So, Scotland, again…

It’s not that complicated. It’s just based on the Electoral Role

I said ‘tax’.

Basically anyone living here can vote, which kinda excludes overseas ‘Scots’…

Druidh.
If the law reckons 16 year olds are not mature enough to spend their taxes on alcohol, cigarettes, tattoos, knives, gambling, certain films and computer games or driving a car, then perhaps they should not be voting in this issue?

Northwind – Member
Northwind hereby challenges everyone who believes that Scotland is subsidised by the rest of the UK to prove it.

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06292.pdf –

A starting point NW!

As for the economic argument- it’s absolutely true that Scotland’s economy would run in deficit. But what you don’t hear so much about is that it is predicted to be a smaller deficit than England.

Not quite true – but the deficit would be smaller than some parts of England.

Probably shouldn’t be able to join the army or get married, for that matter.

b r – Member
The only economic approach that will work if Scotland becomes independent is a low-tax, small Govt one – and not to just replicate the State ‘infrastructure’ it currently has as a part of the UK.

The government employs 24% of the Scottish population, so that would represent quite a change to the status quo.

Will mr hammond have a new referendum on whether an independent Scotland will enter the EU if he wins this one ?

You think the Spanish are going to sit by and watch a region of a country declare independence on the basis of a referendum, then accede to them gaining EU membership?

I honestly don’t normally mind what a 16 year old can and cannot legally do. I would exclude them simply because on the whole I reckon they will give Salmond the answer he wants to hear.

To be frank, anyone who thinks they can predict economic conditions in 50 years is obviously deranged. Turns out, we can’t even predict them in 5 (ah let’s be honest, it turns out we don’t really know what’s going on today)

So why pay heed to deranged people who pretend to know who will have the bigger deficit then?

They’ve already said that they would.

Oops. IIRC, everyone living in Scotland will be offered the option of a new Scottish Passport or to remain a citizen of the rUK. It’s also very possible that some form of dual-nationality will apply (like NI/RoI).

THM- you’re right, I slipped there, should have said Britain rather than England.

It’s a very good link that, and does restate some interesting things- among them, that Scotland adds more value to the UK economy per capita than most of the UK (and the exceptions, London and the South East, are of course massively influenced by the centralisation of government)

Their analysis of the impact of north sea oil revenues is pretty fairminded and when taking the natural position (ie, Scotland’s oil is primarily Scotland’s) makes the case pretty well- lower defecit than the UK.

Wrecker- are you intentionally misunderstanding? The relative deficit argument is made based on today’s figures, not those of 50 years from now.

Wrecker- are you intentionally misunderstanding? The relative defecit argument is made based on today’s figures, not those of 50 years from now.

So completely irrelevant rather than deranged.

Wrecker- are you intentionally misunderstanding?

Maybe you should get some manners?

And you say this because…

<ooh, an edit. Manners? It’s a simple question. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I think your “misunderstanding” was tactical, but it’s possible it was simply daft.

Maybe the USA could help Alex out they seem to like other countries with oil!!

Northwind – Member
THM- you’re right, I slipped there, should have said Britain rather than England.

Not a bad piece that – no wonder other regions aren’t lining up for an independence vote though!!!

I would like to see the maths in some of the calc’s eg, I was surprised how little impact NS Oil made on a per capita basis – yes it makes sense, but still the impact in the case is still (for me!) a surprise.

I doubt the analysis uses by either side will be as balanced, eh?!? Oh blimey, two more years on this…

If Salmond gets his wish he will have to throw some massive sweetners towards Orkney and Shetland to prevent them walking away with all the North Sea oil revenues. They would have a very valid claim for independence themselves!

I’m going to step away before it gets a shit slinging contest but today’s economic conditions are quite obviously not relevant to something taking place in 2 or 3 years time as pointed out earlier. We don’t really even understand what’s going on right now.

I see. So the argument is that we can’t make any economic predictions at all?

athgray – Member

If Salmond gets his wish he will have to throw some massive sweetners towards Orkney and Shetland to prevent them walking away with all the North Sea oil revenues. They would have a very valid claim for independence themselves!

That’s where it gets fun, eh! And if RBS get back on their feet, brace yourselves for the People’s Republic of Gogarburn and South Gyle

You’re the one who made the deranged comment so if anyone’s being daft, frankly it’s you.

Did I forget to write “in 50 years”? No? Well that’s OK then.

To be frank, anyone who thinks they can predict economic conditions in 50 years is obviously deranged. Turns out, we can’t even predict them in 5 (ah let’s be honest, it turns out we don’t really know what’s going on today)

Just in case you forgot what you wrote.
Goodnight.

Er. Yes. So as your quote correctly shows, my “deranged” comment was
about 50 years from now. Thanks?

Meanwhile, back in the conversation…

Northwind – Member

among them, that Scotland adds more value to the UK economy per capita than most of the UK (and the exceptions, London and the South East, are of course massively influenced by the centralisation of government)

You need to get your facts right on how wealths generated in the South east of England and in addition on which areas of the country have more than 50% of the workforce employed by the government.

Might come as a surprise to hear something like 30% of the total tax take in the UK comes from the City of London – evil bankers, hang-em burn-em etc….

Genuine question now – whats the economic case for independence being put forward by the SNP. I genuinely have no idea, presumably its based on retaining 90% of the North Sea Oil reserves? What have they got to say about the cessation of the funding for Scotland from the Barnett Formula and the £80 billion debt of Royal Bank of Scotland to the UK?

