UKIP, the by-elections and Labour

I’ve been following this thread with interest, although at times it moves so fast I couldn’t get a word in edge ways.

My perspective is that by elections have historically been a protest vote and generally people fall back into line with how they have previously voted come the general election. What worries me with the rise of UKIP is that a lot of the floating voters, who would switch their vote based on what the media told them, will blindly follow the UKIP mantra of “Europe is bad, lets get out of Europe” without digging any further into their non-existent policies.

The twitter comment from a Clacton voter, the commonly held belief that LaFarage is a “man of the people” and that UKIP have made comments about the established parties loyalties to their corporate buddies, rather than the voters, just fills me with dread and fear of the outcome at the GE, if the balance of power is left to those floating voters who will vote based on fear and sound bites.

Maybe it’s because I have strong principals and political beliefs, but I really don’t understand how voters can swing from one political party to another. Especially when they are what has been called “core labour voters” who switch to UKIP. Tory to UKIP I understand, Labour and Lib-Dems protesting by voting UKIP?

Maybe I naive, but is the general populace that fickle?

binners – Member

JY – you seem to share the same deluded complacent view as Ed. UKIP polled 39%, the Tories 12% . So whichever way you look at it, the majority of voters opted for right wing parties. And that’s going to be replicated in constituencies all over the north with a lot slimmer labour majorities.

Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Labour Party, is it? The tiniest amount of tactical voting and they ‘re ****ed!

🙂 Calm down binners. Read my link, Islington will save you, the core Labour vote is going nowhere apart from maybe to the Greens**, quote :

The final result was 47 seats for the Labour Party and 1 seat for the Green Party. The Labour Party received 56 percent of the vote, its highest total in Islington since 1974. The Liberal Democrat Party lost all its seats despite having controlled the Council 4 years before.

OK Labour shouldn’t be complacent, but the Labour vote in traditional Labour strongholds is remaining solid, it’s the Tories and LibDems outside Labour strongholds who are facing the full onslaught of UKIP.

And even the Tories shouldn’t exaggerate the threat from UKIP imo. The SDP in its day “broke the mould of British politics” as voters disillusioned with the main parties flocked to it. Like many UKIP voters who allegedly never usually vote the SDP attracted people who had never previously been interested in politics.

It took 2 years for the SDP with all the media driven fanfare they received to get 6 elected MPs. Despite staggering levels of publicity it’s taken over 20 years for UKIP to get one single MP. UKIP will be around a while no doubt, providing an unhelpful and useless diversion, but ask yourself where are the SDP today ?

And there’s no point the LibDems being worried about anything as they are fecked anyway.

Labour needs to worry less about UKIP and more about why they don’t have policies which serve the interests of ordinary working people, otherwise their luck will eventually run out and their core vote will desert them, as surely it must.

I still can’t believe that the Labour vote held up sufficiently in 2010 to deny the Tories a parliamentary majority. What does it take to stop people voting Labour ffs ?

.

**I jest

Tory to UKIP I understand, Labour and Lib-Dems protesting by voting UKIP?

If you assume the working class vote labour then it’s obvious who should be voting UKIP. It’s not like the affluent middle class compete with immigrants. They employ them.

I’m not convinced the working class do vote labour though. They just don’t vote. They’ve got someone to vote for now though which makes it all unpredictable.

YOU need to be insane to think that the party of folk too right wing, free market, anti EU and racist for the Tory party is the party that will rescue the Working class

Its madness to think this.

Re THM’s point [ the stereotypes would have been true at some point in the 20 th century if not the end]the argument would be the post war consensus moved from the left to the right- hence Blair did the same to win power*. The argument may well be that people have had enough of serving the interests of business first and it may be swinging back the other way as people see where this has brought us.

mass immigration and monolithic super companies with structures designed entirely to avoid paying tax whilst we try to pick up the scraps

* you could argue the tories have swung to the middle hence its core voters are leaving to vote UKIP?

Ernie, please explain the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1968.

If you need some help, please read this: http://www.newstatesman.com/when-labour-played-racist-card

I also suggest that you read the links already provided by others, and take your head out of the sand as regards Labour’s record on immigration and race in the 1960s.

right wing, free market, anti EU and racist

It’s a straw man, but I’ll humor you. Do you really think the bnp and nf draw their support from the middle class?

Where are the SDP today? The House of Lords mainly

Ernie, please explain the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1968.

I really can’t be bothered with herberts who equate immigration controls with “racism”. Sorry.

This clip in which James O’Brien of LBC proves yet again that he can humiliate and discredit UKIP better than any mainstream politician is well worth watching.

Ernie.

That is brilliant. Thank you.

I also noted where these voters came from…was it labour or the others?

