Is May about to call an election?

I haven’t usually got a lot of time for shouty youtube rants, but I think chunky mark has hit his stride with this one:

At moment neither labour or conservative plans seem entirely sensible and predicting what will happen economy wise post brexit or what that will be seems a lottery

Economics is a lottery. Over 100 economics professionals, professors and so on back Corybns plans and say it will create a positive change
Another 100 economists will say his plans suck.

No governments plans fully work, none are executed to 100% completion.
The decision people need to make is would they prefer 50% of Labour plans and intentions or would they prefer 50% of Conservatives plans and intentions.

PLus there won’t be much spare civil service time around brexit.

I can think of a way to free up more time.

Incidentally I think Thornberry gave away some secrets on women’s hour with regard to Labour’s view of Brexit.

She started in by saying we had to have a Brexit that worked for everyone. So to address the 52 we had to leave the EU and that there were many ways of doing that. But we also had to leave in a way that didn’t alienate the 48. It was very interesting the way she put it. And she was majoring on Keir and her being senior amongst the negotiating team.

‘Twas interesting.

Several from the right are exceptional at lying. They have moved straight to personal attacks, they preset no policy, they have stood behind nothing but slogans and refuse to elaborate on any policy. T

this x 100

Johnson has just repeated the exact same lie about corbyn he was pulled up on R4 this morning about, at his latest press conference

Personal case study. Check out my recent posts on here and other politics threads – though it’s only very recently I’ve started to make it clear exactly which way I’m now leaning. Go back even 5 years and check what I was posting. Maybe it has been a personal epiphany, but I reckon you lot on here have been a significant influence. OK so I was never as hardcore a righty as some on here and elsewhere – TBH I was probably one of those whose views didn’t reconcile that well with my voting habits, which I then attempted to justify.

Can an mp lie with impunity or is there some sort of mp cop who can pull them up?
Maybe at the beginning of any Boris interview the announcer should say that the comments Boris is about to make about corbyn is a lie.

To even consider the views of the 48 is quite a differentiator. I’m feeling fairly confident what Brexit means for Labour and it’s certainly something I can live with. Though as unlikely as the Tories not winning a majority seems, a Labour majority seems far less likely – if they do form a government they’re going to have to compromise with some parties who don’t want Brexit at all…

some in-depth analysis of the polls here

summary: shy torries will save Maybot and defy the polls

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

To sum things up, I’d give the same advice that I pretty much always do on the eve of an election. Focus on the polling average — Conservatives ahead by 7 points — rather than only the polls you like. But assume there’s a wide range of outcomes and that the errors are equally likely to come in either direction. Given the poor historical accuracy of U.K. polls, in fact, the true margin of error7 on the Labour-Conservative margin is plus or minus 10 points. That would imply that anything from a 17-point Conservative win to a 3-point Labour win is possible. And even an average polling error would make the difference between May expanding her majority and losing it.

Maybe at the beginning of any Boris interview the announcer should say that the comments Boris is about to make about corbyn is a lie.

To which Boris will reply ‘Careful sunshine, or we abolish the licence fee’.

Even Thatcher recognised the value of an impartial state broadcaster.
New Tories actively wish to suppress any kind of dissent.

Man sure workmates will vote Labour after saying they’re scum otherwise

🙂

CaptainFlashheart – Member
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/man-sure-workmates-will-vote-labour-after-saying-theyre-scum-otherwise-20170606128892

you see shy toryism is now a meme

To which Boris will reply ‘Careful sunshine, or we abolish the licence fee’.

Guess the content of the angry letter i fired off to the BBC this morning , as to why i’ll be cancelling my licence fee and disabling live broadcast equipment here…

I can think of a way to free up more time.

Me too, but don’t hold your breath because the one single Bennite policy Labour *will* be able to deliver is Brexit.

You assume that all governments wish to treat all their citizens in a reasonable manner.

No, but I assume they all want to get elected, and regardless of party that always involves spending.

Have you given the same level of scrutiny to the Tories plans?

I see no reason not to. If you provide some examples of extravagant Tory promises I’ll check them out. They’ve promised to fix Social Care and I can see how that’s feasable. When Cameron promised 13.7bn at the last minute in 2015 I called that out. (Linky above.)

Sure corporation tax and income tax might not be totally inelastic

Best to avoid making promises as if they were.

26% is hardly a particularly high rate, even Maggie seemed happy with that.

26pc 30 years ago was fine. In recent years everyone’s dropped their rates. We dropped ours to 19pc (IIRC) at the same time Spain, Japan and numerous other nations did. (Well, we rather cleverly announced it and then left it 1 year to cream off a bit more revenue on the assumption that nobody would bother to relocate to save themselves 1 year’s worth of 7pc) All those countries didn’t do that for a laugh, they did it because they felt they had to to compete. FWIW I find it someone staggering that people think 26pc is the sweet spot on the graph in 2017 because it was the sweet spot on the graph 30 years ago. Is that really Labour’s logic?

some in-depth analysis of the polls here

The thing is though – pollsters also know all those things. So they should have taken them into account. Shy Tory syndrome has been known about for years and is in most of the poll adjustments afaik.

The thing is though – pollsters also know all those things. So they should have taken them into account. Shy Tory syndrome has been known about for years and is in most of the poll adjustments afaik.

IIRC the yougov poll tries to account for it, the others don’t try to.

The yougov model also models seats which the others don’t do, I think.

The yougov model also models seats which the others don’t do, I think.

Yes, but the yougov admits the seat modelling is pretty much fiction.

