French Elections

Is there method to Macron’s madness?

He saw Sunak launching the worst political campaign in history & said, hold my Merlot…

Theres a school of thought that he’s played a blinder, by forcing the country to ask if they want to be ruled by the putin sympathising far-right after they scored well in the European elections and that he would probably be facing a revolt & potential collapse anyway to get his budget passed later in the year.

Even if he loses he thinks they will be so incompetent theyll be out within a few years

Cameroonian arrogance or Starmer-like genius?

Its certainly put le chat amongst les pigeonnes, the far-left are infighting, the head of the right wing party proposed an alliance with LePenn and promptly saw many of his MPs quit, he’s now barricaded himself  inside the party headquarters to stop their executive firing him

?The Eric Ciotti Comedy Saga continues:

Not only did he lock himself in his office, but Éric Ciotti has now shut down the Les Républicains headquarters to prevent the political bureau meeting scheduled for this afternoon

LR executives were expected to remove him from office https://t.co/wMRDjeDQUt

— Julien Hoez (@JulienHoez) June 12, 2024

Starmer-like genius?

It might be an idea to wait and see how he performs as prime minister before awarding him accolades like that.

Currently personal approval polls suggest that voters aren’t particularly struck by Starmer’s genius like qualities.

I thought that line might snare some people!

Its actually very worrying and Macron could well have got it very wrong

He saw Sunak launching the worst political campaign in history & said, hold my Merlot…

Sorry, but that was the line I focused on!

It risks being a Referendum like gamble – lots of other issues creating a groundswell of a protest vote. Not sure what a right wing victory would mean for us and the rest of Europe.

Its actually very worrying and Macron could well have got it very wrong

That depends on what the alternative plan was/is.

Could be on balance of probabilities it was the best decision.  Even if it goes wrong it’s not necessarily a bad decision if all roads were leading to the same destination anyway.

I’m currently thinking there is method to the madness by forcing the country to make a quick decision on what moral base it wants to sit upon. I haven’t spoken to any French colleagues yet so it will be good to get their take on events.

Nice use of French imagery OP I enjoyed that.

To be fair the Starmer genius is in contrast to the mess Cameron made of the country so I am comfortable with the phrase.

Even if it goes wrong it’s not necessarily a bad decision if all roads were leading to the same destination anyway.

It is still extremely worrying! I think some people might be underestimating the crisis across the Channel.

Let me help you develop a sense of panic:

Millennials and first-time Gen Z voters are among those predicted to pull rightwards. Figures gathered recently for the Financial Times newspaper suggest around a third of young French voters and Dutch under-25s, and 22% of young German voters, favour their country’s far right. This is a significant increase since the last European Parliament election in 2019.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22vne9x03o

It is still extremely worrying! I think some people might be underestimating the crisis across the Channel.

Let me help you develop a sense of panic:

It is, but I don’t think all hope is lost.

Take a look at the EU results from the nordic countries, mostly countries where the far right have recently been allowed into the government.  Voters haven’t been quite so keen on them once they’ve seen what they do with a sniff of power.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/11/left-wing-nordic-nations-provide-ray-of-hope-in-europe

One lesson Macron and others could take from all this is that ignoring young people is only going to lead them to parties that say they are taking their issues seriously.  Even if they really aren’t.

 I don’t think all hope is lost.

I am not sure that anyone has suggested that all hope is lost.

Even the Vichy government was eventually defeated

But a far-right government in France would be a disaster for anyone to the left of the Tory Party.

One lesson Macron and others could take from all this is that ignoring young people is only going to lead them to parties that say they are taking their issues seriously.

Ah, I had forgotten, it was you who was claiming recently that everything is the fault of the older generations and that the younger generations have a much healthier political outlook, wasn’t it?

I have no idea why you apparently now think that younger generations are so gullible that they might believe the far-right when they say that they take “their issues seriously”?

To be fair the Starmer genius is in contrast to the mess Cameron made of the country so I am comfortable with the phrase.

TBF Cameron was seen as a genius right up until his last gamble went pearshaped.

For OP it is notable that he hasnt put his own position at risk.

So seems like his plan is:

Hopefully win.

If not by the 27 presidental elections they will have proved themselves incompetent and hence he will win.

One theory concerning Macron’s apparent madness:

https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1800024242765148387

And to back up the claim made in the link above that banks won’t lend to the far-right in France:

Le Pen’s National Rally pays off Russian loan ahead of EU elections

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-national-rally-pays-back-russia-loan/

Le Pen is going to need a very quick loan from Putin, will she have time?