Comparing this by-election with Wythenshawe and Sale East, held just over 6 months ago, about 10 miles away, very similar result in 2010 GE, it appears most of those who have recently switched to UKIP came from people who would have voted Labour. The Lib Dems registered just about the same loss of share, the Torys lost a few % points more; UKIP up 21 % points share, Labour down over 10 % points of share (most of the rest of the difference in UKIP share came from BNP who didn’t stand).

You appeared to agree with that suggestion yesterday.

Smart LBC broadcaster plays games with a phone in caller. Quite obnoxious actually. He may have won some airtime points but if anything he will have hardened people’s attitudes and he did nothing to address the reasons why so many people are voting UKIP

On the Islington point it’s held up as a good example of champagne / new labour not least as it was the Blairs home. Millibands house is worth £2.5m. London has large amounts of social / council housing (plenty in Chelsea, Westminster and even Belgravia ) and a strong Labour vote. Most of those that work in central London can’t afford to live there and many of those who do aren’t eligible to vote so you have a curious mix politically of voting residents vs workers. There is always going to be massive wealth divide between a council properties residents and their neighbour in a multi-million pound fiat. All those workers in the middle income wise are a train ride away

I really can’t be bothered with herberts who equate immigration controls with “racism”. Sorry.

DO SOME READING!

The 60s were a fascinating time, and knowing what happened then is essential to avoid repeating mistakes.

Kensington and Chelsea is a world apart from poorer areas next door, politically and socially.

And even that is a generalization because K & C is quite deprived in pockets where the council hasn’t quite managed to squeeze them out: http://www.endchildpoverty.org.uk/london/poverty-in-your-area/kensington-and-chelsea-33/

I don’t know whether it’s harder to be living on benefits on a rich area or a poor area.

it appears most of those who have recently switched to UKIP came from people who would have voted Labour.

Right so we both agree that they were not labour voters and they came from other parties. Your right its a massive Labour party issue that other parties are losing voters and they are not. 😕

[genuine Q] What are we debating then ? We both agree they were not labour voters.

he Lib Dems registered just about the same loss of share, the Torys lost a few % points more; UKIP up 21 % points share, Labour down over 10 % points of share (most of the rest of the difference in UKIP share came from BNP who didn’t stand).

EH the Labour vote % increased. Where are these stats from ? [ again genuine Q]

You appeared to agree with that suggestion yesterday.

TBH I do not even know what your suggestion is.

Smart LBC broadcaster plays games with a phone in caller. Quite obnoxious actually

How is asking someone what the policies are obnoxious?
He just asks them what UKIP stand for and the person who supports them cannot say.
Its not a smart broadcaster its a very dumb voter.

Smart LBC broadcaster plays games with a phone in caller. Quite obnoxious actually.

Here you are jambalaya, just for you, a smart LBC broadcaster runs rings around the UKIP leader and exposes what an obnoxious organisation UKIP and its leader really is.

Perhaps that’s another reason why UKIP does badly London …… Londoners have a greater awareness of what a nasty homophobic hypocritical and racist organisation UKIP is, thanks to James O’Brien and the London Broadcasting Company ?

Does that make you sad ?

Thanks ernie, that was grand! 🙂

@ernie thanks I’ll listen to that later. Sadly the LBC guys not making much differences as the UKIP bandwagon rolls on at an increasing pace.

Milliband is in the Observer today saying Labour need to react to the issue of immigration impacting working people’s livelihoods undercutting their wages and working conditions.

Well we can all breathe a sigh of relief now this titan of UK politics has turned his eye to the UKIP agenda

I can imagine he’ll do something strong and decisive like appoint Alan Millburn, or someone to chair a policy review, to report back with some proposals by June 2017

ON BBC1 now….

…love the collection of books behind him. So much for a new style or anti-establishment vote. Who’s Who, the good news Bible, a dictionary and thesaurus, and Stalingrad and MrsT hidden away over his right shoulder….and some Jo Malone (?) smelly stuff.

How very Westminster elite!!!!

Sadly the LBC guys not making much differences as the UKIP bandwagon rolls on at an increasing pace.

How do you know he’s not making much difference ? Why isn’t the “UKIP bandwagon” rolling in London ? Why did UKIP get only a third of the vote in London that it got in the rest of England in May’s local elections ?

How do you know that Londoners who tuned into LBC weren’t so impressed with how James O’Brien demolished Nigel Farage’s nonsensical and hypocritical “arguments” that it helped them to decide not to jump on the UKIP bandwagon ?

What’s your explanation for UKIP doing badly in London in this year’s local elections when it did very well in the rest of England on the same day ?

