Sir! Keir! Starmer!

Surely that is exactly what Starmer did when he was leader of the opposition…..he constantly attacked the government but then claimed that unfortunately Labour would have to do the same.

Not really, but never in the same actual sentence. Badanoch really is the greatest gift that Starmer could have asked for as leader of the opposition. She’s hopeless, but too smug and arrogant to even countenance the fact that she’s hopeless.

John Crace summed up her performance at PMQ’s pretty well in the Guardian. I’m sure he’ll be hoping he’ll be facing her at the despatch box for the next 5 years but I can’t see it. Not that who they replace her with will necessarily be any better

Waspi women hand KemiKaze a gift, which she fails to unwrap

So to sum up, instead of the promised growth the UK economy is now shrinking, inflation is now at its highest level since the start of the year, voters don’t like Starmer, and now up to a hundred Labour MPs might rebel against the government.

Read the article properly, there’s no vote – they don’t need one.

Maybe because of what I do for a living (Auditor), and my 40 years of working experience of doing it that I 100% realise that it’ll take years to just get a list of the stuff that needs fixing in the UK, never mind fixing it – and along the way stuff you’d prefer to fix properly in better times, just needs to be recorded and added to the ‘fixing list’ (in some kind of priority order).

I’ve also experienced renovating old buildings, and know, for example, that just painting over a damp patch is a recipe for future problems when the correct approach is to add it to the list and then investigate properly what’s causing it and how to (permanently) fix it.

The WASPI women campaign while it might have had ‘legs’ back in 2011 when Cameron quicken the pace of change is not something that Labour need to deal with, ever.

Their key complaint seems to be that they weren’t personally told of the changes.  I for one don’t remember a letter personally addressed to me tell me that my State Pension will now not come until 67 rather than 65, anyone else?

Read the article properly, there’s no vote – they don’t need one.

I obviously did read the link which I posted, but perhaps you didn’t read it fully before commenting?

“However, it is understood that the Liberal Democrats intend to press the government to hold a vote. Should that be denied, the party could then consider other means, such as as a backbench debate or opposition day.'”

That’s quite a lot of words for an experienced auditor to miss!

The issue of course isn’t whether there will be a vote or not, or even whether the government would lose it. The point of the comment is to highlight that after 6 months as PM Starmer is in quite a pickle.

Inflation is increasing, the economy is drifting towards recession, he personally is unpopular as is very much the Labour Party as a whole, and now to add to his woes there is talk of up to one hundred Labour MPs rebelling.

But perhaps you think everything is on track……..”Crises? What crisis?”

I for one don’t remember a letter personally addressed to me tell me that my State Pension will now not come until 67 rather than 65, anyone else?

I’ve been referring people to this for the last decade:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f02e640f0b62305b84929/spa-timetable.pdf

I’m in one of the groups that will have to wait at least an extra year over friends from the same school year, by virtue of being born after April (should I be fortunate enough to reach retirement age). It’s not unfair, just a case of being on the ‘wrong’ side of the line, is all.

”Crises? What crisis?”

Are we anticipating the Winter of Discontent 2.0? Anyway, balls to The S*n

Or, considering Labour’s huge majority, five years of discontent?

And ultimately perhaps an extremely contented Nigel Farage?

I’m in one of the groups that will have to wait at least an extra year over friends from the same school year, by virtue of being born after April (should I be fortunate enough to reach retirement age). It’s not unfair, just a case of being on the ‘wrong’ side of the line, is all.

Agree, I wasn’t complaining, just pointing out that the WASPI women’s key ‘complaint’ is that they want to be compensated for “not paying attention”.

<em style=”box-sizing: border-box; –tw-border-spacing-x: 0; –tw-border-spacing-y: 0; –tw-translate-x: 0; –tw-translate-y: 0; –tw-rotate: 0; –tw-skew-x: 0; –tw-skew-y: 0; –tw-scale-x: 1; –tw-scale-y: 1; –tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; –tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; –tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; –tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246/0.5); –tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; –tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; –tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; –tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; color: #000000; font-family: Roboto, ‘Helvetica Neue’, Arial, ‘Noto Sans’, sans-serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ‘Segoe UI’, ‘Apple Color Emoji’, ‘Segoe UI Emoji’, ‘Segoe UI Symbol’, ‘Noto Color Emoji’; background-color: #eeeeee;”>“However, it is understood that the Liberal Democrats intend to press the government to hold a vote. Should that be denied, the party could then consider other means, such as as a backbench debate or opposition day.’”

