European Referendum…

Well, CallmeDave has let the cat out of Pandora’s box and given us a pledge of an in/out referendum in the next parliament if the Tories get back in…

Has he just cinched the 2015 election by winning back the UKIP deserters?

Or is it just a sham, whereby we’ll get the choice between Dave’s ‘third way’ new relationship or financial suicide by pulling out of the EEA as well?

could be wrong, but the last i heard, there was a strong trend for a ‘in’ vote, if presented with a simple choice.

so, my guess:

he’ll have clawed back lots of the ukip voters, to help him in the next GE, but lots of them will die before they get to vote in the referendum, so he shouldn’t worry too much about an ‘out’ vote in any referendum.

(the only ukip voters i know are old, and not in possession of fully loaded bag of marbles, i doubt they’ll get younger or sharper in the next 5 years…)

Has he just cinched the 2015 election by winning back the UKIP deserters?

The swivel eyed lunatics aren’t UKIP. They’re his own backbenchers. And they’re wagging the dog at the moment, and loving every minute of it! What is it about Tories and their self-destruct button over Europe.

What was quite interesting was that the speech was clearly more directed at the EU audience than it was at the British Electorate. So the the choices are

1) In the EU – but on radically renegotiated terms of EU membership
b) Out

Thats it. What he didn’t actually say, so what is therefore not being considered an option is

c) The status quo

So its sending out the main message that things need to change in Brussels. And that’s no bad thing really. The bunch of complacent incompetents. The present EU set-up is like a particularly crap local council, but on an epic, money-spanking level.

They need a rocket up ’em! I’m certainly no fan of Dave, but at least he’s trying to do that, rather than pull out of Europe. I don’t think thats what he’s after here at all!

It’s at least 3 years of financial uncertainty which is probably not the best thing if you’re trying to shore up a failing economy and claw your way out of a recession.

Appears to be a case of doing what gives him the best shot at winning the next election rather than what would be the best thing to do for the country.

Anyone hear that rattling sound?

That’d be Dave rolling his last set of dice for 2015.

The problem with referenda like this is that you’re asking a generally ill-informed public an overly simplified question about a hugely complex subject.

But, to be honest, anyone who thinks that a small island nation would be better off outside the largest free-trade agreement on the planet is, frankly, nuts.

Britain’s constant knicker-twisting over Europe is second only to STW’s over the Classifieds.

I agree with you Bravisimo. The referendum is an act of utter and complete desperation.

Imagine how depressed you’d feel though. About to lose a popularity contest with Ed Milliband!!! 😆

Appears to be a case of doing what gives him the best shot at winning the next election rather than what would be the best thing to do for the country.

Yep – all about keeping bigoted little back benchers and UKIP supporters onside.

I consider his announcement a bad thing as it creates uncertainty, which is exactly not what we need in a time of economic difficulty.

Three simple points from CMD:

(1) the problems in the Eurozone are driving fundamental change in Europe [true]

(2) there is a crisis of European competitiveness, as other nations across the world soar ahead [true]

(3) there is a gap between the EU and its citizens which has grown dramatically in recent years. And which represents a lack of democratic accountability…[true]

…If we don’t address these challenges, the danger is that Europe will fail and the British people will drift towards the exit [discuss]

So what kind or Europe does he want?

“So let me set out my vision for a new European Union, fit for the 21st century. It is built on five principles:”

(1) competitiveness.
(2) flexibility.
(3) power must be able to flow back to Member States, not just away from them
(4) democratic accountability: we need to have a bigger and more significant role for national parliaments.
(5) fairness: whatever new arrangements are enacted for the Eurozone, they must work fairly for those inside it and out.

Pretty sound IMO. Agree with the issue of uncertainty being unwelcome, but the very fact that the EU remains in dire straits is creating an even bigger problem for all. Perhaps, out of crisis, we may see a positive result and the necessary reforms. But I will not hold my breath!

#hands out guns to Englanders so they can shoot themselves in the feet#

So maybe Europe does need an overhaul so Googles pays its tax where it really makes its profits, it’s still better to fight from within for that.

thm – I listened to the full speech, and though I loath the bloke with a passion, everything he was proposing (as you’ve listed above) sounded perfectly sensible and reasonable to me. Desirable even!

