Recession nearly over!

Green shoots of recovery on the way.

The comments came as Barclays announced it was to cut 2,100 UK jobs, Jaguar Land Rover said it was cutting 450 staff and administrators of music chain Zavvi announced it would close a further 18 stores, with the loss of 353 jobs.

Discuss

is it me or do the Tories seem to be doing a fine impression of a petulant teenager with it’s fingers in it’s ears

WRONG

WRONG

NO

DON’T WANT IT

YOUR SO OLD FASHIONED

Its always darkest before the dawn ?

Is it me or is this Labour govenment trying to spend it’s way out of a crisis using money it doesn’t have, just like the last Labour government?

To everyone that voted for them last time – Thanks a million. Now look at the mess you’ve got us into.

Oh yes because Labour caused a world economic slump didn’t they, the bastards. However shit Labour are, at least they aren’t the tories – does anyone actually remember the 80s and early 90s?

The banks were in crisis because they spent and lent money they didn’t have. That amount is nothing compared to the huge huge problem labour is getting us into. If they don’t stop soon us, our children, their children and maybe their children will have to payback this huge burden they have laid upon us.

If you can’t see this they you are very very stupid. Look at Argentina and the mess they got into, I just wondered when the money printing will start?

I suppose if you look at it from a geological perspective and timescale then the recession IS almost over.

Oh yes because Labour caused a world economic slump didn’t they

Not sure anyone claimed that, but they can be judged on how they try and get us out of it.

Labour certainly didn’t help the economic slump by running a budget deficit during good years. If they weren’t so stupid and saved a little (like the tories would have) then we would be in a far better position right now.

How many times do Labour have to cock things up to stop people voting for them ?? I am amazed who votes for these clowns ! If it was a world recession why has the pound become so weak against dollar and the euro ??

People seem to enjoy the illusion that our government actually has some kind of major influence on world economic systems, spose it makes them feel better for some reason. Gordon Brown took the credit when conditions were good, now he’s taking the blame for them being bad – when he had very little to do with either situation.

I wonder when Brown’s five economic tests will be fulfilled….

Well we should have joined the euro then eh? Which obviously the tories would have done.

He is not taking the blame when it is bad. He is blaming the global crisis! Yes there is a global crisis and the crisis in the UK is linked to that, but anyone who has studies economics knows that there are 10 year cycles. So we are due a downturn, so he should have saved so he can boost the economy via fiscal stimulus WITHOUT having to borrow and borrow.

Our government has a huge influence on the UK economy, they are probably the greatest spending power. But this great spending has to be paid for, you support labour now then you can be blamed for crippling the economy for years, for higher taxes and for the fall of the pound.

Who was the chancellor over the last 10 years, and dues to the multiplier effect it takes a long time for any decisions the government make to effect the economy. He lived of the Tories running of the economy and the mess we are in now can be blamed on him.

The USA can afford to borrow, they can sell oil and gold to fund it, Gordon sold our gold and we have very little oil. If the UK runs out of money all they left is to print.

If you want to start talking about selling off national assets… BTW I’m not saying GB hasn’t done things that might have made the crisis worse, and I think new labour are ****, but the level of blame he is receiving is ludicrous. And where was the tories supposed financial wisdom on Black Wednesday?

Only a Labour government could accumulate huge debt in the "good times" Remember the quote " No more boom and bust" What a bunch of morons !

One of Gordon’s core beliefs seemed to be to save money in the good years to cover the bad ones. Didn’t really work out did it?

I’m pretty sure the nationalized industries that the tories sold off were not national assets, they were government failures. They were inefficient, overstaffed and cost a lot to run. Coal was being hugely subsidized compared to the cheap stuff from abroad and so was iron. If they were viable then private companies would be mining as much now as they were before.

Selling off gold at its lowest price was not a good idea, the amount lost on Black Wednesday was nothing compared to the stupid spending labour are spending at the moment, what about the propping up of equitable life, do I get compensation in my shares fail? Maggie T and Mr Lawson wouldn’t stand for this.

She didn’t say the recession was nearly over.

What andym said. probably not wise words at the moment but I think she’s right, looks like some confidence is returning to markets gradually, comapnies are restructuring and looking for a way forward. I think the jobs market has still got some washing out to do, so it will be meaningless rhetoric to many…

If you can’t see this they you are very very stupid. Look at Argentina and the mess they got into , I just wondered when the money printing will start?

Yes exactly, why don’t you look at Argentina alwyn ❗

It was the Conservatives in Argentina with their loopy right-wing "free-market" policies which screwed up the Argentine economy. It was years of privatisation, deregulations, and finally tight (IMF mandated) government spending, which led to the catastrophic collapse of it’s economy and the greatest debt default in human history.

