Ukraine

I wonder how the prospect of NK troop deaths will be managed in such a tightly controlled society. Are these people going to just disappear never to be mentioned again or will it be a grandiose hurrah fighting against the evil capitalist west?

I suspect the reports of NK troops going to Ukraine are a bit misleading, let’s face it, you can’t believe anything Putin says. NK is supplying Russia with weapons and I think it’s much more likely that NK troops would serve in support roles related to that rather than as front-line troops.

Russia has the capability of advanced nuclear weapons, NKorea has been testing nuclear weapons since 2006 and Iran probably could produce nuclear weapons. The question is whether Russia has thought about helping them, which may be a consideration in the limited use of US-licensed long-range weapons in Russia

If at all possible Iran should be kept in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which ensures International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of their facilities. The difficulty is that Iran withdrew authority from some IAEA inspectors which limited inspections and could withdraw from the NPT altogether

Ukraine has also been embroiled in talk of domestic nuclear weapon production this week. President Zelenskyy’s comments provoked a response from President Putin.

The context was that Ukraine would prefer to be in NATO than to have the nuclear weapons that they gave up forty years ago because that’s a stronger option for them, “Zelenskyy later clarified his remarks, stating that Ukraine has no plans to develop nuclear weapons and sees NATO as the only alternative to ensuring its security.” https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/18/7480311/

Ukraine is considering using excess manufacturing capability to export weapons to its allies, which would give them money to buy more domestically-produced weapons, “Ukraine’s defence companies can produce $20 billion of weapons and ammunition per year, but Kyiv can only afford to spend $6 billion, the National Association of Ukrainian Defence Industries said” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-work-proposals-possible-weapons-exports-zelenskiy-says-2024-10-18/

I suspect the reports of NK troops going to Ukraine are a bit misleading, let’s face it, you can’t believe anything Putin says.

Agreed if it was just Putin or Kim Jong Un saying it, but the BBC article says the information is from South Korea’s intelligence agency. Apparently 1500 are already there and up to 12000 on the way. Arguably it would be in Seoul’s interests to highlight the fact or perhaps exaggerate numbers, but I doubt they would completely make the whole thing up in the way Moscow or Pyongyang might

China had a system of tributes- they would trade with other countries, let them keep sovereignty and offer military assistance if they were attacked by a 3rd party, all in return for payment. Basically a protection racket.
Their treasure fleet sent out in the late 15th century was to find new lands to “trade” with.

Tribute is an old system that was practice in those days in order to gain some “peace” from another powerful ruler or state to avoid war.  In those days, tributes only worked when both accepted the practice and generally nothing much happens between states once agreed.  However, tributes become imposition when the powerful state started to get greedy or to demand more. That’s when war starts.  The 21st century “tributes” is to impose an entire system on the weaker states, that way they can control practically all ways of life etc.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dxkz6yl2o

Rule 1: no one tell the Mongols (or the Scandinvians for that matter).

Rule 2: No one tell the Mongols, Jurchen  or some of the other Steppe nomads.

…and in a suprise to absolutely noone Russia is actively trying to put its thumb on the scale in the upcoming Moldovan elections.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23kdjxxx1jo

It’s depressing how effective their reactionary culture war messaging can be, people basically happy to sell out their country just to Own the Libs.

And… it looks like it might have worked.

hatter
Full Member
And… it looks like it might have worked.

Very disheartening for them. I’ve grown to hate referendums.

The machinery of democracy is proving far too easy to manipulate. It has to figuratively fight back or the democratic countries of the world have a grim future ahead.

I don’t want to derail this thread about Ukraine however: From @hatters link

“I’m not aware of anywhere else where we’ve seen such a brazen and open attempt to corrupt an election,”

Now where else am I hearing that at the moment?

Now where else am I hearing that at the moment?

Very true. Democracy has some real catching up to do if it is to survive the 21st century in a recognizable forum.

Id start with a major clamping down on the Wild West that is social media. Never has there been something that is so patently anti social, unregulated and open to societal changing abuse.

Not sure the Moldova situation is social media, reporting suggests it’s all rather old school, suitcases full of cash etc.

hatter
Full Member
Not sure the Moldova situation is social media, reporting suggests it’s all rather old school, suitcases full of cash etc.

Agreed. Russia will still use the old methods that have served it so well but as more of the world is increasingly influenced by unregulated online media, where a younger generation get their “news” from tiktok and now with AI in the mix… The potential for mass manipulation is huge and already embraced by China, Russia and others.

Only a few election cycles back this rang even a story, not it’s a threat to every GE or referendum held.

Estonia is one of the few nations that has actively taken the threat seriously, the rest of the Western democracies still have their heads in the sand in the main.

Edit: The referendum in Moldova is near 50/50 at the moment. Boy, how familiar does that sound. Fingers crossed for them. Not sure if the constitutional change referendum needs a larger majority? Ie. 60/40 etc?

Moldova referendum:

Official data put Yes on 50.31% and No on 49.69% on Monday morning, with over 99% of votes counted.

