Syria

Yeah, but his territorial ambitions are so ridiculous that in another couple of years he could be saying the same thing about Alderly Edge

I think we’re spelling that Alderliye Edge these days 🙂

Steve Rosenberg has done a couple of 3-minute-ish Youtube “Reading Russia” pieces on the the Russia newspapers reporting of the Syrian rebellion for 9th and 10th Dec

Yup, it’s difficult to be optimistic when the dominant rebel faction is designated terrorist by the United States government and Israel has already both invaded and bombed Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime.

It’s difficult to be optimistic when the UN’s Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons supposedly destroyed all of Syria’s chemical weapons in 2013 and yet Syria continued to use chemical weapons, including Sarin, for several years afterwards on over 100 occasions. Perhaps the al-Assad regime fibbed because production of Sarin was banned in 1997

Israel’s actions have hopefully put an awful chemical agent out of reach of the various factions that might want it

Occupation of the Golan Heights has been contentious, even in the Knesset, for years. Member of the Knesset, Ahmad Tibi tweeted in 2021, “It doesn’t matter how many cabinet meetings are held on the Golan, it is occupied Syrian territory.”

Trump Heights was officially named by Israel in 2019 following his recognition of the Golan Heights as being Israeli-controlled. Any bets on the DMZ remaining a DMZ?

Syria continued to use chemical weapons, including Sarin, for several years afterwards on over 100 occasions. Perhaps the al-Assad regime fibbed because production of Sarin was banned in 1997

Or maybe the rebels fibbed, is that possible?

Or maybe the rebels fibbed, is that possible?

Dude, there are a lot of reports from external observers that have documented the alleged attacks. I’m sure both (all/multiple) sides of this conflict have been liberal with the truth and the application of the rules of war, but there does seem to be quite a bit of independent consensus that both side lobbed some spicy smoke bombs about, the Syrian regime a little more than the others.

there does seem to be quite a bit of independent consensus that both side lobbed some spicy smoke bombs about

That’s the point, whilst UN weapons inspectors did regularly carry out detailed forensic examinations on the ground and sometimes concluded that chemical weapons were used they were usually not prepared to say which side used them. Certainly there were occasions when it looked highly suspect that the rebels were responsible.

To dismiss the possibility of Al-Qaeda affiliated rebels being in anyway responsible would be strange imo. Indeed Israel uses that possibility to justify some of the hundreds of air strikes it has carried out against Syria since the fall of Assad.

I maintain that it is hard to be optimistic when you look at the situation and you see parallels with Libya only on a much larger scale and with far more regional consequences. I heard claims yesterday that Israeli troops were 12 miles from Damascus, I have no idea how reliable that claim is but it is clear that the peace and stability are not around the corner.

Israel’s actions have hopefully put an awful chemical agent out of reach of the various factions that might want it

Thank goodness the plucky IDF are so concerned to limit the chance that innocent people might be killed. Oh. Hang on a mo …

Israel’s actions have hopefully put an awful chemical agent out of reach of the various factions that might want it

Without straying into other forums territory, I have no doubt this action was motivated by self-interest. They’re not interested in the people of Syria, just it not falling into the hands of a Shia/Iranian aligned group.

Tbh I would take Israel’s claims that they have targeted chemical weapons sites with a pinch of salt. It sounds like a good justification for carrying out air strikes against Syria but firstly they are unlikely to know where any alleged chemical weapons are kept (why wouldn’t they have targeted them when Assad was in power?)

And secondly Israel is openly boasting that they have allegedly destroyed the Syrian naval fleet. Israel is simply attacking Syria (as well as invading and annexing chunks of it) the chemical weapons stuff is just the usual red herring by Israel to cover up what they are really doing.

That sort of stuff plays well to Western audiences.

Ive n0 doubt that Israel will do whatever they want with minimal regard for civilians, Im not sure that  blowing up chemical weapons is the best idea either, certainly not for people nearby.

Or maybe the rebels fibbed, is that possible?

