Missing Malaysian Aircraft – is it possible…

WSJ has changed their story slightly but added a video with reporter

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914904579434653903086282?mod=trending_now_1

video http://live.wsj.com/video/flight-370s-engines-ran-long-after-contact-lost/16D14B1E-C784-4A97-915D-77236154C2C6.html?mod=trending_now_video_1#!16D14B1E-C784-4A97-915D-77236154C2C6

“Corrections & Amplifications
U.S. investigators suspect Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 flew for hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, based on an analysis of signals sent through the plane’s satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of onboard systems, according to people familiar with the matter. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said investigators based their suspicions on signals from monitoring systems embedded in the plane’s Rolls-Royce PLC engines and described that process.”

So a completely different story from “people familiar with the details” and “one person briefed on the matter”, now that there previous version has been discredited. Yep, I’m convinced.

I also think it’s a little unfair to blame the Malaysians for all the conspiracy theories and rumours being published from unofficial sources

I wouldnt underestimate the dodginess of the malaysian government they regularly score highly in business corruption leagues and a Malaysian friend (who is ethnic chinese) is quite disparaging of the government.

So many armchair experts passing their in depth opinions on aircraft accidents and the pilots flying them.

Wonder how many of you are actually airline pilots?

Two, I think, and a few more working in the aircraft industry.

I’m baffled to be honest. So many overlapping systems yet still no answers. This is the ultimate Swiss cheese scenario. Many years of aviation experience both at work and up home yet every scenario we’ve came up with has a flaw.

those are some big pieces of plane, wing size pieces of plane, therefore they would have had to hit the ocean at relatively low impact for bits that big to be left.

Having smashed, chomped, chewed and exploded a passenger plane into bits small enough to pack into ikea bags…. a lot of a fuselage is pretty flimsy. The bit between the nose and the first passenger door is tough as hell though, just because of the way all the ribs are converging to a point – the result is that bit is probably stronger than its intended or needs to be. If you remember back to images of Lockerbie – that fuselage had popped like a balloon but the cockpit was all in one piece even after landing on solid ground. The wings are also spectacularly tough. The fuselage we chopped up with a set of jaws on a mechanical digger but the wings took semtex and a cocktail of other explosives and quite a few attempts to break up, they are a whole different species of structure than the main body of the plane.

So in incidents like AF447 the wings remained in fairly sizeable chunks

Of course the satellite images seemingly aren’t correct, I also doubt the wings would float

Looks like Boeing are also saying that data suggests the flight was still going for 4hrs after radar contact lost.

How could that be though, presumably to disappear from radar for 4 hours it would have had to have descended to a very low altitude ?
How low would it need to have gone ?
Obviously easy to disappear from radar over a large open ocean where there are gaps in coverage but between two countries where coverage would have been comprehensive ?

according to the Malaysian government, Rolls Royce releseased a statement saying they did not have signals 4hrs after the last contact

and the chinese seismic undersea bump was 90 minutes after last contact

Having smashed, chomped, chewed and exploded a passenger plane into bits small enough to pack into ikea bags….

I’m pretty sure you can fit an entire kitchen in an IKEA bag

US journalists (despite not being pilots) seem to be getting fed some interesting stuff

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/14/us-malaysia-airlines-radar-exclusive-idUSBREA2D0DG20140314

I say interesting as in the US has the technology and resources but obviously not the political will to take the lead – bit sad for the relatives

All three sources declined to be identified because they were not authorized to speak to the media and due to the sensitivity of the investigation.

I think that tells you as much as you need to know about that story.

Re the radar returns. I regularly ignore primary radar returns (think ww2 type radar) as there are always many on the screen caused by anything from weather to building site cranes etc. Once the identity of an aircrafts primary return is lost, it is very hard to re identify it unless you are in contact with the pilot. Normally we are using secondary surveillance radar which “speaks” to the plane but if the pilot turns off his transponder, all we have is primary, ie the problems above. If the primary radar coverage between Vietnam and Malaysia is poor, it could be impossible to track the aircraft.

As I said in a post earlier, there is a counter argument to every point raised, which is why we’re all scratching our heads at work.

So in incidents like AF447 the wings remained in fairly sizeable chunks

You know you’ve posted photos of the tail though, right…?

Obviously

Where do you work Cobrakai, out of interest ?

njee20 » You know you’ve posted photos of the tail vertical stabilizer stabiliser though, right…?

