UK Election!

Its going to be a long five years

Not if you stop posting soon.

I can see a couple of items from the King’s Speech which may (or may not) have some relevance to the 2 child cap argument.

“Stability will be the cornerstone of my Government’s economic policy and every decision will be consistent with its fiscal rules. It will legislate to ensure that all significant tax and spending changes are subject to an independent assessment by the Office for Budget Responsibility”.

“A bill will be introduced to raise standards in education and promote children’s wellbeing”.

so why is this cheap simple to do policy which will have immdiate positive effects and which is being called for widely not making the cut?

There hasn’t been a cut yet. The cut is the SR.

Eh?  Ending the two child benefit cap is not in the kings speech.

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.” ~Maya Angelou

I didn’t think the policy would last long (I don’t think anybody did) but by the sounds of it I doubt it’ll last the week.

Seems like Starmer is looking for a way to ditch it with as little fuss as possible

Keir Starmer aims to avoid backbench rebellion with child poverty taskforce

Edit: this in response to tj

From the man who couldn’t compromise his principles enough to vote for any party. :roll:

Are ‘likes’ broken?

Edit: are emojis broken too?

Edit: and page indexing? Every time I edit it dumps me back on the previous page. Wtf?

I fthink thats all about kicking it to the long grass..Imo Starmer and Reeves stance on this is deliberate to signal that they are going to continue being tough on benefit cliamants.

It’s far more likely they get the commission they’ve just set up to come back and report in double quick time with a recommendation to abolish it, then they say “well that’s what the commission I set up has recommended so that’s what we’ll do”. Thus they step back without any backbench rebellions or loss of face and every bodies happy

Want to have our normal wager on this one Uncle Jezza? Always happy to relieve you of pastry  :D 

Seems like Starmer is looking for a way to ditch it with as little fuss as possible

That’s not what the link you provide as evidence says. It says that Starmer is trying to avoid a rebellion by creating a child poverty taskforce.

It reminds of a scene from that film which you love so much binners, the Life of Brian

Stop talking and get on with it.

Ok binners.

The bet is the two child cap limit is still in place in 6 months?    Ill even give it a year if you want.

I would like an apple pie i think.  I can taste it already

You’re on. Can you get the pies from the place you got them the last time I won please? Or was it the time before that? They were lovely :D

Eh?  Ending the two child benefit cap is not in the kings speech.

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.” ~Maya Angelou

Nor’s anything about the funding for the programmes that we (my work) are working on. Wouldn’t be appropriate to say what they are but they are comparatively a fraction of the cost and even more of a no brainer, eg: related to national security and resilience. The 2 child cap is a choice in comparison, no matter how desirable and morally essential.

The funding decisions are ‘on hold’ while the various Depts discuss their needs and plans with Treasury and decide what can be afforded. That’s how it works. Just because it wasn’t in the KS doesn’t mean it is not in consideration. If that was the benchmark, you’d be horrified at some of the stuff ‘that isn’t going to get done’.

There’s a child poverty taskforce, which will i’m as certain as I can be that will have this under strong consideration. From #10

A new child poverty unit in the Cabinet Office will report into the taskforce, bringing together expert officials from across government, as well as external experts. In the immediate term, the taskforce is expected to consider how we can use levers related to household income as well as employment, housing, children’s health, childcare and education to improve children’s experiences and chances at life.

The KS is a piece of pageantry but is little more than an advertising leaflet. We are miles away from the small print of the contracts. Could they have announced it – undoubtedly. Should they have – probably. Because they didn’t does it mean it won’t happen. Absolutely not.

The bet is the two child cap limit is still in place in 6 months? Ill even give it a year if you want.

Well that’s a bet that you will undoubtedly lose.

The idea that Starmer can ignore for very long the almost universal criticism of the child benefit cap, only the Tories and his faithful MPs support it, really isn’t feasible.

Criticism which binners ironically castigates people for expressing.

Opposition in parliament to the child benefit cap includes the LibDems, Scottish and Welsh nationalists, Greens, independent MPs, Reform UK, and of course a lot of Labour rebels. Plus Labour heavyweights such as Gordon Brown.

