair imo he has a reasonably valid point, even if Daz has a tendency to often use hyperbole to make a point.

And to be fair imo he has a reasonably valid point, even if Daz has a tendency to often use hyperbole to make a point.

The point would be far more likely to get a hearing without the hyperbole though, it just puts people’s backs up.  As Poopscoop says, we are all guilty of forgetting there’s a real person behind the usernames on here at times. Me included, despite trying hard not to. Thankfully, this thread doesn’t suffer from it as much as the other long running threads. It would be great if we all tried hard to maintain that (not a dig at anyone, I really mean ALL of us).

As I say to my kids, there is what you say, and how you say it.

An interesting quick and dirty assessment of the impact of a Trump presidency on Ukraine’s fight by APN.  Measured and thoughtful as always from APN and maybe just a little bit less doom laden than many other commentators.  Less than 9 minutes long, well worth a watch IMO.

Boils down to – we don’t know.

I am surprised at the suggestion in the video that the cost of US aid to Ukraine might be an issue for Trump. In the scheme of things I wouldn’t have thought that it is unaffordable for the US, and it seems to be less than US aid to Israel.

If it proves to be true and that is what bothers Trump then the Israelis will be worried.

I dunno but I would have thought that scrapping half a dozen aircraft carriers would save the US far more money. It would still leave the US with 5 aircraft carriers, no other country has more than 2, and it’s more than enough for a president who claims that doesn’t believe in military interventions in far-flung distant lands.