Then at the height of the crises in May 2003 Nestor Kirchner become President of Argentina. Immediately he abandoned the failed right-wing policies and embarked on a classic ‘Old Labour’ type programme. Since 2003 there has been widespread re-nationalisation, tight regulations reintroduced, and massive government spending.

For five consecutive years (between 2003 and 2007) the Argentine economy grew by at least 8.5% a year. Unemployment fell from over 20% in 2002 to around 8% now. Poverty fell from 55% in 2002 to 18% now.

Of course Argentina will be effected by the global recession, she can’t do much about shrinking markets for her exports for example, but the Argentine economy still managed to grow by 7% in 2008, which is a long way from recession.

And also of course, how she would now be riding this global recession if she was still following the failed Conservative policies which caused her catastrophic collapse in the first place, doesn’t bear thinking.

Yes indeed, look at Argentina.

I’m with grumm!

Alwyn you have a selective recollection of the 80’s/90’s. I was there where you?
With regard to coal production of the 80’s it could have been mined and given away for free and still made a profit if it had been given the same subsidies as North sea oil. The decision to close the mines was a political one based on the increasing power of the trade unions, not an economic one.

With regard to the multiplier the way you refer to it indicates you dont know what it means. It is not a static thing it is dependant on other factors within the economy consequently the delay between government spending and the impact on what you and I perceive is variable.

If you have studied economics (unless you are a Monetarist) you will understand the paradox of thrift. This means rational individuals should save during bad times but Governments should spend. If Governments do not spend now (and almost every European country agrees on this point including Europes largest economy, Germany) then the recession will be significantly worse and will last a lot longer. The Conservatives ridiculous macro economic policy of "purse string tightening" may appeal to the daily mail readers but it would be disasterous if it where to happen.

The recession of the 80’s I recall was less based on external factors than this one and the economic experts in power then responded by fighting inflation at the cost of jobs and raising interest rates to over 15%. They were raised twice in one day!!! Cant believe they are giving lessons today!

Printing money is a rational economic strategy, if done wisely.

However dont let that fact get in the way of an opportunity to compare our country with Zimbabwe and Argentina!

Nice one Ernie!

Love this line Alwyn:

I’m pretty sure the nationalized industries that the tories sold off were not national assets, they were government failures.

What would you call those industries now? I’d call it a fantastic money making machine to the detriment of the population it supplies services to.

New Labour’s not great, but I find it laughable that a change of Government to the Tories will somehow make it alright.

Oh yes, Nice one Ernie.

Although Maggie was magnanamous in allowing us to buy shares in the companies we and our parents had supported through our taxes, the share owning democracy, what a joke that was.

Well our family business is just about go to tits-up, so there are no green-shoots here. More like the banks have come around and poured weedkiller everywhere!

Our industrial estate is dead, and I’m speaking to no-end of companies that are nearing collapse.

the-muffin-man
(soon to be bankrupt)

Good luck fella.

Oh yes because Labour caused a world economic slump didn’t they, the bastards. However **** Labour are, at least they aren’t the tories – does anyone actually remember the 80s and early 90s?

2009 is going to be much much worse than any previous recession, the worst period is just starting!

does anyone actually remember the 80s and early 90s?

Sure. I voted for Maggie on the back of her performance.

5thElefant – Member

does anyone actually remember the 80s and early 90s?

"Sure. I voted for Maggie on the back of her performance."

.

‘Maggie’ didn’t actually stand for election in the early 90s

Which suggests that you weren’t paying much attention to what was going on.

Who we are going to borrow and to spend our way our eh?

We are all screwed big time now like it or not and I know who I am not voting for next time.

😯

the-muffin-man
(soon to be bankrupt)

Shit. I’m really sorry to hear that Tim. I guess short of drumming up some new business there’s nothing to be done?

Hey, come on guys, we all know it’s Robert Peston’s fault really.

we all know it’s Robert Peston’s fault

Something we can all agree on.

First sign the credit crunch is easing…

3 months ago me and my wife tried to move flat but Halifax refused the overdraft extension to cover the deposit in the short term.

Tried again yesterday and overdraft was granted instantly online no questions asked. Hopefully the banks start easing their choke hold on us all it should pick up!

(On a side note, I’ll have a Garage now, move in the bikes!!)

Not Peston’s fault at all.

It’s all Bowie’s fault. All of it.

How dare you suggest the credit crunch is easing when people out there are losing their jobs and I might have to sell one of my holiday homes and send my kids to a slightly less posh public school? ;p