Is Shimano wireless shifting imminent?

As has even well documented I the the new Stumpy carbon frame and the new Santa Cruz ebike have both been launched with no routing for shift cables. As far as I can see you would only do this for 1 of 2 reasons as a manufacturer

1 SRAM have offered you superb deals that mean you are happy to lock yourself into axs only for the lifetime of that frame. That might be possible but would seem quite risky for a frame manufacturer perspective.

2 Shimano are finally about to launch there version and the frames are coming our before the official launch.

As someone with a preference for shimano shifting I might just be too optimistic/ hopeful and want competitor to help drive the prices for it out of the stratosphere

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Specialized probably got an even better deal on the groupsets by going wireless only

Shimano would be better looking at just making mechs tougher (eg Transmission) , and linkglide lighter

Rumours that at the XC marathon worlds (probably lake placid xco too but I haven’t watched it yet) that some of the top shimano athletes had the unreleased wireless shimano mechs with fake cables glued to them.

That might be possible but would seem quite risky for a frame manufacturer perspective.

Meh, the big brands only need to sell a frame for a year, maybe two, before revising it. The risk, if there is any, is with the rider getting tied into an ecosystem; big brands are taking no risk here themselves. Plus, in a few years time the rider can always stick some cable guides on and run a full outer to whack on Deore or Cues and not have to empty the bank for a new drivetrain.

Also sram are on their second gen of wireless mtb group sets. And they seem to have abandoned cables above GX level. I wouldn’t be worried about non compatibility for the manufacturer or first owner.
(as kelvin points out though, in five years someone wanting a second hand frame as a cheap starter bike/winter bike/park bike might be a bit upset).

there was an article on here a while back about getting a custom frame built. It raised an interesting (but probably very niche possibility) that someone commissioned a cableless hardtail or road /gravel bike in the specific period where first gen AXS existed, but UDH didn’t (or wasn’t ubiquitous). Hence leaving a custom frame owner with only the possibility of using first gen AXS for the rest of the hopefully long life of the frame.

It’s got to happen sooner or later, SRAM have proven that wireless is the way forwards so Shimano would be stupid to stick with wires.

I’ve no idea why Shimano haven’t bought out a wireless groupset, but with the introduction of Cues, they seem to have tacitly given up competing with SRAM for the top end market. Last update to XTR was what? 2018 when it went to 12 speed? Something like that. I can’t see them suddenly introducing a wireless version when Dura Ace Di2 is still only partly wireless.

There was something about it coming soon on the vitalmtb rumours thread.

It will be  something completely new (to fit in a “portless” frame) as  you still need the battery in the seat post in the current versions.

To be fair I’m not sure the current cable  they use is robust enough for off road, so a new option could make sense…

I posted a few days ago about Shimano AI shifting. While not wireless it seems, and on a hub gear, they are clearly using tech where they see an opportunity – https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/shimano-ai-gears/

I’ve no idea why Shimano haven’t bought out a wireless groupset

sram have a patent on it, so shimano need to do some clever work-around (like wiring front + rear mech together on the road side), to circumvent them

To 5lab’s point.  There was a recent Pinkbike podcast with a couple of Shimano people and there was a brief conversation that implied that they have as many patent lawyers as they do engineers…..

sram have a patent on it

Ahhh, that makes sense

How does Campagnolo get around it then? Isn’t Super Record fully wireless?

Sram don’t have the patent on it being wireless, anybody can do this

They have the patent on using the same battery for the front and rear mechs.

Hence why in the patent application for the new wireless Di2 the front mech battery can be used on the rear mech, but not the other way round.

They have the patent on using the same battery for the front and rear mechs.

I thought ideas had to be both novel & non-obvious for a patent to be granted? Using the same type of battery for two very similar devices is surely extremely obvious? IANAPL.

Why are people obsessed with getting rid of power wires? Why not run all motors from a single battery (plus the little coin ones on the shifters/controllers)?

The most exciting new product I’m looking forward to is mechanical SRAM transmission.

I thought ideas had to be both novel & non-obvious for a patent to be granted? Using the same type of battery for two very similar devices is surely extremely obvious? IANAPL.

It is probably down to the specific nature of the application. I have seen a patent for an alignment dowel which was granted becasue it realted specifically to its use on a truck brake torque plate.

or 3) run external cables under their self-adhesive cover.

I do this on the steel trike with 10 speed Di2. Looks fine and works well. By contrast, I just had all of the cable stops and shifter bosses removed from my steel TT bike frame so it is wireless electronic only – I run SRAM eTAP on that.

Mavic was wireless in 1992.

I think in most of the world the battery patent wouldn’t stand up in court, however in the US it very well might do, and as that is a major market it wouldn’t make much sense to tool up for such different implementations to the US as the rest of the world.

Once it moves to a button to press then the feel is going to be very vanilla at the handlebar as you won’t get any feedback.
How the system shifts will make a difference i.e. the original axs shifts very quickly but the T-type seems to have a second delay before shifting – that would wind me up. Shimano will no doubt have a slightly different take on the actual shift – if they are working on wireless…
However, when it comes out, it won’t be a feel preference at the handlebar that people will be buying as pressing a button is standard.

T-type seems to have a second delay before shifting – that would wind me up

I thought it would, but it doesn’t.

There’s some number of shift points, and it’s a different number per cog. I’d be interested in how many, can’t be arsed trying to count at the moment.

There was something about it coming soon on the vitalmtb rumours thread.

It’s been a few weeks since I caught up with this, but at the bottom of this page https://www.vitalmtb.com/forums/The-Hub,2/2020-MTB-Tech-rumors-and-innovation,10797?page=634

End of this year – XT & XTR wireless, and new brakes.

I hope it’s on its way so I can estimate how long it will be before the affordable version is released. I have bike with go and xo1 and I’m not keen. I’m not sure they have clutches in their mechs and I hate the big gap between the 52t and the next one. It’s far too big. My cable ocd wants less cables on my bike especially when so many manufacturers seem to not understand hose routing for those who have the rear brake on the lefr

especially when so many manufacturers seem to not understand hose routing for those who have the rear brake on the lefr

Even the On-One Scandal manages to mess this up on a frame designed in the UK ?

Even the On-One Scandal manages to mess this up on a frame ordered out of a catalogue in the UK ?

FTFY

You could change the cassette to a 10-50…may need to drop 2 teeth on the front ring (or push harder on the pedals) – I was fine with a 50t on my 27.5 bike, but moving to the 29 and I’m glad it has a 52 as I’m in 1 easier gear for the climbs as they aren’t fast!

there was an article on here a while back about getting a custom frame built. It raised an interesting (but probably very niche possibility) that someone commissioned a cableless hardtail or road /gravel bike in the specific period where first gen AXS existed, but UDH didn’t (or wasn’t ubiquitous). Hence leaving a custom frame owner with only the possibility of using first gen AXS for the rest of the hopefully long life of the frame.

Canyon produced a portless road frame for a year or two, not sure it’s available any more. Specifically stated in the product description that it could only be used with SRAM AXS.

Sram don’t have the patent on it being wireless, anybody can do this

They have the patent on using the same battery for the front and rear mechs.

Which is why Campagnolo wireless road groupset has to use a different battery on the front and rear mechs. Current Di2 gets round it by having the mechs linked to the same central battery.

Battery integration (into mechs) was the sticking point as I understood it.

Again I’m not sure SRAM can actually patent having a removable battery, but if they have, as alleged then Shimano being forced to have their batteries sealed up in the unit would be a real minus point against their products.