F1 2021 – spoilers here

thols2
Free Member

Merc have years of data on how Bottas compares to Hamilton. Their opinion is the only thing that matters. They seem to hold him in fairly high regard and respect him.

Which is presumably why they have ditched him as soon as they have a competitor with two drivers performing well and a championship capable car? 😉

but that doesn’t explain how he put up absolutely no defence to Max

Do you honestly think that a driver as good as Bottas would “just let” MV through out of spite or something? or that he’s not a good enough driver, despite routinely finishing 2nd to perhaps the GOAT of F1? seriously?

There’s no doubt set up/car characteristics didn’t help Bottas gain ground compared to Max. Max had a full on low-downforce set up specifically to help overtake. But that’s not really the point many are making. The point is, other drivers would have made that Mercedes as wide as the Atlantic Ocean to keep Max behind. Valterri made it look like a puddle, let alone an ocean! Yes he is quick, yes on his day he can win races, but he could, and should, have done so much more to keep Verstappen behind and car set up has nothing to do that at all. If anything, handling difficulties should make it easier to keep him behind!

Is this the same Bottas that wiped out Max in Hungary?

Which is presumably why they have ditched him

No, they took a long time over the decision to replace him, they aren’t sacking him because they’re unhappy with his performance.

nickc

Do you honestly think that a driver as good as Bottas would “just let” MV through out of spite or something? or that he’s not a good enough driver, despite routinely finishing 2nd to perhaps the GOAT of F1? seriously?

Come on mate, look at the overtake on youtube. It looked like bottas had been given blue flags the way he let Max past.

 It looked like bottas had been given blue flags the way he let Max past.

Bottas is on the racing line, he can’t come off that line because if he does the car isn’t going to go around the corner that’s coming up, he might make the first bend, then it’ll go straight on because the car won’t turn in like MV ‘s will. and if he does come off that line, MV will just go around him regardless. The RB is much much faster, not only has it got the low drag advantage, he’s also got DRS. His car is something like 20-25kph faster then Bottas’ car at the point of overtake. Bottas isn’t going to hold him up at that point, There’s no F1 driver that would’ve been able to without a collision and that just isn’t going to happen.

I think I’m on safe ground when I suggest that I don’t think Bottas just said, “Ah, balls to it” 😂

nickc

The 2021 Merc. is not the all-conquering beast that it has been in years past, it’s compromised and struggles in traffic. Hence the reason MV can slice through the traffic (and the Aston martins as well for that matter, check out how many overtakes Vettel has done this year) and the likes of Bottas and Hamilton can’t run close enough in traffic to pass cars that are slower (in theory) than they are. It’s the same reason Hamilton struggled to get past the Mclaren as Bottas failed to get through the field. The car loses grip and slows down…

But none of that has anything to do with letting Max through at the earliest opportunity while Max was behind him – nothing to do with struggling to follow while in other cars’ dirty air.
He could have held a more defensive line into the corner, but just took the normal racing line out wide & let Verstappen steam up the inside.
You could argue that it would have been a futile effort & that Max would have got past only a short way further up the road – and that is probably true – but he didn’t even try to defend from Max at the first time of asking.

He could have held a more defensive line into the corner,

He didn’t have enough grip, he wouldn’t have got around the corner.

nickc

Bottas is on the racing line, he can’t come off that line because if he does the car isn’t going to go around the corner that’s coming up, he might make the first bend, then it’ll go straight on because the car won’t turn in like MV ‘s will. and if he does come off that line, MV will just go around him regardless. The RB is much much faster, not only has it got the low drag advantage, he’s also got DRS. His car is something like 20-25kph faster then Bottas’ car at the point of overtake. Bottas isn’t going to hold him up at that point, There’s no F1 driver that would’ve been able to without a collision and that just isn’t going to happen.

I think I’m on safe ground when I suggest that I don’t think Bottas just said, “Ah, balls to it” 😂

Imagine the positions are swapped, Max is in the Merc, Bottas behind in the RB.

Is Bottas overtaking Max? I think not. The Merc when driven by max would be 20 foot wide.

nickc

He didn’t have enough grip, he wouldn’t have got around the corner.

Eh?!
Perhaps; although I don’t believe you can know that for sure – or maybe you are part of Bottas’ engineering team?

