Seeing as this is currently breaking Facebook…

I AM 1/3 OF A FISH

FTFY 😉

Technically the answer is 1/4 because the wife is bathing the dogs not the puppies. Real world answer is 1/2 because m/f is the same as f/m.

The question was written by somebody who is one dimensionally very clever. Sorry but in the real world m/f, f/m is the same thing.

Hi, bye the way. Long time lurker who couldn’t resist.

I must be missing something. If the shopkeepers wife turns up with 2 freshly washed dogs for the customer, and we know at least one is a boy, are we really saying that he can possibly walk away with 1 boy and one girl dog, OR walk away with 1 girl dog and one boy dog, and these are considered as 2 separate options?

Similarly I have a 50/50 chance of having a son and a daughter or a daughter and a son??

The fact that these are separate options seems to be the premise of the question. I would have thought that when it is confirmed to the customer that one is a boy, and he chooses to buy them, he has a 50% chance that he will walk out the door with 2 boy dogs.

My head hurts. I will be dreaming beagles now in my sleep.

right!  im defo out now, and im only posting again when its been proved that im right!! 😀

Bye then!

The first time I seen a similar puzzle on here it did my head in as I thought 50/50 then after a bit of reading up on it I got why it’s 1/3.

are we really saying that he can possibly walk away with 1 boy and one girl dog, OR walk away with 1 girl dog and one dog, and these are considered as 2 separate options?

No, we are staying at least 1 is a boy we just don’t know which one is. The first dog she looked at the second.

Nobody asked us to identifywhich dog was going to be which sex. So 50% or you’re mad.

Nobody adkedus to identifywhich dog was going to be which sex. So 50% or you’re mad.

Good night down the pub?

It is only 1/2 if you fix the order…

We did this a couple of years ago, but at that point it involved children… not buying them obviously, but in that question the answer depended on how the question was asked/answered…

If for example in this question the wife had said something which fixed the sex of one of the dogs, by saying the biggest was a boy, or something like that, then the probability of that dog being a boy is 1. At this point the people saying the answer is 1/2 would be correct.

However, the question is specifically worded to avoid that answer, it is a probability trick often used to demonstrate how sneaky probability can be. So in this case the wife’s answer does not tell you anything specific about either dog, just about the pair of dogs in general. All you know is that one dog is a boy. So is it the biggest dog? Or is it the smallest?

Without the wife’s information the chances that both dogs are boys would be 1/4. Does everyone agree with that?

So, starting from there and then taking the wife’s information into account, it tells us that out of the 4 options, we can ignore the one which has no boys. So, how many options are now left?

Out of those that are left, how many of those have two boys?

Come on you Monty Hall spouting people, do the logic with just two doors.

I could explain it to you, but I couldn’t understand it for you 🤗🤗

Don’t let maths get in the way of actual logic

Worng way round.

Anyone want to buy a couple of beagles? One of them is pretty traumatised as it thinks it’s three dogs of indeterminate gender. Mathematicians need not apply.

Good night down the pub?

Awesome. Issue of the paper to bed and the down to steak night at the Bear with the daughter of a friend and her mates. Who all add up to less than my age.

https://www.instagram.com/amalia_thorslund/?hl=en

Not sure if trolls are trolling now,

probability of taking two male dogs is 1 in 3, ie MM MF FF but as we know one dog is male already then 1 in 2 chance ie MM or MF (the chance the second dog is male is 50/50) you can ignore the first dog it’s irrelevant now

I could explain it to you, but I couldn’t understand it for you 🤗🤗

Well let’s start with your bit and I’ll try to catch up. Monty Hall, 2 doors. GO!

Keep fighting the logical fight sadexpunk 😀 I’m with you all the way. One dog is now accounted for

No, it isn’t. That’s the crux.

Cougar, I fear you posted this question knowing fine well the answer and the confusion it would cause

You are correct on both counts and it’s already exceeded my expectations.  Posted at 10pm and it’s hit three pages in an hour.

I can explain Monty Hall too if anyone would like?

I AM A FISH

Rimmer, is that you?

Ok Skeptics – if you are still not convinced of the wisdom of the 1/3 do this little practical test…

Take two coins and flip them.

Note down if you get two heads or a head and a tail in separate columns

Every time you get two tails discard the flips as invalid

Carry on until you have got say 50 valid pairs of flips. You could do less but statistical anomalies will become less of a thing if you do a good number of them.

Count up how many two heads you have got and how many a head and a tail.

Report back on your findings

And weep!

Monty Hall.

For the uninitiated, the premise is that you’re on a game show.  There are three prize doors, behind one is a car and behind the other two is a goat, and you’re invited to pick one.  The host, who knows where the prizes are, then opens one of the other two.  He reveals a goat and asks if you’d like to change your mind.  Do you?