Ah, I had forgotten, it was you who was claiming recently that everything is the fault of the older generations and that the younger generations have a much healthier political outlook, wasn’t it?

Yay, the old guys with all the wealth want to slag off the young.  I love this game.

So yes, just to reiterate, the boomers have been the largest bloc of voters for 50 years in most countries in Europe.  And right across Europe politicians have been pandering to the largest bloc of voters for 50 years and now, surprise surprise, boomers own everything and there is nothing left for the young.

That can manifest itself as a healthier outlook where the focus is on a fairer distribution across all society or it can manifest itself as mistakenly putting the blame on brown people.  I guess it depends on your background and the culture you come from.

So yes, it is still your fault, I’m afraid.

And just remember, you were the one who decided to bring the thread down this avenue.

And just remember, you were the one who decided to bring the thread down this avenue.

Nope, not me, I am not in the least bit interested in making a distinction between the generations with regards to politics.

You were arguing with other people, not me. I fully accept that in the UK younger voters are more left-wing than older voters.

I found the whole debate rather pointless (with regards to where it went) and kept out of it.

I am not sure that anyone was ‘slagging off the young’ though, as you claim.

Macron would have to leave office soon anyhow due to the rule on how many presidential terms one person can hold. Probably self-interest/roll the dice, nothing more complicated than that from an ambitious narcissist

Well Les Republicans have booted out their leader, no right wing alliance with LePen!

Whether they’ll ally with Macron now, I have no idea!

‼️The national bureau of the French centre right party, Les Républicains, has just expelled its own President, Eric Ciotti. He went behind the back of other party bigwigs to make an alliance with Le Pen's far right party before the snap parliamentary elections on 30 June/7 July.

— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) June 12, 2024

Probably self-interest/roll the dice, nothing more complicated than that from an ambitious narcissist

You haven’t explained how it might be self-interest from an ambitious narcissist. Any clues?

Macron has always suffered from arrogance, this kind of shows us it again, he’s out anyway in 2027, as only allowed 2 consecutive stays in office, no talk of coming back after though, might go away for a while until it gets a bit more like it was a decade ago for him and his party.

It’s a shame, as he came in with some potential promise, but soon fell into the same old same old mould of previous incumbents, if La Pen gets in, well it’ll not be good for the EU, or immigration, they’ll make any of our parties talks of clamping down look like a ray of sunshine compared to what La Pen and her lot are after. I believe this type of scenario is also a huge reason Germany didn’t want the UK to leave the EU, another benefit of Brexit 😟

La plume de ma tante might be feminine but Le Pen isn’t 💡

If the French want to let Fascism out the bag, then fair enough, thats their choice, though last time Fascism played in France, things didnt go too well or end too well.

But lets see them trying to get it back in again

though last time Fascism played in France, things didnt go too well or end too well.

Actually it provided the seeds which grew to eventually become the EU.

The Vichy and Nazis governments synchronised their economies which provided the blueprint for The European Coal and Steel Community, which in turn laid the foundations for the EEC, and finally resulted in the EU.

Let Pens even more right wing niece ranting about the equally far right Zamouur not teeming up with her partty

https://x.com/JulienHoez/status/1800939843414843495?

The far left parties meanwhile have come to an agreement, they could be key and ultimately end up putting LePen(Bardella) in powers

The far left parties meanwhile have come to an agreement, they could be key and ultimately end up putting LePen(Bardella) in powers

They have agreed to vote for the NR?

It will come as a huge relief to the centrists that will be able to blame someone else.

I’m in town for the first round so that’s easy, I just vote. However the second round I need someone for a procuration and that’s not going to be easy because I’m not so sure socialists I’d normally have trusted to vote for me haven’t joined the RN ranks.

There’s something of a Brexit going on in French society on a right-left divide. There hadn’t used to be much difference between the camps but there’s now a societal clash that’s straining friendships. In the MTB club there used to be a couple of overt Le Pen supporters, an ex-CRS and a bus controller – under 10% of the membership. No-one was bothered we get along fine. There are now a bunch with far right rhetoric who form a clique but don’t have the courage to go public. It’s easy to know which clique people put themselves in on whom they ride next to.

I voted Glucksmann in the Europeans and will do so again in the first round. Second round it’s always damage limitation unless your first choice is still standing.