It cannot possibly survive as long as the pressure is maintained.

What’s the bet then? Still in place in six months? Odds on. Still in place a year from now? Might be worth betting against, but I wouldn’t. Still in place at the end of next year? Evens or worse, I’d take the bet against that one.

Lisa Nandy has said as much in a couple of interviews I’ve heard with her. Just because it’s not in the manifesto or KS doesn’t mean it’s off the table.

I am hopeful.

Edited.

The funding decisions are ‘on hold’ while the various Depts discuss their needs and plans with Treasury and decide what can be afforded. That’s how it works.

So how come other funding commitments were made ahead of SR?

Always happy to relieve you of pastry :D

So how do these wagers work, do you meet up for pie in person (er…) or are they postal pies?

I for one, need to know! :D

No “child poverty taskforce” is needed.  The experts have told him over and over again.  All that is a a device to kick it off into the long grass.  SOP for governments  when you don’t want to do something – set up a task force or similar.  Yes look to the long term and produce an overall solution but ending the cap could be done right now and would lift children out of poverty and hunger and would not stop an better solution later  Why do children in our rich country have to go hungry?  Its disgraceful and every day this continues is another day children are being damaged.  Every day this continues is a day too many

I think this is deliberate to signal to the tory press that he is going to be tough on benefits scroungers and that he is prepared to “be strong” ie pick an unneeded fight with folk over it

Ernie – your faith is touching.  With a huge majority Starmer can simply ignore the pressure – indeed I believe he wants it to make his ” look how tough I am” stance work

Will will see but IMO this is a major blunder

So how do these wagers work

Greggs deliver.

Are ‘likes’ broken?

Edit: are emojis broken too?

Edit: and page indexing?

Yes, yes, yes.

Every time I edit it dumps me back on the previous page. Wtf?

Or it just feels that way? It’s just the same few posters on each page making the same points.

actually I’ll stick my neck out further with two examples as they are both public domain. NQTP and RETSI. Google them. Where is the commitment in the KS to fund these going forward? By your logic that means we won’t??

So how come other funding commitments were made ahead of SR?

Good question. As I said,

Could they have announced it – undoubtedly. Should they have – probably. Because they didn’t does it mean it won’t happen. Absolutely not.

IDK why some things are deemed such no brainers that they put them on the must do list before the SR, and as above should this have been in that category? Feel free to continue to argue the politics and optics, that’s fair game. Maybe TJ’s signalling suggestions? Maybe not? I’m merely pointing out that the SR process is far from over, it’s only beginning.

So how do these wagers work, do you meet up for pie in person (er…) or are they postal pies?

I for one, need to know! :D

Been a variety.  Pies by post, paypal in exchange for a greggs receipt.

Been a variety. Pies by post, paypal in exchange for a greggs receipt.

Just how make bets have there been to work out these systems?

It’s like some underground gastronomic Fight Club. :D

Ok – lets move the conversatiuon on – just picked up this one

Keir Starmer has drafted into government two leftwing critics of his stance on benefits and green investment, as the prime minister faces pressure to drop Labour’s cautious approach to reviving the economy.

Statham has also criticised Starmer’s economic caution, and argued as recently as last month that his failure to prioritise scrapping the two-child limit on benefits would ensure Labour was making a “plan for substantial increases in child poverty” over the next five years.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/17/keir-starmer-appoints-two-influential-leftwing-critics-to-government

He might actually be quite good at this technocratic stuff – and not surrounding himself with folk who only say yes

Just needs to ditch Streeting and Cooper now.

Edit: at Poops

Don’t talk about it

:)

No “child poverty taskforce” is needed.  The experts have told him over and over again.

What do you think the experts are saying about RETSI?

Don’t talk about it

Cutting the two child benefit cap?

Fo. TJ’s graun article appears positive. No one wants this.

Del
Full Member
Don’t talk about it

It might also mean that tj and binners are one and the same person. I’ve never seen them both in the same room together.

