How do you decide which crypto currency to buy?

A much better approach would be to explain what X is, why it matters and try and persuade me (or anyone else) on the merits of the case…..

It’s difficult to discuss anything with you because you are a fiat zealot who refuses to even entertain the idea that there is a fundamental flaw with with the current system.

You believe that if fiat fails then we are in Mad Max territory, therefore discussion of crypto is pointless.

Because you believe this you refuse to learn anything about crypto.

I could explain the price cycle and how it relates to halving. However, that would take time and there are hundreds of resources out there that do it far better than I could. I already posted links that I believe are a good place to start.

In order to discuss something we have to at least be able to speak the same language. If you refuse to learn even the basics and continue to claim, ‘Fiat will not fail’ as your main argument then all you are doing is sniping from the sidelines rather than engaging in discussion.

No-one believes any of this crap will be the ‘one true coin’ but they do think they can make a quick buck.

I actaully do, but it will be a state sanctioned one eg China is rolling out their own digital coin right now and being a defacto totalitarian regime it will be massively successful (it does seem quite well thought out too). However, it has nothing in common with the chaotic coins which everyone else is hyping right now.

It’s difficult to discuss anything with you because you are a fiat zealot who refuses to even entertain the idea that there is a fundamental flaw with with the current system.

Again, more personal attacks. Your case would be much better if you just addressed the issues.

Let me give you some pointers…

You state above ‘there is a fundamental flaw with with the current system’. Ok, so what is it, why is it a problem and how does Crypto address that problem? You can then weave a narrative explaining your case.

I’ve explained the fundamental flaw with fiat many times in this thread. Fiat printing has become a political tool rather than a financial one. Look at how it was used to prop up and distort stock markets during the pandemic. We have gotten to the stage where fiat printing is no longer controlled by central banks whose main interest is long term financial stability but it is instead controlled by politicians who use it to protect their own elect-ability.

This argument you always wave away as being not worth worrying about. That’s fine, it’s your opinion. My opinion and that of many others is that this is a very dangerous game to play and a store of value and currency that is not controlled by central governments is what is needed as we move into the next stage of money.

I could, of course, be wrong which is why I think of crypto as a hedge rather than a certainty.

Which brings us nicely to the ‘personal attacks’. I’m not sure how calling you a fiat zealot is a personal attack. You have frequently stated that fiat will not fail because it is backed by central governments. You have also stated that if it does fail then most likely society as a whole will fail. In addition, you refuse to even learn about alternatives.

IMO this makes you a zealot as you are so wedded to the ideas of our current system you believe society cannot exist without it. If there is a term you’d prefer I used to describe you then just let me know.

Which brings us nicely to the ‘personal attacks’. I’m not sure how calling you a fiat zealot is a personal attack.

It’s called argumentum ad hominem.

Wikipedia has it’s own page on the subject: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

Typically this term refers to a rhetorical strategy where the speaker attacks the character, motive, or some other attribute of the person making an argument rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself. This avoids genuine debate by creating a diversion to some irrelevant but often highly charged issue.

In this case calling me a zealot means you no longer have to refute my points.

If there is a term you’d prefer I used to describe you then just let me know.

You don’t need to describe me in any way at all. It’s completely unnecessary, adds nothing to the discussion, and is also rather rude.

I’ve explained the fundamental flaw with fiat many times in this thread. Fiat printing has become a political tool rather than a financial one. Look at how it was used to prop up and distort stock markets during the pandemic. We have gotten to the stage where fiat printing is no longer controlled by central banks whose main interest is long term financial stability but it is instead controlled by politicians who use it to protect their own elect-ability.

Great, we have a start. This is called your working hypothesis.

Now you need to explain how BC etc resolves this issues, it’s relative strengths and weaknesses.

I, in turn, will try and pick your argument apart, eg for an opening starter:

You might like to address how printing money during the pandemic to stabilise economies and avoid a 1930s style depression is a bad thing and how it would have been better to not intervene? As this is what I infer from your hypothesis.

Also,

Fiat printing has become a political tool rather than a financial one.