But, he would have known Max was approaching & could have taken a defensive line earlier on the approach to the corner specifically to block a lunge from Max. Drivers do it all the time; some for several laps.
Yes, it might have (would have) compromised his exit & Max might have out-dragged him right away but at least he would have been trying to defend & the outcome was the same anyway so he might as well have given it a go.

He didn’t have enough grip, he wouldn’t have got around the corner.

That’s how defensive lines work – compromise line, compromise speed through the turn, at least delay the pass 1 more corner. Doesn’t matter how much grip you’ve got when you’re always driving to the limit of adhesion on the normal line anyway

Is Bottas overtaking Max? I think not.

Because MV will just cause a crash and will sulk all the way back to the pits? So you’re essentially saying MV managed the overtake because Bottas isn’t a pouty little brat…seems legit.

BTW, Russell also had a rep in the lower formulas for being a bit crash happy in the same way the MV is, ie “I’m here; either back off or we’ll crash” It’ll be interesting to see how that goes down with Mercedes.

 so he might as well have given it a go.

Genius,.

nickc

Genius,.

👍
Thanks!! 😂

nickc

Because MV will just cause a crash and will sulk all the way back to the pits? So you’re essentially saying MV managed the overtake because Bottas isn’t a pouty little brat…seems legit.

ffs 😂

no i’m saying max would have defended the position, as opposed to what bottas did which, if it wasn’t in protest at merc taking a tactical engine penalty, then was just shite racing.

Anyway, have we done this?

This is how you do it Valteri https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QI8litf5a2s

^^^
90’s BTCC was awesome!

Anyway, have we done this?

The list of openly despotic regimes that host F1 races is just beyond embarrassing now. It’s like they did a mail shot to every autocratic dictator.

“Are you a despotic autocratic dictator who likes to torture political dissidents? Have you thought about hosting  an F1 race to sport-wash your regime?”

These murderous bastards have and see what they have to say…

Yes, also the track layout looks naff, although I hear they may be doing a street circuit too.

90’s BTCC was awesome!

One of Murray’s very best quotes in that one, too 🙂

“I’m going for 1st says Cleland” 😀 Supertouring era BTCC rocked.

Back slightly on topic I couldn’t understand why Merc took an engine swap rather than let VB defend further up the field in a better position to score points anyway TBH

I couldn’t understand why Merc took an engine swap rather than let VB defend further up the field in a better position to score points anyway

Maybe Bottas’ engine really did have a problem and it wasn’t a cunning plan to mess up Verstappen. As George Carlin said, “Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.”

https://twitter.com/inzdrapp/status/1444733598729396228

We did the GB rally for years, some fantastic memories.

Absolute balls out driving. Nothing more exhilarating than walking along a quiet forest stage and seconds later scrambling for safety as a car comes through completely sideways at 100mph+.

Completely stolen from twitter

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS BY 2030:

Lewis Hamilton =
Max Verstappen =
Charles Leclerc =
Lando Norris =
George Russell =
Daniel Ricciardo =
Carlos Sainz =

Here is mine

Lewis Hamilton = 9
Max Verstappen = 3
Charles Leclerc = 1
Lando Norris = 0
George Russell = 2
Daniel Ricciardo = 0
Carlos Sainz = 0
Pierre Gasly = 1

Would be more interesting if you put which team you thought those drivers would have won them with.

Mine.

Lewis Hamilton = 8 Merc
Max Verstappen = 2 RB
Charles Leclerc = 1 Ferrari
Lando Norris = 1 Merc
George Russell = 1 x Merc, 1 x McLaren
Daniel Ricciardo = 0
Carlos Sainz = 0

Would be more interesting if you put which team you thought those drivers would have won them with.

Good point

Lewis Hamilton = 9 Merc
Max Verstappen = 3 RB
Charles Leclerc = 1 Ferr
Lando Norris = 0
George Russell = 2 Merc
Daniel Ricciardo = 0
Carlos Sainz = 0
Pierre Gasly = 1 Ferr

Can’t see Hamilton winning another championship, although I do like to see records being broken in sport.

