Syria

On this subject – was life better for ordinary Afghans when the Russians were in charge than they are today?

Yes, life was better for women when Russians were “in charged”, but now women are just for child bearing purposes.  However, life is generally “peaceful” with only men on the streets.  Taliban has taken a “softer” stance with other nations that want to trade with them and a formula they perceive to be working. People are still surviving as far as I know from their street food scenes.

Damascus is falling, and the dominos are beginning to tumble for Russia.Putin remains a master strategist

Russian outposts fall due to close proximity with Israel and a NATO member (Turkey), but that is just how things are in middle east since Arab Spring. i.e. someone is stirring the pot.

Introducing western “democracy” to that region in the name of peace etc (true aim is to sow chaos to make it easier to manage) is actually moving a step closer to creating the khilafah for the entire region.  The West think they can control the fragmented groups and the impression is that they can, but this is merely a temporary state of truce as the fighters are all merely complying while recuperating from decades of wars. The vacuum will be slowly filled with religious based movement again, and one that is very conservative.  Those middle eastern nations with Western ties will slowly disappear in future. IMO, Lebanon and Jordan are on the shaky grounds in the long run, and will be the next targets if the religious based groups can stabilise (agree amongst) themselves. Ultimately, No matter how friendly they are with the West, they ALL want Israel gone. I suspect within this 50 years or perhaps earlier, Israel will be part of the Khaliafah.  Although Turkey always want to be seen as the leader of the Khilafah, they are not and will be the last to fall.

Iran allegedly withdrawing at least some of its military from Syria

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/iran-syria-evacuation.html

Iran allegedly withdrawing at least some of its military from Syria

I suspect they don’t want to have more people dying. Not a good idea too to fight amongst the people with similar belief.

Although Shite and Sunni may look different or fight amongst themselves, they will eventually reconcile their differences to deal with their one main enemy in the region.  i.e. to kick their main enemy out for 3rd and the last time forever.

Part of the reason that the locals have risen up so rapidly against the regime (well that and all the corruption, trashed economy and Syrian military running a huge amphetamine dealing business!) is that they resent the flood of shiites from Hezbollah and Iran who have moved to Damascus and southern Syria in their 1000s over the last few years.

I reckon that right about now Russia is desperately trying to negotiate safe use of Tartus amd Khmeimim airbase, because without them they will struggle to support their troops propping up juntas in subsaharan Africa, sudan etc , the Russians tried to play both sides in Libiya so thats unlikely.

without it Russia suffers a big humiliation.

on the one hand Russia is getting a lot of money from their Africa operations, on the other, thet are stretched very thin in Ukraine and who knows what else will pop up in Georgia etc

HTS can probably demand a high price to let Russia keep those bases

HTS can probably demand a high price to let Russia keep those bases

What will Russia pay then with? Not dollars or euros or anything useful.

grain

Part of the reason that the locals have risen up so rapidly against the regime (well that and all the corruption, trashed economy and Syrian military running a huge amphetamine dealing business!) is that they resent the flood of shiites from Hezbollah and Iran who have moved to Damascus and southern Syria in their 1000s over the last few years.

Because their leaders (most in that region) were in no man’s land trying to mix western democracy with religious based population. Never going to work. The population generally see their leaders as corrupted “capitalists”.  For many generations most of the leaders in that region deluded themselves as the rightful leaders, but their religious foundation has always been weak. The people just went with the flow but after many generations, things got worst for them and the only fall back they have is to embrace their belief again; and leaders that are not providing the stability are rejected.

I reckon that right about now Russia is desperately trying to negotiate safe use of Tartus amd Khmeimim airbase, because without them they will struggle to support their troops propping up juntas in subsaharan Africa, sudan etc , the Russians tried to play both sides in Libiya so thats unlikely.

They don’t have to.  All they need to do is let them loose by supplying them with basic weapons and they will do the job for themselves or Russia etc.  Remember Russia has already resume diplomatic ties with Taliban.  Most of the fighters have already seen the success of the Taliban and will follow their approach.

without it Russia suffers a big humiliation.

No, just different tactics.  The only humiliation is NATO winning in Ukraine but that will never happen.

on the one hand Russia is getting a lot of money from their Africa operations, on the other, thet are stretched very thin in Ukraine and who knows what else will pop up in Georgia etc

Not sure how important the Africa operations is and will be better to let that be a problem for someone else.

HTS can probably demand a high price to let Russia keep those bases

Or simply cooperate in exchange for weapons so they can march south.

Yes, life was better for women when Russians were “in charged”

The Russians were brutal, especially in the rural areas with a campaign of ‘depopulation’ to remove the support to the insurgency.

