Libya no-fly zone, for or against?

You think the security services of UN member states have sound and reliable information on the matter trailmonkey ?

Well, surely you’ve got to assume that if we’re going ahead with the no fly zone, after the fiasco in your link, then the UK govt. are still sure that an opposition govt. in Lybia is likely to be one that they’re happy with. Surely they’re not that stupid ?

Ok, maybe they are.

You are suggesting some clear coherent strategic thinking on the part of the Western powers trailmonkey. And yet there isn’t a lot of evidence to support that.

Only a couple of days or so ago the US was opposed to a no-fly zone over Libya, why ? The situation was no less critical then. US policy for the region has for last couple of months, been remarkably inconsistent – zig-zagging all over the place.

The US was much criticised for sending mixed messages and being inconsistent during the crises in Egypt. Some of it is simply a characteristic of the Obama administration, which publicly says it is supporting one side, whilst privately supporting the other side. That strategy was remarkably effective in Honduras where the Obama administration had a highly successful coup. But much of it was simply because they were not fully in control of the situation and didn’t know what to do next.

The situation in the middle east and North Africa is out of control. Neither the West, the autocratic rulers, nor the demonstrators, have a clear plan and know what’s going to happen next. All are reacting to events and are making decisions on a day to day basis. All will make mistakes.

Because of the terms of the no-fly zone it will not have a huge implication on the outcome of the current struggles in Libya. At least it won’t be the decisive issue, other than it will probably stop Tripoli from gaining control of the whole country. It will not guarantee that the rebels will be successful in forming a government in Tripoli – despite the propaganda their support isn’t that extensive. What it will probably guarantee though, is a stalemate and that the war will continue.

The purpose of the no-fly zone is not actually that apparent imo. It certainly isn’t about saving lives though. Although the casualties figures to date are completely unknown, they are almost certainly not what rebel and western propaganda would like you to believe. There is no evidence that Libyan forces are deliberately targeting civilians other than rebel fighters.

Humanitarian agencies in one report claims the figure to be between 1000 and 200 dead :

“Since protesters began rallying against Gadhafi’s regime in mid-February, Libya has slipped into civil war, humanitarian organizations said. Heavily armed pro-Gadhafi forces have attacked rebel strongholds on land and by air. Rights organizations estimate 1,000 to 2,000 people have died.”

Ex-British air force head wary of strikes[/url]

If those figures are correct, it is remarkably low considering the situation and it suggests a “killing rate” lower than Egypt’s during their troubles. Bombing by the US will dramatically increase death – not reduce it, it’s not about saving lives.

So the reason for the no-fly zone is debatable imo. Although I suspect that the Arab League was probably motivated in part at least, in calling for a no-fly zone as a way of drawing the US into a regional conflict. The autocratic rulers who make up the heads of states of Arab League countries have always relied in the United states to keep them in power. Right now, they are all being threaten. Right now they need the US.

Note that today Saudi Arabia which was the Arab League that most pushed most for a no-fly zone, has announced that it will not take part in its implementation.

Arabs not eager to join military action in Libya

So it well be left to the US then. Handy for the Saudis.

Note too, that whilst the situation in Bahrain is highly critical and paid foreign mercenaries are being used by the government to suppress the opposition, the US is not calling for an immediate cessation of repressive operations. Hilary Clinton has merely urged “restraint on all sides”.

‘Restraint on all sides’ suggests that the opposition is as guilty as the government – a ludicrous proposition. The US, if it wanted to, could pull the plug on the tyrannical regime in Bahrain instantly. The US has far more influence on events in Bahrain than it has in Libya. And yet it does nothing.

How dare they trying to intervene in Dear Leader’s world.

😈

ernie_lynch – Member

How would you resolve this?

Well it would have resolved itself in the next couple of days without interference. The UN sanctioned interference will now guarantee that it will not be resolved.

so sitting on the fence is a strategy, are you a civil servant?

Gaddafi has also offered an amnesty to rebels in Benghazi if they lay down their arms, scaring them increases the chances of that be successful.