I don’t think anyone would argue with this, but why is it a bad thing? Governments have a self interest in keeping economies out of recessions, stabilising unemployment, managing inflation, etc and having control of their currency allows them to do this. I would argue that it’s actually a plus point for fiat currencies.

Going back to our South American friends, pegging your currency to the USD has the disadvantage of limiting your ability to deflate your currency to address productivity imbalances. Although it has the plus point of reducing the chance of hyper inflation, which is a big problem with currencies of small countries who are badly run. As such many countries end up running two parallel currencies, the official one and the USD as an unoffical alternate which if often needed to buy imported goods.

You might like to address how printing money during the pandemic to stabilise economies and avoid a 1930s style depression is a bad thing and how it would have been better to not intervene?

Did it though? It certainly propped up the markets. The effect it has had on the real economy has not been as positive.

And of course, we still have a long way to go. It could be we haven’t even seen the effects of all this fiat printing yet. The worst could be yet to come.

The US’s position as the home of the global reserve currency is being threatened. I can’t tell you what will take it’s place if USD loses it’s accepted role as global reserve currency but for now I’m thinking BTC and other coins are the best hedge I can see.

By the way, if I call you a Fiat enthusiast instead of Fiat zealot do you think you could tone down the condescension a bit? I’m not sure where talking down to people fits on the clever pyramid you posted earlier.

I don’t think anyone would argue with this, but why is it a bad thing? Governments have a self interest in keeping economies out of recessions, stabilising unemployment, managing inflation, etc and having control of their currency allows them to do this. I would argue that it’s actually a plus point for fiat currencies.

It’s a control system. Most control systems require extensive testing to avoid feedback loops and uncontrollable swings.

It’s great so long as it always works. Ask your average Control System Engineer how many untested systems work first time.

It’s a control system. Most control systems require extensive testing to avoid feedback loops and uncontrollable swings.

One that has been continually adpated for decades and will continue to do so for decades more.

Ask your average Control System Engineer how many untested systems work first time.

Quite a good analogy as BC is acting like a completely uncontrolled open loop system with wild fluctations and unpredictable behaviour.

NB My BEng major was feedback control systems 😉

Did it though? It certainly propped up the markets. The effect it has had on the real economy has not been as positive.

So far its night and day difference: unemployment in the UK is what, 4% ish right now. The US is having a massive boom. Compare it to mass unemployment and destitution in the 30s.

do you think you could tone down the condescension a bit? I’m not sure where talking down to people fits on the clever pyramid you posted earlier.

If you just stick to the arguments they’ll be no need for any guidance!

One that has been continually adpated for decades and will continue to do so for decades more.

You forgot to add, ‘we hope’. If you know it then you need to let us into the secret of how you know it.

In all the decades that this system has been run for, where is the precedent for the levels of money printing we have had for the last two years?

We are very much in uncharted territory at the moment.

Quite a good analogy as BC is acting like a completely uncontrolled open loop system with wild fluctations and unpredictable behaviour.

Actually, so far BTC has been fairly predictable. Every time there has been a halving there has been a great deal of interest, a large increase in price, and a collapse (although a collapse to a higher price than pre-halving)

So far, with each cycle, the ROI has been reduced from bottom to peak and the time cycle has lasted has lengthened. If this pattern continues we are looking at a peak in mid to late 2022 with a price of $100K to $130K.

IT probably won’t work out exactly like this but imo this is the scenario with the highest probability.

The next cycle could be the really interesting one as the cycle length will probably extend past the next halving. I believe this is the point where the cycle model will no longer hold true but I think this cycle will follow the previous trends.

This type of stop-start adoption is to be expected in such a new category of value store.

So far its night and day difference:

I think the key part of that sentence is ‘So far’

Also, I’m not sure if it’s possible to directly compare unemployment figures from the 1930s and now. Not many 0 hour contracts back then, for one thing.

