It may have hit the fan in Ukraine – passenger jet shot down

slimjim78
I just found myself thinking for a minute what it would be like to be aboard a passenger airliner struck by a missile in mid air, and not die instantly..

Assuming you survived the explosion and subsequent high speed disintegration of the airframe, at FL300, the partial pressure of the atmosphere is only around 22kPa. Assuming you were fit, healthy, and not agitated (!) you’d have around 30sec of consciousness before you passed out.

In reality, there is a very high probability you’d be knocked unconscious very quickly by the G forces caused by the ejection from the remains of the airframe.

Whilst old tech IR “heat seeking” Ground To Air missiles would struggle to hit a passenger jet (because they use cool high bypass ratio turbofans, not “hot” turbo jets), the more modern radar guided missiles would have no problem, especially as in “Military” terms the ~550KTS cruising speed of the airliner is pretty slow.

However, it should also have been completely obvious from the size of the radar return that the target was not a military jet……… ;-(

Terrible 🙁

I reckon you’d be killed instantly or at least stunned by a 500mph blast of -80C air tbh.

Theory i have heard is that its pro russian rebels who have been given buk missiles by russian military. Same rebels who shot down ukranian cargo plane at 21,000ft two days ago

I recommend people steer clear of twitter to read up about this. Some pretty horrible photos popping up on there 🙁

Terribly sad, my thoughts are with the families 🙁

I hope international airlines will avoid the flight path in in trigger happy hi-tech capability war zone. 😡

Awful for those involved.

So can a bomb be ruled out?

Looks like the fuselage made it to the ground largely in one piece (by the compact impact zone), and doing a relatively low speed (both vertically (no crater) and forwards (small impact zone) so it probably not a catastrophic hit leading to a complete break up, just a “loss of control” or “lift”. RIP to all involved.

FunkyDunc – Member

Awful for those involved.

So can a bomb be ruled out?

One possibility but why in Ukraine / Russia? Nothing related to M’sia at all …

It’s either Ukraine/Russia that are trigger happy by the looks of things.

Looks like at least one engine was stopped at impact from the condition of the fan, so points to systems failure from the missile strike.

The fact the SR71 Blackbird existed means that SAMs can shoot down aircraft at 30k feet, and have been able to do so since the ’50’s. That isn’t very far for a missile unfortunately. Its not unusual for passenger planes to overfly war zones though. I’ve been flying over Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran over the past 6 years. also routine scheduled services have been maintained in and out of these countries. Makes me wonder what religious fundamentalists are sitting up and taking notice of this? Must be easier to get their hands on some SAM’s than a dirty bomb or trying to get a bomb on an aircraft. This is a disaster though, absolutely shocking. My heart goes out to those on board and their families.

came from this page, but I can’t access now due to pay wall

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4150129.ece

assuming it was shot down i suppose there are 2 possibilities

russian supplied rebels, thinking they were taking down another ukranian cargo plane (or fighter?)

or

ukranian government forces trying to get revenge on a russian plane for the planes theyve had shot down

coud it be proved either way?

Or Putin ordering it deliberately in response to increased US sanctions to send a message. He’s nuts that guy – properly stuck in the Cold War. I find it difficult to believe they couldn’t or didn’t positively identify the target before firing. There are not many cargo planes that can fly at Mach 0.8 at 30k feet – certainly nothing the Russians or Ukrainians have got, and you’re not going to mistake a B777 for a fighter aircraft.

The Wikipedia page for the missile system being reported suggests a maximum target altitude of 25,000ft…

25,000 Meters.

Big, big difference. The system could hit a high flying U2 spyplane.

tightywighty – Member

came from this page, but I can’t access now due to pay wall

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4150129.ece

OK, now on Reuters too

The military commander of the rebels, a Russian named Igor Strelkov, had written on his social media page shortly before the report of the airliner being downed that his forces had brought down an Antonov An-26 in the same area. It is a turboprop transport plane of a type used by Ukraine’s forces.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-ukraine-crisis-airplane-idUSKBN0FM22N20140717

Some bloke on the ground sees an aircraft up in the sky, he know he doesn’t have any on his side so lets loose with the missile he was trained to use last week.

Would he have known, or cared, what the silhouette of a transporter or a 747 look like ?
Can you pick out a turbo prop or a jet at that height ?

so yes, it really has just hit the fan

Putin ordering it deliberately in response to increased US sanctions to send a message. He’s nuts that guy – properly stuck in the Cold War. I find it difficult to believe they couldn’t or didn’t positively identify the target before firing. There are not many cargo planes that can fly at Mach 0.8 at 30k feet – certainly nothing the Russians or Ukrainians have got, and you’re not going to mistake a B777 for a fighter aircraft.

You’d think that wouldn’t you, but anything is possible when you have a pissed up vodka swilling ex Russian or Ukrainian conscript operating the system based on what he’s read in the stolen SOP’s.

Would he have known, or cared, what the silhouette of a transporter or a 747 look like ?
Can you pick out a turbo prop or a jet at that height ?

To a trained eye…. the flight path, constant altitude at 33000 feet and airspeed would indicate that it’s not a Ukrainian plane. Military turboprop cargo planes don’t fly at 33000 feet at a constant heading and altitude inside a warzone….unless they want to get shot down, let alone fly at Mach 0.8.

To a trained eye

anything is possible when you have a pissed up vodka swilling ex Russian or Ukrainian conscript

That could be your problem ….

Just seen about this; what a crap end to a nice afternoon.

Let’s keep comments here respectful 😥

ukranian government forces trying to get revenge on a russian plane for the planes theyve had shot down

The Ukrainians are fighting a group without any planes, so they don’t need to shoot anything down. The plane shot down was flying from West -> East.

