[Closed] Forget tuition fees, how expensive is Diesel now

Beneath contempt. Ignorant, stupid, selfish

This a good debate. I really don't see how this is going to change, people will still use their cars until they can not afford to do so, simple. When that happens then people will look for alternatives, which means the world will catch on and invent/produce something cheaper. We won't suddenly regress in to a world where everyone walks to work, or uses a non existent and financially unviable public transport system.

How do you think all those nice shiny bike parts are delivered? Will everyone accept that the price of bike parts, in fact everything not produced in the UK, will have to go up due to the massive rise in cost of transportation? It may mean we are riding around on £5K Orange 5's after a nice long walk to pick it up from Halifax 🙂
I will bet £10 that in £50 years time the cost of personal transport will still be mainly affordable after all the magical oil has gone 🙂

Jeremy, since a major part of what I do is study cheap energy alternatives, I can fairly comfortably say that, despite prices going up, we will have reasonably affordable energy. It just won't be carbon based.

But don't blame someone else when it is in fact you yourself who are part of the problem too. We all are.

This reminds me of that TomTom ad on billboards at the moment- the slogan is something like
[i]You're not stuck in traffic. You are traffic.[/i]
I always read it as something like
[i]You're not experiencing congestion. You are congestion.[/i]

which is probably not what they were going for

Mol - excellent post.

Thanks for reading. The thread's better when there aren't poison barbs flying around the place TANDEMJEREMY! 🙂

We live in a reasonably free society

An illusion.

Back on topic: I think that many cities could also do a lot more to help public transport. For example Cardiff badly needs concentric routes that go around the city rather than simply radial ones.

Jeremy, since a major part of what I do is study cheap energy alternatives, I can fairly comfortably say that, despite prices going up, we will have reasonably affordable energy. It just won't be carbon based

Amen!

Spokescycles - rubbish. it will not be cheap and plentiful. That is 100% certain.

Or does one first year undergrad know more than the rest of the worlds energy scientists put together?

What are you proposing?

Or does one first year undergrad know more than the rest of the worlds energy scientists put together?

Probably knows more than you about the subject though eh?

Si - I'd take a thousand pounds on that.

Personal transport as we know it will have to go. Its unsustainable and we will not have the energy to power it.

1st year? You really are on another planet.

Scotland in particular is excellently placed for renewable options, including-

geothermal (relatively cheap as no inputs at all- just fire water down into the lovely warm radioactive rock you have up there and it'll come up hot and turning turbines).

wind. (cheap enough, and improving year on year. just need to deal with the nimbys)

Hydroelectric (not cheap by current standards but will be in reach as oil reserves dwindle. again, needs some serious anti-nimby work)

Tidal/wave (Edinburgh is home of the developer of the world's best wave system, the Pelamis snake. This one of the lowest impact and most impressive future systems and has the lowest cost per kwh of any energy system, r+d costs excluded).

Solar (again, improving daily and excellently affordable personal energy with prices set to drop eventually).

The world's energy scientists are, actually, quite hopeful, and the cost of these technologies will drop relative to oil eventually. More will be developed and the existing ones will be massively more efficient.

Personal transport as we know it will have to go

If you mean the car powered by an internal combustion engine
Not in your, or my life-time it won't
& I even doubt in my kids life-time too

Heh.. Spokes - having the price of something drop RELATIVE to an alternative is not the same as having it actually drop!

Big big big difference!

Yep, but makes it relatively affordable. That and the costs will be going down relative to current costs for renewables so it'll keep us going quite nicely. There's no doubt it'll cost us more than it will now but not so much that we have to give up what we've got.

I think there are other problems with wind than just NIMBYs- unpredictability of supply being one.

That's not to say it's not a good thing though.

elf - i apologise, i was hoping to strike a happy balance between mockery/banter, and attempting to raise what i thought to be a valid point*.

i'm sorry.

(*if there is a problem with energy/resource consumption, then we're all part of it. yes, even you - future generations will only be able to dream about a lifestyle as 'rich' as yours, however modest it seems right now)

I work from home. Live in an urban area. Don't need a car to survive but life would be much more difficult without it. Try to minimise my carbon footprint but sometimes I am guilty of driving 4 miles to meet my friends for a ride. I have just read this thread and probably lost over an hour in productive work time. There is some vitriol on here. Most mountain bikers I meet get on really well. Not so here it seems! TJ - I am sure that we will find an alternative to oil (although I am no scientist) - if someone had told the avaerage person in the late 19th century man would visit the moon within a hundred years I'm sure they would have expressed similar disbelief to yours and our transport problems. Entertaining read thanks to all!!!!!