One thing we noticed when we first deployed in 06/07 was how when flying over compounds the women would grab the kids and run. We spoke to our partner force liaison and he told us it was a learned behaviour from when the Russians invaded and would fire into compounds targeting anyone they saw.

So no, I’d argue they didn’t have it better under the Russians.

Outside the Syrian Ministry of Defense building. Assad’s soldiers have ditched their uniforms and fled.

Russian convoy being escorted to Turkey by Kurds driving American vehicles. Utter humiliation for Russia.

https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1865428057453908276

Unconfirmed report that a plane suspected of carrying Assad may have crashed.

https://www.axios.com/2024/12/08/syria-damascus-assad-regime-collapse

A Syrian Ilyushin-76 plane suspected of carrying Assad departed Damascus airport shortly before the rebels entered, according to FlightRadar.

The plane made its way northwest and then turned near the city of Homs and rapidly decreased its altitude before disappearing.

I reckon that right about now Russia is desperately trying to negotiate safe use of Tartus amd Khmeimim airbase, because without them they will struggle to support their troops propping up juntas in subsaharan Africa, sudan etc , the Russians tried to play both sides in Libiya so thats unlikely.

Russia will be negotiating with a Government on the receiving end of Russian air strikes and Assad’s various Russian supported misery. And that’s before you remember the decades of oppression from the Assad regime Russia aided with.

Seems like a hard ask.

The main thing I’d be looking for in some fantasy scenario where I was the new Syrian government would be kicking out as many of the foreign powers using Syria as a geopolitical pawn as possible. Including the US and Iran, hard to see Turkey’s influence being easy to shift.

This article describes the US presence in Syria, although I dont really know how reliable it is.

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2024-12-06/syria-american-bases-attacks-iran-16078798.html

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Strong rumours that Russian naval forces have been given the order to abandon Tartus (for realsies this time)

Latakia is important to Russia’s defence of the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base. It’s a port situated north on the M1 major road to Khmeimim and then Tartus, while Tartus itself is also on the M1 from Homs

It’s interesting that Russia’s ships began to sail from Tartus on the 2nd Dec, which was confirmed on satellite as empty on the 3rd, to take part in a “naval exercise” in the Med, as you do when a rebellion started a few days before.

Then you sail some ships back, as confirmed by Foreign Minister Lavrov from the Doha Forum yesterday.

Uncoordinated evacuation that left people/materiel behind? Defence of Latakia and Tartus? Deal?

Uncoordinated evacuation that left people/materiel behind? Defence of Latakia and Tartus? Deal?

I suspect covering a bit of everything, Tartus has successfully repelled several drone swarm attacks in recent years. negotiations with HTS or whoever is in charge will be frantic for Russia.

if Assad’s plane crashed prigorzhin style i wouldn’t be surprised, which country would want him?

Unconfirmed report that a plane suspected of carrying Assad may have crashed.

I’m going to go a bit conspiracy theory here, but was al-Assad in Syria during December?

He was in Moscow meeting President Putin during November according to Russia Telegram chat

Peskov said he had “nothing to say” on the matter. https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-it-wants-syria-swiftly-restore-order-after-rebel-attack-2024-11-29/

and reportedly flew back to Syria on Saturday 30th, the same day that rebels took Aleppo

He reportedly met Iranian officials in Damascus on 1st Dec

On 6th Dec Syrian TV reported that he’d gone to Iran, but later retracted the report…

It’s all reports without appearances in Syria.

Hmmmm

if Assad’s plane crashed prigorzhin style i wouldn’t be surprised, which country would want him?

When dictators flee they generally flee with a good chunk of the nations gold reserves and with Swiss bank accounts set up ready.

Add in a entourage used to living high and splashing the cash and sadly there are plenty of places that will have him.

When dictators flee they generally flee with a good chunk of the nations gold reserves and with Swiss bank accounts set up ready.

This one has been fleecing the country for decades so the funds are going to be in the tens of billions, maybe considerably more.

Russia is on the look out for funds, and as a previous ally, its possible he’s fled there.

I’m not sure a crash is why the aircraft went of radar, more likely it just switched its transponder off

I hear that John McEnroe wants to be a UN representative. But of course, he was told “You cannot be Syria’s”

Israel has attacked Syrian military depots on the outskirts of Damascus and elsewhere to put abandoned missile stocks out of reach of groups that might target them

Ukraine reports that the remaining Russian fleet has left Tartus

On 8 December 2024, the Admiral Grigorovich frigate of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Inzhener Trubin cargo ship of the Russian Northern Fleet departed from Tartus and headed to the Mediterranean Sea.