Ahhh! :D

What do you think the experts are saying about RETSI?

I have no idea as I have no idea what that acronym is

TJ’s graun article appears positive.

It is. Two of many, many welcome appointments. If you look at them all as a whole, and compare to the last decade… all I can say is… thank **** that period’s behind us!

google it.

Ernie – your faith is touching. With a huge majority Starmer can simply ignore the pressure – indeed I believe he wants it to make his ” look how tough I am” stance work

Well I obviously give Starmer more credit than you do. Starmer and his advisors are no fools they know that the “huge majority” is built on sand ….34% of 60% of voters.

Labour is not very popular and Starmer’s personal popularity even less so. This isn’t like Labour and Tony Blair in 1997 when both enjoyed far greater popularity, even if the majorities are similar.

Starmer and his advisors full well know that depending on how they perform in parliament over the next five years the LibDems, Nationalists, Greens, independents, and Reform UK, all have significant chances of increasing their support in the 2029 general election. Taking the wind out of their sails and not providing them with open goals is going to be hard to resist.

And as for your claim that this is a deliberate signal to the tory press that he is going to be tough on benefits scroungers I think you are wrong, it’s about money and nothing else imo. Both Nigel Farage and Suella Braverman are opposed to the cap so it is hardly even a right-wing cause a celebre. It’s just a daft policy to save money with no thought for the long-term economic and social costs.

google it.

I did  Not much help.   I speak english not acronym and I do not see the relevance anyway.  We are talking about the 2 child benefit cap which numerous labour spokebods have said is staying.  Thats not ” we will see” but ” we will not be removing the cap”

Its clearly settled policy that the cap will stay and the commission is just a device to kick it off to the long grass.

https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election

That’s the first opinion poll I have seen since the general election, and they are predicting a Tory wipe-out again!

Every single opinion poll got the details completely wrong but also every single opinion poll got the overall result correct – a Labour landslide.

I am not sure how much value they still have..

I do not see the relevance anyway

It’s a vital piece of (DSIT) work that needs funding. I could argue it’s more important than the 2CBC; if our timing and nav infrastructure fails, the country falls over in no time at all, power grids fail, etc. YMMV. My point is it wasn’t in the KS, so by your benchmark isn’t happening, and that is just not correct.

numerous labour spokebods have said is staying / Its clearly settled policy that the cap will stay and the commission is just a device to kick it off to the long grass.

No, they’ve said it isn’t happening yet because it isn’t funded and they need to wait until there’s money to do it. What’s the process for deciding if there’s money to do it? CLUE: I’ve mentioned it a few times already. [and correction, I said DHSC, and I think it’s a DWP owned thing that they’ll have on their SR list somewhere]

You can argue it should have already been a commitment and I’d find it hard to disagree, other than there are dozens or hundreds of others that are equally or more so no brainers. You can argue because it’s not in the KS that means it isn’t happening, I’m telling you you’re wrong.

That’s not me guaranteeing it will happen….. the SR may decide it can’t be afforded, there are more pressing demands, that there’s a better way of doing it or whatever. Or they might cave to pressure and commit to do it before the SR. IDK. Ask me after the SR.

It’s a vital piece of (DSIT) work that needs funding. I could argue it’s more important than the 2CBC; if our timing and nav infrastructure fails, the country falls over in no time at all, power grids fail, etc. YMMV. My point is it wasn’t in the KS, so by your benchmark isn’t happening, and that is just not correct.

Errmmm – again in English?  :-)  Only joking dude

No, they’ve said it isn’t happening yet because it isn’t funded and they need to wait until there’s money to do it. What’s the process for deciding if there’s money to do it?

But they have found the money for other bigger spending commitments and also the denials have been much stronger than you say.   Its a weird hill to die on for labour to insist on keeping some of our most vulnerable folk in poverty for months or years longer

As I say, I don’t know why some things are committed before, and others not.

the denials have been much stronger than you say.

At the risk of being a STW meme, cite please.

But they have found the money for other bigger spending commitments

Priorities, dear boy, priorities.

To paraphase Macmillan