I think looking at foodbank use instead of employment figures might be more telling:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/21/nine-in-10-councils-in-england-see-rise-in-people-using-food-banks

I think looking at foodbank use instead of employment figures might be more telling:

Only if you ignore the fact that for many even employed folk the choice is shelter or food due to the astronomical cost of housing in this country so not sure food bank use tells us much since there’s no housing bank data to offset it against.

I think looking at foodbank use instead of employment figures might be more telling

How would the adoption of a Crypto currency reduce the use of food banks?

I think looking at foodbank use instead of employment figures might be more telling

Very much so, compare the use of food banks now to the 1930s and you’ll see that we’re much better off now than they were then!

The defining images of the 30s depression (in my mind) are huge queues of people at soup kitchens etc.

We are very much in uncharted territory at the moment.

Surely that applies more to Crypto than to fiat currencies. For a start no one has ever used Crypto as an actual currency (although one chap did buy a Pizza for 33 BC a few years back IIRC). Whereas we have 100s of years of experience of fiat currencies…

Genuine question.

If central banks printing Fiat currency to prop up an economy is bad; surely unregulated, privately owned (and according to the New York Attorney General, straight-up corrupt) companies printing USDT and USDC to prop up crypto is just as bad? And if crypto does move to wider adoption, it is in fact worse, because they are accountable to no-one?

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/stablecoins-like-tether-should-face-regulators-scrutiny

Wow, that’s a lot of threads people have decided to pick at rather than address the core questions (Is it possible that central governments could lose control of their fiat currencies? 2nd question: Is it possible that the USD could lose it’s place as Global Reserve Currency?)

If the answer to either question is yes then I think you have to accept it’s sensible to try to hedge somehow. If you have better options than crypto then that’s one thing but to say, ‘I’m just hoping for the best’ isn’t going to work for all of us.

But since you’ve decided to pick at threads then I guess we might as well address these points.

Only if you ignore the fact that for many even employed folk the choice is shelter or food due to the astronomical cost of housing in this country so not sure food bank use tells us much since there’s no housing bank data to offset it against.

That’s not really an argument that the economy is in rude health. It’s the opposite really. People are going to be less able to absorb inflation.

How would the adoption of a Crypto currency reduce the use of food banks?

It won’t keep everyone out of foodbanks. However, in the event of out of control inflation it will hopefully keep me and anyone else who invested in crypto out of foodbanks by protecting the value of our money.

Very much so, compare the use of food banks now to the 1930s and you’ll see that we’re much better off now than they were then!

As trail_rat said, foodbanks are not just for the unemployed now. Many families who are employed are forced to resort to foodbanks and that is definitely not the sign of a robust economy.

Trying to compare the 1930s to today is impossible, not least because they didn’t make their money printers go brrrr like we do now. If they had perhaps the Depression could have been mitigated. Or maybe it would have made things much worse. IMO it would have simply kicked the can down the road. If people learned that wild speculation paid off big and if it didn’t the government would bail you out I think that would have led to even more reckless behaviour (like we see now).

Possibly, by printing all this money society has been saved. Or the can has been kicked further down the road and the true cost will become evident over the next decade.

Surely that applies more to Crypto than to fiat currencies. For a start no one has ever used Crypto as an actual currency (although one chap did buy a Pizza for 33 BC a few years back IIRC). Whereas we have 100s of years of experience of fiat currencies…

Which is why I have a very small proportion of my savings in crypto. It’s a hedge, not a retirement plan.

I’m interested in where this idea of hundreds of years of fiat currencies comes from. Yes, the currencies have been around for hundreds of years. However, the USD and GBP under the gold standard and are very very different to the current USD and GBP. GBP and USD as pure fiat currencies have only been around since 1971.

Genuine question.

If central banks printing Fiat currency to prop up an economy is bad; surely unregulated, privately owned (and according to the New York Attorney General, straight-up corrupt) companies printing USDT and USDC to prop up crypto is just as bad? And if crypto does move to wider adoption, it is in fact worse, because they are accountable to no-one?

Most (but not all) crypto-currencies are subject to transparent rules about how coins will be minted and burned. It’s not down to the will of a few individuals.

It varies for all coins but if you really want to find out how things work with each coin you can.