One of the reasons why Gaddafi’s forces have been so successful as they have swept through Libya, appears to be precisely because if rebels give themselves up they generally get to live – therefore many have surrendered without a fight.

history in the country shows that violent consequences always follow, remember revenge is a dish best served cold and not on 24hr rolling news channels, our dear leader certainly knows this

Recent events have shown that he still has huge support in much of Libya

mori poll?
or could hesitancy to rebel against 40 years of repression be understandable? could the selective imprisonment and torture of protestors be a factor? (or did the TV crew imprisoned make it up?)

I would be surprised if Tripoli readily accepts rule from Benghazi.

bollocks, the immediate violent repression of any protest in Tripoli not a factor? he has “lost” everywhere except his power bases and had to use violence to stop his overthrow by unarmed demonstrators, or is your memory too short to remember how this rolled out?

I have no idea how successful al-Qaeda has been in re-organising itself in the parts of Libya that Gadaffi has lost control, and I don’t suppose Western intelligence has either.

I’m really surprised you are not in a MI6 bunker to advise them, you seem to have in depth information that would have stopped them making cockups. Afterall you claim to have the same quality of information as they have

Speculating what will happen in Libya amounts to no more than crystal ball gazing….no one knows. But history has shown us that the West tends to get things terribly wrong on such matters. Wishful thinking is not enough.

back to sitting on the fence then 😉

Thank you for your point by point rebuttal of my post Big and Daft. Your diligent attention to detail is impressive. And don’t I look silly now.

So it well be left to the US then. Handy for the Saudis.

Note too, that whilst the situation in Bahrain is highly critical and paid foreign mercenaries are being used by the government to suppress the opposition, the US is not calling for an immediate cessation of repressive operations. Hilary Clinton has merely urged “restraint on all sides”.

‘Restraint on all sides’ suggests that the opposition is as guilty as the government – a ludicrous proposition. The US, if it wanted to, could pull the plug on the tyrannical regime in Bahrain instantly. The US has far more influence on events in Bahrain than it has in Libya. And yet it does nothing.

did they forget to copy you in on the strategy email and the conversations behind closed doors? not again surely? don’t they know it would stop cockups happening if they asked you first? quick someone let Obama know Ernies not in the loop! 😉

Your diligent attention to detail is impressive

I am not in your league of googling/ wikipedia searching, think pub team to your premiership level pedantry 😉

This thread is fascinating!

People on this forum I thought of as pains in the backside are coming across quite credulous.

Where-as others I thought were ‘alright’ are coming across as Media believing fools.

Why has there been no UN intervention in countries where this ‘supposedly’ killing of civilians has been reported.

I’ll **** tell ye, “It is because they countries are too powerful, or have limited/little resources”

I am no media believing fool … 😡

Fact. Everyone loves Dear Leader. Fact.

If you do not love Dear Leader you are a fool. Fool.

😈

Tiananmen Square?
Fool?

Well that’s the first plane downed over a civilian area. Pictures are quite dramatic. Lets hope it didn’t land on any occupied buildings.
(I’m assuming its a Libyan plane!!)

Just seen a Libyan “Government” (ie: Colonel Gadfly mouthpiece) spokesman saying “There is no attack on Benghazi” just as there are pictures of, yes, an attack on Benghazi.

Anybody remember “Comical Ali”? “We are slaughtering the Americans before the gates of Baghdad”! as right behind him – ooh look! – American troops and tanks advanced into the city.

Of course, this is all manipulation by the eviil Western media against the Dear Kind Leader. Isn’t it.

Pfft. Hitler was a very nice man too, according to some here in the thirties…

It seems their descendants are active.

Mr Woppit – Member

Just seen a Libyan “Government” (ie: Colonel Gadfly mouthpiece) spokesman saying “There is no attack on Benghazi” just as there are pictures of, yes, an attack on Benghazi.

Anybody remember “Comical Ali”? “We are slaughtering the Americans before the gates of Baghdad”! as right behind him – ooh look! – American troops and tanks advanced into the city.

Of course, this is all manipulation by the eviil Western media against the Dear Kind Leader. Isn’t it.

Pfft. Hitler was a very nice man too, according to some here in the thirties…

It seems their descendants are active.

You have a very selective memory Woppit. The rebels have been feeding the western media an endless stream of lies.

Firstly the rebels claimed that Gaddafi’s army was refusing to fight and that he was having to rely on paid foreign mercenaries. The western media dutifully reported this in all their news bulletins. The rebels claimed that these african mercenaries could be identified by there dark skin and that they had captured several, again the western media dutifully reported this.