A russian military plane would not be that deep into a neighbouring country, having appeared over the the wrong boarder.

Hopefully the Ukrainians have some anti-radiation missiles to go hunting with, that’s the only justice that I can see the Malaysians getting.

Moronic and awful situation all round. With that said, I’m not going to speculate any further out of respect for the dead.

Ahhh crap I can’t help speculating.

http://ru.flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140714/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK Original flightpath

http://ru.flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17 Todays flightpath

Supposedly only Kiev could have had the flight path altered *conspiracy mode on* A 10er says that Ukrainian intelligence knew there was a Buk missile launcher operating in the area (based on radio emissions) and diverted a flight over it.

Supposedly only Kiev could have had the flight path altered *conspiracy mode on* 10er says that Ukrainian intelligence knew there was a Buk missile launcher operating in the area and diverted a flight over it.

Half past 7 and on the booze already?

Niet. I’m just jaded/cynical.

Just leave it, eh?

The rebels tweeted that they had one of those BUKs a couple of weeks ago

tweet now removed apparrently

EDIT beaten above

Russian-backed rebels groups or Russian forces based in eastern Ukraine have allegedly been shooting at planes and helicopters with Buk missiles over the last week in an attempt to achieve mastery of air space.

Shoulder-held Manpad missiles are popular with guerrilla groups worldwide but the Malaysian Airlines plane would have been flying above 10,000 metres, well beyond their range. The Buk, which the Ukrainian interior minister, Anton Gerashenko, blamed for the attack, has a range of 22,000 metres.

Igor Sutyagin, a Russian military specialist at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said that he believed that either Russians or Russian supported groups in eastern Ukraine were responsible. He said they had been shooting at Ukrainian aircraft over the last week.

Sutyagin, who monitors social media in the Ukraine, said a Ukrainian rebel force had been spotted just hours earlier with a Buk at Torez, a village close to the site where the plane came down.

Jonathan Eyal, director of the Royal United Services Institute, said it was not a matter of climbing aboard a van and pressing a button. Firing a missile required knowledge of how to use radar, how to lock onto a target and a host of other steps beyond the average Kalashnikov carrying rebel.

“If the plane was shot down, it could only have been shot down by a state authority … The only country that has a persistent policy of trying to prevent Ukrainians controlling air space is Russia. Russia has taken an interest in shooting down aircraft and forcing Ukraine to use ground troops.”

From the Guardian. Does anyone know if airlines were warned about the missile system, seeing as the Ukrainians obviously knew about it?

Again, from the Guardian.

A site attributed to a separatist leader suggests rebels may have shot down MH17, but it has since been taken down and details remain unclear.

It features a comment saying “We just downed an An-26 near Torez. It’s down somewhere near Progress mine,” which suggests rebel forces may have believed the passenger jet to be a Ukrainian military transport plane.

The page, on the VKontakte social network, is attributed to Igor Girkin, who goes by the nom de guerre Strelkov and is the self-proclaimed military commander of the rebels. The page has been posting for rebels affiliated with Strelkov for weeks, and has some 130,000 followers.

A screengrab from a VKontakte page attributed to Igor Girkin, known as Strelkov among east Ukrainian rebels. Photograph: /VKontakte
The post continues “We had warned them not to fly in ‘our sky'” and says “here is video confirmation of the “downed little bird.” The linked video is the same as that used in media reports on the crash.

The post also says “a residential sector was not caught” and “Innocent people were not harmed.”

Rebels have previously shot down an An-26 jet on 14 June, killing 49 Ukrainian military servicemen.

Russia Today is claiming Putin might have been the target:

http://rt.com/news/173672-malaysia-plane-crash-putin/

Apparently this was taken in Donetsk today.

Quite amazed by just how connected the world is today.

I feel dirty for just clicking on that Rt.com link.

putins personal propoaganda channel Russia Today must be desperately wondering how to spin this, I suspect most russians will believe its a plot by the west/ukranians anyway, theyll be ready to scoff at the American sattelite imagery showing it being launched from a rebel checkpoint

Well a army wouldnt think rebels have jets so its a fair guess that its RUSSIANS. I imagine a Russian officer will be in big trouble for this.

Russia needs to feel some heat now.

Meanwhile in the middle east..

Israel starts ground offensive in Gaza

Whilst the eyes of the world look the other way…. 🙁

Rt are now showing pictures of all the dead people,some very sad people out there who go out and record these pictures, its somebodies family , husband wife kids, partner.

and other media are going on about the exact numbers of american and english and dutch people who where on the plane, sadly nothing about the malaysians who have died.

Totally pathetic coverage so far.

I wont click on the RT link. That could someone we know.

other media are going on about the exact numbers of american and english and dutch people who where on the plane, sadly nothing about the malaysians who have died.

A nasty modern day news habit. I recall a plane crash (may have been air france going to Brasil, maybe not) when Fiona Philips said ‘thankfully none of the victims were British’.

Terribly off thing to say IMO.

People tend to worry if they think their loved ones might have been on a plane that crashed, for that reason people feel reassured if they are told that no Brits (or whatever nationality the news supplier is) were aboard. It’s a natural reaction and very understandable imo.

Whoever was responsible for a missile attack I have no doubt that they didn’t deliberately target a civilian airliner. I can’t understand what it was doing flying over a war zone in which several planes had been shot down in the previous week. It’s reasonable to assume that whoever shot it down believed it to be either a Ukraine or Russian military plane. I would have thought.

Meanwhile in the middle east..

Israel starts ground offensive in Gaza

Whilst the eyes of the world look the other way….

Sadly it’s not a new tactic for the Israelis.