“Could” doing a lot of work there – are you seriously suggesting that the Govt pony up £10bn just so they don’t have the possibility of a non-event?

are you seriously suggesting that the Govt pony up £10bn just so they don’t have the possibility of a non-event?

I am seriously suggesting the Starmer has some serious problems, I thought that was self-evident.

The issue of course isn’t whether there will be a vote or not, or even whether the government would lose it. The point of the comment is to highlight that after 6 months as PM Starmer is in quite a pickle.

You obviously disagree.

I for one don’t remember a letter personally addressed to me tell me that my State Pension will now not come until 67 rather than 65, anyone else?

No but a check online on the government website tells me it’ll be at 66 and 3 months. I don’t remember being personally informed of any change in the law, it’s up to me to find out. I have had one letter from the UK government in 35 years and it took multiple phone calls, letters and form filling to get that. They know where I live.

I had a quick check on what Labour/ Starmer are doing to fulfill some of the key electoral promises. Housing starts are below half what is needed and don’t look promising as planning permission isn’t being granted for enough. The budgets being allocated suggest promises on health, transport and energy are fiction. Teacher pay isn’t going to attract 6500 new teachers and more current ones are leaving.

“Change” he said. Same old

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf

Meanwhile relations with Europe are shit and not improving, the economy is slowing and everything Starmer does looks suspiciously like austerity to me.

Sun’s out, think I’ll go ride a gee gee.

Agree, I wasn’t complaining, just pointing out that the WASPI women’s key ‘complaint’ is that they want to be compensated for “not paying attention”.

Don’t think anyone has any really disagreed with that point.

But maybe Labour politicians shouldn’t have been quite so keen to get their pictures taken with WASPI women if they never had any intention of paying compensation.

Keeping any politician away from a photo op – let’s be honest, most would be happy to be photo’d at the opening of a yoghurt pot, is probably too much to ask – even of Labour, traditionally held to a higher standard by their parsimonious critics, after the event.

Inflation is increasing, the economy is drifting towards recession, he personally is unpopular as is very much the Labour Party as a whole, and now to add to his woes there is talk of up to one hundred Labour MPs rebelling.

What did for the tories was rising prices of everyday goods, higher mortgage costs through high interest rates, and stagnant wages. Labour came to power promising that magical economic growth would solve those problems. It wouldn’t of course, but they look like they’re not going to deliver that either, so now they’re going to be stuck with all three major economic indicators either going in the wrong direction or not improving. The result will be people feeling much poorer in their pockets. Add that to the perception of broken promises and a belief that Starmer can’t be trusted to keep his word then he’s going to be in big trouble some time next year if nothing improves.

Keeping any politician away from a photo op – let’s be honest, most would be happy to be photo’d at the opening of a yoghurt pot

I have to say Nick you are doing a sterling job of reminding everyone that Labour politicians are no different.

I wonder if voters will pick up on that by 2029?

I suspect that it will be “man of the people” Nigel Farage’s message to voters. And that Labour will give him plenty of ammunition to make his point.

Keeping any politician away from a photo op – let’s be honest, most would be happy to be photo’d at the opening of a yoghurt pot, is probably too much to ask – even of Labour, traditionally held to a higher standard by their parsimonious critics, after the event.

Well then they could have done the photos and then said, ‘By the way, no way are they getting compensation.’

This is the problem with Labour’s election strategy of saying nothing but letting people read what they want into it.  People are going to assume that the ‘unspoken message’ means they are going to get what they want.

Labour promised nothing in the election but many on here were sure there were nudge nudge wink wink signals that meant they were going to do the ‘right’ thing once in power.  Some of us pointed out this was a very dangerous strategy because letting people think you’re on their side and then not doing what was implied is a really good way to ensure someone never votes for you again.  Do it to enough people and suddenly you will find no one is going to vote for you.  Better get ready for a turbo-nutter Badenoch/Farage government in 4 years time.