How anyone can look at the present EU shambles and think that’s either sustainable or desirable is utterly beyond me. But I’m sure Junkyard ill be along shortly 😆

Binners – I only read it and I am largely agnostic about CMD (he remains an enigma to me!) but I agree with you and you earlier comments. Looking forward to the reactions too!! I am sure the words, “doth protest too much” will come to mind!!! 😉

(More fun watching Fed vs Tsonga and reading speech at the same time in my break!)

Its also going to be interesting what the reliably useless labour party have to say too. As he’s now firmly put a EU referendum on the political timetable. So given that labour aren’t going to have any kind of parliamentary majority, even if they win the next election, this isn’t going to go away.

Not least because there are enough anti-European backbenchers in the labour ranks too. The lib dems are pro EU but there will be none of those left after the next election.

The lines are drawn then – Ed Miliband from PMQ’s:

“My position is no – We don’t want an in out referendum”

Personally, I don’t think for one minute that the UK population will vote ‘out’, and I think Dave and the rest of the ‘in’ camp know this – what the vast majority of people would vote for is a reversion to what we originally opted into, a free trade agreement, without the political harmonisation we’ve been drawn into, but that’s why we’ll never get that choice – however the point made above about the ultimatum to our European partners, our way or the highway, is a valid one, as they know that we are a significant net contributor.

CMD knows that the only way to win a majority is the same as it was for Blair, to tempt ‘Mondeo Man’ to universally vote for them.

He reckons he’s on the money with the EU issues on this, he could be right. It’ll always please the right of the Tory party but – on the whole – those votes are safe anyway.

In a sane world Cameron would be voted out in 2015, if the coalition lasts that long. But remember how the tories in the 1980s were re-elected despite having brutal economic policies. Why should a referrendum be a once and for all choice? If parliaments must renew their legitimacy after a certain period of time, why not have referrenda every five years as to whether or not the UK should remain a memebr of the EU, NATO, The UN, IMF, and all of the other supranational organisations that we find ourselves beholden to, despite our having never given them our democratic mandate?

Why, we could even have regular elections to the second chamber of parliament, or even have an elected Head of State, rather than the position being awarded based on hereditary accidents of birth…

I wonder what Cleggy will do?

He’ll act exactly the same way that he did over tuition fees. He’s a dead man walking…

If parliaments must renew their legitimacy after a certain period of time, why not have referrenda every five years as to whether or not the UK should remain a memebr of the EU, NATO, The UN, IMF, and all of the other supranational organisations that we find ourselves beholden to, despite our having never given them our democratic mandate?

Like I said, the problem with referenda like these is that you’re asking a generally ill-informed public overly simplified questions about a hugely complex subjects.

The point of a parliamentary democracy like ours is that we elect representatives who are (theoretically) better placed and advised to make these decisions for us. No-one I know for example, and I include myself in this, would have the slightest understanding of whether or not we’re better off in or out of the IMF.

The eu is something bigger than the structure it’s built on. Once the rich countries helped the poor now the poor help the poorer while trying to prop everything else up.

Free trade and common market is good.
Harmonised finance in a massively mismatched continent may not be good.

Empires worked as there was 1 ruler. The eu has more leaders than followers all trying to piss further up the wall.

I suspect [rather than know] we could do without the UN though

“show of hands, that’s 120 in favour, 1 against, the one against has a veto so not carried”

Totally disregard any resolutions if you don’t like them – what’s the point?

sorry, I’ll let it go back OT now 🙂

And I’m fairly sure schrodinger put the cat in the box and he’d never been near Pandora’s

The other issue I’d take with this approach is that he appears to be trying to force the hand of the other member states into acting favourably to his renegotiation by using the threat of a UK withdrawal from the EU as a bargaining chip.

Can’t imagine that the other member states will take kindly to such a heavy handed approach and given our recent history of acting as the whiney little cousin of mainland Europe I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they weren’t happy enough to see us go our own way.

I’m disappointed he’s ruled out draining the Channel.

My concern with Daves proposal is that returning powers to the UK reduces the amount of democracy that we have.

The problem is we dont have a democracy.