It was however a lie. Gaddafi’s army is not refusing to fight, there are no foreign mercenaries, the rebels haven’t captured any, and none have been presented to the media. The western media has very quietly completely dropped the allegation without bothering to admit that it was false.

The rebels claimed that Tripoli was gripped by anti-Gaddafi demonstrations, and yet despite the western media being in Tripoli, there is no evidence if any serious disturbances, and no evidence of the army being deployed in Tripoli at all…….it was a lie.

The rebels claimed that government war planes were relentlessly targeting civilians, and yet despite the presence of the western media in rebel controlled areas, not one single example of an air strike which has resulted in the substantial loss of civilian lives has been reported….it is a lie.

The rebels consistently claimed that they had either repelled attacks by Gaddafi forces, or recaptured towns which they had previously controlled. And yet they were in fact consistently losing ground……it was a lie.

The rebels are every bit as capable of telling lies as the Libyan government after all, the truth is always the first casualty of any war.

And yet you conveniently choose to believe the obvious lies told by the rebels, whilst rejecting the obvious lies told by Gaddafi’s government. Why ? ……does deluding yourself that the rebels are incapable of telling lies somehow make you feel more comfortable ?

Is wading through the bullshit and looking at the situation from a realistic perspective too much like hard work for you ? You might well ridicule with references to “Comical Ali” Woppit, but it is you that’s coming across as gullible imo. I don’t pretend to know everything that is happening in Libya – no one can know that, but I am certainly not going to believe everything that one side tells me.

no UN intervention in countries where this ‘supposedly’ killing of civilians has been reported

If countries acted on the law past precedence – your argument would be simply brilliant. The reality is they don’t – which means your argument is actually very sh*t.

And having red all of Ernie’s previous postings I can only imagine his whole life is governed by the apathy and fear of doing something rather than the fear of doing nothing. Man would be rubbing sticks to make fire if we evolved our thinking like this.

so sitting on the fence is a strategy

of course not every time there is a conflict anywhere in the world we should pick a side and join in.
Mudsux Assuming I can infer from your post that you agree that the UN does not intervene everywhere there is conflict. How exactly does this make the argument that they dont interfere everywhere shit ? You may explain the reason they dont do this but that hardly negates the point that they do this.

And having red all of Ernie’s previous postings I can only imagine his whole life is governed by the apathy and fear of doing something rather than the fear of doing nothing

Clearly you have not read much of his stuff ernie is one of the few on here who does political stuff other than chat on here. Ad Hominem is a bit pointless better to explain why his account is wrong rather than just atatck him. I realise this will take a bit more intelectual rigour, good luck.

So are we enforcing action in Yemen where a rebellion is being put down ruthlessly? Bahrain?

steffybhoy – Member

Tiananmen Square?
Fool?

Yes, how dare they protest against the power of the Dear Leaders with foreign influence.

having red all of Ernie’s previous postings

I’m impressed with your commitment mudsux ….I don’t expect anyone to do that. Although I have to confess that I find you conclusion rather bizarre ……I’ve never been called a conservative who was happy with the status quo before.

And thanks for the supportive words Junkyard, I shall indeed be leafleting in an hour or so time, to publicise next Saturday’s demonstration against government policies.

So if anyone is in Croydon and wants to join us, we will be outside the Whitgift Centre (High Street side) from 12.30 pm. I’ll be happy to chat about Libya and the current situation btw.

Ist fighter shot down over bengazi http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12794589

I shall indeed be leafleting in an hour or so time, to publicise next Saturday’s demonstration against government policies.

In relation to Lybia or just their current ideological policies at home ?

Just interested and pleased to hear that someone somewhere is being proactive should it be the latter.

oh very funny,though I fear i may be crediting you with more intelligence than your posting suggest

http://marchforthealternative.org.uk/

will we see you there?

there are no foreign mercenaries,

none at all? not even the odd one? absolutely zero paid foriegn combatants on the Gaddafi side?

hope you passed that analysis to MI6, might stop another farce! 😉

The rebels claimed that government war planes were relentlessly targeting civilians, and yet despite the presence of the western media in rebel controlled areas,

seems odd, the the majority of rebels are civilians, are they not getting bombed? or if you are holding a gun/ driving a pickup are you no longer a civilian? if you are a dentist but have a gun and are in your own house and it’s getting shot at / bombed by Gaddafi troops are you a civilian? please clarify

not one single example of an air strike which has resulted in the substantial loss of civilian lives has been reported….it is a lie.

if it’s not on youtube it didn’t happen? not even one?