Quite apart from that, in this case, Labour did quite a bit more than just take some pictures:

The anger was compounded by historic clips circulating on social media of Labour ministers including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall and Ms Reeves making the promise to pay compensation.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-waspi-women-betrayal-b2666460.html

Agree, I wasn’t complaining, just pointing out that the WASPI women’s key ‘complaint’ is that they want to be compensated for “not paying attention”.

… for 15 years! That’s wilful ignorance. If we’re going to have to compensate people for that then the country will be bankrupt before the end of the week

The result will be people feeling much poorer in their pockets.

That was something which Trump hammered over and over again during the US presidential election campaign………”Ask yourself, are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?”

Despite how much of it was directly the fault of Joe Biden the answer to that question is widely seen as having been hugely instrumental in Trump winning the election.

On the subject of problems looming for Starmer, this might be one to watch

BBC News – Minister named in Bangladesh corruption probe

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3zqen209go

It’s one thing to be just tarred with the same brush as her aunt, but seems to suggest she was actively involved in setting up a deal with Russia. I’d have thought any connection to the old Bangladeshi regime would be thoroughly checked out before appointing someone as a minister.

Innocent until proven guilty, or stand down honourably pending any enquiry? I’d hope the latter.

It really is the government’s job to create economic conditions the fix the foundations.

Every LCE has been “pump-priming” (or laying the foundations) since the 2008 crash, and then again post COVID. There has never been at any time in history when there’s been more money sloshing about, as cheaply, and accessibly as there is now, we’ve had, more-or-less without any pause, permanent economic stimulus for the last two decades.

The result has been a massive distortion of what are supposed to be capitalist economies, where access to money has become ill-disciplined and grossly misallocated. The price of keeping zombie firms alive is cheap. Reality-distorting valuations of stupid start-ups has become the norm. Cheap money has created asset bubbles which in turn has fuelled deep inequality and capital concentration, and the answer from the likes of Richard Murphy? Govts should spend more money…I think it’s been demonstrated beyond any real query that it hasn’t worked.

I wonder if voters will pick up on that by 2029?

A week is a long time in politics. So far Farage has never failed not to **** up everything that he touches. Frankly I’m amazed that Reform has lasted as long as it has as a functioning entity, I wouldn’t bet serious money that it exists by this time next month, let alone 2029.

The proposed reforms to donations will possibly (hopefully) scupper a lot of the cash he’s anticipating over the next few years:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/18/starmer-protect-elections-foreign-interference-elon-musk

Yeah… remember that Reform will have to find candidates for every constituency who don’t have a photo of them giving a Nazi salute at a far right rally lurking somewhere.

Everyone, most of all the Tories, seem to be glossing over the fact that the main beneficiaries of the collapse of the Tory vote wasn’t Reform but the Lib Dems. Maybe because it doesn’t fit the present ridiculous ‘Farage will the next PM’ narrative

And before you say Reform/Tory coalition… Farage hasn’t managed a coalition with those within his own party that’s lasted more than 5 minutes

Cheap money has created asset bubbles which in turn has fuelled deep inequality and capital concentration, and the answer from the likes of Richard Murphy? Govts should spend more money

The problem is the money has been going to the top, rather than the general population. Murphy’s (and every other MMT advocate) point is that economic growth is generated from govt spending (mostly, if you ignore inward investment), and that it then needs to be taxed back, and fiscal policy should be set to reclaim the money from those who can most afford it. That’s what’s not happening. Where we’re at now is that the govt spends money into the economy, it goes directly into the pockets of financiers, bankers, billionaire industrialists and multinational corporations, and then they are not taxed accordingly. The result is crumbling public services, stagnant wages for the vast majority, and ballooning wealth among the top 1% of asset owners. The answer isn’t for govt to spend less, it’s to tax the rich more.

The answer isn’t for govt to spend less, it’s to tax the rich more.

Very much this. Talking of the problem with Labour and it’s present awful comms (who on earth is meant to be in charge of that?), they’ve totally failed to make more of Kemi Badanochs statement this week. She is advocating a flat rate of tax which means the rich would be taxed far less and the poor considerably more. So they’ve nailed their colours to the mast on that, which Labour should be gleefully pointing out

billionaire industrialists

Like James Dyson? Moaning about how he’s losing his tax break on the only asset he can’t offshore… his vast estate of farm land.

So far Farage has never failed not to **** up everything that he touches. Frankly I’m amazed that Reform has lasted as long as it has as a functioning entity, I wouldn’t bet serious money that it exists by this time next month, let alone 2029.

