Predicting icy roads – any clever tricks?

Just as I’m trying to get into a routine of early morning/fasted road rides to build up some mileage, the freezing temperatures arrive!

I’ve never quite got my head around when freezing temps = black ice, e.g. what duration and how cold is required?

Next week on Tuesday and Thursday MET office seem to think it will slip below 0 briefly overnight after a damp day on Monday, and will be 0/1C by them time I get out at 6am.

I guess I just need to have the indoor turbo setup on standby but any clever hacks for predicting black ice?

Ta

It normally gets noticed shortly before you’re hip hits the tarmac.

It normally gets noticed shortly before you’re hip hits the tarmac.

I still remember someone on here, I think, saying that they were riding to work when somebody rode past and shouted ‘I See Badgers!!’ Our hero was puzzled until they hit the floor because of Icy Patches.

One winter, I came off on ice on every day of the week. One of my colleagues asked why I was continuing to ride in and I replied that I can’t crash every day. I did.

black ice can occur from 4’C, so it sounds like the timing of your rides ain’t great at all. Only other options are off road or indoors…?

Under trees – more likely to be damp patches that may freeze.  Breezy day – gaps where the breeze can go across the road ie gates – more likely to freeze.  You canb get a decent guess from the colour of the road surface.  White has grip – so large whitish patch with a smaller black patch in it – likely to be black ice.  dips in the road where colder air can pool

But really – very hard to predict

As above, you basically can’t, even if you know the route very well, where the sun hits and when etc.

I used to have a 30-40 min commute to HWU outside Edinburgh and despite knowing the route well and being careful I’d still get caught out a couple times a year and hit the deck.

On memorable time I properly cheesgratered myself on rough tarmac and had to go buy some TCP on arrival at work and then scrub everything clean…others arriving after me commented on how the showers stank of disinfectant :-/

When I was commuting at 0600-0630, once the “feels like” forecast was +2C or colder the night before, I’d usually fit the 45Nrth Gravdal tyres (that came from CTBM 8 years ago) to my fatbike/hybrid and keep them on until around spring.

On the odd days when the temp was unusually warmer, I’d inflate the tubes to more typical 38mm slick pressures of ~60 front and 70 rear.

In my experience, if its a road you’d want to ride on there’s much more chance of black ice, main roads are almost always fine.

Be aware of temps dropping suddenly over night, after rain, or rain coming in early if it’s been really cold in preceding days.

I’ve crashed on black ice twice, once on a minor road when it was just cold and had been raining, the other when it really should have been gritted, raining in the evening and forecast to go down towards freezing in the early hours. Neither was fun, but the main road one was scary and painful. These days its either on the turbo or off road when it’s cold.

https://youtu.be/KnFAJu8WUzc – This is the main road crash on Gopro, was doing about 25mph when the tyres just disappeared with no warning.

black ice can occur from 4’C, so it sounds like the timing of your rides ain’t great at all. Only other options are off road or indoors…?

Funny, I had 5°C in my head as a red flag for black ice, can’t remember if that was personal experience or maybe I asked the same question on here last year!

I had written off going off-road just for the perceived faff factor and the likelihood it would end up not being the ‘easy’ miles I was looking for, but I guess it’s worth a try, even just doing laps of the local golf course maintenance paths!

the secret to those rides if you want to remain upright – is to fit the wintermarathons and not be bothered.

I do struggle a little with the shoulder seasons – ending up riding round on ricecrispies on dry warm tarmac for 2/3 rides. but once winter sets in – its just not worth the risk .  – YMMV i’m in the north east.

Councils publish gritting maps eg

https://www.essexhighways.org/roads-and-pavements/winter-travel/salting-routes

I just stick to these on winter mornings.

the secret to those rides if you want to remain upright – is to fit the wintermarathons and not be bothered.

£60 a pair for the cheaper variants in a 35mm, I guess I could stick them on the singlespeed and just accept those rides might be a little harder than ideal for Z2 purposes lol!

Quite like that idea…

I live in a fairly rural spot, and it is utterly lethal some days, we just don’t leave the house, even walking the roads not an option

We has cars abandoned everywhere on the last bad day, several gone straight through hedges.

Zwift never seemed like a better idea

Councils publish gritting maps eg

Good shout, I’ve used those in the past but as prawny sort if alluded to, our council basically doesn’t grit any of the roads I would want to ride, and the roads they do grit would be too dangerous for my liking on a dark winter morning.

Swerve it entirely – off-road route or get on the turbo. Even the hardest, gnarliest roadies park it up when ice is on the roads – you’ll bounce more often than not but a broken wrist or collarbone is your season bolloxed, hip is worse.