Tripoli was gripped by anti-Gaddafi demonstrations, and yet despite the western media being in Tripoli, there is no evidence if any serious disturbances, and no evidence of the army being deployed in Tripoli at all…….it was a lie

IIRC before it started the western media were restricted/ denied access to the streets and when it kicked off Gaddafi disappeared until the infamous umbrella broadcast, this was followed by the broadcast from within the barracks. Seems odd if there no disturbances as you claim, why not do it from a restaurant, oh he did after it all calmed down due to violent repression and the imprisonment and torture of activists (or is that a lie?)

The rebels consistently claimed that they had either repelled attacks by Gaddafi forces, or recaptured towns which they had previously controlled. And yet they were in fact consistently losing ground……it was a lie.

fighting in urban areas is “fluid”, control can ebb and flow, the reality is that both sides could be right at the same time

I don’t pretend to know everything that is happening in Libya – no one can know that

The western media has very quietly completely dropped the allegation without bothering to admit that it was false

in Tripoli at all…….it was a lie.

been reported….it is a lie

losing ground……it was a lie.

lots of “fact” debunking for someone who doesn’t know whats going on

anyway I hope that your hotline to the FO and the White House has been installed so they can get your credible factual assessment of the situation 😉

The French are dropping ordnance, now.

Ist fighter shot down over bengazi
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12794589

looks air to air, it was high for shoulder lauched missiles and there wasn’t intense ground fire

Enjoy the leafletting, ernie. Rest assured that our wicked, lying, manipulative government won’t be locking you up and torturing you and your relatives to death for disagreeing with it.

oh very funny,though I fear i may be crediting you with more intelligence than your posting suggest

❓

WTF

Big and Daft – thanks once again for having gone through my post and demolishing my argue point by point. As I have already previously stated, your attention to detail to my posts is both impressive and touching – I feel humbled …….. no really, I don’t deserve so much attention.

Just one thing though……..I know you claim to be daft, but surely you can tell the difference between me saying “I don’t pretend to know everything that is happening in Libya – no one can know that” and me claiming to know nothing ?

I am of course referring to this comment :

big_n_daft – Member

lots of “fact” debunking for someone who doesn’t know whats going on

Working on the premise that no one is that daft, I have assumed that you are merely twisting what I have said to satisfy your puerile desire to “point score”, as you seek to comprise your inability to provide an intelligent and reasoned argument by reducing everything to the level of playground taunts. And on that basis, I can barely be arsed to read your posts, let alone treat them with any meaningful consideration.

.

trailmonkey – Member

In relation to Lybia or just their current ideological policies at home ?

Just interested and pleased to hear that someone somewhere is being proactive should it be the latter.

I was of course referring to next Saturday’s demonstration against the government’s politically motivated spending cuts.

BTW, can I just mention that handing out flyers has never been my cup of tea, and today just reinforced that. Tomorrow we will leafleting door to door – a much productive activity imo. Not only will we be able to distribute far more leaflets, but they will be placed on someone’s doormat rather than trying to cram them in people’s hands as they rush about with their shopping bags from shop to shop. And more importantly, they might sit down to read them, instead of leaving them half screwed up in the bottom of their shopping.

Of course the one great advantage of handing out leaflets and why it tends to be done, is that unlike door to door, it gives people an opportunity to talk to you and discuss things and maybe get involved themselves. I also discovered that there appears to be a disproportionate of amount of ladies who are concerned with the government’s politically motivated spending cuts 8)

Don’t think he ejected in time ….

Just one thing though……..I know you claim to be daft, but surely you can tell the difference between me saying “I don’t pretend to know everything that is happening in Libya – no one can know that” and me claiming to know nothing ?