But Syria absolutely has been using chemical weapons despite Syrian (& Russia’s ) denials

The reports from Syrian civillians are pretty harrowing and they now want those that carried out the attacks brought to justice

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4xyd1yx0go

https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/04/04/syria-year-chemical-weapons-attacks-persist

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2020/04/21/the-open-source-hunt-for-syrias-favourite-sarin-bomb/

https://www.ohchr.org/en/hrbodies/hrc/iicisyria/pages/independentinternationalcommission.aspxhttps://www.ohchr.org/en/hrbodies/hrc/iicisyria/pages/independentinternationalcommission.aspx

https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2019/03/s-1731-2019%28e%29.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=OPCW%20Issues%20Fact-Finding%20Mission%20Report%20on%20Chemical%20Weapons%20Use%20Allegation%20in%20Douma%20Syria%20in%202018&utm_content=OPCW%20Issues%20Fact-Finding%20Mission%20Report%20on%20Chemical%20Weapons%20Use%20Allegation%20in%20Douma%20Syria%20in%202018+CID_48bc58f8c18deb3191baba457f96ffd8&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=final%20report

who knows how big the Syrian chemical weapons programme was?

With 1000s of ISIS members being held in camps in NE turkey by US backed Kurdish rebels, that are currently being attacked by the Turkish backed rebels….. getting rid of Syria chemical weapons stockpile should be a priority, but the UN should be doing it on the ground rather than israel by air

(why wouldn’t they have targeted them when Assad was in power?)

Well, because they wouldn’t care if Assad was using them. Assad was unlikely to use them against Israel, some factions within the rebels not so much.

To me (far from an expert!) it looks fairly straightforward: mostly it’s actually as Israel is saying for once – they don’t want the rebels to have the military stuff, chemical or otherwise. Maybe chemical’s a red herring, maybe not, guaranteed if they do know where any is then they’re targetting it. Also it’s a good opportunity, from their point of view an unfriendly neighbouring country without a military is a Good Thing, whoever’s in charge. Of course as a bonus they get to grab more of the Golan.

Hopefully from the Israeli side of things this is where it’ll stop for a while, the last thing we need is this flaring up further. I daresay Syrian civilians would agree with this.

Hopefully from the Israeli side of things this is where it’ll stop for a while

im hoping for more hair and a bigger dick. I’m not sure which of us is more delusional.

im hoping for more hair and a bigger dick. I’m not sure which of us is more delusional.

“Hopefully” is not the same as “I think this is what’s going to happen” *rolleyes emoji*

I don’t like Israel’s policies any more than you but also don’t think posting “evil Israel is trying to take over the world and kill all civilians!!!” at every opportunity is the best attitude.

 the UN should be doing it on the ground

Yes, they should, but why don’t they? (And also, why didn’t the U.N. step in and destroy all the chemical weapons stocks when Assad first started using them against civilians?)

 (And also, why didn’t the U.N. step in and destroy all the chemical weapons stocks when Assad first started using them against civilians?)

I can make a guess….

don’t think posting “evil Israel is trying to take over the world and kill all civilians!!!” at every opportunity is the best attitude.

Which I guess is why no one does that. What is reasonable, honest, and important, though, is to point out that Israel kills civilians, including women and children, by the tens of thousands. And that Israel relentless takes over land which it isn’t entitled to and in gross violation of international law.

Which I guess is why no one does that.

I was exaggerating slightly for effect, as I think is pretty obvious.

What is reasonable, honest, and important, though, is to point out that Israel kills civilians, including women and children, by the tens of thousands. And that Israel relentless takes over land which it isn’t entitled to and in gross violation of international law.

Yes agreed. I think it’s fair to say that the 2 posters most outspoken against Israel on this forum are you and DrJ, but while you seem to have some depth of knowledge about the subject and write interesting posts with relevant facts and opinions, DrJ just seems to write short snippets filled with hatred and not much beyond “Israel are murderers!” (exaggeration/simplification again). True or not, it’s exhausting, predictable and reduces the impact of the message.

Yes, it needs to be known. It doesn’t need to be hammered over our heads when anything slightly relevant is mentioned.

That’s of course only my personal opinion and perception.

but while you seem to have some depth of knowledge about the subject and write interesting posts with relevant facts and opinions, DrJ just seems to write short snippets filled with hatred and not much beyond “Israel are murderers!”

Thanks for the patronising commentary. I’ll be sure to file it in the appropriate place.

why wouldn’t they have targeted them when Assad was in power?

I would suggest two main reasons.

Firstly he was rather unlikely to attack Israel with them vs some of the groups who might acquire them now.

Secondly the air defence (both ground and aircraft) has vanished.

So the risk reward is far more in Israel favour now.

but while you seem to have some depth of knowledge about the subject and write interesting posts with relevant facts and opinions, DrJ just seems to write short snippets filled with hatred and not much beyond “Israel are murderers!”

I don’t know any details but I suspect that the difference which you perceive in attitude between me and DrJ is probably based on DrJ having a direct and personal connection with events in Palestine which is something that I don’t personally have.