Spokes - I know a fair bit about these alternatives. I first met the chaps in charge of pelarmis ten years ago.

Serious question. How are you going to power cars with them? One that no one has been able to answer.

Hydrogen? Fuel cell?

Needs a lot of expensive rare earths,in the fuel cells, needs a so far impossible to engineer delivery and distribution system as well as being a massively inefficient way of using energy.

Electric? Batteries I say to you.

Supercompressed air? Again innefficeinces on a massive scale but actully has some potential for town transport. ?Very hard to get enough energy in a msall enough space

This is the issue. Its getting the amount of energy in a portable form and avoiding a conversion from one form to another. Running cars on hydrogen is hideously inefficient. Wind converted to electric used to crack water to produce hydrogen to make electricity to provide movement. Inefficiencies at every stage

So what tech are you going to use to power cars?

I am sure that we will find an alternative to oil (although I am no scientist) - if someone had told the avaerage person in the late 19th century man would visit the moon within a hundred years I'm sure they would have expressed similar disbelief to yours and our transport problems.

Thing is you can't just assume some magic fairy dust will come along to sort things out given enough time. There are also lots of things people (just after the moon landings, say) assumed would have happened/been invented yet that haven't and don't look like they will in the near future- manned missions to Mars, anyone?

It's not necessarily just a question of science solving everything given enough time or motivation. There are some hard limits to things.

MrSalmon

Thing is you can't just assume some magic fairy dust will come along to sort things out given enough time. There are also lots of things people (just after the moon landings, say) assumed would have happened/been invented yet that haven't

Yeh. where's my hoverbike. I was promised a hoverbike

Yep, but makes it relatively affordable

Where'd you get that logic from?

If diesel suddenly went up to £100 a gallon then we'd be stuffed. If biodiesel was £80 we'd still be stuffed!

Most mountain bikers I meet get on really well

You would with these people too. Internet forums do something strange to people's minds 🙂

if someone had told the avaerage person in the late 19th century man would visit the moon within a hundred years I'm sure they would have expressed similar disbelief to yours and our transport problems

Doubtful. Back then they believed that technology would solve every problem and the world was theirs to exploit. D'oh!

Re TJ - in my view, the alternative energy sources most likely to replace fossil fuels and continue enabling mass personal transport in the future would be battery electric vehicles powered by nuclear power or hydrogen fuel cell powered by hydrogen extraced with nuclear or renewable energy sources.

So perhaps massive H generating plants powered by volcanoes and piped all over the world. Iceland, Italy, Greece, Cornwall etc etc would become the new energy rich nations. It would have significant technical problems though since the energy density of H is very low and perhaps more importantly the value is negligible since you can't make plastics from it etc etc.

Oh almost forgot - cellulosic ethanol produced on a local scale is another option.

Not saying I would LIKE to see mass personal transportation continue on the current scale mind...

I have a few gallons of ethanol if anyone's stuck 🙂

[url= http://world.honda.com/automobile/index.html ]World Honda [/url]

Honda are putting a lot of effort into alternative fuels so much so I think they're considering dropping diesels soon.

They've come up with some pretty clever ways of producing hydrogen too, like a central heating boiler for your home that as a byproduct produces hydrogen for your car. But i think they're big vision is stand alone solar fuel stations but then who's going to pay for all that.......

Honda don't make those diesel engines anyway.

But i think they're big vision is stand alone solar fuel stations but then who's going to pay for all that.......

£20k for a car, or £30k for a car that fuels itself.. hmm let me think.. 🙂

OMFG! Check out the video on that Honda link of their little robots showing people around and serving drinks at a press launch!

THAT'S THE COOLEST THING I HAVE EVER SEEN!!

Honda don't make those diesel engines anyway.

Only non Honda diesel engines I know of aren't very current?

I thought that was made by Suzuki but I could be wrong.

Still - little walking robots serving drinks! Who cares about diesel engines!

The current 2.2 idtec and the previous ictdi are Honda.

But if you are unlucky enough to own a previous gen 1.7 civic that'll be an isuzu/vauxhall engine urgghh.

I suppose if they actually ever need to make some money they could mount some guns to an asimo.....

DYK, the Diesel engine was invented before Diesel fuel.

Also, TJ really is coming across as a massive plonker.

ASIMO rules!

Come on guys. Oil is running out. What is the fuel to run the car of the future?

In my post above I listed the three likeliest at the moment. All with massive disadvantages compared to what we have now.

Electric - battery limitations. We simply cannot get enough energy in a small enough space / weight.