What’s your explanation for UKIP doing badly in London in this year’s local elections when it did very well in the rest of England on the same day ?

Huge leap here, but maybe something to do with 1/3 of London population being born abroad?

An interesting comment from Labour List…

http://labourlist.org/2014/10/if-this-doesnt-wake-labour-up-to-our-problems-what-will/

thm – do you think those books were selected and positioned by a spin doctor?

To be fair, the Good News bible is hardly establishment, a King James bible certainly, but not the Good News.

Good spot Mefty.

“The Downing Street Years” in the background was amusing.

Less than 6 months ago we had local elections throughout England in which UKIP achieved a substantial breakthrough and did extremely well across the country.

The result in London was however significantly different. UKIP did not achieve a breakthrough in London and did very poorly compared to how they did in the rest of England.

Your favourite newspaper The Guardian said this at the time, but do you have any evidence for them doing ‘extremely well’ across the country excluding London?

Another way that we can demonstrate how the Guardian’s crude use of statistics is completely counter-factual is through comparison of UKIP support in some specific London boroughs with UKIP support in some of the aforementioned cities.

There were more UKIP councilors elected in each of three single London boroughs than in the combined cities of Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Leeds (combined population 2.6 million).*

Despite having a population of just 232,000 the London Borough of Bexley elected three UKIP councilors. Bromley (population 310,00) elected two UKIP councilors and Havering (238,000) returned seven UKIP councilors.
http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/local-election-results-2014-aav.html?m=1

Huge leap here, but maybe something to do with 1/3 of London population being born abroad?

Just one explanation ? Are you sure ?

There was a substantial difference between the UKIP vote in London and the UKIP vote in the rest of England, iirc about 20% in the whole of England and about 7% in London.

Do really think it was down to just one factor ? Or do you think it might have been down to many factors?

BTW why do think that a 1/3 of London population being born abroad would affect the UKIP vote ? Are you suggesting that UKIP is racist and therefore doesn’t appeal to foreign born Londoners ?

If so, you might be right, but Nigel Farage would strongly disagree with you.

So who’s right – you or Farage ?

Your favourite newspaper The Guardian …..

My favourite newspaper is actually the Morning Star.

Right so we both agree that they were not labour voters and they came from other parties. Your right its a massive Labour party issue that other parties are losing voters and they are not.

Not Labour voters at the last GE maybe, but that was by far the lowest share of the vote for Labour in H&M since the seat was formed in 1983 – far lower than Labour polled in the 1987 Tory landslide. So given Labour took nowhere near that high a share of the vote – let alone the 57.7% share they took in 2001 (when the other parties combined had fewer total votes than they did in this by-election, despite a far higher turnout), I think it’s quite clear that a significant number of the UKIP voters have been Labour voters in the past.

Of course if you don’t think it’s a problem for Labour only increasing their share of the vote by 0.8%, then you should probably check who the current government is, and think about whether it’s OK for Labour to just hold their ground. Because of course people don’t vote for the same party every election, and it’s pretty disingenuous to categorise people who didn’t vote Labour last time as non-Labour voters. These are people who would vote Labour. They are people who Labour need voting for them if they want to win the next GE.

EH the Labour vote % increased. Where are these stats from ?

I wrote at the top of that post: “Comparing this by-election with Wythenshawe and Sale East, held just over 6 months ago, about 10 miles away, very similar result in 2010 GE” – compared to that by-election, Labour increased their share of the vote by 10% less. I was surprised to find one which was so directly comparable – maybe you’d like to explain what the findamental difference is between those two constituencies? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wythenshawe_and_Sale_East_by-election,_2014

What I’m doing here is taking Feb 2014 as a benchmark and making the assumption that the result in H&M would have been very similar to the result in W&SE. Had there been a by-election than and now, the people who have switched to UKIP since February would mostly have voted Labour in February.

it’s pretty disingenuous to categorise people who didn’t vote Labour last time as non-Labour voters.

Ok then I will categorise non labour voters as labour voters from hence forth 😉
Yes I know what you meant.
Ok I get your broad point and it has merits However if* we change from a three party system to a four then votes have to come from somewhere and 100/ 4 is smaller number for all [ bar UKIP in this scenario]. To hold your own in this is good enough, for Labour, if UKIP take enough votes from the tories and Lib dems. It may not actually be necessary for a massive swing or indeed a swing, to labour as a massive swing to UKIP from tory can deliver a win. Even if some labour move to UKIP they will make it up with some lib dem protest votes to both Labour lead to labour winning. IMHO this is what happened in this seat.
FWIW its clearly unwise, and yes i just did it, to generalise from a by election to a general election. UKIP will not poll 40 % there in GE IMHO

When the tories are getting destroyed by UKIP, when the lib dems are in zero figures and Labour are maintaining their vote and winning. I think it is some way from panic stations.