As a consequence it is undoubtedly easier for me to suppress my anger and revulsion and sense of hopelessness of the situation than it is for DrJ

I am active on several local WhatsApp groups in support of Palestine which are very much dominated by the Muslim community, including many actual Palestinians (diaspora). They do unfortunately but not surprisingly dwell on the most harrowing aspects of the truly desperate situation. DrJ’s posts are very similar in attitude to many of theirs, which apart from also a few snippets of information makes me feel fairly confident that he has a personal connection with the situation.

It is difficult to lecture someone who has been a victim of islamophobia, or has been brought up in a refugee camp, or has had family or friends slaughtered by the IDF, to be more tolerant and less angry. Or to discuss new developments in a totally objective manner, so I have discovered.

The only way I can get away with it is to remind them that I am 100% on their side, and TBF I do walk the walk. If I was doing it from a neutral position, and obviously even more so from a hostile position, it would be a whole different ballgame.

You might well say  “I don’t like Israel’s policies any more than you” to DrJ but he is not going to believe you. It is obvious that you like Israel’s policies a lot more than he does.

Firstly he was rather unlikely to attack Israel with them vs some of the groups who might acquire them now.

Except that much of the military hardware and weapons in the hands of the rebels has for a long time been captured from the Syrian army. If Israel isn’t safe from these chemical weapons now it wasn’t previously. I also wasn’t aware that anyone doubted that pre the fall of Damascus the rebels already had access to chemical weapons.

As I said previously I think the claim that they are targeting chemical weapons in Syria is simply another IDF lie to sway Western public opinion in favour of their hundreds of attacks inside Syria. It seems that it might have swayed the opinions of a couple of punters on here.

“We need to attack/start wars because the bad guys have WMDs”  always goes down reasonably well with Western audiences. And it’s also a useful smokescreen when you are quietly robbing more land from your neighbours.

This short clip of a Gen Wesley Clark interview back when he was making a bid to be Democrat presidential candidate might be old but I do think that it is still quite relevant to the situation today, despite everything that has  occurred since.

I don’t like Israel’s policies any more than you but also don’t think posting “evil Israel is trying to take over the world and kill all civilians!!!”

Are you sure ? Their history post Egypt is littered by them committing genocide. All under the pretext of “God gifted us this land”

As a consequence it is undoubtedly easier for me to suppress my anger and revulsion and sense of hopelessness of the situation than it is for DrJ

For whatever reason, this is an issue close to my heart, and it’s been a hard 14 months (and counting) watching the smirking murderers filling our TV screens. If that meant that I lashed out at the well-meaning folk of STW, I apologise – you were most likely not the intended target. FWIW I’, still sure that we (on this forum) have enormously more in common than that which divides us, so please see my “contribution” in that context.

it’s been a hard 14 months (and counting) watching the smirking murderers filling our TV screens

On the TV? Anything on the telly is very tame imo compared to the horrific stuff, videos and all sorts of gruesome details, that get posted on my local WhatsApp groups. I categorically refuse to watch or read gruesome stuff, especially when it involves children.

I really don’t know why it is posted on pro Palestine WhatsApp groups when it is very obvious that no one needs convincing, and it clearly causes some serious depression and mental health issues for a lot of people. And then they provide links to Palestine focused counselling services…..”has the situation in Palestine affected you” etc etc ffs.

I personally know some Palestinian women, including with young children, who end up genuinely struggling as the result of seeing gruesome reports and videos day after day. I have tactfully suggested that they don’t look at stuff like that and point out that I don’t myself but it is dismissed out of hand. There appears to be this belief that they have a moral obligation to be totally aware of every horror that is occurring in Palestine. Dunno if it’s some sort of diaspora connected guilt because they are not suffering the same as Palestinians in Palestine.

So far right types in the West are unsurprisingly saying that Syrians should no longer be granted asylum/ have it revoked and the large number of Syrian refugees be encouraged/ deported back

The new syrian PM has also said they should come back

Im sure many would like to go back, but what they return to is still up in the air, if HTS go full ISIS or Iranian morality police then it wont be a place many want to return to.

In fact a lot of countries (including the UK ) are suspending examination of new asylum claims until the situation is clearer

The worry is that it might look good to start with but end up in another civil war

I did actually think after posting that perhaps there was a personal connection. Anyway, I apologise if I went too far and I certainly don’t mean to make light of anything.

I try to stay impartial in general when first hearing anything, am certainly no fan of Israel’s actions, but admit that there’s probably some unconscious bias in my circumstances and I am not exposed to  the details or anything like what Ernie describes.