In my experience, if its a road you’d want to ride on there’s much more chance of black ice, main roads are almost always fine.

Had almost an entire ride come down on a patch of black ice on the A6 north of Matlock about 25 years ago…20 odd of us sliding down the road on various bits of anatomy and reynolds tubing! Thankfully just after some roadworks, so only going 10-12mph while we regrouped. No injuries to report…

Funny, I had 5°C in my head as a red flag for black ice, can’t remember if that was personal experience or maybe I asked the same question on here last year!

The black ice warning on most cars is programmed to be on below 5°C, but it depends on a few factors.

I fit studded tyres when the nasty weather approaches and take them off around February ish when it looks like the worst is past. This is on my commuting bike which often has kids on.

Otherwise I pay attention to the weather forecast knowing that is often 3°C colder in my suburb than the city centre forecast and have a thermometer outside the house (transmits to a display indoors) for a quick reference when I get out of bed.

off-road route or get on the turbo

Yeah… Much as I like the idea of winter-proofing the singlespeed I had resolved to STOP spending money on the bikes this winter… Got to work with what I’ve got, cheeky laps of Gleneagles golf course in the dark then haha

Temperature alone isn’t reliable – needs moisture for the ice. I’ve commuted well below zero and been fine.

We had a disastrous club ride a couple of years ago. If ice is forecast we cancel rides or go later. Forecast suggested it would be 2-3° at 8am, but there was some light rain in the night, and something just made me think an extra hour in bed would be a good idea.

Apparently the roads were fine when folk rode to the ride start for 8.30, but the temperature suddenly dropped and by 8.45,  4 of our 5 ride groups had crashed, 3 riders were hospitalised. It’s known as Black (Ice) Sunday. We are now over cautious with weather forecasts, and this is why.

I just don’t get why you’d even risk it if there was the chance of ice? Especially as you have a turbo at home!

our council basically doesn’t grit any of the roads I would want to ride, and the roads they do grit would be too dangerous for my liking on a dark winter morning.

same here in south Lanarkshire. If it’s been close to or below zero overnight my rule of thumb is no road ride until air temp on our outside thermometer is 4 degrees or above.

My Wattbike and Zwift sees most of my riding mileage from November through March.

I find that going to the hassle of fitting studded tyres to my commuter means there will then be 8 frost free weeks. Taking them off and then refitting seems to reset the counter too. The noise of the studs on the tarmac really starts to get to me…

I do ride on a non-treated shared use path so sometimes it can (in truth) be incredibly slippery. I know it is icy when I see dog walkers behaving like penguins.

I just don’t get why you’d even risk it if there was the chance of ice? Especially as you have a turbo at home!

Well hence the question really, I don’t want to risk it so am not prepared to go out if I know it’s icy.

However being able to ride outdoors, even if its dark or cold (easily mitigated by lights and clothing) makes it easier for me to stick to my very flimsy training plan. At this time of year I’m saving any hard rides for the weekend, so I can go out and enjoy smashing around in the mud on my CX bike.

Midweek I want to stick to easier rides (Z2, as is the fashion 😎 ). I hate doing easy stuff indoors, really struggle to do any meaningful time/distance. If I can find a way to keep getting outdoors it will guarantee I stick with the plan. Granted maybe if I some sort of VR platform with a smart trainer I might find easy indoor miles more bearable, but that would still cost significantly more than just sticking some ice spikes on the singlespeed!

At this time of year ice is less likely because there is still residual warmth in the ground. Later on in the winter, not so much. The key thing is to keep an eye on moisture levels. Even when its very cold, if the air has been dry then there can be surprisingly little ice. I used to commute at 05:30 in the morning & I only once got caught out. As above, main roads are your friend as well. Personally I wouldn’t risk a long training ride early in the day if its cold. Doubly so if the ride is in the dark.

I commute on the bike, so I swap over to the wheels with the ice tyres as the hint of frost. Did one day this week on them. Only takes 3 minutes to swap over. I’ve come off on ice before and it’s no fun.

I sympathise with the OP- I used to decline to road ride if the temperature was below 4 degrees here (in central Manchester) on the basis I assume this means the country lanes are probably more like 2-3 degrees.

But, as others have said, it became clear quite quickly that the temperature alone didn’t really mean much and my Strava feed would later be full of people’s road rides in the exact same lanes at the exact same times I had avoided going out.

So no answers from me really but I kind of take a policy approach now so if its 2 degrees or less here and its also been wet, I just plan something else- but this is mainly just to avoid 8hrs of procrastinating/see-sawing over my decision making in the preceding day as I find I just end up annoying myself and its easier to just call it one way or another early-on, and plan something different.