Hydrogen - infrastructure to distribute it. Its a whole load more difficult that gas or petrol. Massive inefficiencies. 1 kw of elec will not give 1/10th of that as usable power in the car.

Supercompressed air - range.

This is not some minor technical issue. This is fundamental and even if solved it will be an expensive solution.

Teh only answer is to plan for this now - and move our society in the direction where energy is more sensibly used.

I think that battery technology is one area that could keep on improving in the future.

Hydrogen distribution is difficult - as I said in my post.

I think they will come up with a solution to either battery capacity, biofuel creation or hydrogen distribution that would be JUST enough to meet our needs IF we radically cut down on wasteful transport as TJ and the rest of us say.

Molgrips - energy density is the key.

Not only that - crude oil has tons more uses besides motor fuel... Think how many companies have a stake in each tanker load of fuel.

Juan, Elfin and TJ's "no cars ever" (though Elfin is taking the softer "no cars in teh city" approach)

The way I see it in about 20 year times, you'll either have a car and be part of the 5% of the people in the first world to be able to afford one (and a house, a boat, a jet and education for your kids) or you will be living at the opposite end of the scale. Cars will be a symbol of social achievement. Sorry I mean they will be even more a symbol of social achievement. It's too late to change that. Car and petrol lobbies have the world hanging by the danglers (les couilles). They are going to raise prices of petrol as much as possible and they will skin most of people dry. Once done, with their friends the car makers they will release something new that will still make them richer. Most of people will not be able to afford it, hence the car going to be even more reflective of money (and maybe just maybe power).

While stuck at uni, I thought things much differently, but now that I am more in the real world (with non academic people) I think we are just ****ed up. Ninety percent of the people see the car as being representative of what you are. So I can't see things change. Far from it.

geothermal (relatively cheap as no inputs at all- just fire water down into the lovely warm radioactive rock you have up there and it'll come up hot and turning turbines).

wind. (cheap enough, and improving year on year. just need to deal with the nimbys)

Hydroelectric (not cheap by current standards but will be in reach as oil reserves dwindle. again, needs some serious anti-nimby work)

Tidal/wave (Edinburgh is home of the developer of the world's best wave system, the Pelamis snake. This one of the lowest impact and most impressive future systems and has the lowest cost per kwh of any energy system, r+d costs excluded).

Solar (again, improving daily and excellently affordable personal energy with prices set to drop eventually).

What are your thoughts on piezo-electric and say osmosis for example?
Efficiency of existing plant must be optimsed sooner rather than later. The EPC and DECs have been laughed off of the field by all but the dumbest, the CRC EE scheme has just turned into a tax and the govt needs to do more to ensure that companies aren't wasteful with energy.

Once done, with their friends the car makers they will release something new that will still make them richer. Most of people will not be able to afford it

How will they get rich selling something that virtually nobody can afford to buy? Wouldn't they get richer by selling stuff to the masses too?

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I understand that there is likely to be footfall harvesting at the 2012 Olympics using piezo electrics.
Anyone read Kim Stanley Robinson's Pacific Edge for a possibility of one future.

PV can work but is not even in the slightest bit suited to the UK.

No? I reckon there's in the order of 10^18 J of solar energy incident to the entire UK, and our total energy consumption would be of the order of 10^19 (according to various internetty type figures). So you're right 🙂

I may have lost count of those exponents and dropped a 10^3 multiplier somewhere tho 🙂

Wouldn't they get richer by selling stuff to the masses too?

That's what a certain Mr Ford discovered way back.

Edinburgh is home of the developer of the world's best wave system, the Pelamis snake. This one of the lowest impact and most impressive future systems and has the lowest cost per kwh of any energy system, r+d costs excluded

Hi Spokes, very interested in this. Is there any published data to show the cost of energy for Pelamis? Did you mean [u]any[/u] energy system or just any renewable energy system?

http://www.pelamiswave.com/

Its a good sytem pelarmis. There is a small set up off portugal that has run for a year or two - one is going in off shetland next year.

Its a good wave energy generator and has some good advantages. Its highly modular if some highly stresssed components so should be cheap and easy to build and maintain in large quantities and so far seems reliable. It looks very hopeful but its still early days - I want to see it survive a couple of winters off Scotland yet.

Long way from powering cars with it tho

bump for teh glitch

It's interesting that this debate has focused on the cost aspect of mass personal transport. If a new alternative, clean fuel is developed that is as useful as the current liquid hydrocarbons we'll still have the problems with congestion. Somethings got to give, no amount of technology, rephasing of traffic lights or similar will enable the road network to cope with every single occupant of UK having their own vehicle and having the "freedom" to use it as they want.

We're all going to have some interesting choices to make...