I am of course referring to this comment :

big_n_daft – Member

lots of “fact” debunking for someone who doesn’t know whats going on

Working on the premise that no one is that daft

so you know something

is your knowledge giving you the ability to determine that people’s points of view are based on lies?

so please enlighten us further with your knowledge

anyway is that hotline in yet, you seem to have better sources than the worlds media with your black and white assertions about what is not happening there

I was of course referring to next Saturday’s demonstration against the government’s politically motivated spending cuts

is the entirety of the cuts politically motivated or just the additional amount to what labour would have cut?

what were the Green party going to do about the deficit? Please tell us….

or are the questions

puerile

?

Gadaffi is a nutter. He’ll kill loads of Libyans to protect his rule.

big n daft have you thought about giving us your view rather than just explaining to us why you think ernie is incorrect. I assume you attack him with your petty digs as your own attempts to explain your own view are laughably poor- though admittedly you are bright enough to have realised this- chapeau but a bit pathetic TBH.

Lets face it we need their oil. So since we originally backed what appears to be the losing side, we now are going in under the auspices of saving the rebels and stopping an humanitarian disaster. Like we give a monkies what happens to these people! The UN should have gone in straight away rather than dithering, this just shows that Europe and the UN have no teeth. Better fill those Petrol tanks peeps 1.50 a litre here we come.

I merely note the it’s unsurprising that someone under the moniker “Ernie Lynch” defends the “revolution”, I suppose he’ll defend the collective trials and firing squads afterwards as well.

especially for Junkyard

The failure of the UN to be able to deal with fast evolving events is essentially due to it’s very nature. In Tunisia and Egypt the strong military infrastructure maintained stability and did the essential thing which is not to shoot lots of people. This allowed the political situations to develop and the changes to date happen relatively peacefully. In Libya the military was weak as Gaddafi was keen to ensure that history didn’t repeat itself. This meant that the essential stabilisation was missing and events developed to where we are now. Personally I feel there needs to be more international will to stop countries using significant military force against civilians, however the problem is how to do it.

The current intervention is arguably too late to stop a protracted end game where lots more people will die. Would a no fly zone on Day 1 or 2 have stopped it? I don’t know, but it would have set a marker where military force was seen to be a step too far for Gaddafi and may have stopped events unrolling as they are

Is the current action appropriate? Arguably you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Personally I feel that 24 rolling news puts some countries on the back foot in terms of decision making as there is the constant need to respond to inane questions live to the world who are getting the latest footage. I don’t think the UK government has run at this with glee, it has exposed a lot of issues with the defence review and the strategy behind it. Lots of Cdr Forisque-Smyth’s will be writing to the Telegraph/ Spectator telling of their disgust at the loss in capabilities, poor decision making and the rest of the “I told you so”. We also have the issue of “where” as Yemen is potentially on a similar path.

As for Bahrain, I hope that lots of diplomatic action is going on to stop the current response to the protests. The US needs to be asking all the “friendly” dictatorships what their transition plan is. Simply because they either do it now on the front foot or soon on the back foot, Jordan may be a good example of this.

As for what are the facts? Hell I don’t know. Everyone manipulates what is put out on the media and there are shades of grey. The intelligent programme about the manipulation of big news media in the run up to the gulf war shows that. At the same the stories about the “cockup’s” still get out. Do I have a list of “lies”, no I don’t. Do I have any certainties?
Yes, using the military to shoot unarmed civilians engaged in peaceful protest is wrong. We found that out the hard way.

Please feel free to use any of the following

petty digs

laughably poor

pathetic

puerile

your inability to provide an intelligent and reasoned argument

fill your boots! 😉

i would ordinarily but that post is a bit long and the washing up needs doing 😉
[teacher mode]Well reasoned and an overall cogently argued view. Keep up the good work [/teacher mode]
I dont really disagree with most of what you have said but is it not better to debate like this than just see who is the best at arguing?
it is no surprise that those who are best at arguing are often the best at reasoning as well. I prefer more of the later than the former but do clearly do both at times on here.
Cheers.

I see another medal on the way 🙁

is it not better to debate like this

yes but some debates end up with a variation of the usual rubbish and insults for those who disagree

when that starts I feel it’s best to review the certainties of peoples arguments 😉

am i allowed to say told “told you so yet”? 😉

I’m sure the Navy’s Tomahawks already have their targets picked 😉

http://www.singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/how-long-until-we-start-bombing-libya-then