I try to convince myself that its thawed during the morning so ride in the afternoon. But I’m really a morning person so I often end up failing dismally endnote riding at all

In my experience, I feel like it’s something I’ve become better at predicting over time, but I couldn’t tell you exactly why. It’s the little details, temperature alone tells you very little. If it was raining through the night and temps have dropped below freezing, I won’t be going anywhere. Same for freeze, thaw, freeze cycles. Dry roads on crisps winter mornings, I’ll be straight out, just stay out of the shadows.

I’ve found myself sliding along the road a few times and I can’t say I could guarantee not to be doing it again. It’s always a risk a certain temps, but in very specific conditions that risk grows exponentially. Black ice is the worst because it so often occurs on days when the casual observer least expects it. 

Not a universal solution, but if I HAD to ride on potentially ice roads, I’d try to use roads I know that have rough tarmac as opposed to newly resurfaced roads with smooth surfaces and/or ride in any gritty sections and/or any strips of dirt alongside the road.

Obviously, this depends on local knowledge but might be helpful if you’re caught out on a late afternoon ride in dropping temperatures…

No way would I deliberately go out (on road) early morning in marginal conditions – mountain biking can be a lot less stressful in those sort of conditions!

Be aware of temps dropping suddenly over night, after rain, or rain coming in early if it’s been really cold in preceding days.

That’s it. I use the 5 degrees after midnight metric, if it’s already wet or been raining overnight. As the autumn progresses, everything cools down. You can get black ice in late October/early November (Cambs) but generally the risk is higher from late November through to end of February. And yes, I’ve done plenty of black ice body surfing. Some of it funny and some bloody painful…

It’s not just black ice, there are days when cold and damp smoother surfaces are super greasy. Tyres let go really easily

Leafy mulch, mud and diesel, horrible on a damp surface

That’s before you factor in other road users

Be very careful on bridges, they don’t get the warmth from the ground so can have ice when everywhere else is fine.

Heavily trafficked roads nearly always fine, if unpleasant. Crossing unsalted footpaths or carparks can catch you out even when roads are fine.

My approach is take mtb and head off road. CX bike wouldn’t give me much more confidence on icy tarmac than a road bike.

Be very careful on bridges, they don’t get the warmth from the ground so can have ice when everywhere else is fine.

Yeah, there’s a bridge i use on the way to work, some mornings it’s the only icy bit, some cold mornings it’s like an ice rink and lots of cars struggle to get up (or down) the ramps.

Riding the council gritting map routes may ensure that you get pebble dashed and blinded with road salt, it’s not fun.

Don’t ride when it might be icy.

As a paramedic I usually end up taking 3 or 4 people to hospital who “just had to get their training ride in, even though it’s cold out” every winter, and I know I’m not alone.  Usually for broken collar bones or hips, but also head and face injuries

Another really important thing to remember (possibly THE most important thing) is that most paramedics are not cyclists and they WILL NOT (!!!!!! ) let you take your very very expensive bike in the back of the ambulance no matter how much you beg (I usually do unless you’re really badly injured) and won’t hang around for your partner to drive out and get it.

I just ride the gritted routes as per the council map. It also shows a trace of where the gritters have been. I’m in Ayrshire and we are lucky in that there is a decent selection of gritted roads that are quiet.

fit the wintermarathons and not be bothered.

They do sound like sizzling bacon so don’t be surpised if you’re extra ravenous after a ride

Three wheels good. Upright or recumbent. Some cheap trikes about at the moment.

Don’t ride when it might be icy.

I’ll never forget the February commute I did about a decade ago, up nice and early, lovely new thermal Bibs on. First tumble was 10 foot from the front door, by the time I got to the office I’d been off twice more including one proper high speed tumble on a busy roundabout that really should have been gritted.  The knees on my lovely new Bibs were shredded…

Lessons learned:

1- Sometimes (if you can) choosing not to ride isn’t the worst option.

2- It’s slightly better, financially, to destroy a pair of knee warmers than a pair of 3/4 bibs.

3- Riding fixed is great fun, except on ice..

There’s a good reason Zwift is more popular during winter…

THE most important thing) is that most paramedics are not cyclists and they WILL NOT (!!!!!! ) let you take your very very expensive bike in the back of the ambulance no matter how much you beg

The one time I was scooped up (RTA: bike vs car not winter), the crew put my boik in the back and it was stored in the next bay in A&E. Sadly, the damage was terminal and the poor old gal was put to sleep…