Personally, I use USDT because it has the most trading pairs on Binance. I would prefer to use PAX if I had the choice but there just aren’t that many pairs.

I accept the risks associated with it for now.

I’m interested in where this idea of hundreds of years of fiat currencies comes from. Yes, the currencies have been around for hundreds of years. However, the USD and GBP under the gold standard and are very very different to the current USD and GBP. GBP and USD as pure fiat currencies have only been around since 1971.

They continually adapt to the circumstances which are continually changing. When people say ‘we’re in uncharted territory etc’, it’s always completely uncharted as the history leading up to the current situation is always unique. Hence its probably a good bet that they’ll stick around in some form or another for a long time yet.

But you are saying that GBP under the gold standard is the same as GBP under fiat?

I think that’s trading on the reputation of a name rather than what is actually going on under the hood.

Is it possible that central governments could lose control of their fiat currencies?

Anything *is* possible (even widespread BC adoption *is* possible). The real question is what is the likely probability it will happen. How would a central government loose control of its own currency, what would that look like and what would you buy with your BCs of all the shops are empty etc….

If the answer to either question is yes then I think you have to accept it’s sensible to try to hedge somehow.

Although there are plenty of more traditional options other than Crypto eg Gold is a much better understood and stable alternative.

But you are saying that GBP under the gold standard is the same as GBP under fiat?

It’s the effective equivalent for that era. The main differences (as I see it) with fiat vs Crypto is one is regulated and controlled by a Government and central bank and the other isn’t.

I think that’s trading on the reputation of a name rather than what is actually going on under the hood.

The exact details of how it is implemented and how central banks manipulated it change over time, but the fundamental difference (that some entity is trying to stabilise it) is the same.

Is it possible that central governments could lose control of their fiat currencies

Possible, but unlikely for any developed country.

2nd question: Is it possible that the USD could lose it’s place as Global Reserve Currency

Completely feasible, but i’d be saying the Yuan is the next likely option, given how the Chinese economy is going to emerge over the next 10-20 years.

If the answer to either question is yes then I think you have to accept it’s sensible to try to hedge somehow. If you have better options than crypto then that’s one thing but to say, ‘I’m just hoping for the best’ isn’t going to work for all of us.

If you’re looking to hedge your risk to this issue, the sensible thing would be to invest in gold.

the sensible thing would be to invest in gold.

And for some reason, I just can’t put my finger on, Reddit forums aren’t full of people hyping Gold as a stable, well understood hedge against fiat collapse…..

The real question is what is the likely probability it will happen.

I agree. If I thought it was the most likely outcome then most of my savings would be in crypto. As it is most of my savings are in conventional assets.

How would a central government loose control of its own currency, what would that look like and what would you buy with your BCs of all the shops are empty etc….

If you are asking me to give you a detailed breakdown of exactly what is going to happen then I can’t do that. I can’t even tell you if inflation or deflation is the most likely outcome. I can’t even tell you if printing vast quantities of money is going to have a positive or negative effect on society.

What I can say is that this much money has never been printed before. I would be very surprised if this had no effect on society and I’d like to hedge my bets if that’s OK?

Although there are plenty of more traditional options other than Crypto eg Gold is a much better understood and stable alternative.

IMO, in terms of the fundamentals for a store of value, BTC is better than gold.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2019/11/04/bitcoin-is-better-than-gold-for-one-simple-reason/

Not only that, crypto allows me to play on a level playing field. All the information I need is available through free APIs and there is no way for financial institutions to put up barriers that only they can profit from.

In addition, there is yet to be a 4 year period in BTC’s history where, if you bought it and held it for the full 4 years, you wouldn’t have come out in profit. Currently it is going up (admittedly in an unstable but reasonably predictable manner) and I believe it is going to continue going up for a while, probably at the expense of gold.

But yeah, I could be wrong. Hence why most of my savings are in conventional assets.

This thread is called ‘How do you decide which crypto currency to buy?’ and it would be really great if we could actually talk about crypto.