In addition, the Russians are transferring remnants of their weapons and military equipment from Syria’s Khmeimim airfield.”

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/12/8/7488240/

I hope for the sake of Syrian people there won’t be an extension of the civil war that sees internecine fighting between the various rebel/religious/ethnic groups. I hope that if they do take power HtS don’t turn out to be Isis/Daesh. I will take 50p of anyone’s money to bet that what Syria won’t be is a secular parliamentary democracy any time soon.

And I take HTS’s claims that they have left their ISIS views behind as seriously as I took Taliban2’s claims that they were now a moderate tolerant movement when they seized power again in Kabul.

And I take HTS’s claims that they have left their ISIS views behind as seriously as I took Taliban2’s

I’m inclined to be sceptical too. Also true that people on the ground seem to willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now at least.

My thoughts entirely Ernesto. I got a feeling of Deja vu watching them interviewed and give assurances that other religions would be treated equally and women wouldn’t be reduced to slaves and baby-carriers

Yeah, right

I hope that if they do take power HtS don’t turn out to be Isis/Daesh

You can stick lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. As Ernesto pointed out, this is exactly what the Taliban did and look how that’s worked out. These people are exactly the same ultra-hardline, fundamentalist loons, they’re just (temporarily) indulging in a bit of PR

It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.

I share the concerns but HTS in recent years have actually fought and arrested ISIS members, there are reasons to be hopeful apart from blind naivety.

Europe, Turkey and the USA all have a strong interest in a stable Syria so there is common interest and potential cooperation there, even if they’re unlikely to turn into Belgium overnight.

To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad’s fall there’s already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home.

Even if ‘the West’ is understandably wary, the Syrians themselves seem fairly hopefull; the Christian neighbourhoods in Damamscus were celebrating last night just like the Sunni ones.

Time will tell.

Al-Assad has reportedly turned up in Moscow and has been granted asylum there, well I never

I wonder how much ‘room and board’ he’ll be paying to Putin for that?

It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.

How would that work, do we just talk people to death. Literally just keep droning on until they lose the will to live anymore.

Israel has attacked Syrian military depots on the outskirts of Damascus and elsewhere to put abandoned missile stocks out of reach of groups that might target them

Any independent confirmation of that, or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?

To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad’s fall there’s already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home.

That was the only longer term positive I took from the news.

or is it a school or hospital, as usual ?

There probably aren’t any left that Assad’s regime or Russia haven’t already destroyed.  From Wiki:

After Russia began military operations in Syria, aerial bombardment intensified.[8] In 2015, there were more than 300 attacks on medical facilities by Syrian and Russian forces.[9] From May to December 2016, medical facilities were attacked about 200 times by Russian and Syrian forces.[10]

It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.

That’s happened quite a few times.

There probably aren’t any left that Assad’s regime or Russia haven’t already destroyed.

I’m sure the ones the Russians bombed were really terrorist command centres.

To me the biggest difference is the reaction of actual Syrians, when the Taliban took over, hundreds of thousands of people fled, with Assad’s fall there’s already queues at the borders of Syrians returning home

The same happened in plenty of places during the Arab Spring though. Plenty of disparate groups put their differences aside and united to throw out oppressive established regimes. Lots of people then found themselves then being ruled by hardline fundamentalists like ISIS which they would never have supported

I suspect we’ll now see the traditional infighting with those who are prepared to be the most brutal coming out on top.

One positive thing to come out of this though, whatever happens, is that Iran will have to reign in its endless regional shit-stirring. This is a major kick in the nuts for them. As it is for Putin and Russias as well

It would be nice to see an atheist faction take over for once.

Tibetans would disagree.

Didn’t Assad just humiliate Pootin?

I have no idea if this is true, it allegedly comes from an Iranian official source, but I have heard the suggestion that Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS were preparing to make a move but he allegedly ignored it.

Apparently when Aleppo fell the Iranians were prepared to use their troops to help Assad expecting him to ask for assistance but when the request never came they became convinced that he didn’t want to remain in power.

Iran then decided to engage in diplomatic talks with the rebels to secure the safe exit of their troops out of Syria. It does sound feasible to me that Assad decided to throw in the towel and spend his final days quietly in Russia.

The same source claims that it was Russia and the UAE who convinced Assad to give up power. Although I am not sure what benefit Assad giving up power brings to Russia. Other than perhaps allowing them to concentrate more on Ukraine? Although with Trump returning to the Whitehouse next month will that even be necessary?

common interest and potential cooperation there, even if they’re unlikely to turn into Belgium overnight.

Belgium is one of the least stable and united countries in Europe. The Flemish hate the Walloons.

It invented Stella, so just think how much that’s contributed to global conflict