😉

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_stabilizer

Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-satellite-spots-floating-objects/2014/03/13/72688034-aa68-11e3-b61e-8051b8b52d06_story.html

“A senior administration official from the Indian government said Friday that the search team had targeted its efforts in the waters west of Malaysia based on a series of coordinates given to them by the Malaysian government, but he was not sure what data the Malaysians had that lead them to target those specific areas.”

Wrong trousers I work at one of two air traffic control centres. My company has spies everywhere!

Documentary on Sky 1 about it now although so far it’s really just going over all the previous (mis)information.

I pretty sure the BBC news just said that it may have flown for a further 4 hours, turned round and perhaps flew back over the peninsula towards some islands?!

WTF?!

Ex Pilot thinks it’s some kinda hijack.

Maybe it is just sat on some random island somewhere?!

Perhaps it’s becoming a real life lost? We’re all actually dreaming this and a polar bear will be along soon!

I’m going with hijacked, landed somewhere, hidden, it will probably be flown into somewhere 9-11 style at some point by total arseholes.

Official conclusion appears to be taht it was hijacked:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-investigators-say-jet-was-hijacked-20140315-34tll.html#ixzz2w0bpHPiZ?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=NC&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1680-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o

Its hijacked but where could they take it and why?

Mind boggling as there would be a demand by now.

Im going with a hijack but something went wrong enroute during its course change I.e a fight broke out.

N.Korea wouldnt do it- its full of Chinese nationals.

Im guessing its on the side of a hill somewhere.

North Korea would be about 4 hours away?

Interesting idea..off course then shot down by NK. I bet they have good surface to air missiles?

Unless N. Korea are involved and had the plane safely tucked up under cover of a large hanger before daylight arrived? It’s one of very few countries who could easily keep such a thing secret in this day and age. Also from the aircrafts last known position, it could have made its way to N.Korea entirely over the sea outside of any land based radar coverage.

It has seemed fairly clear in my mind after no wreckage was found after a couple of days searching, and the strange way in which the aircraft lost contact that the only possible option was a hijacking. Lack of wreckage or any form of crash site or crash witnesses would suggest that there’s a good chance that the aircraft is still in one piece somewhere and that this may have a lot longer to play out than we think.

Malaysian PM has confirmed at press conference that now believed plane continued to fly for several hours

“Mr Razak said the authorities are now trying to trace the plane across two possible “corridors” – north from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through to northern Thailand, and south from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean.”

from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26591056

Quite an eye opener is all this as how apparent modern big brother has failed quite spectacularly. Bet the yanks are feeling somewhat peeved their “know the last time he had a shit” spying kit hasn’t come up with anything.

Bet the yanks are feeling somewhat peeved their “know the last time he had a shit” spying kit hasn’t come up with anything.

Maybe it has but they’re not telling.

Well that’s another theory/conspiracy..

Back in my fun days I had a Subaru, it had a tracker. You could not turn it off. In theory you could find it anywhere in Europe. You could actually remove it if you got under the bonnet. Do aeroplanes not have something similar or is that just a bit “low tech”

Do aeroplanes not have something similar or is that just a bit “low tech”

Yes (the transponder), but you can turn it off, as seems to have happened. But I guess the engine monitoring transmissions stay on until the engines are turned off.(?)

Or maybe it was hijacked and flown until it ran out of fuel and crashed, like Ethiopian flight 961 – but with locked and armoured cockpit doors unlikely – i’m guessing that since 9/11 pilots have strict instructions that in the event of a hijack situation they should ignore the hijackers demands and call in the situation, even if passengers lives are threatened.

Or maybe a suicide attempt by one of the pilots like in Egypt air flight 990. Bump off the other pilot, turn the aircraft around, head out over the Indian Ocean for 4hrs before crashing. Passengers and cabin crew may have been blissfully unaware until the end.

Not sure I believe the conspiracy theory that it’s landed somewhere. Governments are inept and cannot keep secrets for long. Conspiracy theorists always credit government and government institutions with far more capability for keeping things secret that they deserve.

Yes I know of the transponder. But as you rightly say it can be turned off, WTF. I’d suggest that renders it somewhat useless. I appreciate planes aren’t usually pinched by two youths wearing hoodies, but perhaps something near the tail that can’t be switched off or got at other than in a bond style fuselage walk might be a little more appropriate!

Been asked before

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080911193807AAi5MGe

The problem is things go wrong, so the pilot must be able to isolate every bit of electrical kit from his seat. it’s no good having a transponder that’s on all the time if it fails and causes a fire because it can’t be isolated. (That’s based on what the ‘expert’ said on the BBC this morning.)

Not allowing it to be turned off seems like a great idea at times like this but a really bad idea when it goes wrong/starts smoking etc.