I can’t be arsed making random guesses about years in the future. I think it’s better to look at how well resourced the teams are to get some idea of who will do well under the new regs and then look at how their current drivers compare. I think five teams currently have the resources to potentially challenge for championships in the next few years: Merc, Red Bull, Ferrari, Renault, and McLaren. I think the others will take several years before they can even get to McLaren’s level, let alone Merc.

Merc and Red Bull are extremely well resourced, with top class aero departments and simulation. Their engines seem to be very equal, but Merc will probably bring an upgrade for next year, whereas Honda have probably introduced everything they have. I think those two teams have to be considered joint favorites for the next few years. I’m going to say 2/3 chance that one of those teams will win for each of the next few years, so 33% chance each.

Including this year, that would give Verstappen about an 85% chance of at least one championship by the end of 2024, assuming he isn’t challenged by a teammate.

Hamilton will probably retire at the end of 2023 and will have a very fast young teammate, I’ll rate them as equal, so Hamilton has a 50% chance of a title this year and 17% for the next two years. That gives Hamilton about 65% chance of another title before he retires, including this year.

Russell should have a decent advantage over whoever replaces Hamilton for the first year of their pairing. That gives him roughly a 50% chance of a title by the end of 2024.

Ferrari have excellent facilities but management issues have left them a long way behind and their engine is weak. Next year’s engine will be improved, but it’s hard to see it getting ahead of the Merc engine. Renault are in a similar situation. McLaren have an excellent engine but it will take several years for their new windtunnel and simulator to come online. I’ll rate those three teams as equal, so an 11% chance of winning a title. All three have strong driver pairings. It’s impossible to know how the drivers will adapt to the new cars, so I’ll just rate them all as equal pairings. That would give each of those drivers about a 15% chance of winning a championship by 2024, assuming Alonso doesn’t retire, in which case Ocon’s odds would improve a lot.

So, odds of winning at least one championship between now and the end of 2024:
Verstappen 85%
Hamilton 65%
Russell 50%
The Ferrari, McLaren, and Renault drivers 15% each.

I can’t be arsed providing a short answer so I’ll give a really long one instead

😀 😀

Can’t really argue with any of it though. Despite the regulation changes its hard to see past Merc or Red Bull for the next few years.

Although both Merc and RB are ahead because their MGU-H systems work really well, and those are going away soon with new rule changes, so you have to factor in that as well (due in 2026)

And the possibility of one of the VAG brands joining in. Could be fun times ahead

And the possibility of one of the VAG brands joining in. Could be fun times ahead

If they join as a brand new manufacturer then happy days – I’m more inclined to think they’ll just take over the engines from Red Bull in a rebadging exercise. So we’ll still have the same number of engine suppliers. Honda may have some intellectual rights clauses though.

If they join as a brand new manufacturer then happy days – I’m more inclined to think they’ll just take over the engines from Red Bull in a rebadging exercise.

They won’t join until the new engine regulations take effect. The current engines will be scrapped and everyone will have to start again from a clean sheet of paper. Honda own the IP to the current Red Bull engine so Red Bull can’t just hand that over to someone else. On top of that, VW and Porsche aren’t going to pay someone else to build engines for them, they will want to do it in-house.

andrewh

Free Member

This is how you do it Valteri https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QI8litf5a2s

This is amazing!!

On top of that, VW and Porsche aren’t going to pay someone else to build engines for them, they will want to do it in-house.

Mercedes paid Ilmor to build their engines for many years, then bought the company!

I can easily see Red Bull trying to palm their newly acquired engine division off to VAG.

I can easily see Red Bull trying to palm their newly acquired engine division off to VAG.

If Honda have any sense they’ve already precluded that as part of the deal to allow RBR to continue to use their designs.

I can easily see Red Bull trying to palm their newly acquired engine division off to VAG.

VW sell about 10 million cars per year and make about $1000 profit per vehicle, so about $10 billion in profit. Their profit is about twice what Red Bull does in turnover, but Red Bull’s product is basically caffeinated sugar water, so most of their costs are marketing and they are incredibly profitable. However, they have the best aerodynamics department in F1. VW don’t need a Red Bull engine, they have the resources and engineers to build engines, the only thing Red Bull have is Adrian Newey and a first-class aero department.

Qatar own quite a bit of VW shares as well, and they’ve just signed a deal for what, 10 years of racing? I’d imagine a favourable change of engine spec was part of the negotiation.