The Vichy and Nazis governments synchronised their economies which provided the blueprint for The European Coal and Steel Community, which in turn laid the foundations for the EEC, and finally resulted in the EU.

This is all in Ernie’s head BTW. You’ve been making more sense recently, Ernie, but your hate of the EU gets in the way of objectivity on some issues.

I would do exactly the same in Macron’s position. You have to let people see the hard right for what they are : a bunch of racists with no real policies.

The hard part is convincing people of this. Sometimes lessons are learned the hard way…

We’ve always got to remember that part of the French populous were Nazi sympathisers, and some even Nazi supporters. Not all were in favour of the Resistance.  Especially in the South (Vichy etc as previously pointed out).  Just like in England, that support for fascism still exists in France.

I’m sure this is Macron’s move to shake the more pleasant people out of their slumber.  Desperately hope it works.  Because history on this side of the Channel is that it can backfire – Cameron’s gamble with the country’s future going wrong big style.

Got to hope the French masses are not as stupid as many of the English were.

Students home from uni, teachers still obliged to be present, workers not on holiday, probably good weather; timing isn’t going to favour extreme right. The budget deficit is biting and banks downgrading, if you’re going to throw in the towel as the shit hits the fan now is as good a time as any if you want to drop your successor in the shit. My main worry is Ukraine; anything that weakens France’s support for Ukraine is not good for Europe as a whole.

I think some of you need reminding that the French didn’t vote the fascists into power in WWII, they rocked up uninvited in 40 and installed a puppet government in Vichy to do their dirty work. The numbers of enthusistic fascists in 40 was low, as was the number of résistants de la première heure.

My first WTF was when school uniforms were introduced as a trial. It’s always been a no-no because of the links to fascism so seeing kids in a uniform is a very visible sign of how far right things have already gone. I reckon that if they introduce uniforms in Madame Edukator’s school she’ll be out the door to early retirement (masters and doctorate on French resistance history).

I hope you’re correct for the sake of my Moroccan friend, her family and millions like her who feel alienated by the rise of Le Pen & her chums over the last 10+ years

I’m an immigrant too.

The Vichy and Nazis governments synchronised their economies which provided the blueprint for The European Coal and Steel Community, which in turn laid the foundations for the EEC, and finally resulted in the EU.

This is all in Ernie’s head BTW. You’ve been making more sense recently, Ernie, but your hate of the EU gets in the way of objectivity on some issues.

I can’t change historical facts to suit my agenda Ed. Although you’ll obviously give it a go! 😉

https://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1028/

Finally, it reveals that although the Organisation Committees were formally abolished in 1946, Jean Monnet created parallel bodies, named Modernisation Commissions, which took over the functions and carried on the work of Vichy’s Committees under the auspices of the Monnet Plan. By demonstrating the continuities of institutions and individuals in French industrial organisation from 1940 to 1946, or l’entre-deux-républiques, this thesis contributes to the history of Vichy and post-war France and re-evaluates the origins of the Monnet Plan and of the European Coal and Steel Community, the forerunner to today’s European Union.

And btw get a grip I don’t “hate” the EU. You might see institutions in terms of love and hate but I don’t. I consider the EU to be inherently anti-democratic and racist. Since its inception it has been firmly under the control of conservative and reactionary forces. I don’t see it as a progressive force.

I can’t change the facts behind its origins, which includes the role of the Vichy government.

Edit: For the record I was somewhat more sympathetic towards the EEC, although I did accept Michael Foot’s and Tony Benn’s critique of it. The EU which the Tories took us into was a whole new ball game.

Can you be somewhat sympathetic to other posters on political threads and have a rest to give others a chance?

I’m asking on behalf of an exasperated fwend….

Fill yer boots

So you dig out an obscure thesis, ignore what it actually states try to rewrite post war history yourslef, Ernie. When Madame Edukator was writing her resistance history thesis she was very careful to write actual history and not to write a coloured version of it.

The author incorrectly uses the word “parallel” which misleads. They were not parallel, one stopped at the end of the war, another was started. Sure the same individuals were still doing similar jobs just like the police, mayors, factory workers, fonctionaires… but the difference was they were at the service of a democratic republic and not Vichy which was German controlled. Requests from Germany were orders not French initiatives. There were some Vichy initiatives such as the provision of labour for working on the Atlantic wall but it was mainly toeing the line. The link to the formation of the steel and coal union is mightily tenuous.