We only get to vote for one of the 2 chambers that make up Parliament
We dont get to vote for who is Prime Minister. That is decided by their pary, not the electorate who only get to vote for a local MP
We dont get to vote for our head of state.

Hardly a model of democracy is it?

How’s that Chris? Assuming your criticisms of democracy in the Uk are correct (not sure!) apply your same standards to Europe and then explain the reducing democracy argument?

Kinnock was an EU big wig. No one EVER voted for him.

Don’t follow that, can you expand on how democracy would be reduced ? How does the man in the street influence EU decision making currently ?

Hardly a model of democracy is it?

It’s a model of parliamentary democracy made up of representatives of the people elected on a regional basis.

We dont get to vote for who is Prime Minister. That is decided by their pary, not the electorate who only get to vote for a local MP

You vote for a local MP as that is the point of the election – who would you like to represent you (and your local interests) in the national parliament. However the irony of this is that although people should vote for a local MP they actually vote for the party of the person who they want to be PM.

We only get to vote for one of the 2 chambers that make up Parliament

If we voted for both they’d essentially be the same – what’s the point in that?

Europe is normally the Achilles heel that spells doom for Tory leaders. It will be an interesting test for Cameron’s leadership and political skills to see if he is the first modern Tory who can make Europe work for him. I have an inking that he might, largely because the European politicians are doing a remarkable job at self-destruction at the same time.

I also believe that there are many pro-Europe but not pro-status quo Europeans (if that makes sense?) who will be very willing to let him fight their cause allowing them to remain hidden behind the parapets. Quite fitting really.

A referendum following a 2015 election victory – say 2017 – is going to put it right in the middle of the mess that negotiations following a Scottish Independence ‘yes’ vote would spawn.

I also believe that there are many pro-Europe but not pro-status quo Europeans

Well put. +1

It certainly makes the Scottish debate more intriguing!

I have an inking that he might, largely because the European politicians are doing a remarkable job at self-destruction at the same time

well at least you will stop telling us how doomed the Euro is for a few weeks whilst you criticisie the leaders

Seems a political gesture to make him electable via the closet racists vote rather than anything to do with principles.

As for the mexican stand off with the EU he is slightly outnumbered and i suspect a number would rather we leave than make a dogs dinner of a two speed Europe where we sit on the side and just call them all names

Tories and Europe is one of the funniest sights in politics

Could we not have the Scottish vote and the EU one at the same time so we can watch folk defend the UK union whilst attacking the EU one. They like unions as long as they dictate the terms I suspect the EU is rather tired of this tbh just like the Scots.

Like I said, the problem with referenda like these is that you’re asking a generally ill-informed public overly simplified questions about a hugely complex subjects.

Couldn’t agree more.

The way the debate around benefits was dumbed down to “strivers vs skivers” was awful.

I wonder how much of this will come up in the debate around Europe..?
http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/communication/take_part/myths_en.htm

At the end of the day, pontificating is one thing. Voting for it is another thing entirely. The Scottish aren’t going to vote for independence. They’ve more sense. Turkeys voting for Christmas. Us leaving the EU. That ain’t going to happen either. For the same reason.

The EU, despite Dave’s sabre-rattling, probably know this too. It’ll be interesting to see what happens if they tell him to eff off with his renegotiation. Which is actually quite probable! In which case, its the status quo or out!

Which is an awful lot different from what Dave’s presenting the choice as this morning

Well JY, the future of the euro and the future of the current EU structure are completely and inversely related. So happy to leave that to the EU politicians themselves. I think the downtrodden workers in S Europe will also be able to talk for themselves in the end.

Bless you for your concern for the down trodden workers you socilaist you 😉

WTF is it with Europe

Binners agreeing with Dave , you speaking up for the Workers
How does it do this to people?

JY – In which European countries do you presently think that a vote would deliver a ringing endorsement of the present EU structure?

The whole thing is an absolute shambles! An expensive one. Its desperately in need of reform. It always amuses me listening to full on lefties like yourself defending possibly the most democratically unaccountable organisation outside North Korea

You missed the bit about left-wingers arguing for a system that forces massive reductions in the wages of its citizens under terms (and sometimes power) of non-elected technocrats!! 😉

You are correct, how does it do this to people?