Are you sure ? Their history post Egypt is littered by them committing genocide. All under the pretext of “God gifted us this land”

We’re talking about the modern Israeli government here…

Anyway, the rabbit hole this is starting to go down should probably best be confined to the Gaza thread if anywhere. Let’s keep this one Syria focussed, so as not to annoy Drac & Co. too much 😉

Im sure many would like to go back, but what they return to is still up in the air, if HTS go full ISIS or Iranian morality police then it wont be a place many want to return to.

What kind of an alliance is “the rebels” anyway? Mainly HTS people with them in charge of everything? 150 small splinter groups with HTS nominally in charge?

I have read that HTS is trying to get away from the “islamist extremist” image and trying to become more moderate especially as they transition from fighting a war to actually running a country, but no idea how accurate or optimistic this is.

I have read that HTS is trying to get away from the “islamist extremist” image and trying to become more moderate especially as they transition from fighting a war to actually running a country, but no idea how accurate or optimistic this is.

Yeah I read that too about the Taliban when they returned to power in Kabul, how did that turn out?

The latest news I got was that Taliban2 are now slightly more extreme than Taliban1

Well I guess that they definitely don’t need to worry about a foreign military attack anymore. The only threat now will be internally, so they can focus on consolidating their grip on power

Edit: 5 days ago :

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2024/dec/06/taliban-afghanistan-ban-women-training-nurses-midwives-outrageous-act-ignorance-human-rights-healthcare

I am fairly confident that men won’t be allowed to get involved in the medical examination of women so I am guessing that women will have to forgo previous medical care.

I can’t remember Taliban1 being quite that extreme.

Also wonder what will happen to Syrias lucrative amphetamine trade? destroyed or used as a money making machine and leverage by HTS as Assad did?

Maher Al-Assad’s factories for manufacturing Captagon were seized by the Free Syrian Army. The Free Army accomplished in two days what the world’s nations couldn’t: dismantling the largest network for manufacturing and smuggling Captagon in the world.

— Nedal Al-Amari (@nedalalamari.bsky.social) 2024-12-11T10:08:21.880Z

already videos of Captagon storage facilities, the trade was run by the military and overseen by Assads brother (and Hezbollah in Lebanon)  has spread across lareg parts of middle east and used by all sides in civil war, ISIS weresaid to use it a lot too

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/07/border-traffic-how-syria-uses-captagon-to-gain-leverage-over-saudi-arabia?lang=en&center=middle-east

Stock response is “but bacon!”.

I had beers last week with a friend who’s been working overseas for the last 15 years, first in the Middle-east, now in Asia. He said that when he went to the M.E., he didn’t think that not being able to eat pork would be a big deal, but then when he left and could sit down and have a beer and a burger with bacon or some roast pork, he realized just how delicious it is. I get that some people don’t eat meat for perfectly good reasons but, for anyone who likes roast pork or bacon, it really is difficult to comprehend how someone could not like something that delicious. It’s like people who say they don’t like chocolate, it just doesn’t make sense to anyone who likes chocolate.

So to sum up Syria is fecked unless the people can have a beer and a burger?

I’m not sure that the jihadists would approve.

Oop, sorry, posted in the wrong thread. Should have been in the food thread, quite ironic that it ended up here. Sorry.

Missed the editing window by no more than a minute!

I’m not sure that the jihadists would approve.

Jihadists or Vegans, dear god that’s end of times stuff.

Did anyone see the Channel four report tonight about the mass graves that have been found? The scale of it is staggering. An estimated 150,000 thousand bodies in one location alone. Interviews with the drivers who delivered the corpses in refrigerated lorries, the digger drivers who were made to bury them in layer upon layer.

Grim details of the torture methods used on some, including children before they were killed. I hope there is a huge international forensic effort to document, quantify, and identify the victims. And that at some stage, Assad and his subordinates face justice, and the Russians and Iranians who watched or enabled it. I am aware of similar atrocitites that have happened elsewhere historically or in the present, to head off any temptation to say “what about…”.

That channel 4 news report made for pretty grim viewing. The scale of it is ridiculous. Torture and killings on an industrial scale.

Unfortunately I think they’ll be uncovering many more similar sites of horrific atrocities

Unfortunately I think they’ll be uncovering many more similar sites of horrific atrocities

You will undoubtedly be proved correct 🙁

Looks like Russia may be pulling out of Syria, partially or wholly.

Russia moving equipment at Syrian bases

There was a video of US forces moving in to a Russian patrol base earlier in the week. Good site exploitation opportunity I’d imagine.