That is an impressive level of optimism considering what has been happening across Europe and the United States. And a significant departure from the apparent stw consensus that British voters are stupid and racist.

 I wouldn’t bet serious money that it exists by this time next month, let alone 2029.

I take it that you haven’t heard of the “serious money” coming to Farage from across the pond?

I would have thought that facing up to political reality rather than placing your fingers in your ears whilst reciting lalala would be the most useful way to go forward?

The answer isn’t for govt to spend less, it’s to tax the rich more.

The answer (in a capitalist economy at least) is to let things fail. The financiation of everything has meant that risk is non-existent, and it’s easier and cheaper for businesses to play the market to ‘grow’ their worth through share inflation rather than make profit from the things they’re supposed to making or doing. Close that, and force business to become risk takers again. You want the economy to grow? There’s argument that Govts should stop trying to stimulate it – becasue it can only act as a non-risk distortion of any market it enters, and concentrate on the things that are in its wheel house, reforming universities, refunding local govt, prison reform, court reform, NHS re-funding etc etc.

For example: Thames Water should be allowed to fail, and the Govt should step in after the fact, rather than rewarding bad investment decisions and corporate greed by either bailing it out or nationalising it (buying it)

 would have thought that facing up to political reality rather than placing your fingers in your ears whilst reciting lalala

the view of Farage being the author of his own downfall is entire consistent with his behaviour thus far. far from being fantasy, it’s recorded historical fact. You’re the political-catastrophe porn addict, not me.

Everyone, most of all the Tories, seem to be glossing over the fact that the main beneficiaries of the collapse of the Tory vote wasn’t Reform but the Lib Dems. Maybe because it doesn’t fit the present ridiculous ‘Farage will the next PM’ narrative

Or maybe it is because that claim isn’t backed up by any obvious evidence?

https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-11th-dec-2024/

Our new Voting Intention tracker finds a close race between Labour, Reform UK and the Conservatives. 

I haven’t heard much talk about Farage being the next PM btw, where are you hearing that?

Although the possibility of a Tory-Reform UK government with Farage having a Cabinet post is no more ridiculous than Donald Trump becoming the next US president.

You’re the political-catastrophe porn addict, not me.

I am not daft enough to predict political developments, although apparently you do. I suggest possible outcomes and never committing myself beyond probabilities.

On that basis I suggested pre-general election that in all likelihood Labour would win a huge landslide majority but that the Tories would not end up sub one hundred MPs. Is that what you  bizarrely described as political-catastrophe porn?

It’s early days yet but all the evidence suggests that dependant on how well Labour preform for the next 4 years Reform UK are likely to do rather well in 2029.

Fascism/the Far Right needs three things to thrive, one of them is that the threat which they pose isn’t taken seriously and is dismissed.

The other two are economic instability/crisis and people to scapegoat.

The problem with the FindOutNow poll (Lab 26%, Reform 25%, Con 23%) is that it’s a single poll.

Most recent polls show that Labour is still ahead of Reform, but only by a small margin. So while it is too early to say that Reform is beating Labour, it is nonetheless snapping at the heels of both Labour and the Conservatives.

Watch the local elections in May, full article here… https://theconversation.com/is-reform-really-pulling-ahead-of-labour-polling-expert-on-what-to-really-make-of-farages-supposed-lead-245794

For example: Thames Water should be allowed to fail, and the Govt should step in after the fact, rather than rewarding bad investment decisions and corporate greed by either bailing it out or nationalising it (buying it)

So you think the 16 million people who Thames Water supply should be left without tap water while the govt and financiers figure out what happens after they’ve gone out of business? Did you also think the banks should have been allowed to fail in 2008? I never had you down as an economic armageddon fantasist.

And as for nationalising TW. The govt could do what they did with Railtrack. They have the power to mandate a sale without any compensation to shareholders, all they need to do is pass the necessary legislation.

And meanwhile…

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/dec/19/water-bills-for-households-in-england-and-wales-to-rise

Water Nationalisation is the only way out of this mess. Do it one region/company at a time, just as for rail. There’s no excuses. Delaying the first one (obviously TW) isn’t in the benefit of the public… and changes to regulation and increased bills will just delay the inevitable… it’ll still need doing in 5 years time. The government should start the legislation process now… even if they use “just in case” as the reason/excuse for doing so.