Instead, it’s like there are a group of protesters who are hell bent on derailing any discussion by coming in and shouting ‘TULIPS!!!’ every time anyone begins actually talking about crypto.

We get it, you don’t like crypto. You’ve made that abundantly clear over the last 15 pages where you’ve made the same points over and over again.

I’d really like to discuss the lengthening cycle theory, wyckoff ditribution, ETH 2.0, smart contracts, the BTC mining council, etc.

And yeah, sometimes it would be nice to speculate on blurring the line between tokens for work done and currency and what that could mean for the future.

I can’t talk about that because the same people keep shouting ‘TULIPS!!!’

Would it not maybe be better if you started another thread titled, ‘Crypto, it’s a bit shit, isn’t it?’ and carry on your discussion there?

Sorry for helping derail the discussion. I wouldn’t want to put anyone off contributing to the thread so I’ll lurk from now on 👍

Would it not maybe be better if you started another thread titled, ‘Crypto, it’s a bit shit, isn’t it?’ and carry on your discussion there?

Not really. The original question was about which crypto currency to buy. There’s a widely held view that they’re all a bit shit and that it’s become a vehicle for ponzi schemes and pump-and-dump scams, so if someone’s asking what to buy it’s quite reasonable to point that out. If someone wants to buy a crypto currency regardless (possibly based on arbitrary curve-fitting that attempts to predict the future based on past performance and couched in terms stolen from technical analysis and chartists with a few newly minted for the purpose in an effort to f̶o̶o̶l̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶g̶u̶l̶l̶i̶b̶l̶e̶ add a veneer of technical justification to the process) then that’s their call.

OK, but is 15 pages of people shouting ‘TULIPS, PONZI!!!’ really necessary to get that point across?

Fair enough, if you guys are determined to shut down any discussion with your protests (and lets face it, if you haven’t quit after 15 pages you’re not going to stop now) then I guess there’s not much more to do.

I have to say though, crypto ‘stealing’ technical analysis is one I hadn’t heard before so well done for at least being original.

crypto ‘stealing’ technical analysis is one I hadn’t heard before

And it’s not what I said, I said it was using “terms stolen from”, although “terms invented by” might be a better phrase. And for what it’s worth I regard most  technical analysis and its subset chartists as being little more than clairvoyancy in most cases; I tend more towards fundamental analysis when making investing decisions, and believe me the fundamentals of the average crypto currency do not look good!

for what it’s worth I regard most technical analysis and its subset chartists as being little more than clairvoyancy in most cases;

but TBF that’s not specific to crypto. I am sceptical of TA too, sounds like a bunch of guff but perhaps that’s because I can’t be arsed to spend years learning. But I know someone who does it for a living and applies it (profitably) to BTC like she would to anything else. She’s more cautious, as BTC is a somewhat manipulated market, but I think it’s possible if you know what you’re doing.

Back to OPs question. Easy..depends on time horizon.

If you looking a short term trade – just keep a eye out for a top 100 coin that’s going to be listed on Coin base. Buy 10k USD worth a few days before. Sell 12h after listing with 10% profit.

6-9 months. Both ETH and ADA plan a big update before the end of the year. Both are 40% off their all time highs. 10k now. Wait for the event and K-Pow! Walk away with a new ebike.

10y+ 5k bitcoin, 4k ETH, 1k in a scatter gun of 100-200 ranked coins that have a pretty symbol or interesting story behind it learnt from a YouTube video you watched only half way through. In 10y most will have gone to zero. The one that hasn’t would have 20Xed

Or in 15y+ the Chinese digital RMB will now be the reserve currency as the they has first mover advantage back in 2021. The US were too slow to react spending all their time trying to regulate the shiz out of bitcoin. So whatever you buy now will not matter one miota. 😉

6-9 months. Both ETH and ADA plan a big update before the end of the year.

Do you mean ETH 2.0 here? On that one, the ‘it’s about 18 months away’ clock was reset again last week – now looking at late 2022 instead:

https://tokenist.com/buterin-explains-why-ethereum-2-0-upgrade-wont-arrive-until-late-2022/

Yes I was. However it kinda depends on your definition of ETH 2.0 In my head it’s all about scaling.