With almost all counting done it looks like they may have got it over the line.

Now the Russian bots will be pushing a “stop the steal” line no doubt.

worth remembering it took a revolution and a fair few state murdered civilians for ukraine to get out of those shenanigans

With almost all counting done it looks like they may have got it over the line.

Yup! Phew, it’s clear that Russia threw a ton of effort into this and looks right now like it hasn’t worked, but only by a whisker.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1wnr5qdxe7o

The presidential race will go to a run off in November now, hopefully this experience will allow Sandu to go hard with ‘Our Counry is not for sale” messaging.

So long as Putin’s outriders do actually lose, all that’s happened is that they’ve spent a ton of money that could have been used to buy Rockets to chuck at Ukraine and got very little in return so…. good…?

Ukraine in 2014 were further down the road to Russian dominance with a president basically controlled from the Kremlin etc so shaking it off was and continues to be is a hugely painful process, today’s vote in Moldova is about not going further down that path so bloodshed is not required,

So long as Putin’s outriders do actually lose, all that’s happened is that they’ve spent a ton of money that could have been used to buy Rockets to chuck at Ukraine and got very little in return so…. good…?

I’m guessing he’ll continue to attempt to destabilise the country as much and however he can. He’s really predictable in that regard but yep, it’s a win for Moldova for sure and hopefully sets them well and truly on the path to EU membership.

Stunning it was that close really, even allowing for the interference. Imagine looking at Russia and saying, “yeah, definitely want to be aligned with them, they are doing great.”

That said, we have Putin fans over here and the US might just be about to elect one as president. Madness.

With almost all counting done it looks like they may have got it over the line.

Now the Russian bots will be pushing a “stop the steal” line no doubt.

It’s inevitable because of the “glitters and gold” on offer to a small population.

Stunning it was that close really, even allowing for the interference.

Turnout was about 50%, if one side is actively paying it’s supporters to show up and the other side isn’t (as appears to be the case here) that’s always going to have a potential to skew the result in low-turnout election.

And sadly, in every county there is always as decent chunk of the population whose attitude is that politics is nothing to do with them and don’t really look beyond their own bubbles, which means that when somebody wafts a wad of cash under their noses they’re fairly pliable as they don’t really care one way or the other.

makes you wonder about brexit doesn’t it.

In fairness the Brexit referendum was far from, low turnout but yes, Russia was actively involved in trying to sway the vote and also in trying to amplify the most divisive and destructive sentiments that arose in it’s wake, much of the talk of ‘riots in the streets’ in 2018/19 if a rock hard Brexit was not enacted can be traced back to Russian Troll farms.

Issue was that at the time the government in power had zero interest in investigating as it as at that point Brexit was an article of faith that was above criticism and the last thing they wanted was to undermine their own mandate by poking holes in the 2016 result.

So in this instance, for Russia the Brexit vote was a roaring success, removed one of the most vocal and militarily capable anti-Kremlin voices from the EU and greatly embolded Putin.

It’s not that much of a reach to argue that no Brexit = no 2022 Ukraine invasion.

Putin will be absolutely furious

Maia Sandu faces a runoff against the 2 other pro- Russia candidates, whether she wins or not I’d be very wary of poisoning or other forms of assassination

It’s not that much of a reach to argue that no Brexit = no 2022 Ukraine invasion.

We’ll never know for sure but I can’t but help agree. That and Trump undermining confidence in NATO of course.

I really f****** hope he loses, for Ukraine’s sake as much as anyone’s.

Putin will be absolutely furious

I don’t think he’s wired up that way. It’s just another problem to solve, crooks to pay off, situation to manipulate, individuals to threaten or intimidate, people to kill…..  all to get to his endgame.

makes you wonder about brexit doesn’t it.

No, There was already plenty of evidence to show that social media was used in very specific ways to put a thumb on a scale on the side of the leave campaign. We need rules now (like those of broadcast and print media) to make the owners of places like X/Twitter/Insta/TicToc and so on publishers, to bring them into line.

In the future we’ll look at this time of social media use like the days of cars and no seat belt rules, or advertising for fags

No, There was already plenty of evidence to show that social media was used in very specific ways to put a thumb on a scale on the side of the leave campaign. We need rules now (like those of broadcast and print media) to make the owners of places like X/Twitter/Insta/TicToc and so on publishers, to bring them into line.

In the future we’ll look at this time of social media use like the days of cars and no seat belt rules, or advertising for fags

Also Brexit wasn’t a binding referendum, so not subject to strict rules around campaigning… it was ‘advisory’ so basically a free for all for ‘leave’ to poison the public narrative any way they felt like.

Putin will be absolutely furious

Nothing will change in the foreseeable future:

Moldova needs to elect a pro-EU president and control its borders first.

Ukraine’s President Yanukovych refused to sign a trade agreement with the EU, which had been agreed by their parliament, and led to the Euromaidan of November 2013. This became a full uprising a couple of months later, Yanukovych fled for Russia.