The problem with the FindOutNow poll (Lab 26%, Reform 25%, Con 23%) is that it’s a single poll.

Well it reflects what all the other polls are saying, ie, that Labour, the Tories, and Reform UK, are all somewhere in the low twenties, in terms of share of the vote.

A point made here in which the averages are calculated:

UK General Election Polls

https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election

Well it reflects what all the other polls are saying, ie, that Labour, the Tories, and Reform UK, are all somewhere in the low twenties, in terms of share of the vote.

Absolutely, with a +/- 3% tolerance, which is why local elections in May might be a better indicator. That depends on turn out and voter engagement though

With respect I suspect local elections in May to be quite a poor indicator of how people are likely to vote in a general election.

I fully expect Reform UK to do extremely well in next year’s local elections reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with the main established parties, but I don’t expect that level of support to be mirrored in any subsequent general election.

Nigel Farage’s various political parties have generally done well in non-parliamentry elections but hopelessly badly in general elections. Voters regularly see a vote for his party as a protest vote but haven’t, until now at least, seen him as a serious politician who could be trusted with real power. Although voter desperation might be changing this.

In the 2013 local elections ukip received 22% of the vote beating the LibDems. In the general election two years later they received only 13% of the vote.

Local elections are seen by voters as an opportunity to punish the governments, I expect Labour to get slaughtered next May.

With respect I suspect local elections in May to be quite a poor indicator of how people are likely to vote in a general election

Absolutely.

The experts will look at correlations in numbers moving from this party to that in May, polls, data on the groups of the electorate who don’t bother to vote, etc and see patterns that may be a better indicator (or not). The problem with polls is that they rely on people being truthful, voting less so (although you can cast any vote you choose, including a spoilt vote)

I expect Labour to get slaughtered next May

Absolutely.

They’ll have had a year from their election to show how little preparation for Government that they did in the preceding four years: Strategy. Policies. Risk assessment of those policies. Communication of those policies. Outcomes.

Nothing

(I’ve agreed with you in consecutive posts, I’m going to lie down 🙂 )

And before you say Reform/Tory coalition… Farage hasn’t managed a coalition with those within his own party that’s lasted more than 5 minutes

They’ve never had the potential to challenge for real power up until now.

1 out of every 6 voters back in July voted for Farage’s opaquely funded racist rabble.

And ‘they’ also coalesced to devastating effect in June 2016 where the usual shackles of FPTP were removed as Cameron’s arrogance combined with his spinelessness. Given the right conditions, these people will throw their lots in with each other.

Given the right conditions, these people will throw their lots in with each other.

IMO binners remark concerning lack of far-right unity is a valid one. Certainly in the UK the far-right have a very long history of squabbling and forever falling out with each other, and that extends to the more respectable blazer wearing neo-nazis of the Nigel Farage ilk.

Ukip only ever managed to win control of one local authority – Thanet, it should have been a showcase example for them but within a very short time they had lost control due to squabbling and people resigning from the party.

If the current level of support for various parties was reflected in a general election I would definitely expect a Tory-Reform coalition. It doesn’t of course guarantee that it would be a stable and effective government, on the contrary that is highly unlikely imo, but I don’t see that somehow makes it more palatable.

The number priority is to stop the far-right from exploiting the failings of neoliberal governments, as they have in much of Europe and the US, by offering voters real hope and real solutions.

Fascism/the Far Right needs three things to thrive, one of them is that the threat which they pose isn’t taken seriously and is dismissed.

The other two are economic instability/crisis and people to scapegoat.

There are FOUR things they need; #4, enough voters to believe that they’ll be at least not worse off AKA “what’s the worse that could happen” as a Leave voting pal said to me in 2016.

The number priority is to stop the far-right from exploiting the failings of neoliberal governments, as they have in much of Europe and the US, by offering voters real hope and real solutions.

I think you mean “offered voters hope and solutions”, nowhere do I see them offering “real hope nor real solutions”.

This sounds about right.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/20/starmer-labour-failures-disaster-committee

Amazing how quickly the Starmer project is collapsing. The labour right landed us with Boris Johnson because their ‘ideological purity’ wouldn’t countenance a left leaning labour govt. Now they’re going to deliver us a Farage govt for the same reasons.