Starts with Arbtruim, continues with Optistic, then zil style sharding. I don’t enough about ETH to know what is a pre requisites for POS though that will be huge too as it ticks the green box. So is POS officially 2.0?

Matic is effectively rollups and it’s gone mental!

And it’s funny how all talk is about Bitcoins energy usage. ETH is still POW – no one bitches about that. Does it use it a lot less??

And isn’t Doge POW? Nice one Elon.

People do bitch about it – in particular in connection with NFTs earlier this year. I know of a few artists that boycotted the whole NFT thing on that basis – but it is a source of concern:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/15/22328203/nft-cryptoart-ethereum-blockchain-climate-change

But yeah I think it uses less leccy because it’s less valuable. If you want to set up a data centre to mine Crypto, you might as well mine BTC because it’s worth 20x more.

As the value goes up, so the mining difficulty goes up, so people need bigger rigs, so the climate impact follows, and ETH has been on that curve over the last year, but it’s behind BTC (cheaper coins, smaller trading volume etc).

ETH mining was a factor in the recent graphics card shortages though (just like Chia has been a factor in the hard disk price increases of late). And yeah DOGE is POW too, and Elon Musk appears to be chatting shit.

PoS sounds good in theory, but I have yet to see an argument that explains why, in practice, it’s not going to end up as basically feudalism. Because that’s what it looks like!

Ok I don’t really have it clear in my head what feudalism is but POS to me means ‘The more I’m worth, the bigger say I have in how to better fully bags. Yuck!

I was listening to a podcast around POW. They explained it as the new entrant to the mining space has all the advantage due to Moore’s law. Interesting huh?

Back to OPs question. Easy..depends on time horizon.

If you looking a short term trade – just keep a eye out for a top 100 coin that’s going to be listed on Coin base. Buy 10k USD worth a few days before. Sell 12h after listing with 10% profit.

6-9 months. Both ETH and ADA plan a big update before the end of the year. Both are 40% off their all time highs. 10k now. Wait for the event and K-Pow! Walk away with a new ebike.

10y+ 5k bitcoin, 4k ETH, 1k in a scatter gun of 100-200 ranked coins that have a pretty symbol or interesting story behind it learnt from a YouTube video you watched only half way through. In 10y most will have gone to zero. The one that hasn’t would have 20Xed

Or in 15y+ the Chinese digital RMB will now be the reserve currency as the they has first mover advantage back in 2021. The US were too slow to react spending all their time trying to regulate the shiz out of bitcoin. So whatever you buy now will not matter one miota. 😉

Wow, I’ve read circa 15 pages of gibberish (so much that I can’t actually remember the first pages!)to finally see some advice!

I have a small amount invested in ADA, BTC and Ethereum at the moment, looking to buy some Telcoin and also Keanu!

Ada is on track to be a very good project I’ve been with it since 2019.
Then it’s a selection of the usual scumbags just in case
Xrp
Eth
Btc
Binance (cheap trading)
Doge (why not currently running at an average of .7 a coin)

Hopes pined on miota for it’s partnerships. https://www.publish0x.com/wordstock/full-list-of-iota-miota-partnerships-2020-xyrwex

I had a few pence scattered about in a few things, bought when prices high like the noob I am. ADA was one of them, didn’t do too bad with that, it’s generally above what I paid for it but been a few dips. Staked it but wallet didn’t give me choice of pool or anything.

Decided to ditch DNT & ANKR and used XLM to move between wallets and for exchange due to it’s very low network fees. Staked it in ATOM, mainly because it has better staking rates than ADA. Bought a little ATOM but again, not at the ideal time so generally that’s been closer to below what I paid than above. There were other coins with higher staking rates than ATOM but I didn’t have enough to meet the exchanges minimum amounts for that so you can tell how little I’m playing with.

Haven’t really learnt that much since I started messing about with it during than big price rise the other month, other than I’ll be &*$&$*($&( lucky if I make any money out of it the way things are going.