Scottish politics thread

2026 is a lifetime away in politics, the SNP need to just get back to working out how to govern properly and reduce internal strife, pretty much like every other government!

Matt, would you be happier if the government limited pay increases to public sector workers like, err, teachers?

Yes. Mrs_oab didn’t want the pay increase. She’s top of the payscale, and frankly we can live in a nice place and do nice things on her part time wages. She would earn more than me if full-time.

Her and my view is a) it’s the conditions of teaching that is the issue, not lack of pay b) there was going to be cuts to pay for this and c) a focus was needed on the poorest in our society.

Don’t think this is down to UK government

It is.  They control the scottish budget.  any scottish tax raising powers are tiny and designed to be unpopular / unusable

I expect we may see a change in government…

Pretty certain.  The SNP need a spell on the back benches to recover their mojo and sort out the simmering battle between left and right

~Expect a labour / tory coalition

~Expect a labour / tory coalition

Never gonna happen, I’d put a fish tea at Nardinis or Fishworks on it.

Yes. Mrs_oab didn’t want the pay increase. She’s top of the payscale, and frankly we can live in a nice place and do nice things on her part time wages. She would earn more than me if full-time.

Her and my view is a) it’s the conditions of teaching that is the issue, not lack of pay b) there was going to be cuts to pay for this and c) a focus was needed on the poorest in our society.

laudable though those views are, the re won’t be many who even with those views simply donate all the extra income to the needy! (Which does have the advantage that you can decide how it’s spent).   Whilst she may not need/want the money right now – pay rises matter because they also affect your pension.  Having the ability to afford to quit work early is a genuine luxury – especially in professions where the rest of the conditions are crap.

Teaching unions may well be registering an official dispute with COSLA and the SG by lunchtime on Monday. COSLA and SG have been essentially ignoring the issue of a pay settlement this year since January, despite an agreement at the end of the 2022 industrial action that a settlement would be negotiated and in place before 1 August 2024. One excuse is that they were too busy negotiating with other sectors.

Sounds like amateurs unable to plan ahead. I don’t hold the teaching unions in very high regard either.

Looks like the Scottish government were looking to a spending boost from westminster to cover shortfalls.  Now Reeves is continuing with austerity they are in big trouble with the 22 billion hole and spending cuts meaning a lower scottish govwernment budget not higher hence big troubles making the books balance which Scotland has to do unlike the rest of the UK

laudable though those views are

It was self preservation to.

One of the reasons for her job being cut has been to pay for the other teachers pay rise in the local authority. So a pay rise has cost her.

Across classrooms for the next few years you will now see fewer teachers and fewer classroom assignments. You will see early years hours cut.

While I get that people want more money, it’s going to make the conditions they work in much harder.

Never gonna happen, I’d put a fish tea at Nardinis or Fishworks on it.

My bet is that labour will be the biggest party but even with the lib dems will not be able to get close enough to a majority .  What will they do then?  Given the precedent on councils they will make a deal for tory support

My bet is that labour will be the biggest party but even with the lib dems will not be able to get close enough to a majority .  What will they do then?  Given the precedent on councils they will make a deal for tory support

the same as the SNP currently do, and have done in the past – rally support on a case by case basis rather than simply whipping stuff through a coalition.   A pact with the tories would be political suicide in Scotland.    There’s not enough media attention of councils for your average punter to know what goes on there, and each one is slightly different anyway.

I’m not sure that Scottish tories will do that well anyway – will in part depend which leader they elect both north and south of the border and how well SKS manages to pin the blame for Labour “pain” like tax rises and service cuts on the tories mismanagement.   Assuming the tax increases in the budget are Inheritance and Cap Gains those may not hurt average Scots as much as those in the SE so if they manage to manipulate the media that could play well.  If he taxes pensions then I’m sure swinney will be quick to point out it’s a U.K. not Scottish decision.  (FWIW I would do all three and abolish the plan to protect assets from care costs – they SHOULD be able to find a message that resonates with ordinary people who don’t have enough wealth to worry about these things).

the same as the SNP currently do, and have done in the past – rally support on a case by case basis rather than simply whipping stuff through a coalition.

I don’t think they will be close enough in seats to do this even with lib dems.  thats my bet.  SNP have only been one or two short or a majority.  I think labour will be 10 – 20 short even with lib dems.  Thus they will not get stuff thru without SNP or tory support

I’m coming round to the notion that the SNP will again win the most seats at the next HE (I think Starmer is poisoning the water for Sarwar). Who forms the next government will then come down to how much Labour want to showboat. If they keep voting against a SNP First Minister then they are basically aligining themselves with the Tories at that point. If they put forward their own candidate then they’ll likely need Tory support to get them elected. I guess the Tories could refuse to do so, at which point some sort of electoral stalemate ensues. In a perfect scenario, SNP need Alba to form a government :-)

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24540930.poll-salmond-relected-labour-take-power/

In a perfect scenario, SNP need Alba to form a government :-)

I think given their form they would be doing well to retain their single seat given they haven’t retained, let alone won, any in an election to date.

I don’t think they will be close enough in seats to do this even with lib dems.  thats my bet.  SNP have only been one or two short or a majority.  I think labour will be 10 – 20 short even with lib dems.  Thus they will not get stuff thru without SNP or tory support

it changes the dynamic – but even if you are 10 short you can still get “good stuff” done.  The tricky thing is the budget, but other that that unless your policy is bonkers some other assortment of parties will vote/abstain to ensure they aren’t ridiculed for blocking it.  Salmond’s first term was a  47/129 minority with no formal coalition.  Obviously the greens will not be falling over themselves to help the SNP this time round – but if they think the alternative is tories in coalition they might be willing to abstain where necessary.

I’m coming round to the notion that the SNP will again win the most seats at the next HE

I’ll be surprised.  Needs quite a turnaround IMO  I think the SNP will lose a fair few seats but I also think labour are close to their ceiling.  20% core vote and 20% floating ish

Lots to happen between now and then tho for sure but I think the SNP will ( perhaps rightly?) be blamed for the coming cuts.  I think the SNP overspent with an eye to a generous budget from Westminster :-)

Salmond’s first term was a 47/129 minority

They did have support from both Greens and tories – Goldie wanted the Scots Parliament to work and got a bit out of them

The SNP will be blamed for cuts but will point to the number of folk also complaining about cuts in England and Wales. Those are obviously the fault of the UK Govt so shifting at least some of the blame will be easy.