As for the comparison ok i get your point – its reasonable one. Do you think there has been a sea change then? Personally I am not convinced.

Had there been a by-election than and now, the people who have switched to UKIP since February would mostly have voted Labour in February

It needs many more caveats for me to agree but the broad point is quite probably true but they still won,the others got stuffed and they increased their vote.

* i am not sure we have tbh

I think that, love him or hate him, you have to admire the front of Farage. He made a blinding statement in today’s Mail on Sunday (surely his spiritual home)

“We’d have won in Middleton if the Tories hadn’t split our vote”

I bet Dave nearly choked on his cornflakes reading that 😆

votes have to come from somewhere

There are a hell of a lot of people who haven’t voted much before, and now feel moved to vote UKIP.
There also a lot of people who have voted in the past, but now feel that they have no one to vote for.

1/3 of London population being born abroad would affect the UKIP vote ? Are you suggesting that UKIP is racist and therefore doesn’t appeal to foreign born Londoners

Eh, whats has country of birth got to do with race?

UKIP want widespread reform of immigration policy, clearly that is of direct interest to the 1/3 of London’s population who were born abroad

I can’t see how you would conflate that with race? People of all sorts of races are born in different countries. A quarter of the white people in London were born outside the UK, UKIP policies would effect them as much as non white immigrants!

In fact I’d suggest that its that sort of half brained wooly conflation of the two issues by you and your mates on the left that has led to the rise of UKIP in the first place 🙄

So you’re suggesting support for UKIP is based on general bigotry/xenophobia rather than just racism? I agree.

There are a hell of a lot of people who haven’t voted much before, and now feel moved to vote UKIP.

Have you got any proof for a “hell of a lot” and could you quantify that as an actual percentage please?
Its 15% [ of UKIP voters]according to research which is would say is not a hell of a lot.

The Survation poll is also cited by Ukip as evidence that they are attracting large numbers of non-voters. The results suggest that a significant number – 15 per cent – did not vote at all in the last election.

That doesn’t mean those people “had not voted for 20 years”. Survation didn’t go into that amount of detail when they carried out their surveys.

And the other major pollsters we have spoken to can’t prove Mr Farage right or wrong on this either. The polling companies generally ask people who they voted for last time, but don’t go back any further.

Dr Robert Ford, a politics lecturer from Manchester University who has been researching Ukip’s rise in popularity, told us there is evidence in more detailed questionnaires carried out by the British Election Study that Mr Farage may be right about the party attracting long-term non-voters.

Dr Ford said: “Ukip voters consistently come out as more negative about every aspect of the political system, the mainstream parties and the act of voting. People who don’t think they are being given a meaningful choice tend to stay at home more often.

“I think Nigel Farage has a point.

“These voters are not just disgruntled Tories or disgruntled Lib Dem voters. It is much broader than that. There is a broad-based sense of disaffection and it’s right across the political spectrum.

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-whos-voting-for-ukip/12934

I think that, love him or hate him, you have to admire the front of Farage. He made a blinding statement in today’s Mail on Sunday (surely his spiritual home)

http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/ukip-the-by-elections-and-labour/page/4#post-6376245 8)

I think the suggestion about Tory voters tactically voting UKIP has also already been suggested on this thread.

ninfan – Member

1/3 of London population being born abroad would affect the UKIP vote ? Are you suggesting that UKIP is racist and therefore doesn’t appeal to foreign born Londoners

Eh, whats has country of birth got to do with race?

UKIP want widespread reform of immigration policy, clearly that is of direct interest to the 1/3 of London’s population who were born abroad

I can’t see how you would conflate that with race? People of all sorts of races are born in different countries. A quarter of the white people in London were born outside the UK, UKIP policies would effect them as much as non white immigrants!

In fact I’d suggest that its that sort of half brained wooly conflation of the two issues by you and your mates on the left that has led to the rise of UKIP in the first place

Well obviously ninfan you have never heard of the fact that “foreign born Londoners” are often the target of racism !!! 😆

UKIP want widespread reform of immigration policy

Well since foreign born Londoners would be unaffected by that, on account that they are already Londoners, why would they not vote for UKIP ? Tell me.

Maybe, ninfan, just maybe, foreign born Londoners see UKIP as a racist party and as people who have experienced racism want nothing to do with them. Do you think there’s a slight possibility that might be the case ? 🙂

I think my point has now been understood, but here are some graphs to help:

Wythenshawe and Sale East:

Heywood and Middleton:

…and in case it isn’t obvious, here is the difference between those two charts:

where did the UKIP votes come from?