Russia then “annexed” Crimea at which point the EU project was over because you have to control your international borders to join the EU

Now substitute Moldova and Transnistria… control your international borders to join the EU

Stunning it was that close really, even allowing for the interference.

Stunning it was that close really, despite the interference.

About a year ago, I posted something on here about Ukraine’s allies having to be ready for Munich/Mossad style reprisals against individual Russians involved in the worst atrocities of the current war.

Well…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-high-ranking-pilot-found-dead-in-bryansk-oblast-military-intelligence-says/ar-AA1sDsfa?cvid=8c1fd9a9201a4d858834913362244230&ei=9

This won’t be the last, or the most brutal.

*can we avoid spoiling this thread by bringing in the Brexit crowd please

sorry my fault, I will go and stand in the corner, as you were

It has some relevance, so was worth a mention.  The difference on this thread is that it was discussed civilly,

Stunning it was that close really, despite the interference.

In June domestic opinion polls were majority pro-EU, around 60%, which didn’t account for Moldovans living elsewhere.

By the time of the referendum domestic votes were majority anti-EU and votes from elsewhere carried the win. Those votes were counted last, I assume to allow for postage delays, transportation, etc, and the late swing pro-EU has now caused allegations of vote-rigging from the opposition!

(EU) Membership requires:
– that the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities

It’s a reflection of a country that has a way to go to achieve EU membership and that’s assuming that a Russian military garrison in Transnistria can be somehow negotiated.

Ironically, Russia invading Ukraine has helped Moldova because Ukraine has closed its border with Transnistria, thus securing the international border. The war has also guaranteed that Ukraine won’t be renewing agreements for energy supply routes from Russia for 2025.

The Moldova (which includes Transnistria) Support Platform has worked to guarantee both gas and electricity supplies from EU neighbours and stop Russia’s influence over energy supplies that it has used in the past, e.g. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-accuses-russia-energy-blackmail-ready-any-scenario-2022-11-23/

The theory is that with Moldovan energy and trade all now bound up with the EU that Transnistria will fall into line with the national government by 2030 to properly secure its borders. That still leaves the Russian presence to negotiate.

The worst thing that can happen for democracy in both Ukraine and Moldova is for support to Ukraine to fail (massive thread drift, but it does come back to Ukraine 🙂 )

*can we avoid spoiling this thread by bringing in the Brexit crowd please

Sorry, I did feel it was relevant due to the parallels with what is happening in Moldova and the way it directly affects the wider ‘Russia Vs The West’ situation.

Let’s stick to lighter topics like Russian pilots being killed with hammers.

Sorry, I did feel it was relevant due to the parallels with what is happening in Moldova and the way it directly affects the wider ‘Russia Vs The West’ situation.

Yeah, it’s very hard to talk about Russia/Ukraine in isolation as Russia has really been at war with the West (in typical  hybrid fashion) for more than a decade.

Brexit was very much part of that strategy and one of Putin’s most significant wins. In this thread, what we think of Brexit isn’t really important but acknowledging Russians part in it very much is.

https://x.com/Daractenus/status/1849443794803961857

In what I believe might be one of the most satisfying pieces of news you’ll be reading today, the Moldovan authorities (I’m guessing with some outside help) managed to get substantial information on the Promsviazbank – one of the banks used by the Russians to mass purchase votes in order to influence the Moldovan elections.

To get a sense of the scale of what Russians attempted to do here, the amount of votes purchased (at least through this bank) amounts to 138k, meaning roughly 9% of the total votes cast in this election. The total suspected number goes as high as 300k votes, when accounting for all the other banks and means used by the Russians. Because getting a wire transfer right now from a sanction Russian might just be the worse way to go about doing this, the Moldovan authorities were apparently able to identify all the 138k people that have sold their votes.

The first 400 of the bunch have already been fined with about $1500 each, roughly 10 times the sum of money they sold their vote for. The “recruiters” and “heads” of this operation have also been identified and are looking at ample “me time” to reconsider their choices in all the comfort a Moldovan prison can pamper you in.

Blimey! Does make you wonder about the Brexit vote even more!

Blimey! Does make you wonder about the Brexit vote even more!

Yes, but who are paying for the vote?  Russia? I doubt it.  Coz Boris was the leader in those days and he is closer to USA.

Blimey! Does make you wonder about the Brexit vote even more!

Indeed. Also, well done Moldova on bringing some real world consequences to those involved.

Yes, but who are paying for the vote? Russia? I doubt it. Coz Boris was the leader in those days and he is closer to USA.

I would honestly bet my prosthetic penis on it being the Russians that were responsible for interfering in the Brexit ref. It’s was done more subtly than buying votes, sure, but they were behind it.

Boris wasn’t even PM at the time of the referendum anyway. Not that it matters, he has had some rather shady liaisons with Russians. The time he ditched his security detail to go on an all night bender with some ruskies comes to mind.

Anyway, I dont want to drive the thread totally of topic so I’ll leave it at that.

…………………………….

Im just desperately hoping Trump loses the election, in large part purely for what he will do to Ukraine. Sell them out. Shameful.