—

Your initial choice is one out of three.  The key here is that that the host will always then reveal a goat.  So opening the door doesn’t provide you with any new information, you already know that one of the other two is a goat because there’s only one car.  So imagine then that this door isn’t revealed at all; the choice then becomes, do you want the door you’ve chosen, or both of the other two?  You’ve got a 1/3 chance vs a 2/3 chance, switching your choice is the best call.

I’m only flipping one coin because that’s all that is left and I’m from Yorkshire so flipping two is out of the question 😉

I’m only flipping one coin because that’s all that is left

You’re only flipping one coin because you’ve changed the question to support your answer.

behind one is a car and behind the other two is a goat, and you’re invited to pick one.  The host, who knows where the prizes are, then opens one of the other two.  He reveals a goat

I think you’ll find he can only reveal half of one (very large) goat as there is only a single goat mentioned in the first sentence.

Mathematicians need not apply.

Oooft. Mathematicians are not statisticians.

One uses logic the other produces random numbers out of thin air to support their arguments down the pub.

probability of taking two male dogs is 1 in 3, ie MM MF FF but as we know one dog is male already then 1 in 2 chance ie MM or MF (the chance the second dog is male is 50/50) you can ignore the first dog it’s irrelevant now

probability of taking two male dogs is 1 in 4, ie MM MF FM FF but as we know one dog is male already then 1 in 3 chance ie MM or MF or FM as we’ve ruled out FF.

Oooft. Mathematicians are not statisticians.

They’re all the same to me. One person with leather elbow patches is as good as the next 😉

Come on Cougar, Monty Hall but only 2 doors. Cos that’s all we’ve got. So either you can make it work with 2 doors unlike anyone else on here or it has no relevance to this problem.

Convert I agree with what you have said. That is true, but if you toss 2 coins out of my sight, then I ask you to confirm if at least one of the coins is a head and you say at least one of the coins is a head, what is the chance that they are both heads?

One person with leather elbow patches is as good as the next

I thought that was geography teachers….

it has no relevance to this problem

It’s another probability question this time of how change increases your odds depending on what you know

Yep, we know the answer 50%.

Convert I agree with what you have said. That is true, but if you toss 2 coins out of my sight, then I ask you to confirm if at least one of the coins is a head and you say at least one of the coins is a head, what is the chance that they are both heads?

1 in 3

I’m not sure why some of you are struggling with this. I’ve put the two spun coins in my two hands. We know at least one of them is a head but we don’t know which so I just do it at random. When I reveal them to you the one in my left could be a head and the other a tail, the one in my right a head and the other a tail or both could be a head. They would have to film three different versions of the scene for each different possible answer.

Please tell me I can drop one of these pennies for you soon.

Yep, we know the answer 50%.

Nope.

Cougar can we put a bracket around your answer

1 in 3 ie MM or MF or FM

id say the answer is MM or (MF or FM)

the bracketed part gives the same answer ie one male one female doesn’t matter which way around so 50/50

1 in 2

As regards your coin tossing the first coin has already been tossed and it landed heads (male)

you then have a 50/50 chance of landing the next coin to make it head heads or heads tails..

why do you make it far more complicated than it is

Come on Cougar, Monty Hall but only 2 doors. Cos that’s all we’ve got. So either you can make it work with 2 doors unlike anyone else on here or it has no relevance to this problem.

I’m not sure what you’re saying.  But yeah, Monty Hall has but a passing resemblance to this problem, I only mentioned it because a couple of folk asked.  It wasn’t directly related to my OP.

But why did they cross the road?

So come on and bring the Monty Hall logic on a two door two option problem.id really like to know. Back from the pub now so ready to learn.

Cougar can we put a bracket around your answer

No, because you’re changing the situation to fit your solution.

As regards your coin tossing the first coin has already been tossed and it landed heads

We’re tossing both coins simultaneously.  We do not know that one specific dog is male, rather that either one (or both) is.  That’s the crux here.  You don’t know that your first coin landed heads, you just know that one of them will.

So come on and bring the Monty Hall logic on a two door two option problem.id really like to know. Back from the pub now so ready to learn.

I’m happy to try, but I don’t understand what you’re asking.

So we have 2 dogs. One is male. What is the option for the other dog as we know it can only be male or female or is the original dog a quantum dog (thank you Antman and The Wasp) that can suddenly change gender? Maybe some of you should get down the pub,

As regards your coin tossing the first coin has already been tossed and it landed heads (male)

you then have a 50/50 chance of landing the next coin to make it head heads or heads tails..

why do you make it far more complicated than it is

Errrr!

So we have 2 dogs. One is male. What is the option for the other dog

That’s not the question being posed.  Read it again.

So we have 2 dogs. One is male.

Which one?

Yes I know the one with dick which dog did the wife check?

Oh cougar I think it’s time for sleep.

your coins isn’t 1 in 3 you are taking tails out of the equation leaving 1 in 2

with that. goodnight ..