And I’d be interested in your view on retaining the pound? Personally I think that’s a deeply flawed plan, independent nation states trying to use a single currency leads to fiscal chaos, as has happened twice in Europe previously.

druidh – Member
Zulu-Eleven » You think the Spanish are going to sit by and watch a region of a country declare independence on the basis of a referendum, then accede to them gaining EU membership?
They’ve already said that they would.

Hadn’t read that, and given the way Catalonia’s provoking the central government right now, I’d be surprised if it were current policy. Still, I could certainly be wrong.

Lets not forget the Greek view of accession to the EU for Scotland, as he bit of Macedonia still in Greece wants independence and they currently refuse to recognize the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (hence the silly name). Might set a dubious precedent they would have to follow.

Ah, perhaps I was unclear Gweilo- of course London doesn’t depend on public spending for its income! I think most people are still basically in touch with the fact that the City is a huge cash cow (I’m the last person on here that can talk about evil bankers, I was one!)

However, having the seat of government in London is a financial bonus for the area. And this is a nice example of how following the money gets so complicated of course, since the cost of government is rightly considered a national cost, but tax paid by those workers is localised to where they live. (and of course, numbers of public sector workers aren’t what counts here- earnings are)

This isn’t a criticism though- the government has to be somewhere. But it’s something that isn’t always acknowledged.

You also have to acknowledge in this sort of argument that where tax is paid isn’t always an indicator of where it is incurred- companies with their head offices in a particular place are often shown as being revenue for the city, but the incomes that they’re paying tax on are national. (I won’t even attempt to put numbers on this!)

I assume, for the “areas of the country that have more than 50% of people employed by the government” you must be slicing into some pretty thin areas? Would be interesting to see examples

England is just as welcome to secede from the UK as Scotland.

Good, so lets have the referendum on both sides of the border then.

Gweilo – Member

Genuine question now – whats the economic case for independence being put forward by the SNP. I genuinely have no idea, presumably its based on retaining 90% of the North Sea Oil reserves? What have they got to say about the cessation of the funding for Scotland from the Barnett Formula and the £80 billion debt of Royal Bank of Scotland to the UK?

And I’d be interested in your view on retaining the pound? Personally I think that’s a deeply flawed plan, independent nation states trying to use a single currency leads to fiscal chaos, as has happened twice in Europe previously.

Ah now the SNP aren’t going to trouble themselves with such trivial details 😉 (though, they do rightly point out that some matters will be the responsibility of the party in power after independance) Mostly it is party policy to waffle and bluster.

Yes, most arguments assume the 90% north sea oil split. Some still work with 100% but that seems unfashionable.

What do they need to say about the Barnett Formula? It’ll be no more of course.

The currency situation… Well, it’s just vagueness so far isn’t it. Personally, the idea of retaining the pound stirling seems full of problems, but I don’t have an informed opinion (and frankly there’s a lack of nonpolitical expert discussion of this, or at least as far as I’ve seen). Key point to be resolved, otherwise we’ll end up using returnable glass Irn Bru bottles.

The division of national debt seems more straightforward than most areas of controversy… A proportional split by population, leaving Scotland with about 80bn of former-UK debt (and rising). (and a proportional split of former-UK government owned assets such as RBOS, etc)

zokes – Member

Good, so lets have the referendum on both sides of the border then.

By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.

This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.

Just interrupting the debate to ask:

How can Scotland say “We’re shagging off but we’d like to keep sterling”? Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who’s currency it is? What’s to stop the new UK of EW&NI saying “bugger off and join the euro then.”

Yes

By all means you may have a referendum if you wish to leave the UK.

This is a bit like the West Lothian Question tbh. ie, a nonissue.

There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence. Unless that’s also a nonissue, why not make it like druidh’s inaccurate analogy and actually have it so that both halves get to decide. Otherwise it just looks like you want to have your cake and eat it. Again.

If you want a referendum on English secession, you only need to get enough folk to want it, for a political party to support it and put in in their manifesto, and for enough folk to vote for that party so that they win a general election.

In lieu of none of that happening, I can only suggest that maybe there just isn’t enough interest in this south of the border.

Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who’s currency it is?

Is England going to ban us from using the £ sign on our keyboards? That’s all a currency is, really, a shared symbol.

Just asking the question out of interest, that was all.

zokes – Member

There is a referendum going to happen about Scottish independence.

Yes there is. And there can be a referendum about English independance. But there can’t be a referendum to prevent Scottish independance (or, vice versa).

Druidh’s analogy is sound in that you can decide to leave a marriage, or not, but you can’t decide to keep one together if the other party wants to leave. It gets a bit wonky as there’s 4 members of this marriage, so one can leave and the marriage will still exist.

deadlydarcy – Member

Can a country choose its currency without the consent of the country who’s currency it is?

Yup… Frexample, Zimbabwe uses the USD, I think.

But in this case, I can’t see that as a workable route, there’s got to be consent and understanding I reckon.

As Northwind says, the currency question seems to be amongst the most vexatious.

Relying on the exchange rate and financial policies of a neighbouring country is not ideal (though some countries have successfully done this).

The future of the Euro is completely uncertain. Who knows, we may even say a two-rate Euro at some point.

Starting off a separate Scottish Currency is always a possibility. Many (new) countries have managed to do this – mostly with less in the way of natural resources than Scotland has, though few with the startup national debt either.

Another currency union is also a possibility. Perhaps with one or more of the Scandinavian countries?

The currency one is interesting – more so because Scotland has no legal tender anyway.

Mel Gibson yesterday hinted in a CNN interview that Hammond will be pushing for a Scottish Dollar.