The 1951 coal and steel union was formed with Italy, Holland, Germany, Belgium and Luxemburg with the stated objective of avoiding a situation in which one country could dominate the production of armes. If you can’t see that international agreement has naff all to do with how steel and coal was oraganised during the occupation when the Germans were imposing their will you’re going down a conspiracy theory hole as you’re inclined to do.

I would like to remind STWers that although you are a French national your only contact with France that you have revealed on this forum is doing French national service. And that despite being one of the people most vunerable to Brexit you supported it which speaks volume about your understanding of European politics. In short you are speaking from and position of ignorance and desperately using a browser to find things that support your own very special version of world history. If you really want to understand the origins of the EU look to the Marshall plan and the US of A. First Gooogle result in English:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/06/17/the-eu-made-in-america

Madame Edukators thesis which I proof read multiple times was based on interviews with maquis (resistance) members and covered their political influence in the immediate post war period. A degree of continuity in the organisation of the country was inevitable and even disireable. The EU was not a Vichy derived organisation, it was a part of the international political moves to ensure a peaceful cooperation between European nations rather than conflict.

Good thread here on the current situation in France…..

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1801114239572328663

I would like to remind STWers that although you are a French national your only contact with France that you have revealed on this forum is doing French national service. And that despite being one of the people most vunerable to Brexit you supported it

Goodness me Ed the only person that goes on about my “Frenchness” is you, not me. It is totally irrelevant to this thread – people who have no claim at all to being French are also entitled to express an opinion you know!

And why the need to constantly “remind STWers” that I am opposed to the EU, I have already made that abundantly clear on this very page, do you think that it will help you somehow to “win” the argument?

Thanks for the history lesson above btw, here is a more detailed history lesson by The Society for the Study of French History:

French History @ IHR: Luc Brunet, ‘Industrial organisation and Franco-German integration from Vichy to the ECSC’

I have no idea why you have such a problem with the concept of Monnet using the example provided by wartime Organisation Committees as a blueprint for the Modernisation Commission it doesn’t make the EU “bad” because of that legacy, the idea was fully supported by the Resistance and the Communist Party – hardly fascist sympathizers! Is it because it is unthinkable to you that the far-right has provided any sort of legacy to European integration?

You wait until I tell you about the Union Movement……. it will blow your mind!😉

Btw Moseley lost the argument because postwar Britian still had an empire, the League of Empire Loyalists, for example, were very influential within the Tory Party, but he was smart enough to understand that the empire, and the continuing subjugation of brown and black people, had no future, and instead strength and the way forward would be through a united Europe. A white Christian Europe of course.

In short you are speaking from and position of ignorance

I doubt it’s ignorance. That would suggest innocence. Past posting on this fake far right origin of European integration and cooperation suggests he knows exactly what he’s doing. Just don’t bite, and ignore the anti EU conspiracy nonsense. Move on. It’s not worth it.

I don’t normally click Twitter/X but made an exception for that thread.

“These have undoubtedly been the wildest 72 hours in French politics in my lifetime. Pretty incredible stuff.”

Really profound, not. To be fair he’s very young and probably hasn’t taken much interest in politics for most of his years.

The Fillon affair, DSK,  Rainbow warrior, Sarkozy, Cahuzak… if you’re looking at scandal or 68-69, 81 or 2017 if you’re looking for significant political turnarounds.

I see you’re doubling down on your conspiracy bollocks, Ernie.

And you’re right, Kelvin

It’s a public forum, and Ernie has years of practice at winding people up and trashing politics threads. I remind him of his origins as it’s EU membership that enabled him to prosper in the UK, it gave him rights where he had none. Even the withdrawal agreement which has allowed him to remain in the UK was down to the persistance of Barnier/the EU. And what’s with not applying for British nationality, Ernie?

And most importantly who are you voting for in the French elections, Ernie? Because you definitely have a vote if you can be bothered to use it. Your euroscepticism limits your choice to some pretty unsavoury bed partners.

I’ve said I’m voting for Glucksman, and you ?

Is there method to Macron’s madness?

Yes, he’s already said that he won’t resign regardless of the outcome, so he’s safe in post until 2027

He can say that he attempted to sort out an assembly that’s frequently been at loggerheads since 2022

Politicians can enjoy the shortest possible time for chasing around the campaign trail

It’s all about the legacy