They’ve promised to fix Social Care and I can see how that’s feasable

Okay – how is it feasible, what calculations have you done?

What is the total amount required to fix social care?
What is the top cap for the dementia tax that is funding it and does that add up?
What do they mean exactly by fixing it?

What do they mean exactly by fixing it?

Why, euthenasia, silly!
It’s the tory way!

http://calumslist.org/

We know of these 60 people from their friends and/or family contacting this website. The UK figure is nearer 4,000 but could be as high as 81,140 welfare reform deaths

Okay – how is it feasible, what calculations have you done?

What is the total amount required to fix social care?
What is the top cap for the dementia tax that is funding it and does that add up?
What do they mean exactly by fixing it?

Dunno.
Dunno.
Funding it properly.

As I see it the flaw is that it’s really easy to avoid. The risk is that vast numbers of people just avoid it. So it could fall flat on it’s face.

My guess is that won’t happen, because what I’ve seen in my own family is people just assume they’ll live healthily forever. My parents inhereted nothing because their parents needed residential care and in spite of being well aware of the situation they’re not showing any signs of planning ahead for the time they need residential care. I’d expect social care at home to be the same, for whatever reason people just don’t plan to avoid it.

…but even so, I trust this scheme more than I trust Labours “We’ll fix it along with everything else and you won’t have to pay.”

In fact, AFAIC the Tory plan for social care is the single best policy in this whole election.

Remind me again how low Germany and France have dropped their rates?

In fact, AFAIC the Tory plan for social care is the single best policy in this whole election.

Would a proper inheritance tax reform not be fairer on all? I can see major flaws in that policy where care home owners become major BTL landlords when they can’t sell their new assets.

In fact, AFAIC the Tory plan for social care is the single best policy in this whole election.

I almost agree

but mays u-turn and cap is stupid- it makes it horribly regressive doesnt it?

those with assets above her cap (ie the richest) will have their assets above it protected, meaning they could some could save millions

those with less than the cap see their inheritance taken away, so the poorest could loose everything theyve worked for their entire lives

Sauce

Remind me again how low Germany and France have dropped their rates?

Germany’s high. No idea about France. Are you saying the countries who have rates below Germany have miscalculated? How so? If so, why didn’t they all just pop them back up when they realized they could squeeze a bit more out?

outofbreath » 26pc 30 years ago was fine. In recent years everyone’s dropped their rates.

Graph above, have they dropped their rates lower than the UK? What are those rates?
Who is everyone

ulysse – I personally know one medium sized UK firm that moved HQ specifically for a lower corporation tax rate. All that was required was moving 3 full time posts to the new country and to hold board meetings in that country.

Are you saying that was a one off?

Are you saying that graph proves Corporation tax revenue is prefectly-inelastic?

I personally know one medium sized UK firm that moved HQ specifically for a lower corporation tax rate

Where did they go?

I don’t think that was what I was saying – why don’t we check back in the thread and see who was suggesting our corporation tax rates should be influenced by what other countries are doing…

How so? If so, why didn’t they all just pop them back up when they realized they could squeeze a bit more out?

The tories are not dropping corporate tax rates to maximise tax take, but to maximise the take for a small percentage of the population.

ulysse – I personally know one medium sized UK firm that moved HQ specifically for a lower corporation tax rate. All that was required was moving 3 full time posts to the new country and to hold board meetings in that country.

Are you saying that was a one off?

Are you saying that graph proves Corporation tax revenue is prefectly-inelastic?

What we need there is international co-operation on preventing companies pretending to be based in a different country for tax reasons, just cutting taxes because of dishonest abuse of tax systems is like legalising murder because it is complicated to investigate.

Who is everyone

Everyone was a bit of ill considered hyperbole on my part but Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation, reckon average rates in the G20 have fallen from 40 per cent in 1990 to 28.7 per cent in 2015. By 2020 they’ll be 27.1 per cent.

IIRC we cut ours at the same time as Spain, Japan, Italy and a few others to the smae rate as them (19pc IIRC). (Announced and then enacted after a year in the UK but immediately elsewhere.)

…but if you’re arguing corporation tax is inelastic, why stop at 26pc? What’s wrong with 90pc.

Where did they go?

I thought Belgium, but I think I was getting Luxembourg and Belgium mixed up, ‘cos moving to Belgium for tax reason seems a bit mental.

What we need there is international co-operation on preventing companies pretending to be based in a different country for tax reasons,

That would make sense.

What doesn’t make sense is pricing yourself out of the market *before* that co-operation is in place.

The Maybot is being interviewed right now on Sky news in a barn full of tractors. She really does pick her backdrops. It’s like she’s conducting her campaign from a load of unidentifiable secret locations as if she was on the run. Really doesn’t look very good.

Is she looking tired?

Gosh – in that context 26% does look a bad idea.

…but if you’re arguing corporation tax is inelastic, why stop at 26pc? What’s wrong with 90pc.

I wasn’t. HTH.

The tories are not dropping corporate tax rates to maximise tax take

Cite.

but to maximise the take for a small percentage of the population.

Corporation tax comes out of the money firms take in from customers. Just like VAT. It may look like the company is paying it, but the cash comes direct from the stuff they sell which is paid for by everyone. …and companies that sell food aren’t exempt from Corporation tax, in the way that food transactions are exempt.

The tories are not dropping corporate tax rates to maximise tax take, but to maximise the take for a small percentage of the population.

What was Spain’s motive? What was Japan’s motive? What was Italy’s motive? What was Luxenbourg’s motive?